Optimizing betting frequency in dynamic games with Kelly criterion.
problem Finding the optimal betting frequency in a dynamic game setting.
method Using Kelly's expected logarithmic growth criterion, the study analyzes the performance of high-frequency and low-frequency bettors.
result The optimal performance gn* changes with n, and the high-frequency case does not always lead to the best performance.
Extends Kelly Criterion to more complex betting scenarios.
problem Maximizing long-term growth in complex betting models.
method Generalizes Kelly Criterion to Lévy processes and high-frequency limits.
result Improved strategies for high-frequency betting.
We propose procedures for testing whether stock price processes are martingales based on limit order type betting strategies. We first show that the null hypothesis of martingale property of a stock price process can be tested based on the capital process of a betting strategy. In particular with high frequency Markov …
The paper explores how rebalancing frequency affects stock portfolio performance using a control-theoretic approach.
problem The impact of high-frequency trading on portfolio performance in Kelly-optimal stock portfolios.
method The problem is set in a control-theoretic framework, and the main question is addressed through simulations of real stock prices.
result If an asset is dominant, optimal portfolios consist of this asset alone, rendering rebalancing frequency moot.
Algorithm beats sports betting markets, showing inefficiencies.
problem Inefficiencies in sports betting markets.
method Created a betting algorithm using a novel dataset and win probability model.
result Above market returns for various sports betting markets.
In this paper we complete and extend our previous work on stochastic control applied to high frequency market-making with inventory constraints and directional bets. Our new model admits several state variables (e.g. market spread, stochastic volatility and intensities of market orders) provided the full system is Mark…
The Kelly betting theory can sometimes lead to overly conservative bets.
problem Kelly betting can be too conservative in some cases.
method The authors use empirical data and theoretical distribution to compare Kelly bets, identifying cases where theoretical bets are much smaller than empirical bets.
result Theoretical Kelly bets can lead to no betting at all when the distribution is unbounded.
Law of iterated logarithm derived from betting strategy.
problem Deriving the law of the iterated logarithm.
method Using a betting strategy's wealth guarantee.
result Law of the iterated logarithm established.
Suppose you look at today's stock prices and bet on the value of the first digit. One could guess that a fair bet should correspond to the frequency of 1/9=11.11 for each digit from 1 to 9. This is by no means the case, and one can easily observe a strong prevalence of the small values over the large ones. The fir…
BBE simulates sports betting exchanges for data generation.
problem Creating synthetic data for betting strategy testing.
method Agent-based model (ABM) for sports betting exchange simulation.
result Simulation runs up to 1000 times faster with GPU.
Researchers analyze betting odds and free coupons to find exploitable gains.
problem Determining if customers can exploit free coupons for guaranteed gains.
method Using desirability theory and the Choquet integral, they evaluate odds and free coupons.
result Customers can exploit free coupons for guaranteed gains under certain conditions.
BBE simulates betting exchanges to generate synthetic data for AI research.
problem Lack of real data for AI/ML in betting exchanges.
method Agent-based simulation model of a sports-betting exchange.
result Generates large, high-resolution synthetic data for AI/ML.
Modeling horse race betting odds with Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process.
problem Analyzing how herding and informed bettors affect odds movements.
method Deriving an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process from vote shares and odds movements data.
result Identified microscopic and macroscopic patterns in odds convergence.
We propose a novel "tree-averaging" model that utilizes the ensemble of classification and regression trees (CART). Each constituent tree is estimated with a subset of similar data. We treat this grouping of subsets as Bayesian ensemble trees (BET) and model them as an infinite mixture Dirichlet process. We show that B…
Develops a valuation model for in-play football bets.
problem Valuation and hedging of in-play football bets.
method Model scores using independent Poisson processes, applies Fundamental Theorems of Asset Pricing.
result Derives arbitrage-free valuation formulas for in-play bets.
This paper optimizes sports betting strategies using neural networks and portfolio theory.
problem Optimizing betting strategies in sports gambling.
method Combining neural network models with portfolio optimization, integrating Von Neumann-Morgenstern Expected Utility Theory and the Kelly Criterion.
result Achieved 135.8% relative profit during the English Premier League season.
Paper approximates Kelly betting for wealth growth.
problem Optimizing wealth growth in Kelly betting.
method Taylor-based approximation for quadratic programming.
result Closed-form approximate solution with interesting properties.
New betting strategy reduces regret to ln(ln n) with protection against adversarial data.
problem Tackles the problem of minimizing regret in betting against adversarial and stochastic data.
method Combines insights from Robbins and Cover, using a mixture strategy.
result Exhibits a regret of O(ln(ln n)) on almost all paths, with O(log n) regret on the complement.
Gamblers lose in long bets despite casino claims, study shows.
problem Gamblers losing in seemingly fair gambling scenarios.
method Theoretical and experimental analysis of two-armed Futurity slot machines.
result Casinos have a win rate greater than 50% in long bets, making them unfair.
In this paper we extend the market-making models with inventory constraints of Avellaneda and Stoikov ("High-frequency trading in a limit-order book", Quantitative Finance Vol.8 No.3 2008) and Gueant, Lehalle and Fernandez-Tapia ("Dealing with inventory risk", Preprint 2011) to the case of a rather general class of mid…
Testing-by-betting strategies almost surely go bankrupt under null hypotheses.
problem Understanding the behavior of betting strategies under null hypotheses.
method Analyzed the asymptotics of betting strategies under null distributions, focusing on the almost sure divergence of sums.
result Testing-by-betting strategies go bankrupt with probability one under any non-degenerate null distribution.
The betting CI outperforms classical methods in constructing confidence intervals for bounded means.
problem Constructing nonasymptotic confidence intervals for bounded means.
method A betting-based approach to define and time-uniform variants of confidence intervals (CSs).
result The betting CI matches the fundamental limits, outperforming existing empirical Bernstein CIs.
Enhanced ICM ensemble detects concept drift better with novel betting functions.
problem Addressing Concept Drift in machine learning models.
method Refined ICM approach with improved betting functions and base estimators.
result The ensemble approach outperforms previous methods on benchmark datasets.
Study proposes new methods to convert betting odds into accurate probabilities for sports forecasting.
problem Convert betting odds to accurate outcome probabilities for sports forecasting and market efficiency analysis.
method Proposes two methods: Odds-Only-Equal-Profitability-Confidence (OO-EPC) and Favourite-Longshot-Bias-Adjusted Generalised Linear Model (FL-GLM).
result Proposed methods outperform existing methods in empirical tests and real-world applications.
PEAK tests means of multiple data streams with sequential betting.
problem Testing means of multiple data streams with nonparametric methods.
method Sequential, nonparametric testing using a betting scheme.
result PEAK provides up to 85% reduction in samples for stopping.
Optimizes bookmaking strategies for market prices.
problem Maximizing expected wealth in dynamic betting markets.
method General framework for continuous-time betting markets, solving optimal pricing problems.
result Explicit solutions for optimal bookmaking in various models.
Random forest model predicts tennis match outcomes with 80% accuracy.
problem Predicting tennis match outcomes before the game starts.
method Used a large database of tennis match information and a random forest model.
result Identified serve strength as a key predictor of match outcome.
Sequential tests for two-sample and independence testing using betting strategies.
problem Testing sequential data for two-sample and independence without kernel selection issues.
method Prediction-based betting strategies that adaptively determine distribution and joint distribution.
result Prediction-based tests outperform kernel-based approaches in high-dimensional or structured data settings.
A quantum memory model for Kelly betting with amplified or attenuated outcomes.
problem Optimizing Kelly betting strategies with quantum memory elements.
method Semi-classical model using quantum memory to encode payoff, modeled as random lasing dynamics.
result Best strategy is to invest all capital in coherent state amplitude for optimal performance.
The study shows how probability weighting can lead to betting in a risk-averse economy.
problem Understanding how probability weighting affects economic behavior and risk aversion.
method Examining a von Neumann-Morgenstern economy with an RDU agent to model probability weighting effects.
result Probability weighting can lead to endogenous betting in an economy with common beliefs.
Investigates sports betting strategies using modern portfolio theory and Kelly criterion.
problem Mitigating risk in sports betting investments.
method Modern portfolio theory and Kelly criterion, with modifications for practical risk control.
result Adaptive fractional Kelly method is suitable across various sports settings.
This work examines the effects of allowing borrowing in betting-based hypothesis testing.
problem The impact of allowing borrowing in betting-based hypothesis testing.
method Examined the consequences of allowing borrowing in each round, adjusting the rejection threshold accordingly.
result There is no extra price to pay for the possibility of borrowing if a path-dependent threshold is used.
We develop a model of how information flows into a market, and derive algorithms for automatically detecting and explaining relevant events. We analyze data from twenty-two "political stock markets" (i.e., betting markets on political outcomes) on the Iowa Electronic Market (IEM). We prove that, under certain efficienc…
Study compares financial and gambling markets, finding similarities and potential applications.
problem Lack of comprehensive study on gambling markets compared to financial markets.
method Comprehensive comparison of five aspects: platform, product, procedure, participant, and strategy.
result Well-established financial strategies can be applied to gambling markets, particularly in peer-to-peer betting exchanges.
BET improves nonparametric dependence detection by avoiding power loss.
problem Power loss in nonparametric dependence detection methods.
method Binary expansion statistics (BEStat) and binary expansion testing (BET) framework.
result BET avoids non-uniform consistency and achieves the minimax rate in sample size requirement.
A new method combines multiple bounds and betting strategies for selective prediction, improving risk coverage in data-scarce settings.
problem Selective prediction with risk control in data-scarce domains.
method Combines concentration inequalities, multiple-testing corrections, and betting-based confidence sequences.
result Transfer-Informed Betting achieves tighter bounds and better coverage in data-scarce settings.
Scores political leanings in Web3 betting markets.
problem Understanding political motivations in decentralized prediction markets.
method Constructing PBLS from Polymarket data, analyzing 15k addresses, 4k events, 8k markets.
result Validated PBLS through internal and external comparisons, revealing political and profit motives.
Sequential Kernel-based Conditional Independence Testing via Adaptive Betting
problem Testing conditional independence
method Testing-by-betting on an adaptively optimized Kernel Conditional Independence statistic
result Significantly reduces Type I error inflation while preserving high power
Kelly criterion, that maximizes the expectation value of the logarithm of wealth for bookmaker bets, gives an advantage over different class of strategies. We use projective symmetries for a explanation of this fact. Kelly's approach allows for an interesting financial interpretation of the Boltzmann/Shannon entropy. A…
Paper improves CI and CS for bounded means using betting and mixtures.
problem Estimating means of bounded random variables.
method Composite nonnegative martingales, testing by betting, method of mixtures.
result Empirically outperforms existing CI and CS methods.
Paper proposes a new coin betting method for training deep networks without learning rates.
problem Deep learning requires tuning many hyperparameters, especially learning rates.
method Reduces deep network training to a coin betting game, eliminating learning rates.
result Empirical and theoretical evidence shows the new method outperforms existing stochastic gradient algorithms.
Study confirms mispricing in sportsbooks but finds data issues affect results.
problem Mispricing and inefficiency in online sportsbooks.
method Replication using Wikipedia buzz factor metric and backtesting.
result Data quality issues affect betting results; only one strategy remains profitable.
Proposes a new factor to improve BAB strategies by recognizing bad-beta assets.
problem Investors often misprice assets based on beta, ignoring bad-beta.
method Double-sorting on beta and bad-beta to create a new factor.
result The Betting Against Bad Beta factor improves BAB strategies.
Optimal strategies are found for a repeated betting game using diffusion approximation.
problem Finding optimal strategies for a repeated betting game with i.i.d. outcomes.
method Constructing a diffusion approximation of the repeated game and analyzing the wealth share process.
result Necessary and sufficient conditions for the wealth share process to be transient or recurrent are derived.
The paper finds the optimal wealth growth rate in betting games.
problem Optimizing wealth growth in Kelly betting games against arbitrary hypotheses.
method Analyzes the growth rate using KL divergence and proves it equals a specific limit.
result The optimal wealth growth rate is characterized and proven to be achievable.
Study shows most people make poor decisions when betting on a biased coin.
problem People's decision-making under uncertainty is poor, even among trained individuals.
method 61 quantitatively trained participants played a game with a biased coin.
result 30% of participants lost their entire stake, indicating poor decision-making.
New algorithm closes empirical gap in PFSGD performance.
problem Empirical performance gap between tuned SGD and PFSGD.
method Parameter-free algorithm based on Coin-Betting ODE updates.
result New algorithm outperforms tuned baselines and matches optimal performance.
Trading invariance hypothesis is revised with high correlation to trading costs.
problem Revisiting trading invariance hypothesis in metaorders.
method Empirical analysis of a large dataset of metaorders, investigating the quantity I and its correlation with trading costs. result Trading invariance hypothesis is revised; I is not invariant but highly correlated with trading costs.