A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
This work sets a universal lower bound for learning causal DAGs with atomic interventions.
problem Learning causal DAGs using only observational data results in a Markov equivalence class, requiring interventions to fully orient.
method Developed CBSP orderings and used them to prove a universal lower bound on the number of single-node interventions needed.
result The universal lower bound is within a factor of two of the minimum number of single-node interventions required to fully orient a given Markov equivalence class.
Bandit is a framework for designing sequential experiments. In each experiment, a learner selects an arm A∈A and obtains an observation corresponding to A. Theoretically, the tight regret lower-bound for the general bandit is polynomial with respect to the number of arms ∣A∣. This makes ba…
We consider testing and learning problems on causal Bayesian networks as defined by Pearl (Pearl, 2009). Given a causal Bayesian network M on a graph with n discrete variables and bounded in-degree and bounded `confounded components', we show that O(logn) interventions on an unknown causal Bayesian ne…
Develops a method to efficiently learn causal DAGs using directed clique trees.
problem Efficiently learning causal DAGs in the presence of large cliques.
method Decomposes DAGs into independently orientable components using directed clique trees and designs a two-phase intervention algorithm.
result Proves that the number of single-node interventions necessary to orient any DAG in an EC is at least the sum of half the size of the largest cliques in each chain component of the essential graph.
Personalized interventions in social services, education, and healthcare leverage individual-level causal effect predictions in order to give the best treatment to each individual or to prioritize program interventions for the individuals most likely to benefit. While the sensitivity of these domains compels us to eval…
We consider the problem of learning causal networks with interventions, when each intervention is limited in size under Pearl's Structural Equation Model with independent errors (SEM-IE). The objective is to minimize the number of experiments to discover the causal directions of all the edges in a causal graph. Previou…
PULSE estimator improves prediction in causal inference with bounded interventions.
problem Optimizing causal models for bounded interventions.
method Relates K-class estimators to anchor regression, introduces PULSE estimator for minimization of mean squared prediction error with bounded constraints.
result PULSE estimator outperforms other estimators in real data and simulation experiments, especially in weak instrument settings.
We study the problem of efficiently estimating the effect of an intervention on a single variable (atomic interventions) using observational samples in a causal Bayesian network. Our goal is to give algorithms that are efficient in both time and sample complexity in a non-parametric setting. Tian and Pearl (AAAI `02) h…
Directed acyclic graph (DAG) models are popular for capturing causal relationships. From observational and interventional data, a DAG model can only be determined up to its \emph{interventional Markov equivalence class} (I-MEC). We investigate the size of MECs for random DAG models generated by uniformly sampling and o…
Motivated by applications in computational advertising and systems biology, we consider the problem of identifying the best out of several possible soft interventions at a source node V in an acyclic causal directed graph, to maximize the expected value of a target node Y (located downstream of V). Our setting im…
The study quantifies the information needed for causal queries at different levels of Pearl's hierarchy.
problem How much additional information is needed for interventional and counterfactual queries compared to observational queries?
method Formalized via query-class description length, using Kolmogorov complexity of answer oracles induced by SCMs.
result Binary acyclic SCMs show a quadratic gap between observational and interventional descriptions, and a logarithmic gap between interventional and counterfactual descriptions.
Modern longitudinal studies collect feature data at many timepoints, often of the same order of sample size. Such studies are typically affected by {dropout} and positivity violations. We tackle these problems by generalizing effects of recent incremental interventions (which shift propensity scores rather than set tre…
We study how to learn optimal interventions sequentially given causal information represented as a causal graph along with associated conditional distributions. Causal modeling is useful in real world problems like online advertisement where complex causal mechanisms underlie the relationship between interventions and …
We study the problem of using causal models to improve the rate at which good interventions can be learned online in a stochastic environment. Our formalism combines multi-arm bandits and causal inference to model a novel type of bandit feedback that is not exploited by existing approaches. We propose a new algorithm t…
Causal diagrams based on do intervention are useful tools to formalize, process and understand causal relationship among variables. However, the do intervention has controversial interpretation of causal questions for non-manipulable variables, and it also lacks the power to check the conditions related to counterfactu…