Unified approach for sequence design combining likelihood-free inference and black-box optimization.
problem Designing biological sequences efficiently and accurately.
method Unified probabilistic framework integrating likelihood-free inference and black-box optimization.
result Previous optimization methods can be adapted and new algorithms proposed within this framework.
ALFI improves likelihood-free inference for black-box generators.
problem Limitations of likelihood-free inference on black-box generators.
method Adversarial Likelihood-Free Inference (ALFI) to estimate posterior distributions.
result ALFI achieves best parameter estimation accuracy with limited simulation.
New guarantees for black-box variational inference methods.
problem Insufficient theoretical guarantees for black-box variational inference.
method Novel convergence guarantees for stochastic optimization of variational inference.
result Provable convergence of proximal and projected stochastic gradient descent for variational inference.
We introduce overdispersed black-box variational inference, a method to reduce the variance of the Monte Carlo estimator of the gradient in black-box variational inference. Instead of taking samples from the variational distribution, we use importance sampling to take samples from an overdispersed distribution in the s…
The paper extends statistical inference methods for black-box generative models.
problem Understanding and validating black-box generative models without access to their internal data.
method Develops model-level statistical inference tasks using generative model representations.
result Model-level representations are effective for multiple inference tasks.
New method reduces inference variance for faster optimization.
problem High variance in black-box variational inference.
method Joint control variate addressing both data subsampling and Monte Carlo noise.
result Significantly reduced gradient variance, leading to faster optimization.
Method reformulates constrained optimization as latent space inference.
problem Optimizing black-box functions with hard constraints.
method Posterior inference in latent space using flow-based models and diffusion models.
result Method achieves superior performance across various tasks.
Guarantees convergence for black-box variational inference without modifications.
problem Convergence guarantees for black-box variational inference.
method Analysis of log-smooth posterior densities, location-scale variational family, and convergence rates of algorithm design choices.
result Proximal stochastic gradient descent fixes suboptimal convergence rates and achieves strongest known guarantees.
Proposes a method to stabilize Black Box Variational Inference using the James-Stein estimator.
problem Stability issues and fine-tuning required in basic Black Box Variational Inference.
method Reframe stochastic gradient ascent as multivariate estimation problem using James-Stein estimator.
result Provides a simpler method with consistent performance in terms of model fit and convergence time.
Divide-and-conquer framework speeds up black-box inference for large data.
problem Computational intractability of uncertainty quantification for expensive data simulation.
method Divide data into partitions, train on a subset, bootstrap on partitions, combine results.
result Feasibility of estimating max-stable process parameters with tens of thousands of locations.
Variational inference has become a widely used method to approximate posteriors in complex latent variables models. However, deriving a variational inference algorithm generally requires significant model-specific analysis, and these efforts can hinder and deter us from quickly developing and exploring a variety of mod…
Improves scalability and efficiency of mixture models in black-box variational inference.
problem Scaling mixture models in black-box variational inference leads to high parameter and time costs.
method Introduces MISVAE for amortized mixture parameter space and new ELBO estimators.
result Achieves superior estimation performance with fewer parameters and shorter inference time.
DDVI uses diffusion models for variational inference, improving latent variable model performance.
problem Improving variational inference in latent variable models.
method Introduces diffusion-based variational posteriors trained with a regularized ELBO.
result Outperforms alternative variational posteriors on various benchmarks and a biology task.
Matched Machine Learning combines machine learning and matching for causal inference.
problem Non-interpretable methods for causal inference.
method Combines machine learning and matching for interpretable causal inference.
result Performs as well as black-box machine learning methods and better than existing matching methods.
New framework for variational coresets simplifies Bayesian inference for complex models.
problem Efficient Bayesian inference for complex models like neural networks.
method Black-box variational inference for coresets that handle intractable posterior distributions.
result Principled application of variational coresets to Bayesian neural networks.
QBVI uses natural gradients for efficient Bayesian learning.
problem Efficient Bayesian learning in complex models.
method Natural gradient updates in a black-box framework for exponential-family distributions.
result QBVI framework is effective for a wide range of Bayesian inference problems.
Paper advances black-box VI using flows and Monte-Carlo methods.
problem Improving automatic posterior inference in black-box VI.
method Combines normalizing flows, Monte-Carlo methods, and optimization considerations.
result Significant improvement in state-of-the-art variational inference.
AdvMind detects adversary intent in black-box attacks with high accuracy.
problem Detecting adversary intent in black-box adversarial attacks is challenging.
method AdvMind accounts for adversary adaptiveness and synthesizes queries to expose intent.
result AdvMind detects adversary intent with over 75% accuracy after observing less than 3 query batches.
DiBO uses diffusion models to optimize high-dimensional black-box functions efficiently.
problem Optimizing high-dimensional and complex black-box functions efficiently.
method DiBO iterates two stages: training a diffusion model and casting candidate selection as posterior inference.
result DiBO outperforms state-of-the-art baselines across synthetic and real-world tasks.
This paper shows equivalence between SVGD and BBVI using kernel gradient flows.
problem Bayesian inference methods and their equivalence.
method Formalizes equivalence between SVGD and BBVI using kernel gradient flows.
result BBVI corresponds precisely to SVGD when using the neural tangent kernel.
Develops significance tests for neural networks without strong assumptions or excessive computation.
problem Addressing the black-box nature of deep neural networks for feature relevance testing.
method Derives one-split and two-split tests relaxing assumptions and computational complexity.
result Establishes asymptotic null distributions and consistency in Type II error.
New method estimates selection event for black-box models.
problem Infeasibility of conditional selective inference due to unavailable selection event.
method Bootstrapping to estimate selection event and conditional distribution.
result Feasibility of conditional selective inference for models without exact selection event.
The paper introduces structured variational families to improve scalability in black-box variational inference.
problem Scalability issues in black-box variational inference, especially for large datasets and hierarchical models.
method Developed structured variational families that achieve better iteration complexity of O(N) compared to full-rank families.
result Structured variational families can achieve better scaling with respect to dataset size N, improving iteration complexity from O(N^2) to O(N).
VERA uses variational inference to jailbreak LLMs without manual optimization.
problem Lack of principled objective for gradient-based optimization in jailbreaking LLMs.
method VERA casts black-box jailbreak prompting as a variational inference problem, training a small attacker LLM to approximate the target LLM's posterior over adversarial prompts.
result VERA achieves strong performance across various target LLMs, demonstrating the value of probabilistic inference for adversarial prompt generation.
A new method for safer statistical inference after predictions.
problem Statistical inference with pseudo-outcomes from machine learning predictions.
method Prediction De-Correlated Inference (PDC) framework.
result PDC consistently outperforms supervised methods and can adapt to any model.
Hybrid neural network infers states from black-box systems.
problem Inference of state models in black-box systems without source code instrumentation.
method Convolutional and recurrent layers learn correlations between time series signals.
result Improves state change point detection by up to 102%.
Post-ADC inference corrects bias in statistical inference after active data collection.
problem Bias in inference after active data collection.
method Post-ADC inference framework that corrects bias from both ADC process and data-driven target construction.
result Valid inference for data collected by SMBO methods like GP-UCB and TPE.
Deep neural networks work well at approximating complicated functions when provided with data and trained by gradient descent methods. At the same time, there is a vast amount of existing functions that programmatically solve different tasks in a precise manner eliminating the need for training. In many cases, it is po…
New method optimizes sensor placement for stochastic systems efficiently.
problem Optimizing sensor placements for black-box stochastic systems with computational constraints.
method Trains a joint energy-based model on simulation data to learn parameter and solution distributions, allowing efficient sensor placement.
result Demonstrates lower computational cost and more informative sensor locations compared to conventional approaches.
BBCI uses meta prediction to estimate causal effects from datasets.
problem Estimating causal effects from observed data.
method Meta prediction to learn causal effect estimation.
result BBCI accurately estimates ATEs and CATEs across various causal inference problems.
Improves model classification accuracy in black-box settings.
problem Difficulty in inferring model properties due to limited query access.
method Introduces discriminative factorization to distinguish high-quality queries.
result Probability of chance-level classification decreases exponentially with query budget.
Algorithm optimizes and infers performance online, improving reliability.
problem Balancing optimization and statistical inference in complex systems.
method Online algorithm that provides consistent performance variance and confidence intervals.
result Online consistent estimator for performance variance and asymptotic confidence intervals.
New methods improve Bayesian inference for complex economic models.
problem Difficulty in parameter estimation for simulation models, especially in economics.
method Neural network-based black-box approximate Bayesian inference methods.
result Neural network methods provide state-of-the-art parameter inference for economic simulation models.
Bayesian model explains and improves black-box estimators for class distribution.
problem Calibrating probabilistic classifiers and uncertainty quantification for unlabeled data.
method Introduced a Bayesian model approximating the ground-truth generative process, using efficient MCMC sampling.
result The Bayesian model is competitive and sometimes superior to established point estimators.
Bayesian Algorithm Execution uses mutual information to infer properties of black-box functions efficiently.
problem Estimating computable properties of expensive black-box functions with limited evaluations.
method Sequentially choosing queries that maximize mutual information with respect to the algorithm's output.
result InfoBAX reduces query counts by up to 500 times compared to the original algorithm.
New bounds show BBVI's gradient variance matches SGD conditions, improving parameterization efficiency.
problem Understanding and improving the convergence of black-box variational inference (BBVI).
method Showed BBVI satisfies matching gradient variance bounds corresponding to the ABC condition for smooth and quadratically-growing log-likelihoods.
result Proven BBVI's gradient variance matches SGD conditions, with superior dimensional dependence for mean-field parameterization.
Understanding how a learned black box works is of crucial interest for the future of Machine Learning. In this paper, we pioneer the question of the global interpretability of learned black box models that assign numerical values to symbolic sequential data. To tackle that task, we propose a spectral algorithm for the …
Membership inference determines, given a sample and trained parameters of a machine learning model, whether the sample was part of the training set. In this paper, we derive the optimal strategy for membership inference with a few assumptions on the distribution of the parameters. We show that optimal attacks only depe…
Improves reliability of BBVI optimization methods.
problem Reliability issues and expertise required for BBVI optimization.
method RABVI framework with automated learning rate adjustment and KL divergence estimation.
result RABVI detects inaccurate variational approximations and optimizes reliability.
Improved inference for models with continuous latent variables.
problem Inference accuracy with traditional variational methods is limited.
method Reparameterized Variational Rejection Sampling (RVRS) using a proposal distribution with a reparameterized gradient estimator.
result RVRS offers a better trade-off between computational cost and inference fidelity.
Paper shows how to infer hidden states in neural networks analytically.
problem Intractability of Bayesian inference for neural networks.
method Leverage tractable approximate Gaussian inference (TAGI) for hidden states inference.
result Demonstrates inference of hidden states through constraints for various applications.
Paper introduces attacks to infer GAN training dataset properties.
problem Security and privacy risks of generative models like GANs.
method Proposes a general attack pipeline for two attack scenarios.
result Demonstrates strong performance in inferring GAN training dataset properties.
Deep learning techniques are rapidly advanced recently, and becoming a necessity component for widespread systems. However, the inference process of deep learning is black-box, and not very suitable to safety-critical systems which must exhibit high transparency. In this paper, to address this black-box limitation, we …
BBVI with STL converges geometrically under perfect specification, with quadratic variance bound.
problem Convergence rate of BBVI with STL estimator.
method Proved geometric convergence rate with quadratic variance bound for BBVI with STL estimator.
result BBVI with STL converges geometrically under perfect variational family specification.
Parameter inference for stochastic differential equations is challenging due to the presence of a latent diffusion process. Working with an Euler-Maruyama discretisation for the diffusion, we use variational inference to jointly learn the parameters and the diffusion paths. We use a standard mean-field variational appr…
We introduce TrustVI, a fast second-order algorithm for black-box variational inference based on trust-region optimization and the reparameterization trick. At each iteration, TrustVI proposes and assesses a step based on minibatches of draws from the variational distribution. The algorithm provably converges to a stat…
BaM improves BBVI by optimizing a score-based divergence, leading to faster convergence.
problem Slow convergence of black-box variational inference methods.
method Batch and match (BaM) approach based on a score-based divergence.
result BaM converges exponentially quickly to the target mean and covariance.
In this work, we explore how probabilistic programs can be used to represent policies in sequential decision problems. In this formulation, a probabilistic program is a black-box stochastic simulator for both the problem domain and the agent. We relate classic policy gradient techniques to recently introduced black-box…