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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,982 papers · 148 categories

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0111 · Feb 201319922001200920172026
14 results for blindfolded monkeys

Study finds many stocks in S&P 500 are inefficient, suggesting financial analysts outperform blindfolded monkeys.

problem Degree of inefficiency in U.S. stock market performance.
method Confidence intervals for proportions to assess inefficiency in S&P 500 components.
result Proportion of inefficient stocks in the S&P 500 index estimated to be between 12.13% and 27.87%

A blindfolded LLM trading framework validates market signals without ticker memorization.

problem Ensuring LLMs trade based on genuine market understanding, not memorized data.
method Anonymize tickers and company names, verify signals through reasoning embeddings, and use PPO-DSR policy.
result Achieved Sharpe ratio of 1.40 +/- 0.22 across 20 seeds, robust in volatile markets.

In this study, we analyzed the activity of monkey V1 neurons responding to grating stimuli of different orientations using inference methods for a time-dependent Ising model. The method provides optimal estimation of time-dependent neural interactions with credible intervals according to the sequential Bayes estimation…

2018-07-24abs ↗pdf ↗

Bayesian model predicts iron deficiency from multi-source multi-way molecular data.

problem Predicting iron deficiency in rhesus monkeys from multi-source multi-way molecular data.
method Developed a Bayesian approach with a linear model incorporating multi-way dependence and varying signal sizes across sources.
result Model accurately classifies iron deficiency in monkeys and outperforms simpler models.

In this paper, we study the classification problem in which we have access to easily obtainable surrogate for true labels, namely complementary labels, which specify classes that observations do \textbf{not} belong to. Let YY and Yˉ\bar{Y} be the true and complementary labels, respectively. We first model the annotati…

2017-11-27abs ↗pdf ↗

Random investment strategies outperform sensible ones, even with forecasts.

problem The usefulness of investment strategies based on forecasts is questioned.
method Investigated the performance of sensible and nonsensical investment strategies, including forecasts.
result There is no substantial difference between the performances of ``best'' and ``trivial'' forecasts.

This paper presents a Bayesian approach to learning the connectivity structure of a group of neurons from data on configuration frequencies. A major objective of the research is to provide statistical tools for detecting changes in firing patterns with changing stimuli. Our framework is not restricted to the well-under…

2013-02-13abs ↗pdf ↗

A new method learns time-varying autoregressive models from multivariate time series.

problem Learning interpretable spatiotemporal structure in multivariate time series data.
method Windowed low rank tensor approach with non-smooth and non-convex optimization.
result The method can identify the true rank of a switching linear system in noisy data.