We describe in this paper the theory and practice behind a new modal clustering method for binary data. Our approach (BinNNMS) is based on the nearest neighbor median shift. The median shift is an extension of the well-known mean shift, which was designed for continuous data, to handle binary data. We demonstrate that …
The paper analyzes recalibration methods for binary classifiers under distribution shift.
problem Recalibrating binary classifiers to match a target prior probability.
method Analysis of distribution shift assumptions and proposal of new recalibration methods.
result QMM methods provide conservative results for risk weights functions.
New method improves accuracy of quantized neural networks.
problem Accuracy drop in quantized neural networks, especially MobileNet family.
method Weight equalizing shift scaler, binary shifting to recover output range.
result Top-1 accuracy improved from 0.1% to 69.78% ~ 70.96% in MobileNets.
Paper analyzes impact of PRM on binary random variables and distribution shifts.
problem Impact of performative risk minimization on binary random variables and distribution shifts.
method Formulated two measures of impact, derived explicit formulas for full information, and provided estimators for partial information.
result PRM can have amplified side effects compared to methods that do not model data shift.
A new control chart detects shifts in binary data streams quickly and reliably.
problem Early detection of small shifts in multiple binary data streams.
method Cumulative Standardized Binomial EWMA (CSB-EWMA) chart with exact variance derivation.
result Adaptive control limits ensure robust detection across different data distributions.
The paper explores how machine learning models can be learnable despite label shifts.
problem Learnability of binary classification models in the presence of label shifts.
method Developed a performative empirical risk function that is an unbiased estimate of the true risk on the shifted distribution.
result PAC-learnable hypothesis spaces remain PAC-learnable for performative scenarios.
Friedman's method performs well for estimating class distributions.
problem Estimating prior class probabilities without label observations.
method Friedman's method and DeBias method for designing linear equation systems.
result Friedman's method performs well for binary and multi-class quantification.
Reduces quantifier variance with accuracy optimization of base classifier.
problem Minimizing quantifier variance under prior probability shift.
method Optimizes the Brier score of a base classifier for training data.
result Optimizing Brier score on training data reduces quantifier variance on test data.
Algorithm learns binary function efficiently under arbitrary covariate shift.
problem Learning binary function under arbitrary distributions P and Q.
method PQ-learning algorithm using reliable learner with selective classification.
result Polynomial-time algorithm for covariate shift learning.
Study addresses RTB model performance drops due to distribution shifts.
problem Distribution shifts between training and target environments in RTB markets.
method Applies Exponential Tilt Reweighting Alignment (ExTRA) algorithm to estimate and correct model weights.
result Demonstrates improved RTB model performance using ExTRA algorithm.
Deep neural networks (DNN) are powerful models for many pattern recognition tasks, yet their high computational complexity and memory requirement limit them to applications on high-performance computing platforms. In this paper, we propose a new method to evaluate DNNs trained with 32bit floating point (float32) accura…
New method estimates density ratio for well-separated distributions using multi-class logistic regression.
problem Challenges in estimating density ratio for well-separated distributions.
method Uses multi-class logistic regression with auxiliary densities to estimate log(p/q).
result Demonstrates superior performance on density ratio estimation, mutual information, and representation learning tasks.
The paper proves a new method to improve generalization in covariate-shift scenarios.
problem Improving performance on test distributions that differ from training distributions.
method Independence-driven importance weighting algorithms for feature selection.
result Theoretical proof that these algorithms can identify optimal variables for covariate-shift generalization.
Efficiently poisons offline RLHF models by flipping preference labels.
problem Vulnerability of offline RLHF models to preference label flipping attacks.
method Developed two attack methods: BAL-A and BMP-A, solving a structured binary sparse approximation problem.
result Demonstrated that flipping one preference label induces a parameter-independent shift in the DPO gradient, enabling structured binary sparse approximation.
Generalizes prediction-powered inference for binary classifier evaluation.
problem Evaluation of binary classifiers with partially observed outcomes.
method Generalizes PPI to any regular asymptotically linear estimator and proposes modified estimators for covariate shift.
result PPI can be a computationally-simple alternative to existing methods, achieving no greater than the semi-parametric efficiency lower bound in certain scenarios.
Bayesian method adapts to unknown distribution shifts in online learning.
problem Online learning with unknown and irregular distribution shifts.
method Bayesian inference with change-point detection and beam search.
result Improves adaptation to new data distributions over state-of-the-art methods.
Bottlenecks of binary classification from positive and unlabeled data (PU classification) are the requirements that given unlabeled patterns are drawn from the test marginal distribution, and the penalty of the false positive error is identical to the false negative error. However, such requirements are often not fulfi…
Undersampling often outperforms other methods in nonparametric classification.
problem Distribution shift challenges in nonparametric binary classification.
method Proved undersampling is minimax optimal in worst-case scenarios.
result Undersampling is a robustness intervention with theoretical guarantees.
Study three types of uncertainty quantification for binary classification without distributional assumptions.
problem Uncertainty quantification for binary classification in a distribution-free setting.
method Established theorems connecting calibration, confidence intervals, and prediction sets for score-based classifiers.
result Distribution-free calibration is only possible using scoring functions that partition feature space into countably many sets.
The classic N p chart gives a signal if the number of successes in a sequence of inde- pendent binary variables exceeds a control limit. Motivated by engineering applications in industrial image processing and, to some extent, financial statistics, we study a simple modification of this chart, which uses only the most …
Theoretical and empirical taxonomy of imbalance in binary classification.
problem Class imbalance degrades binary classification performance.
method Proposed a principled framework based on three scales: imbalance coefficient, sample-dimension ratio, and intrinsic separability. Derived closed-form Bayes errors and analyzed degradation across models.
result The triplet (η, κ, Δ) provides a model-agnostic explanation of imbalance-induced deterioration.
The law of total probability may be deployed in binary classification exercises to estimate the unconditional class probabilities if the class proportions in the training set are not representative of the population class proportions. We argue that this is not a conceptually sound approach and suggest an alternative ba…
New algorithms achieve better regret bounds for online classification with relaxed benchmarks.
problem Competing with worst-case optimal binary loss in online classification.
method Comparing against predictors robust to small input perturbations, performing well under Gaussian smoothing, or maintaining a prescribed output margin.
result Regret guarantees depend only on VC dimension and instance space complexity, with an O(log(1/γ)) dependence on the generalized margin. Positive-unlabeled (PU) learning trains a binary classifier using only positive and unlabeled data. A common simplifying assumption is that the positive data is representative of the target positive class. This assumption rarely holds in practice due to temporal drift, domain shift, and/or adversarial manipulation. Thi…
SHIFT improves robustness in estimating dose-response functions with heavy-tailed contamination.
problem Outliers bias estimates of average dose-response functions in heavy-tailed data.
method SHIFT combines cross-fit nuisance orthogonalization, Welsch-loss, and defensive OLS refit.
result SHIFT reduces RMSE from 1.03 to 0.33 on localized contamination test.
SurvITE learns treatment effects from time-to-event data, addressing unique challenges.
problem Inferring heterogeneous treatment effects from time-to-event data.
method Proposes a novel deep learning method for treatment-specific hazard estimation.
result Method outperforms baselines by addressing covariate shifts from various sources.
The study simplifies assessing overlap in logistic regression models using empirical likelihood.
problem Assessing overlap in multidimensional logistic regression models.
method Translation of Silvapulle's condition to empirical likelihood maximization, mechanized with R code.
result Minimal overlapping structures are cataloged in dimensions less than four, providing rules for higher dimensions.
Study shows how high-budget agents can manipulate prediction markets.
problem Manipulation of prediction markets by high-budget agents.
method Agent-based simulations and analytic characterization of price dynamics.
result High-budget agents can temporarily shift prediction market prices.
NeuralCSA uses neural networks to analyze causal effects under unobserved confounding.
problem Challenges in causal inference from observational data due to unobserved confounding.
method Proposes a neural framework (NeuralCSA) for generalized causal sensitivity analysis.
result Demonstrates theoretical and empirical validity of NeuralCSA for causal inference.
Medical imaging systems are commonly assessed by use of objective image quality measures. Supervised deep learning methods have been investigated to implement numerical observers for task-based image quality assessment. However, labeling large amounts of experimental data to train deep neural networks is tedious, expen…
Nonlinear kernel regression models are often used in statistics and machine learning because they are more accurate than linear models. Variable selection for kernel regression models is a challenge partly because, unlike the linear regression setting, there is no clear concept of an effect size for regression coeffici…
Overfitting in deep learning has been the focus of a number of recent works, yet its exact impact on the behavior of neural networks is not well understood. This study analyzes overfitting by examining how the distribution of logits alters in relation to how much the model overfits. Specifically, we find that when trai…
In this paper, we consider the matrix completion problem when the observations are one-bit measurements of some underlying matrix M, and in particular the observed samples consist only of ones and no zeros. This problem is motivated by modern applications such as recommender systems and social networks where only "like…
ECI improves time series prediction uncertainty quantification by smoothing miscoverage error.
problem Challenges in uncertainty quantification for time series prediction due to temporal dependence and distribution shift.
method Error-quantified Conformal Inference (ECI) by smoothing quantile loss function and introducing adaptive feedback scale.
result ECI achieves valid miscoverage control and tighter prediction sets than existing methods.
In the problem of domain adaptation for binary classification, the learner is presented with labeled examples from a source domain, and must correctly classify unlabeled examples from a target domain, which may differ from the source. Previous work on this problem has assumed that the performance measure of interest is…
Algorithm predicts with optimal loss by abstaining from uncertain test examples.
problem Predicting with training data not matching test data.
method Transductive abstention algorithm using labeled and unlabeled test examples.
result Optimal prediction loss guarantees with additional term for abstaining cost.
Unified framework for estimating density ratios across multiple distributions.
problem Binary density ratio estimation for multiple distributions.
method Unified framework based on Bregman divergence minimization.
result Generalization of binary DRE methods to multiple distributions.
An active learner is given a class of models, a large set of unlabeled examples, and the ability to interactively query labels of a subset of these examples; the goal of the learner is to learn a model in the class that fits the data well. Previous theoretical work has rigorously characterized label complexity of activ…
VBphenoR uses variational Bayes for EHR-based patient phenotyping.
problem Phenotyping patients from EHR data for targeted treatments.
method Variational Bayes Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM) and logistic regression.
result Closed-form inference for efficient patient phenotype determination.
Learning the undirected graph structure of a Markov network from data is a problem that has received a lot of attention during the last few decades. As a result of the general applicability of the model class, a myriad of methods have been developed in parallel in several research fields. Recently, as the size of the c…
In this paper, we formulate a new local move on virtual knot diagram, called arc shift move. Further, we extend it to another local move called region arc shift defined on a region of a virtual knot diagram. We establish that these arc shift and region arc shift moves are unknotting operations by showing that any virtu…
Unsupervised domain adaptation improves with privileged information.
problem Domain adaptation under covariate shift and overlap limitations.
method Two-stage learning algorithm inspired by expected error analysis.
result Using privileged information reduces errors and increases sample efficiency.
C-MinHash reduces the number of permutations needed for MinHash from thousands to just two.
problem Approximating Jaccard similarity in large binary datasets using many permutations.
method Initial permutation followed by circulant shifting of a second permutation to generate hashes.
result C-MinHash achieves unbiased Jaccard similarity estimation with uniformly smaller variance.
Study on unknotting twisted knots using arc shift and region arc shift moves.
problem Unknotting twisted knots and finding bounds for region arc shift number.
method Introduced arc shift move and region arc shift move for twisted knots.
result Found families of twisted knots with specific arc shift and region arc shift numbers.
Study detects concept shift in online data using martingales.
problem Detecting concept shift in online datasets.
method Exchangeable martingales and conformal prediction techniques.
result Decomposes concept shift into detectable components.
Paper proposes SJS model to estimate model performance under covariate and label shifts.
problem Estimating model performance when both covariates and labels shift.
method Sparse Joint Shift (SJS) model and SEES algorithm.
result SEES achieves significant shift estimation error improvements over existing approaches.
Extends FJS analysis to general label spaces, including classification and regression.
problem Distribution shift in general label spaces, including covariate and label shifts.
method Proposes a framework for analyzing FJS in general label spaces and generalizes existing results.
result Generalizes FJS analysis to general label spaces, including classification and regression.
Adam avoids simplicity bias in neural networks, leading to better generalization.
problem Simplicity bias in neural networks trained with SGD.
method Comparison of Adam and GD on binary classification tasks with Gaussian data.
result Adam leads to richer and more diverse features, improving generalization.