The paper discusses building ETF risk models using a multilevel classification taxonomy.
problem Building accurate risk models for ETFs.
method First, build a multilevel classification taxonomy for ETFs. Then, use this taxonomy to define risk factors and build risk models.
result The approach can accurately classify and model ETF risks.
In statistical learning theory, convex surrogates of the 0-1 loss are highly preferred because of the computational and theoretical virtues that convexity brings in. This is of more importance if we consider smooth surrogates as witnessed by the fact that the smoothness is further beneficial both computationally- by at…
Paper bounds convergence rate of adversarial surrogate risk.
problem Vulnerability of binary classification models to adversarial attacks.
method Characterizes conditions for adversarial consistency and provides surrogate risk bounds.
result Surrogate risk bounds quantify the rate of convergence of adversarial classification risk.
Sensitivity analysis for individualized effects in OTRs with binary risk factors.
problem Addressing omitted confounding in individualized effects of OTRs.
method Simulation-based sensitivity analysis to simulate unmeasured confounders.
result Benchmarking the strength of omitted confounding for binary risk factors.
Random forest models predict CLABSI risk in hospital admissions, with static models performing similarly to dynamic ones.
problem Predicting CLABSI risk in hospital admissions using EHR data with competing risks.
method Comparison of static and dynamic random forest models for binary, multinomial, survival, and competing risks outcomes.
result Static and dynamic random forest models perform similarly in predicting CLABSI risk, with multinomial models having the lowest computation times.
New method separates model and non-model risks for more practical asset pricing.
problem Asset pricing under model-uncertainty.
method Binary model-risks and constraints over preferences; unique model-risk pricing formula.
result Unique model-risk pricing formula with dynamically conserved constant.
Sharp bounds on binary model inference performance.
problem High-dimensional inference in binary models.
method Convex empirical risk minimization, sharp asymptotics, optimal performance bounds.
result Sharp predictions and optimal performance bounds for binary models.
In this article, we study the problem of pricing defaultable bond with discrete default intensity and barrier under constant risk free short rate using higher order binary options and their integrals. In our credit risk model, the risk free short rate is a constant and the default event occurs in an expected manner whe…
Paper ranks stocks by compression risk, not volatility.
problem Investment risk not correlated with stock price volatility.
method Binary-ternary compressive coding of price change time series.
result Compression risk is a better indicator of stock investment risk.
The paper analyzes recalibration methods for binary classifiers under distribution shift.
problem Recalibrating binary classifiers to match a target prior probability.
method Analysis of distribution shift assumptions and proposal of new recalibration methods.
result QMM methods provide conservative results for risk weights functions.
Develops a binary tree model for option pricing with skew dynamics.
problem Option pricing in incomplete markets with skew dynamics.
method Binary tree model with skew Brownian motion dynamics.
result Model preserves skewness under both discrete and continuous time limits.
Paper analyzes impact of PRM on binary random variables and distribution shifts.
problem Impact of performative risk minimization on binary random variables and distribution shifts.
method Formulated two measures of impact, derived explicit formulas for full information, and provided estimators for partial information.
result PRM can have amplified side effects compared to methods that do not model data shift.
Optimal cutoff interval for risk scores improves binary classification accuracy.
problem Improving binary classification accuracy with abstention.
method Determines optimal cutoff interval for risk scores, refraining from decisions outside this interval.
result Minimizes classification margin and maximizes accuracy within the interval.
We give a simple explicit algorithm for building multi-factor risk models. It dramatically reduces the number of or altogether eliminates the risk factors for which the factor covariance matrix needs to be computed. This is achieved via a nested "Russian-doll" embedding: the factor covariance matrix itself is modeled v…
Empirical risk minimization (ERM), with proper loss function and regularization, is the common practice of supervised classification. In this paper, we study training arbitrary (from linear to deep) binary classifier from only unlabeled (U) data by ERM. We prove that it is impossible to estimate the risk of an arbitrar…
New research shows that binary classification can be done with noisy data, but only if there are clean samples available.
problem Learning binary classification with instance and label dependent label noise.
method Theoretical analysis and empirical risk minimization.
result Empirical risk minimization achieves the optimal excess risk bound without additional assumptions.
Risk bounds for Classification and Regression Trees (CART, Breiman et. al. 1984) classifiers are obtained under a margin condition in the binary supervised classification framework. These risk bounds are obtained conditionally on the construction of the maximal deep binary tree and permit to prove that the linear penal…
New geometric insights reveal properties of adversarial training problems.
problem Adversarial training in binary classification.
method Equivalence with regularized risk minimization and convex relaxations.
result Existence of minimal and maximal solutions, and regular solutions.
New method turns optimization algorithms into uniformly stable learning algorithms for non-Euclidean norms.
problem Non-Euclidean norms in binary classification problems.
method Black-box reduction method using uniformly convex regularizers.
result Achieves optimal statistical risk bounds on excess risk for non-Euclidean norms.
Study on double descent behavior in two-layer neural networks for binary classification.
problem Understanding the double descent phenomenon in model test error.
method Two-layer neural network with ReLU activation for binary classification. Quantified model size by sample-to-dimension ratio. Empirical risk minimization using Convex Gaussian Min Max Theorem.
result Observed and investigated the double descent behavior of model test error.
Defines diversification as a binary relationship between financial portfolios.
problem Defines diversification in a new binary relationship for financial portfolios.
method Proposes a new definition of diversification based on convex linear combinations and second order stochastic dominance.
result The proposed definition coincides with second order stochastic dominance.
Defines computable learning for binary classification over metric spaces.
problem Defines computable PAC learning for binary classification over computable metric spaces.
method Provides sufficient conditions for ERM learners to be computable and bounds the strong Weihrauch degree of an ERM learner.
result Gives a hypothesis class that does not admit any proper computable PAC learner with computable sample function.
We consider a standard binary classification problem. The performance of any binary classifier based on the training data is characterized by the excess risk. We study Bahadur's type exponential bounds on the minimax accuracy confidence function based on the excess risk. We study how this quantity depends on the comple…
We present α-loss, α∈[1,∞], a tunable loss function for binary classification that bridges log-loss (α=1) and 0-1 loss (α=∞). We prove that α-loss has an equivalent margin-based form and is classification-calibrated, two desirable properties for a good surrogate loss function for the ideal y…
Paper shows similarity learning can lead to strong binary classification performance.
problem How similarity learning can lead to good classification performance.
method Product-type formulation of similarity learning is connected to binary classification through an excess risk bound.
result Similarity learning can directly elicit a decision boundary for binary classification.
New approach improves classification guarantees by focusing on direction rather than regression risk.
problem Improving classification guarantees in binary classification problems.
method Establishing a geometric distinction between classification and regression, leveraging scale invariance.
result Improved guarantees for classification risk compared to regression risk.
The paper explores how machine learning models can be learnable despite label shifts.
problem Learnability of binary classification models in the presence of label shifts.
method Developed a performative empirical risk function that is an unbiased estimate of the true risk on the shifted distribution.
result PAC-learnable hypothesis spaces remain PAC-learnable for performative scenarios.
Paper improves DP-ERM for binary linear classification with large-margin subsets.
problem Differentially private binary linear classification with large-margin subsets.
method Efficient (ε,δ)-DP algorithm with empirical zero-one risk bound. result Improved empirical zero-one risk bound for binary linear classification.
We consider the problem of binary classification where one can, for a particular cost, choose not to classify an observation. We present a simple proof for the oracle inequality for the excess risk of structural risk minimizers using a lasso type penalty.
The paper sets information-theoretic lower bounds for neural networks' parameter recovery and excess risk.
problem Establishing sample complexity lower bounds for neural network parameters and excess risk.
method Using information-theoretic tools, the paper proves lower bounds by constructing a generative network.
result Proves information-theoretic lower bounds for exact parameter recovery and positive excess risk.
Paper analyzes adversarial training's performance in binary classification.
problem Understanding the generalization performance of adversarial training.
method Derives precise theoretical predictions for adversarial training performance.
result Provides exact asymptotics for test errors of adversarial training.
New method improves model risk prediction using cross-audit projection.
problem Over-optimism in K-fold CV for binary classification. method Cross-audit projection (CAP) procedure combining resampling and asymptotic bias correction.
result CAP estimator achieves second-order asymptotic unbiasedness.
Paper tackles weakly supervised learning from similarity-confidence data.
problem Learning binary classifier from unlabeled data pairs with confidence of similarity.
method Proposes an unbiased estimator of classification risk from Sconf data and risk correction scheme.
result Demonstrates effectiveness of proposed methods through experiments.
This paper analyzes the training dynamics of binary neural networks using information bottleneck.
problem Training binary neural networks is challenging due to discontinuity in activation functions.
method The approach uses the Information Bottleneck principle to analyze BNN training dynamics.
result Training dynamics of BNNs are different from DNNs, with both phases occurring simultaneously.
Early stopping improves neural networks' performance on binary classification tasks.
problem Improving shallow ReLU networks' performance on binary classification tasks.
method Gradient descent with early stopping on binary classification data.
result Gradient descent with early stopping achieves population risk arbitrarily close to optimal.
Where machine-learned predictive risk scores inform high-stakes decisions, such as bail and sentencing in criminal justice, fairness has been a serious concern. Recent work has characterized the disparate impact that such risk scores can have when used for a binary classification task. This may not account, however, fo…
A matrix completion problem, which aims to recover a complete matrix from its partial observations, is one of the important problems in the machine learning field and has been studied actively. However, there is a discrepancy between the mainstream problem setting, which assumes continuous-valued observations, and some…
Paper discusses extending Gini score for tied rankings and case weights.
problem Extending Gini score for tied rankings and case weights.
method Discuss and adapt Gini score for ties and case weights.
result Gini score can be used for tied rankings and case weights.
ConvResNets approximate Besov functions and classify on low-dimensional manifolds.
problem Lack of statistical theories for deep learning on high-dimensional data.
method Exploits low-dimensional geometric structures of real-world data sets using ConvResNets.
result ConvResNets can approximate Besov functions and learn classifiers with optimal excess risk.
Malware constitutes a major global risk affecting millions of users each year. Standard algorithms in detection systems perform insufficiently when dealing with malware passed through obfuscation tools. We illustrate this studying in detail an open source metamorphic software, making use of a hybrid framework to obtain…
In statistical inference problems, we wish to obtain lower bounds on the minimax risk, that is to bound the performance of any possible estimator. A standard technique to obtain risk lower bounds involves the use of Fano's inequality. In an information-theoretic setting, it is known that Fano's inequality typically doe…
Algorithmic insurance tackles financial risks from AI errors, proving CVaR-optimal thresholds reduce tail risk.
problem High-stakes AI errors lead to heterogeneous losses, challenging traditional insurance assumptions.
method Analyzed binary classification performance to tail risk exposure, using CVaR to quantify extreme losses.
result CVaR-optimal thresholds reduce tail risk up to 13-fold compared to accuracy maximization.
The paper provides theoretical guarantees for neural network-based anomaly detection.
problem Theoretical guarantees for unsupervised neural network-based anomaly detection.
method Casting anomaly detection as a binary classification problem, establishing non-asymptotic upper bounds and convergence rates.
result The convergence rate on the excess risk matches the minimax optimal rate.
This paper analyzes neural network classifiers' performance in binary classification.
problem Performance of neural network classifiers in binary classification problems.
method Plug-in classifiers based on neural networks, considering a more general function class and surrogate loss.
result Dimension-free, uniform rate of convergence for the excess risk of neural networks, showing minimax optimality.
Develops a new framework for perpetual futures on binary prediction markets.
problem Lack of effective risk management in perpetual futures on binary prediction markets.
method PIRAP framework with six components: index estimator, margin sizing, leverage, funding rule, halt protocol, and eligibility framework.
result Mixed results from empirical evaluation, with some pre-registered floors passing and others failing.
The paper develops methods for constructing confidence regions for regression functions in binary classification.
problem Building distribution-free confidence regions for regression functions in binary classification.
method Resampling test and empirical risk minimization approach for model classes with finite pseudo-dimensions and inverse Lipschitz parameterizations.
result Strong uniform consistency and exponential probably approximately correct bounds on the L2 sizes of the regions. We have developed a strategy for the analysis of newly available binary data to improve outcome predictions based on existing data (binary or non-binary). Our strategy involves two modeling approaches for the newly available data, one combining binary covariate selection via LASSO with logistic regression and one based…
Good predictors of ICU Mortality have the potential to identify high-risk patients earlier, improve ICU resource allocation, or create more accurate population-level risk models. Machine learning practitioners typically make choices about how to represent features in a particular model, but these choices are seldom eva…