The paper explores how prior functions and bootstrapping improve ensemble uncertainty estimation.
problem Improving uncertainty estimation in machine learning models.
method Investigates the benefits of prior functions and bootstrapping in ensemble models.
result Prior functions and bootstrapping enhance ensemble agents' uncertainty estimation across different inputs.
The paper analyzes bootstrap ensemble classifiers in high-dimensional settings.
problem Performance of bootstrap ensemble classifiers in high-dimensional data.
method Random Matrix Theory applied to LSSVM ensemble.
result Strategies to optimize performance of LSSVM ensemble.
Improved neural network regression uncertainty estimation.
problem Neural networks lack classical uncertainty due to finite data.
method Bootstrapped Deep Ensembles, incorporating parametric bootstrap.
result Significantly improved uncertainty estimation compared to standard Deep Ensembles.
GBEST model improves survival analysis for small datasets.
problem Challenges in survival analysis, especially with small data.
method Bayesian bootstrap and Beta Stacy bootstrap methods integrated into bagging tree models.
result GBEST model outperforms classical survival models in predictive performance and stability.
This paper examines the use of a residual bootstrap for bias correction in machine learning regression methods. Accounting for bias is an important obstacle in recent efforts to develop statistical inference for machine learning methods. We demonstrate empirically that the proposed bootstrap bias correction can lead to…
Deep ensembles effectively capture epistemic uncertainty through training stochasticity, providing a frequentist perspective.
problem Understanding and quantifying epistemic uncertainty in machine learning models.
method Bootstrap-based estimator and decomposition of deep ensembles into data variability and training stochasticity.
result Deep ensembles primarily capture training stochasticity, explaining their effectiveness in quantifying epistemic uncertainty.
Recently deep reinforcement learning (DRL) has achieved outstanding success on solving many difficult and large-scale RL problems. However the high sample cost required for effective learning often makes DRL unaffordable in resource-limited applications. With the aim of improving sample efficiency and learning performa…
A new ensemble method using random projections for kNN classification.
problem Improving kNN classification accuracy through ensemble methods.
method Random projection of bootstrap samples into lower dimensions, using extended neighbourhood rule for base learners.
result Enhanced classification accuracy compared to traditional kNN and other ensembles.
In this paper we present a technique for using the bootstrap to estimate the operating characteristics and their variability for certain types of ensemble methods. Bootstrapping a model can require a huge amount of work if the training data set is large. Fortunately in many cases the technique lets us determine the eff…
The paper connects neural network ensembles to Bayesian inference using variational methods.
problem Explaining the behavior of ensemble methods in neural networks.
method Deriving conditions for ensemble optimization to reduce divergence to the posterior distribution.
result Ensemble methods can be a valid alternative to approximate Bayesian inference.
A new clustering method using Bayesian techniques improves robustness and interpretability.
problem Improving clustering techniques for better robustness and interpretability.
method The paper proposes a novel Bayesian clustering method using the proper Bayesian bootstrap, which combines k-means clustering and ensemble clustering.
result The method provides clear indication on the optimal number of clusters and a better representation of the clustered data.
When randomized ensemble methods such as bagging and random forests are implemented, a basic question arises: Is the ensemble large enough? In particular, the practitioner desires a rigorous guarantee that a given ensemble will perform nearly as well as an ideal infinite ensemble (trained on the same data). The purpose…
In ensemble methods, the outputs of a collection of diverse classifiers are combined in the expectation that the global prediction be more accurate than the individual ones. Heterogeneous ensembles consist of predictors of different types, which are likely to have different biases. If these biases are complementary, th…
Bagging stabilizes linear interpolators, improving their generalization performance.
problem Unstable linear interpolators fail on noisy data.
method Introduced multiplier-bootstrap-based bagged least square estimator.
result Bagging effectively mitigates variance, leading to bounded prediction risk.
BoostForest combines multiple BoostTree models for improved accuracy.
problem Improving ensemble learning performance.
method BoostTree uses gradient boosting and random cut-points. BoostForest bootstraps training data and randomly samples parameters.
result BoostForest outperforms classical ensemble methods on 35 datasets.
SETrLUSI combines diverse knowledge from multiple domains for faster convergence.
problem Handling diverse knowledge from multiple domains in transfer learning.
method Stochastic Ensemble Multi-Source Transfer Learning Using Statistical Invariant (SETrLUSI).
result SETrLUSI accelerates convergence and outperforms related methods.
Neural Bootstrapper reduces bootstrapping cost for deep neural networks.
problem Computational burden in bootstrapping deep neural networks.
method Neural Bootstrapper learns to generate bootstrapped neural networks through single model training.
result Neural Bootstrapper outperforms bagging methods with lower computational cost.
WildWood improves Random Forest predictions using bootstrap out-of-bag samples.
problem Improving Random Forest predictions for supervised learning.
method Uses bootstrap out-of-bag samples to compute improved predictions by aggregating all possible subtrees with exponential weights.
result WildWood produces faster and more competitive predictions compared to other ensemble methods.
A new ensemble method improves kNN performance by extending the neighborhood rule.
problem Traditional kNN's limitations when test points are outside the spherical region and ensemble's high errors.
method Determines neighbors in k steps, using bootstrap samples and optimal models selection.
result The proposed ensemble method outperforms state-of-the-art methods on 17 benchmark datasets.
Although the methods of bagging and random forests are some of the most widely used prediction methods, relatively little is known about their algorithmic convergence. In particular, there are not many theoretical guarantees for deciding when an ensemble is "large enough" --- so that its accuracy is close to that of an…
Deep ensembles improve model accuracy and robustness, but their theoretical underpinnings are not fully understood.
problem Understanding why deep ensembles work well in practice despite theoretical limitations.
method Investigating the loss landscape of neural networks and exploring the diversity of functions in function space.
result Random initializations explore diverse modes in function space, while ensembles along an optimization trajectory cluster within a single mode.
Probabilistic graphical models are graphical representations of probability distributions. Graphical models have applications in many fields including biology, social sciences, linguistic, neuroscience. In this paper, we propose directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) learning via bootstrap aggregating. The proposed procedure i…
A framework infers feature importance with uncertainties for high-dimensional data.
problem Estimating feature importance in high-dimensional data with uncertainty.
method Shapley value based framework, sub-SAGE, bootstrapping.
result Uncertainties in feature importance can be estimated from bootstrapping.
New method stabilizes deep learning models for clinical risk prediction.
problem Stability issues in deep learning models for clinical risk prediction.
method Bootstrapping-based regularisation framework embedded in deep neural networks.
result Improved prediction stability across multiple datasets.
Enhanced TSFMs improve time series forecasting accuracy and reliability.
problem Variance, bias, and uncertainty in TSFMs' predictions on real data.
method Statistical and ensemble techniques including bagging, stacking, residual modeling, and prediction intervals.
result Hybrid models consistently outperform standalone TSFMs across multiple horizons.
EBQL reduces bias in Q-learning for improved performance.
problem Over- and under-estimation biases in Q-learning degrade performance.
method Ensemble Bootstrapping to reduce both over- and under-estimation biases.
result EBQL outperforms other Q-learning methods in Atari games.
Random Forests automatically prune a latent 'true' tree, explaining their overfitting without tuning.
problem Difficulty in building bad Random Forests and overfitting without apparent consequences.
method Bootstrap aggregation and model perturbation in Random Forests.
result Randomized ensembles implicitly perform optimal early stopping out-of-sample, explaining overfitting.
Improves predictive algorithm performance with domain adaptation.
problem Improves performance of predictive algorithms in distributional shift scenarios.
method Domain adaptive bootstrap aggregating with iterative nearest neighbor sampling.
result Proposes a method to improve predictive algorithm performance in distributional shift scenarios.
In this article we propose a new supervised ensemble learning method called Data Shared Adaptive Bootstrap Aggregated (AdaBag) Lasso for capturing low dimensional useful features for word based sentiment analysis and mining problems. The literature on ensemble methods is very rich in both statistics and machine learnin…
CXPlain provides accurate, fast feature importance estimates and uncertainty quantification for machine learning models.
problem Accurate and fast feature importance estimates for high-dimensional data with uncertainty quantification.
method CXPlain models learn to estimate feature importance as a causal learning task, using bootstrap ensembling to quantify uncertainty.
result CXPlain is significantly more accurate and faster than existing methods for estimating feature importance.
We propose a novel "tree-averaging" model that utilizes the ensemble of classification and regression trees (CART). Each constituent tree is estimated with a subset of similar data. We treat this grouping of subsets as Bayesian ensemble trees (BET) and model them as an infinite mixture Dirichlet process. We show that B…
Ensembles improve classifier performance by reducing bias, not variance.
problem Improving classifier performance through ensemble methods.
method Extended bias-variance decomposition for classification tasks, introducing dual reparameterization.
result Ensembling reduces bias in classifiers, contrary to the traditional view.
This work develops formal statistical inference procedures for machine learning ensemble methods. Ensemble methods based on bootstrapping, such as bagging and random forests, have improved the predictive accuracy of individual trees, but fail to provide a framework in which distributional results can be easily determin…
Sampling with replacement occurs in many settings in machine learning, notably in the bagging ensemble technique and the .632+ validation scheme. The number of unique original items in a bootstrap sample can have an important role in the behaviour of prediction models learned on it. Indeed, there are uncontrived exampl…
SurvBESA predicts survival times using ensemble methods with self-attention.
problem Challenges in survival analysis due to censored data and unstable predictions.
method SurvBESA combines Beran estimators with a self-attention mechanism to predict survival times.
result SurvBESA outperforms state-of-the-art models in predicting survival times.
Proposes an IRT-based ensemble method to improve machine learning accuracy.
problem Improving the accuracy of machine learning models, especially for hard-to-classify instances.
method Introduces Item Response Theory (IRT) to evaluate sample difficulty and classifier ability, creating three models with different assumptions.
result The proposed IRT ensemble model outperforms other methods on 19 datasets.
SUNRISE improves off-policy RL algorithms by integrating ensemble methods.
problem Stability and exploration issues in off-policy RL algorithms.
method SUNRISE combines ensemble-based weighted Bellman backups and upper-confidence bounds for efficient exploration.
result SUNRISE improves the performance of off-policy RL algorithms across various domains.
EnFF uses flows to speed up DA in high dimensions.
problem Efficiently assimilating noisy data in high-dimensional systems.
method Flow Matching (FM) for training-free, scalable data assimilation.
result EnFF accelerates DA with improved cost-accuracy tradeoffs and scalability.
This study shows how social insects and machine learning methods share a common mathematical framework.
problem Understanding how decentralized systems achieve optimal decision-making.
method Developed a rigorous mathematical framework to show isomorphism between ant colonies and ensemble machine learning.
result Demonstrated that ant colony decision-making and random forest learning implement identical variance reduction strategies through decorrelation of identical units.
Improved deep hedging with ensemble uncertainty quantification.
problem Uncertainty in deep hedging models hinders their deployment.
method Trained an ensemble of LSTM networks to quantify uncertainty in deep hedging under Heston volatility and proportional transaction costs.
result The ensemble's disagreement provides a strong predictive confidence measure for hedge performance.
A new adaptive kNN classifier outperforms Random Forests.
problem Improving classification accuracy using nearest neighbors.
method Finding discriminant subspaces for efficient nearest neighbor classification, leveraging bagging for diversity.
result The proposed method outperforms Random Forests and other nearest neighbors ensembles.
We consider the problem of detecting out-of-distribution (OOD) samples in deep reinforcement learning. In a value based reinforcement learning setting, we propose to use uncertainty estimation techniques directly on the agent's value estimating neural network to detect OOD samples. The focus of our work lies in analyzi…
Improved tree selection methods enhance OTE's performance.
problem Optimal trees ensemble (OTE) underperforms with larger training data.
method Two modified methods: OOB and sub-bagging.
result Improved predictive accuracy compared to OTE and other methods.
POETS optimizes LLMs by combining policy ensembles and KL regularization.
problem Balancing exploration and exploitation in decision-making and optimization.
method POETS uses policy ensembles and KL regularization to optimize LLMs efficiently.
result POETS achieves state-of-the-art sample efficiency across various domains.
Paper proposes a new model using Capsule Networks to classify malware types.
problem Classifying malware types with varying behaviors.
method Ensemble Capsule Network model using bootstrap aggregating.
result Improved accuracy in classifying malware types.
The paper analyzes the risk of bagging regularized M-estimators under proportional asymptotics.
problem Characterizing the risk of ensemble estimators trained with subsamples and regularizers.
method Developed a consistent estimator for the risk of ensemble estimators under proportional asymptotics.
result Optimal subsample size k⋆ tends to be in the overparameterized regime for the full-ensemble estimator. We introduce canonical correlation forests (CCFs), a new decision tree ensemble method for classification and regression. Individual canonical correlation trees are binary decision trees with hyperplane splits based on local canonical correlation coefficients calculated during training. Unlike axis-aligned alternatives…
A new tree-based model improves uncertainty estimation in sequential optimization.
problem Improving uncertainty estimation in sequential model-based optimization.
method Proposed a new ensemble of randomized trees (BwO forest) with bagging and oversampling.
result BwO forest outperforms existing tree-based models in various optimization scenarios.