We present an advance bubble detection methodology based on the Log Periodic Power Law Singularity (LPPLS) confidence indicator for the early causal identification of positive and negative bubbles in the Chinese stock market using the daily data on the Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 stock market index from January 2002 thro…
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In the past decade, Bitcoin as an emerging asset class has gained widespread public attention because of their extraordinary returns in phases of extreme price growth and their unpredictable massive crashes. We apply the log-periodic power law singularity (LPPLS) confidence indicator as a diagnostic tool for identifyin…
TDA detects financial bubbles through early warning signals.
problem Detecting financial bubbles early.
method Using Log-Periodic Power Law Singularity (LPPLS) model to fit financial time series data.
result TDA generates early warning signals when LPPLS model fits the data.
We develop a methodology for detecting asset bubbles using a neural network. We rely on the theory of local martingales in continuous-time and use a deep network to estimate the diffusion coefficient of the price process more accurately than the current estimator, obtaining an improved detection of bubbles. We show the…
The paper examines Indian market bubbles using financial ratios.
problem Detecting bubbles in emerging markets like India is challenging.
method Utilizes financial ratios and the Philips et al 2015 right-tailed unit test.
result Identifies various bubble episodes in the Indian market.
The paper uses deep learning to detect asset price bubbles in tech stocks.
problem Detecting financial asset price bubbles using deep learning.
method Deep learning techniques applied to call option prices for financial asset bubbles detection.
result The proposed deep learning algorithm provides a theoretical foundation for positive and continuous stochastic asset price processes.
Evidence of Fueling of the 2000 New Economy Bubble by Foreign Capital Inflow: Implications for the Future of the US Economy and its Stock Marketcond-mat.stat-mech
Previous analyses of a large ensemble of stock markets have demonstrated that a log-periodic power law (LPPL) behavior of the prices constitutes a qualifying signature of speculative bubbles that often land with a crash. We detect such a LPPL signature in the foreign capital inflow during the bubble on the US markets c…
A new model detects financial bubbles with high accuracy.
problem Quantifying and detecting financial bubbles.
method Hyped Log-Periodic Power Law Model (HLPPL) with sentiment scores and hype index.
result Achieved an average annualized return of 34.13% during backtesting.
Study detects endogenous bubbles in meme stocks using CI.
problem Detecting endogenous bubbles in meme stocks.
method Used Log-Periodic Power Law (LPPL) Confidence Indicator (CI).
result CI detected numerous bubbles in meme stocks but struggled with predicting exogenous rallies.
By combining (i) the economic theory of rational expectation bubbles, (ii) behavioral finance on imitation and herding of investors and traders and (iii) the mathematical and statistical physics of bifurcations and phase transitions, the log-periodic power law model has been developed as a flexible tool to detect bubbl…
There is a growing concern in recent years over the potential formation of bubbles in the Chinese real estate market. This paper aims to conduct a series of bubble diagnostic analysis over nine representative Chinese cities from two aspects. First, we investigate whether the prices had been significantly deviating from…
Speculative bubbles have been occurring periodically in local or global real estate markets and are considered a potential cause of economic crises. In this context, the detection of explosive behaviors in the financial market and the implementation of early warning diagnosis tests are of critical importance. The recen…
In this study, we perform a novel analysis of the 2015 financial bubble in the Chinese stock market by calibrating the Log Periodic Power Law Singularity (LPPLS) model to two important Chinese stock indices, SSEC and SZSC, from early 2014 to June 2015. The back tests of the 2015 Chinese stock market bubbles indicates t…
Cryptocurrency Bubble Detection: A New Stock Market Dataset, Financial Task & Hyperbolic Modelscs.CL
New dataset and models detect cryptocurrency bubbles using social media data.
problem Detecting anomalous market behavior in cryptocoins and meme stocks.
method Developed a novel multi-span identification task and sequence-to-sequence hyperbolic models.
result Models effectively detect cryptocoins and meme stocks bubbles in zero-shot settings.
We present a detailed bubble analysis of the Bitcoin to US Dollar price dynamics from January 2012 to February 2018. We introduce a robust automatic peak detection method that classifies price time series into periods of uninterrupted market growth (drawups) and regimes of uninterrupted market decrease (drawdowns). In …
Study predicts market bubbles using machine learning and financial news sentiment.
problem Predicting market bubbles in the S&P 500 index.
method Three-step approach combining financial news sentiment and macroeconomic indicators.
result Proposed three-step ensemble approach significantly improves bubble prediction accuracy.
Financial markets are well known for their dramatic dynamics and consequences that affect much of the world's population. Consequently, much research has aimed at understanding, identifying and forecasting crashes and rebounds in financial markets. The Johansen-Ledoit-Sornette (JLS) model provides an operational framew…
Paper evaluates whether AI is a bubble or a productivity revolution.
problem Determining if AI investments are a bubble or a sustainable technology.
method Hybrid review and diagnostic framework combining asset pricing foundations and modern econometric methods.
result AI investments show both genuine fundamentals and bubble-like fragilities.
By combining (i) the economic theory of rational expectation bubbles, (ii) behavioral finance on imitation and herding of investors and traders and (iii) the mathematical and statistical physics of bifurcations and phase transitions, the log-periodic power law (LPPL) model has been developed as a flexible tool to detec…
Proving the existence of speculative financial bubbles even a posteriori has proven exceedingly difficult so anticipating a speculative bubble ex ante would at first seem an impossible task. Still as illustrated by the recent turmoil in financial markets initiated by the so called subprime crisis there is clearly an ur…
Recurrence analysis of the NASDAQ crash of April 2000physics.soc-ph
Recurrence Plot (RP) and Recurrence Quantification Analysis RQA) are signal numerical analysis methodologies able to work with non linear dynamical systems and non stationarity. Moreover they well evidence changes in the states of a dynamical system. It is shown that RP and RQA detect the critical regime in financial i…
The bubble is a controversial and important issue. Many methods which based on the rational expectation have been proposed to detect the bubble. However, for some developing countries, epically China, the asset markets are so young that for many companies, there are no dividends and fundamental value, making it difficu…
We applied the Johansen-Ledoit-Sornette (JLS) model to detect possible bubbles and crashes related to the Brexit/Bremain referendum scheduled for 23rd June 2016. Our implementation includes an enhanced model calibration using Genetic Algorithms. We selected a few historical financial series sensitive to the Brexit/Brem…
We construct a statistical indicator for the detection of short-term asset price bubbles based on the information content of bid and ask market quotes for plain vanilla put and call options. Our construction makes use of the martingale theory of asset price bubbles and the fact that such scenarios where the price for a…
The proliferation of fake news and filter bubbles makes it increasingly difficult to form an unbiased, balanced opinion towards a topic. To ameliorate this, we propose 360° Stance Detection, a tool that aggregates news with multiple perspectives on a topic. It presents them on a spectrum ranging from support to opposit…
Based on the Log-Periodic Power Law (LPPL) methodology, with the universal preferred scaling factor , the negative bubble on the oil market in 2014-2016 has been detected. Over the same period a positive bubble on the so called commodity currencies expressed in terms of the US dollar appears to take place w…
Identifying unambiguously the presence of a bubble in an asset price remains an unsolved problem in standard econometric and financial economic approaches. A large part of the problem is that the fundamental value of an asset is, in general, not directly observable and it is poorly constrained to calculate. Further, it…
Inspired by the question of identifying the start time of financial bubbles, we address the calibration of time series in which the inception of the latest regime of interest is unknown. By taking into account the tendency of a given model to overfit data, we introduce the Lagrange regularisation of the normalised …
Keeping a basic tenet of economic theory, rational expectations, we model the nonlinear positive feedback between agents in the stock market as an interplay between nonlinearity and multiplicative noise. The derived hyperbolic stochastic finite-time singularity formula transforms a Gaussian white noise into a rich time…
We develop a strong diagnostic for bubbles and crashes in bitcoin, by analyzing the coincidence (and its absence) of fundamental and technical indicators. Using a generalized Metcalfe's law based on network properties, a fundamental value is quantified and shown to be heavily exceeded, on at least four occasions, by bu…
The proposed model is aimed to reveal important patterns in the behavior of a simplified financial system. The patterns could be detected as regular cycles consisting of debt bubbles and crises. Financial cycles have a well defined structure and form periodic sequences along the axis of credit expansion while retaining…
Characterizes critical points in convex double and triple bubbles.
problem Critical points of double and triple bubbles in convex shapes.
method Characterization through stationary varifolds in and .
result Characterization of critical points in convex shapes.
New visual tool detects financial market changes using multiscaling analysis.
problem Detecting relevant changes in financial time series.
method Time-dependent Generalized Hurst Exponents (GHE) and Change-Point Analysis.
result Identifies patterns distinguishing between uniscaling and multiscaling, and provides warning signals.
Survey on soap bubble partitions and their stability.
problem Characterizing and stabilizing soap bubble partitions.
method Survey and analysis of recent research.
result Recent advancements in multi-bubble isoperimetric minimizers and stability.
Bubble Necessity Theoremecon.TH
Bubbles are essential in certain economic models with high growth and low interest rates.
problem Asset price bubbles exceeding fundamental values.
method Developed the Bubble Necessity Theorem in economic models with specific growth and interest rate conditions.
result Bubbles are inevitable in certain economic scenarios with high growth and low interest rates.
Study Yang-Mills connections on four-manifolds, derive obstructions to bubbling.
problem Bubbling configurations in Yang-Mills fields on four-manifolds.
method Derived Pohozaev type compatibility between weak limit connection and bubbles, involving Weyl tensor.
result Obstructions to certain bubbling configurations on CP2.
Rational bubbles form in nonstationary models of real assets.
problem Understanding the emergence of rational bubbles in real assets.
method Developed economic models showing bubbles inevitably emerge in nonstationary systems.
result Bubbles in real assets are inevitable and can be analyzed using mathematical theorems.
Existence of double bubbles with high constant mean curvatures in Riemannian manifolds.
problem Existence of double bubbles with high constant mean curvatures in Riemannian manifolds.
method Perturbations of geodesic standard double bubbles centered at critical points of the ambient scalar curvature and aligned along eigen-vectors of the ambient Ricci tensor, with general multiplicity results via Lusternik-Schnirelman theory.
result Existence of double bubbles with high constant mean curvatures in Riemannian manifolds.
Defines speculative bubbles in discrete-time models based on discounted stock price losing mass.
problem Characterizing speculative bubbles in discrete-time models.
method Introduces a new definition based on discounted stock price behavior and provides probabilistic characterizations.
result Speculative bubbles in discrete time are linked to solutions of a linear Volterra integral equation.
Degenerate solutions found in 2D H-system bubbles with higher degrees.
problem Existence of degenerate solutions in H-system bubbles with degree ≥ 3.
method Algebraic characterization of degenerate bubbles.
result Degenerate solutions can exist for H-system bubbles with degree ≥ 3.
This is the third installment of the Financial Bubble Experiment. Here we provide the digital fingerprint of an electronic document in which we identify 27 bubbles in 27 different global assets; for 25 of these assets, we present windows of dates of the most likely ending time of each bubble. We will provide that docum…
On 2 November 2009, the Financial Bubble Experiment was launched within the Financial Crisis Observatory (FCO) at ETH Zurich (\url{http://www.er.ethz.ch/fco/}). In that initial report, we diagnosed and announced three bubbles on three different assets. In this latest release of 23 December 2009 in this ongoing experime…
Continuous time analysis of bubble formation in harmonic maps.
problem Understanding bubble formation in harmonic map heat flow.
method Continuous time approach to analyze bubbling sequences.
result Solutions approach multi-bubble configurations in continuous time.
Trading bubbles form when traders adapt to price mismatches.
problem Self-sustained price bubbles driven by adaptive trading behavior.
method Multi-agent model illustrating price bubble formation and statistical properties.
result Price bubbles can be driven by adaptive investment strategies.
This is the second installment of the Financial Bubble Experiment. Here we provide the digital fingerprint of an electronic document in which we identify 7 bubbles in 7 different global assets; for 4 of these assets, we present windows of dates of the most likely ending time of each bubble. We will provide that documen…
Solves the quintuple bubble problem on spheres and Euclidean spaces.
problem Minimizing total perimeter of multiple bubbles enclosing fixed volumes.
method Developed spectral theory of Jacobi operator and new bubble deformation method.
result Confirmed quintuple bubble conjecture on spheres and Euclidean spaces.
Fearless versus Fearful Speculative Financial Bubblescond-mat.stat-mech
Using a recently introduced rational expectation model of bubbles, based on the interplay between stochasticity and positive feedbacks of prices on returns and volatility, we develop a new methodology to test how this model classifies 9 time series that have been previously considered as bubbles ending in crashes. The …
Housing markets play a crucial role in economies and the collapse of a real-estate bubble usually destabilizes the financial system and causes economic recessions. We investigate the systemic risk and spatiotemporal dynamics of the US housing market (1975-2011) at the state level based on the Random Matrix Theory (RMT)…