A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Microstructure of market dynamics is studied through analysis of tick price data. Linear trend is introduced as a tool for such analysis. Trend arbitrage inequality is developed and tested. The inequality sets limiting relationship between trend, bid-ask spread, market reaction and average update frequency of price inf…
Quantum theory explains price dynamics in financial markets, capturing bid-ask spread and ergodicity.
We introduce, in continuous time, an axiomatic approach to assign to any financial position a dynamic ask (resp. bid) price process. Taking into account both transaction costs and liquidity risk this leads to the convexity (resp. concavity) of the ask (resp. bid) price. Time consistency is a crucial property for dynami…
A new model predicts bid-ask spread dynamics in financial markets.
We derive a continuous time model for the joint evolution of the mid price and the bid-ask spread from a multiscale analysis of the whole limit order book (LOB) dynamics. We model the LOB as a multiclass queueing system and perform our asymptotic analysis using stylized features observed empirically. We argue that in t…
Model predicts bid and ask price dynamics with spread-dependent intensities.
Study optimal semi-static hedging for illiquid markets using dynamic cash and static quoted derivatives.
We study time consistent dynamic pricing mechanisms of European contingent claims under uncertainty by using G framework introduced by Peng ([24]). We consider a financial market consisting of a riskless asset and a risky stock with price process modelled by a geometric generalized G-Brownian motion, which features the…
The target of this paper is to establish the bid-ask pricing frame work for the American contingent claims against risky assets with G-asset price systems (see \cite{Chen2013b}) on the financial market under Knight uncertainty. First, we prove G-Dooby-Meyer decomposition for G-supermartingale. Furthermore, we consider …
A new relaxed framework for pricing illiquid derivatives using bid-ask spreads.
Study examines new financial metrics and their implications for trading and risk management.
Develops a model for bid and ask prices using stochastic control.
The paper proposes estimators for bid-ask spreads with and without serial dependence.
The paper analyzes the joint dynamics of prices and order flow in electronic order books.
This work's purpose is to understand the dynamics of limit order books in order-driven markets. We try to illustrate a dynamical trading mechanism attached to the microstructure of limit order markets. We capture the iterative nature of trading processes, which is critical in the dynamics of bid-ask pairs and the switc…
Kriging predicts futures prices by accounting for trends and bid-ask spreads.
We consider a stochastic model for the dynamics of the two-sided limit order book (LOB). Our model is flexible enough to allow for a dependence of the price dynamics on volumes. For the joint dynamics of best bid and ask prices and the standing buy and sell volume densities, we derive a functional limit theorem, which …
In an -framework, we present a few extension theorems for linear operators. We focus the attention on majorant preserving and sandwich preserving types of extensions. These results are then applied to the study of price systems derived by a reasonable restriction of the class of equivalent martingale measures…
We price weather-contingent options by use of Monte Carlo simulations. After calibrating the models to fit quoted prices, we analyze bid-ask spreads in terms of correlations across markets. Results are presented for a double-trigger Weather vs. Natural Gas call option.
In this paper a finite discrete time market with an arbitrary state space and bid-ask spreads is considered. The notion of an equivalent bid-ask martingale measure (EBAMM) is introduced and the fundamental theorem of asset pricing is proved using (EBAMM) as an equivalent condition for no-arbitrage. The Cox-Ross-Rubinst…
In our empirical study, we examine the price of liquid stocks after experiencing a large intraday price change using data from the NYSE and the NASDAQ. We find significant reversal for both intraday price decreases and increases. The results are stable against varying parameters. While on the NYSE the large widening of…
Method determines asset prices in incomplete markets to optimize portfolios.
We build an agent-based model for the order book with three types of market participants: informed trader, noise trader and competitive market makers. Using a Glosten-Milgrom like approach, we are able to deduce the whole limit order book (bid-ask spread and volume available at each price) from the interactions between…
We study the dynamics of the limit order book of liquid stocks after experiencing large intra-day price changes. In the data we find large variations in several microscopical measures, e.g., the volatility the bid-ask spread, the bid-ask imbalance, the number of queuing limit orders, the activity (number and volume) of…
New method calibrates crypto option prices more robustly.
Constant price impact functions, much used in financial literature, are shown to give rise to paradoxical outcomes since they do not allow for proper predictability removal: for instance the exploitation of a single large trade whose size and time of execution are known in advance to some insider leaves the arbitrage o…
The statistical properties of the bid-ask spread of a frequently traded Chinese stock listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange are investigated using the limit-order book data. Three different definitions of spread are considered based on the time right before transactions, the time whenever the highest buying price or th…
The paper introduces a new price model based on entropy that better fits high-frequency market data.
Statistical properties of order-driven double-auction markets with Bid-Ask spread are investigated through the dynamical quantities such as response function. We first attempt to utilize the so-called {\it Madhavan-Richardson-Roomans model} (MRR for short) to simulate the stochastic process of the price-change in empir…
Given a finite set of European call option prices on a single underlying, we want to know when there is a market model which is consistent with these prices. In contrast to previous studies, we allow models where the underlying trades at a bid-ask spread. The main question then is how large (in terms of a deterministic…
Large tick assets, i.e. assets where one tick movement is a significant fraction of the price and bid-ask spread is almost always equal to one tick, display a dynamics in which price changes and spread are strongly coupled. We introduce a Markov-switching modeling approach for price change, where the latent Markov proc…
We use the database leak of Mt. Gox exchange to analyze the dynamics of the price of bitcoin from June 2011 to November 2013. This gives us a rare opportunity to study an emerging retail-focused, highly speculative and unregulated market with trader identifiers at a tick transaction level. Jumps are frequent events and…
Accurate forecasts of electricity spot prices are essential to the daily operational and planning decisions made by power producers and distributors. Typically, point forecasts of these quantities suffice, particularly in the Nord Pool market where the large quantity of hydro power leads to price stability. However, wh…
Study analyzes price response and spread impact in foreign exchange markets.
The paper studies risk-based prices in financial markets under volatility uncertainty.
Study analyzes price change patterns across different market capitalizations using Markov chains.
The target of this paper is to consider model the risky asset price on the financial market under the Knightian uncertainty, and pricing the ask and bid prices of the uncertain risk. We use the nonlinear analysis tool, i.e., G-frame work [26], to construct the model of the risky asset price and bid-ask pricing for the …
We review the evidence that the erratic dynamics of markets is to a large extent of endogenous origin, i.e. determined by the trading activity itself and not due to the rational processing of exogenous news. In order to understand why and how prices move, the joint fluctuations of order flow and liquidity - and the way…
To any utility maximization problem under transaction costs one can assign a frictionless model with a price process , lying in the bid/ask price interval . Such process is called a \emph{shadow price} if it provides the same optimal utility value as in the original model with bid-as…
Study on order book dynamics with uniform catastrophes, explaining volatility and trends.
A shadow price is a process lying within the bid/ask prices of a market with proportional transaction costs, such that maximizing expected utility from consumption in the frictionless market with this price process leads to the same maximal utility as in the original market with transaction costs. For finite probabilit…
Unified models for asset prices with transaction costs and infinite variation strategies.
Under proportional transaction costs, a price process is said to have a consistent price system, if there is a semimartingale with an equivalent martingale measure that evolves within the bid-ask spread. We show that a continuous, multi-asset price process has a consistent price system, under arbitrarily small proporti…
This paper deals with numerical solutions to an impulse control problem arising from optimal portfolio liquidation with bid-ask spread and market price impact penalizing speedy execution trades. The corresponding dynamic programming (DP) equation is a quasi-variational inequality (QVI) with solvency constraint satisfie…
The common wisdom argues that, in general, large trades cause large price changes, while small trades cause small price changes. However, for extremely large price changes, the trade size and news play a minor role, while the liquidity (especially price gaps on the limit order book) is a more influencing factor. Hence,…
We study the dynamics of order flows around large intraday price changes using ultra-high-frequency data from the Shenzhen Stock Exchange. We find a significant reversal of price for both intraday price decreases and increases with a permanent price impact. The volatility, the volume of different types of orders, the b…
In this study we examine the evolution of price, volume, and the bid-ask spread after extreme 15 minute intraday price changes on the NYSE and the NASDAQ. We find that due to strong behavioral trading there is an overreaction. Furthermore we find that volatility which increases sharply at the event decays according to …
In this article we revisit the classic problem of tatonnement in price formation from a microstructure point of view, reviewing a recent body of theoretical and empirical work explaining how fluctuations in supply and demand are slowly incorporated into prices. Because revealed market liquidity is extremely low, large …