We propose a general method to obtain approximation of the first passage time distribution for the birth-death processes. We rely on the general properties of birth-death processes, Keilson's theorem and the concept of Riemann sum to obtain closed-form expressions. We apply the method to the three selected birth-death …
On-device research index
arXiv research
A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
168,742 papers · 148 categories
Trend · papers per month
48 results for “birth and death times”
Bessel-like birth-death processphysics.soc-ph
We consider models of the population or opinion dynamics which result in the non-linear stochastic differential equations (SDEs) exhibiting the spurious long-range memory. In this context, the correspondence between the description of the birth-death processes as the continuous-time Markov chains and the continuous SDE…
Study birth-death dynamics for sampling Gibbs measures with nonconvex potentials.
problem Sampling Gibbs measures with nonconvex potentials.
method Birth-death dynamics, Kullback-Leibler divergence, divergence, kernel-based approximations, -convergence of gradient flows.
result Probability density converges exponentially fast to Gibbs equilibrium measure with a universal rate.
Near a birth-death critical point in a one-parameter family of gradient flows, there are precisely two Morse critical points of index difference one on the birth side. This paper gives a self-contained proof of the folklore theorem that these two critical points are joined by a unique gradient trajectory up to time-shi…
A fundamental problem in Bayesian inference and statistical machine learning is to efficiently sample from multimodal distributions. Due to metastability, multimodal distributions are difficult to sample using standard Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. We propose a new sampling algorithm based on a birth-death mechanis…
FS&P uses birth-death process to ensure global convergence of stochastic conic particle gradient descent.
problem Global optimization of non-convex objective functions over measure space.
method Introduces Fast Spawn\&Prune (FS\&P) combining CPGD with birth-death process.
result First theoretical guarantee of global convergence for discrete-time stochastic algorithms.
New method uses birth-death process and exploration component to accelerate sampling from multimodal distributions.
problem Sampling from multimodal probability distributions efficiently.
method Combines birth-death process and exploration component to accelerate sampling.
result Proves exponential asymptotic convergence under mild assumptions.
Bayesian networks (BNs) are graphical models that are useful for representing high-dimensional probability distributions. There has been a great deal of interest in recent years in the NP-hard problem of learning the structure of a BN from observed data. Typically, one assigns a score to various structures and the sear…
Reinforcement Learning in a Birth and Death Process: Breaking the Dependence on the State Spacecs.LG
New RL algorithm reduces regret in birth-death queueing problems.
problem Efficiency of reinforcement learning in MDPs with large state spaces.
method Modified Ucrl2 algorithm exploiting birth-death structure.
result Regret bound of independent of state space size.
Decision trees are flexible models that are well suited for many statistical regression problems. In a Bayesian framework for regression trees, Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) search algorithms are required to generate samples of tree models according to their posterior probabilities. The critical component of such an …
Paper disproves conjecture about log-Sobolev constants.
problem Log-Sobolev constants and curvature bounds.
method Counterexample on birth-death chains.
result Conjecture about Ollivier curvature is incorrect.
We consider probabilistic programming for birth-death models of evolution and introduce a new widely-applicable inference method that combines an extension of the alive particle filter (APF) with automatic Rao-Blackwellization via delayed sampling. Birth-death models of evolution are an important family of phylogenetic…
New metrics and coordinates for barcode space using group theory.
problem Describing and measuring the space of barcodes.
method Geometric group theory applied to barcodes.
result Stratification of barcode space into regions with similar statistical properties.
Paper introduces a Bayesian nonparametric approach for tracking multiple objects with spawning events.
problem Tracking multiple objects with birth and death events (spawning).
method Bayesian nonparametric approach with MCMC sampling for unknown number of objects.
result Advantages of nonparametric modeling for scenarios with spawning events.
Flow Matching for Count Datastat.ML
Flow Matching for count data improves sample quality and efficiency.
problem Mapping between count distributions across batches or time points in high-dimensional count data.
method count-FM, a flow-matching framework based on a continuous-time birth-death process with local unit jumps.
result count-FM achieves better sample quality than representative baselines while using fewer parameters.
Paper proposes scalable method for analyzing multi-omic data.
problem Integrating high-dimensional multi-omic data for cancer subtyping.
method Mixed graphical model approach using Birth-Death MCMC algorithm.
result Our method outperforms LASSO and standard BDMCMC in computational efficiency and model selection accuracy.
Neural networks with a large number of parameters admit a mean-field description, which has recently served as a theoretical explanation for the favorable training properties of "overparameterized" models. In this regime, gradient descent obeys a deterministic partial differential equation (PDE) that converges to a glo…
In this paper, we study curvature dimension conditions on birth-death processes which correspond to linear graphs, i.e., weighted graphs supported on the infinite line or the half line. We give a combinatorial characterization of Bakry and Émery's condition for linear graphs and prove the triviality of edge w…
We propose a new Bayesian tracking and parameter learning algorithm for non-linear non-Gaussian multiple target tracking (MTT) models. We design a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm to sample from the posterior distribution of the target states, birth and death times, and association of observations to targets, …
Sketch-based community detection in evolving networksphysics.soc-ph
Sketch-based approach detects community events in evolving networks.
problem Community detection in time-varying networks.
method Maintains a small sketch graph to capture essential community structure.
result Efficiently identifies six key community events during network evolution.
Topic models have proven to be a useful tool for discovering latent structures in document collections. However, most document collections often come as temporal streams and thus several aspects of the latent structure such as the number of topics, the topics' distribution and popularity are time-evolving. Several mode…
The surgery technique of Gromov and Lawson may be used to construct families of positive scalar curvature metrics which are parameterised by Morse functions. This has played an important role in the study of the space of metrics of positive scalar curvature on a smooth manifold and its corresponding moduli spaces. In t…
We propose a Bayesian nonparametric approach to the problem of jointly modeling multiple related time series. Our model discovers a latent set of dynamical behaviors shared among the sequences, and segments each time series into regions defined by a subset of these behaviors. Using a beta process prior, the size of the…
We propose a Bayesian nonparametric approach to the problem of jointly modeling multiple related time series. Our approach is based on the discovery of a set of latent, shared dynamical behaviors. Using a beta process prior, the size of the set and the sharing pattern are both inferred from data. We develop efficient M…
Preterm birth is the most common cause of neonatal death. Current diagnostic methods that assess the risk of preterm birth involve the collection of maternal characteristics and transvaginal ultrasound imaging conducted in the first and second trimester of pregnancy. Analysis of the ultrasound data is based on visual i…
The paper develops a stationary-distribution theory for Random Forest ensemble size selection.
problem Determining the optimal number of trees in Random Forests.
method Modeling the ensemble size as a birth-death Markov chain and deriving its stationary distribution.
result The stationary ensemble size scales as as .
Two singular links are cobordant if one can be obtained from the other by singular link isotopy together with a combination of births or deaths of simple unknotted curves, and saddle point transformations. A movie description of a singular link cobordism in 4-space is a sequence of singular link diagrams obtained from …
Paper compares higher torsions and removes fiberwise Morse function assumption.
problem Comparing higher torsions from analytic and topological perspectives.
method Introduced fiberwise generalized Morse functions (GMFs) and excised neighborhoods around birth-death points.
result Established a generalized version of the higher Cheeger-Müller/Bismut-Zhang theorem.
USD algorithm transports distributions with or without mass conservation.
problem Transporting distributions with different masses.
method Particle descent algorithm using Sobolev-Fisher discrepancy.
result USD converges to target distribution in MMD sense.
EAP clusters evolving data, promoting temporal smoothness and automatic cluster tracking.
problem Clustering time-evolving data with temporal smoothness and automatic cluster identification.
method Evolutionary Affinity Propagation (EAP) on a factor graph exchanging messages between adjacent data snapshots.
result EAP clusters data with temporal smoothness and automatically tracks clusters, outperforming existing methods.
In recent years, multi object tracking (MOT) problem has drawn attention to it and has been studied in various research areas. However, some of the challenging problems including time dependent cardinality, unordered measurement set, and object labeling remain unclear. In this paper, we propose robust nonparametric met…
App enhances midwives' skills in low-income countries.
problem Low-income countries have high maternal and child mortality rates.
method Deep learning models predict midwives' interest in learning materials.
result Deep learning models accurately predict midwives' interest in learning materials.
Machine learning automates digitization of historical data.
problem Manual transcription is costly and difficult for large, detailed datasets.
method Apply machine learning techniques for unsupervised layout classification and attention-based neural networks.
result Machine learning can automate the digitization process for historical data.
Study estimates personalized effects of maternal PM2.5 exposure on birth weight.
problem Identify critical windows and heterogeneity in maternal PM2.5 exposure effects on birth weight.
method Heterogeneous Distributed Lag Models and Bayesian Additive Regression Trees.
result Evidence of heterogeneity in PM2.5-birth weight relationship, with some dyads showing 3x larger decrease.
This work develops sampling methods for differential privacy using SHK geometry.
problem Approximating sampling for the exponential mechanism in differential privacy.
method Develops perturbation theory for SHK gradient flows and applies to differential privacy.
result Derives time-dependent Pure-DP guarantees and Approximate-DP certificates.
New method optimizes multiple objectives using particle dynamics and gradient flow.
problem Optimizing multiple conflicting objectives in complex scenarios.
method Interacting particle method combining Langevin and birth-death dynamics with a dominance potential.
result Method effectively relocates dominated particles, improving Pareto optimality.
Relational data-like graphs, networks, and matrices-is often dynamic, where the relational structure evolves over time. A fundamental problem in the analysis of time-varying network data is to extract a summary of the common structure and the dynamics of the underlying relations between the entities. Here we build on t…
Stein transport improves Bayesian inference with faster convergence and reduced variance.
problem Efficiently approximating posterior distributions in Bayesian inference.
method A novel Bayesian inference method using Stein transport, which pushes particles along a curve of tempered distributions.
result Stein transport reaches posterior approximations faster and more accurately than Stein variational gradient descent (SVGD).
A (reactive) lattice-gas approach to economic cyclescond-mat.stat-mech
A microscopic approach to macroeconomic features is intended. A model for macroeconomic behavior under heterogeneous spatial economic conditions is reviewed. A birth-death lattice gas model taking into account the influence of an economic environment on the fitness and concentration evolution of economic entities is nu…
Study non-negative curvature Markov chains, proving entropy contraction.
problem Prove entropy contraction for Markov chains with non-negative curvature.
method Prove 1-step contraction in Wasserstein distance implies 1-step contraction in relative entropy.
result Prove MLSI with constant equal to minimal rate increment for mean-field zero-range process.
The study establishes a curvature-dimension condition for discrete Markov chains.
problem Proving modified logarithmic Sobolev inequalities for discrete Markov chains.
method Identifying and proving a curvature-dimension inequality , and showing its compatibility with diffusive settings.
result The condition preserves curvature bounds under tensorization and leads to Beckner inequalities.
Motivated by empirical data, we develop a statistical description of the queue dynamics for large tick assets based on a two-dimensional Fokker-Planck (diffusion) equation, that explicitly includes state dependence, i.e. the fact that the drift and diffusion depends on the volume present on both sides of the spread. "J…
According to Kiyoshi Igusa a generalized Morse function on an n-dimensional manifold M is a smooth function with only Morse and birth-death singularities and a framed function is a generalized Morse function with an additional structure: a framing of the negative eigenspace at each critical point of the function f. In …
We study the maps induced on link Floer homology by elementary decorated link cobordisms. We compute these for births, deaths, stabilizations, and destabilizations, and show that saddle cobordisms can be computed in terms of maps in a decorated skein exact triangle that extends the oriented skein exact triangle in knot…
Neural models learn continuous-time Markov chain transition rates from data.
problem Learning transition rates for complex stochastic systems.
method Neural networks to model nonlinear transition rates from observed data.
result Neural models outperform traditional methods in accuracy.
Model predicts US COVID-19 deaths with quantile estimates.
problem Predicting US COVID-19 deaths at county level.
method Hybrid machine learning and epidemiological approach, minimizing pinball loss.
result Quantile estimates accurately forecast deaths for different forecast periods.
In this paper, we focus on online representation learning in non-stationary environments which may require continuous adaptation of model architecture. We propose a novel online dictionary-learning (sparse-coding) framework which incorporates the addition and deletion of hidden units (dictionary elements), and is inspi…
Framework learns dynamic graph attributes and links co-evolution.
problem Forecasting change of node attributes and link formation in dynamic graphs.
method CoEvoGNN framework with temporal self-attention and joint optimization.
result Framework outperforms baselines on predicting unseen graph snapshots.