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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

169,051 papers · 148 categories

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143287430573 · Jun 202019922001200920172026
48 results for black box prediction

Interpretable companion model for black-box classifiers.

problem Dilemma between interpretable and black-box models.
method Trains a companion model from data and black-box model predictions, optimizing a combination of accuracy and complexity.
result Companion model provides interpretable predictions with a slight accuracy loss for user choice.

Hybrid model combines interpretable and black-box models for better transparency and performance.

problem Balancing interpretability and predictive performance in machine learning models.
method Proposes a Hybrid Predictive Model (HPM) integrating an interpretable model with a black-box model, using principled objective functions and customized training algorithms.
result Hybrid models achieve an efficient trade-off between transparency and predictive performance.

MALC combines interpretable linear models with black-box models for better predictions and transparency.

problem Combining interpretability with black-box models for better predictions.
method Formulates MALC as a convex optimization problem and uses accelerated proximal gradient method for training.
result MALC provides an efficient frontier balancing prediction accuracy and transparency.

We interpret black box predictive models using causal attribution.

problem Interpreting models trained using machine learning in high-stakes applications.
method Estimate causal effects of model inputs on output using observational data.
result Effective interpretation of black box predictive models via causal attribution.

Develops method to assess feature importance in black-box models for unconditional distribution.

problem Lack of methods to analyze feature importance in black-box models for unconditional distribution.
method Approximation method to compute feature importance curves for unconditional distribution.
result Produces sparse and faithful results, computationally efficient.

Efficiently distills white-box adversarial attacks into black-box models.

problem Generating efficient adversarial examples for robustness.
method Train a model to emulate white-box attack behavior and distill it into a more efficient black-box model.
result Reduces adversarial example generation time by 19x-39x and transfers to black-box settings.

Paper proposes B3D method for black-box backdoor detection.

problem Detecting backdoor attacks in black-box models without access to training data.
method Gradient-free optimization to reverse-engineer triggers, simple strategy for reliable predictions.
result Effectiveness of B3D method corroborated on hundreds of DNN models.

We address challenges in collaborative black-box optimization through three frameworks.

problem Challenges in distributed experimentation, heterogeneity, and privacy in black-box optimization.
method Three unifying frameworks: global, local, and predictive.
result Shift from descriptive/predictive to prescriptive federated learning in black-box optimization.

Develops transparent global models consistent with local explanations.

problem Creating globally interpretable models that align with local explanations from black-box models.
method Custom boolean features from sparse local contrastive explanations are used to train a globally transparent model.
result Custom transparent models have higher local consistency compared to other strategies.

Paper exposes vulnerabilities in interpreting machine learning models using adversarial attacks on PD plots.

problem Vulnerability of permutation-based interpretation methods, particularly PD plots, to adversarial attacks.
method Adversarial framework to manipulate black-box models and produce deceptive PD plots.
result It is possible to hide discriminatory behaviors in machine learning models through interpretation tools like PD plots.

Paper explores how black box models can deviate from average performance.

problem Understanding and interpreting predictions from sophisticated black box models.
method Two general approaches to provide interpretable descriptions of black box classification model performance.
result Identifies regions where black box models deviate significantly from their average performance.

REST improves robustness of black-box models to geometric transformations.

problem Overconfident incorrect predictions on out-of-distribution samples.
method REinforcement Spatial Transform learner (REST) that transforms input data into in-distribution samples.
result Improves robustness to geometric transformations and sample efficiency.

Interpretable semi-supervised classifier for black-box models with two self-labeling strategies.

problem Lack of labeled data and difficulty in explaining black-box models.
method Combines black-box and white-box approaches for self-labeling and prediction.
result Superior prediction rates and interpretability compared to state-of-the-art classifiers.

BAR reprograms black-box ML models for transfer learning with scarce data.

problem Transfer learning with limited data and resources.
method Zeroth-order optimization and multi-label mapping techniques to reprogram black-box models.
result BAR outperforms state-of-the-art methods and baseline transfer learning approaches.

Analyzing large-scale, multi-experiment studies requires scientists to test each experimental outcome for statistical significance and then assess the results as a whole. We present Black Box FDR (BB-FDR), an empirical-Bayes method for analyzing multi-experiment studies when many covariates are gathered per experiment.…

2018-06-08abs ↗pdf ↗

Proposes a tabular transformer model to maintain feature effect intelligibility.

problem Losing marginal feature effects in deep tabular transformer networks.
method Adapts tabular transformer networks to identify marginal feature effects.
result The model accurately identifies marginal feature effects, matching black-box performance while maintaining intelligibility.

Proposes a method for explaining black-box models with nested feature attributions.

problem Making black-box models transparent and trustworthy.
method Model-agnostic local explanation method exploiting nested feature structure and consistency property.
result Accurate and consistent HiFAs and LoFAs estimated using fewer model queries.

LIMIS improves locally interpretable models by selecting and distilling key instances.

problem Low fidelity of locally interpretable models.
method LIMIS uses instance-wise subsampling guided by policy gradient and reward to improve fidelity.
result LIMIS near-matches black-box model accuracy while significantly improving fidelity.

Data-trained predictive models see widespread use, but for the most part they are used as black boxes which output a prediction or score. It is therefore hard to acquire a deeper understanding of model behavior, and in particular how different features influence the model prediction. This is important when interpreting…

2016-02-23abs ↗pdf ↗

Method uses elastic black-boxes to create interpretable models from complex ones.

problem Lack of trust and stability in opaque models and time-consuming feature engineering in interpretable models.
method Surrogate assisted feature extraction for model learning.
result Trains interpretable and accurate models without time-consuming feature engineering.

Proposes a method to explain black-box models using causal learning.

problem Existing explainability methods focus on micro-level inputs, not interpretable features.
method Learns causal graphical representations to differentiate between causal and confounding influences.
result Graphs can differentiate between interpretable and confounding features.

Improves model classification accuracy in black-box settings.

problem Difficulty in inferring model properties due to limited query access.
method Introduces discriminative factorization to distinguish high-quality queries.
result Probability of chance-level classification decreases exponentially with query budget.

Selective prediction-set models improve predictive reliability and uncertainty quantification.

problem Inaccurate and unreliable predictions from black-box models, especially for unfamiliar data.
method Training selective prediction-set models using uncertainty-aware loss minimization, and calculating well-calibrated prediction sets.
result Selective prediction-set models outperform existing approaches in predicting in-hospital mortality and length-of-stay for ICU patients.

Local surrogate models, to approximate the local decision boundary of a black-box classifier, constitute one approach to generate explanations for the rationale behind an individual prediction made by the back-box. This paper highlights the importance of defining the right locality, the neighborhood on which a local su…

2018-06-19abs ↗pdf ↗

Paper proposes hybrid approach for transparent credit scoring models.

problem Lack of transparency in machine learning models limits their use in regulated environments.
method Post-hoc interpretation of black-box models guides feature selection, followed by training glass-box models.
result Reduces feature usage from 106 to 10 while maintaining comparable performance.

DiBO uses diffusion models to optimize high-dimensional black-box functions efficiently.

problem Optimizing high-dimensional and complex black-box functions efficiently.
method DiBO iterates two stages: training a diffusion model and casting candidate selection as posterior inference.
result DiBO outperforms state-of-the-art baselines across synthetic and real-world tasks.

This work defines observation-specific explanations for black-box models.

problem Assigning importance to data points in black-box model predictions.
method Surrogate model construction using scattered data approximation and orthogonal matching pursuit.
result Validated approach on simulated and real-world datasets.

Bayesian optimization enhanced with conformal prediction for better outcome reliability.

problem Uncertainty and model misspecification in Bayesian optimization.
method Conformal prediction to provide coverage guarantees and Bayesian optimization to select queries.
result Significant improvement in query coverage without sacrificing sample-efficiency.

Efficient black-box evasion attacks against deep networks with fewer queries.

problem Optimizing targeted evasion attacks with limited query budget.
method Formalized problem, evaluated benefits of using substitute models, presented two new attack strategies.
result Attack strategies are as effective as previous techniques but require significantly fewer queries.

Interprets feature interactions in ad-click prediction models.

problem Improving interpretability of black-box recommender systems.
method Interprets feature interactions from a source model and encodes them in a target model.
result Interpretations significantly outperform existing recommender models.

Extends batch active learning to non-differentiable models.

problem Efficiently training machine learning models on large, initially unlabelled datasets.
method Black-box batch active learning for regression tasks that relies solely on model predictions.
result Achieves strong performance on regression datasets compared to white-box approaches for deep learning models.

This paper proposes a novel PGO framework to optimize systemic risk bailouts using neural networks.

problem Optimal bailout strategies for mitigating systemic risk in financial systems.
method Prediction-Gradient-Optimization (PGO) framework, using neural networks to approximate and forecast the objective function.
result The PGO framework effectively manages systemic risk through online optimization.

Wrapper improves black-box model auditability and decision trustworthiness.

problem Lack of transparency and auditability in machine learning models used in complex applications.
method Integrates uncertainty measures into black-box models to enhance auditability and decision trustworthiness.
result Improves trust in machine learning models by providing actionable mechanisms to reject uncertain predictions.

Split conformal prediction provides finite-sample guarantees for black-box models without distributional assumptions.

problem Weak performance guarantees for modern predictive models under minimal assumptions.
method Develops finite-sample guarantees for split conformal prediction, a method that uses nested prediction sets and order statistics.
result The coverage of prediction sets based on order statistics stochastically dominates the Beta distribution.

Paper proposes a black-box adversarial attack method for graph embedding models.

problem Robustness of graph embedding models against adversarial attacks.
method GF-Attack constructs a generalized adversarial attacker by the graph filter and feature matrix, performing the attack on the graph filter in a black-box fashion.
result GF-Attack can consistently make strong attacks on different graph embedding models even with small perturbations.