Bayesian model explains and improves black-box estimators for class distribution.
problem Calibrating probabilistic classifiers and uncertainty quantification for unlabeled data.
method Introduced a Bayesian model approximating the ground-truth generative process, using efficient MCMC sampling.
result The Bayesian model is competitive and sometimes superior to established point estimators.
Develops black-box methods to estimate parameters of complex models.
problem Lack of efficient methods to produce simulations for complex statistical models.
method Pre-training deep neural networks on extensive simulated databases for well-structured likelihoods. Iterative algorithm for other complex dependencies.
result Successfully estimates and quantifies uncertainty of parameters from non-Gaussian models.
ALFI improves likelihood-free inference for black-box generators.
problem Limitations of likelihood-free inference on black-box generators.
method Adversarial Likelihood-Free Inference (ALFI) to estimate posterior distributions.
result ALFI achieves best parameter estimation accuracy with limited simulation.
Proposes a method to stabilize Black Box Variational Inference using the James-Stein estimator.
problem Stability issues and fine-tuning required in basic Black Box Variational Inference.
method Reframe stochastic gradient ascent as multivariate estimation problem using James-Stein estimator.
result Provides a simpler method with consistent performance in terms of model fit and convergence time.
New framework converts offline to online estimation using black-box offline estimators.
problem Convert offline estimation algorithms to online estimation algorithms.
method Oracle-Efficient Online Estimation (OEOE) framework.
result Achieves near-optimal online estimation error via black-box offline estimators.
New estimator optimizes black-box model errors in semiparametric estimation.
problem How nuisance estimation errors affect low-dimensional target parameters in semiparametric models.
method Proposed a new estimator achieving a sharper rate of convergence.
result The first-order stochastic error of nuisance estimation can be eliminated.
New method optimizes black-box functions using generative models and Wasserstein distance.
problem Optimizing black-box functions with stochastic responses in high dimensions.
method Deep generative surrogate models and Wasserstein distance for uncertainty estimation.
result Method outperforms state-of-the-art methods in robustness to function shape and stochasticity.
Divide-and-conquer framework speeds up black-box inference for large data.
problem Computational intractability of uncertainty quantification for expensive data simulation.
method Divide data into partitions, train on a subset, bootstrap on partitions, combine results.
result Feasibility of estimating max-stable process parameters with tens of thousands of locations.
FastSHAP speeds up Shapley value estimation for black-box models.
problem Efficiently calculating Shapley values for complex models.
method Uses a learned explainer model in a single forward pass.
result Generates high-quality explanations with significant speedup.
New guarantees for black-box variational inference methods.
problem Insufficient theoretical guarantees for black-box variational inference.
method Novel convergence guarantees for stochastic optimization of variational inference.
result Provable convergence of proximal and projected stochastic gradient descent for variational inference.
Deep neural networks work well at approximating complicated functions when provided with data and trained by gradient descent methods. At the same time, there is a vast amount of existing functions that programmatically solve different tasks in a precise manner eliminating the need for training. In many cases, it is po…
SurvBeX explains ML survival models using Beran estimator.
problem Interpreting predictions of machine learning survival models.
method Uses modified Beran estimator as surrogate model to compute feature impacts.
result SurvBeX minimizes mean distance between black-box and surrogate model survival functions.
A2D2E designs optimal evaluations for estimating main effects in black-box models.
problem Sensitivity to OOD evaluations and instability under feature correlation in estimating black-box model effects.
method A2D2E uses D-optimal hypercube designs to minimize main effect estimation variance.
result A2D2E outperforms existing methods, especially under high feature correlation.
Improves model classification accuracy in black-box settings.
problem Difficulty in inferring model properties due to limited query access.
method Introduces discriminative factorization to distinguish high-quality queries.
result Probability of chance-level classification decreases exponentially with query budget.
Proposes a method to ensure accurate estimation of rare events in AI systems.
problem Lack of efficiency guarantees in black-box systems for rare-event simulation.
method Integrates deep learning with importance sampling to create a statistically guaranteed estimator.
result Demonstrates effective estimation of rare-event probabilities in AI systems.
Adapts example weights to optimize black-box metrics.
problem Optimizing metrics defined by black-box functions.
method Adaptive example weighting and iterative post-shifting.
result Improves classification performance compared to baselines.
Paper presents efficient IS for tail risk estimation with machine learning features.
problem Estimating Value at Risk and Conditional Value at Risk with black-box access.
method Efficient Importance Sampling algorithm with self-structuring transformation.
result Asymptotically optimal variance reduction in logarithmic scale.
Develops significance tests for neural networks without strong assumptions or excessive computation.
problem Addressing the black-box nature of deep neural networks for feature relevance testing.
method Derives one-split and two-split tests relaxing assumptions and computational complexity.
result Establishes asymptotic null distributions and consistency in Type II error.
Proposes a method for explaining black-box models with nested feature attributions.
problem Making black-box models transparent and trustworthy.
method Model-agnostic local explanation method exploiting nested feature structure and consistency property.
result Accurate and consistent HiFAs and LoFAs estimated using fewer model queries.
Proposes a new method to estimate variable importance in black box models, mitigating correlation effects.
problem Correlation between covariates affects the interpretation of variable importance parameters.
method Develops a modified LOCO (Leave Out COvariates) method and uses semiparametric models for estimation.
result Shows how to estimate a modified LOCO method that mitigates correlation effects.
Faced with distribution shift between training and test set, we wish to detect and quantify the shift, and to correct our classifiers without test set labels. Motivated by medical diagnosis, where diseases (targets) cause symptoms (observations), we focus on label shift, where the label marginal p(y) changes but the …
BBCI uses meta prediction to estimate causal effects from datasets.
problem Estimating causal effects from observed data.
method Meta prediction to learn causal effect estimation.
result BBCI accurately estimates ATEs and CATEs across various causal inference problems.
Matched Machine Learning combines machine learning and matching for causal inference.
problem Non-interpretable methods for causal inference.
method Combines machine learning and matching for interpretable causal inference.
result Performs as well as black-box machine learning methods and better than existing matching methods.
New method estimates selection event for black-box models.
problem Infeasibility of conditional selective inference due to unavailable selection event.
method Bootstrapping to estimate selection event and conditional distribution.
result Feasibility of conditional selective inference for models without exact selection event.
We interpret black box predictive models using causal attribution.
problem Interpreting models trained using machine learning in high-stakes applications.
method Estimate causal effects of model inputs on output using observational data.
result Effective interpretation of black box predictive models via causal attribution.
Optimal first-order methods are shown to be fundamental limits in functional estimation.
problem Optimal functional estimation under weak conditions.
method Formalization of functional estimation with black-box nuisance function estimates and derivation of minimax lower bounds.
result First-order methods are optimal under weak conditions, but higher-order methods can outperform them when nuisance function structure is known.
Adversarial examples pose a threat to deep neural network models in a variety of scenarios, from settings where the adversary has complete knowledge of the model and to the opposite "black box" setting. Black box attacks are particularly threatening as the adversary only needs access to the input and output of the mode…
GS-B3SE improves label shift estimation by smoothing priors on a graph.
problem Label shift adaptation when source and target distributions share conditional but not marginal probabilities.
method Graph-Smoothed Bayesian Black-Box Shift Estimator (GS-B3SE) places Laplacian-Gaussian priors on log-priors and confusion-matrix columns tied by a label-similarity graph. result GS-B3SE produces a tractable posterior with HMC or Newton-CG schemes, proving identifiability, contraction, and robustness. A new method for optimizing black-box problems with constraints.
problem Optimizing black-box systems with multiple performance criteria and constraints.
method Developed a novel constrained Bayesian optimization approach based on the knowledge gradient method.
result A new acquisition function that balances optimality and feasibility.
Improves scalability and efficiency of mixture models in black-box variational inference.
problem Scaling mixture models in black-box variational inference leads to high parameter and time costs.
method Introduces MISVAE for amortized mixture parameter space and new ELBO estimators.
result Achieves superior estimation performance with fewer parameters and shorter inference time.
BBVI with STL converges geometrically under perfect specification, with quadratic variance bound.
problem Convergence rate of BBVI with STL estimator.
method Proved geometric convergence rate with quadratic variance bound for BBVI with STL estimator.
result BBVI with STL converges geometrically under perfect variational family specification.
Deep-PrAE improves rare-event simulation for black-box systems.
problem Evaluating rare safety-critical events in learning-based systems.
method Combines deep neural networks with IS to create statistically guaranteed estimations.
result Deep-PrAE provides accurate bounds on safety-critical event probabilities.
Optimizes latent space of VAEs using decoder uncertainty to generate valid objects.
problem Lack of robustness in optimizing VAE latent space for black-box properties.
method Importance sampling-based estimator of decoder epistemic uncertainty to guide optimization.
result Improves trade-off between black-box objective and validity of generated samples.
We introduce overdispersed black-box variational inference, a method to reduce the variance of the Monte Carlo estimator of the gradient in black-box variational inference. Instead of taking samples from the variational distribution, we use importance sampling to take samples from an overdispersed distribution in the s…
We study proper losses for discrete generative models without knowing the target distribution.
problem Evaluating generative models in the discrete setting without direct access to the target distribution.
method Define and construct black-box proper losses using statistical estimation theory.
result Black-box proper losses must be of polynomial form and involve more samples than the polynomial degree.
Importance sampling is widely used in machine learning and statistics, but its power is limited by the restriction of using simple proposals for which the importance weights can be tractably calculated. We address this problem by studying black-box importance sampling methods that calculate importance weights for sampl…
Proposes a new MOBO framework for better estimation of uncertain parameters in expensive black-box functions.
problem Estimating the unknown utopia in multi-objective optimization problems with expensive black-box functions.
method Nested weighted Tchebycheff Multi-objective Bayesian Optimization (WTB-MOBO) with ensemble model selection.
result Improves MOBO performance by selecting the best model from an ensemble of predictive models.
New method reduces inference variance for faster optimization.
problem High variance in black-box variational inference.
method Joint control variate addressing both data subsampling and Monte Carlo noise.
result Significantly reduced gradient variance, leading to faster optimization.
Algorithm optimizes and infers performance online, improving reliability.
problem Balancing optimization and statistical inference in complex systems.
method Online algorithm that provides consistent performance variance and confidence intervals.
result Online consistent estimator for performance variance and asymptotic confidence intervals.
This work defines observation-specific explanations for black-box models.
problem Assigning importance to data points in black-box model predictions.
method Surrogate model construction using scattered data approximation and orthogonal matching pursuit.
result Validated approach on simulated and real-world datasets.
Latent force models are systems whereby there is a mechanistic model describing the dynamics of the system state, with some unknown forcing term that is approximated with a Gaussian process. If such dynamics are non-linear, it can be difficult to estimate the posterior state and forcing term jointly, particularly when …
Paper presents a robust transfer learning method for active level set estimation.
problem Efficiently identifying regions of a black-box function with limited function evaluations.
method Incorporates prior knowledge from a related function while locally adapting it.
result The method achieves better convergence of level sets compared to standard transfer learning.
Deep neural networks (DNNs) are known for their vulnerability to adversarial examples. These are examples that have undergone small, carefully crafted perturbations, and which can easily fool a DNN into making misclassifications at test time. Thus far, the field of adversarial research has mainly focused on image model…
New method optimizes expensive simulations for complex systems.
problem Optimizing complex systems with limited expensive experiments.
method Black-box Optimization via Marginal Means (BOMM) approach.
result BOMM improves optimization performance in high dimensions.
Paper advances black-box VI using flows and Monte-Carlo methods.
problem Improving automatic posterior inference in black-box VI.
method Combines normalizing flows, Monte-Carlo methods, and optimization considerations.
result Significant improvement in state-of-the-art variational inference.
We present a black-box adversarial attack algorithm which sets new state-of-the-art model evasion rates for query efficiency in the ℓ∞ and ℓ2 metrics, where only loss-oracle access to the model is available. On two public black-box attack challenges, the algorithm achieves the highest evasion rate, sur…
Solving for adversarial examples with projected gradient descent has been demonstrated to be highly effective in fooling the neural network based classifiers. However, in the black-box setting, the attacker is limited only to the query access to the network and solving for a successful adversarial example becomes much …
DiBO uses diffusion models to optimize high-dimensional black-box functions efficiently.
problem Optimizing high-dimensional and complex black-box functions efficiently.
method DiBO iterates two stages: training a diffusion model and casting candidate selection as posterior inference.
result DiBO outperforms state-of-the-art baselines across synthetic and real-world tasks.