New method disentangles perceptual uncertainty and behavioral costs in partially observable systems.
problem Tackles inverse optimal control for non-linear partially observable systems.
method Probabilistic approach using maximum causal entropy formulations and local linearization.
result Disentangles perceptual factors and behavioral costs in sequential decision-making.
Study designs steering rewards for MFGs with unknown dynamics and model uncertainty.
problem Designing incentives for large populations of agents in MFGs with uncertain model details.
method Developed optimistic exploration algorithms for agents with no-adaptive regret behaviors.
result Sub-linear regret guarantees for cumulative gaps between agent behaviors and desired outcomes.
Study on Monte-Carlo dropout for uncertainty estimation in neural networks.
problem Variability in uncertainty estimation quality through Monte-Carlo dropout.
method Analysis of dropout behavior in neural networks.
result Observation of interesting properties for uncertainty estimation.
The paper models insurance market dynamics under uncertainty and financial frictions.
problem Modeling insurer behavior under uncertainty and financial frictions.
method Dynamic equilibrium model of insurance market with competitive insurers maximizing shareholder value.
result Investment can lead to lower insurance prices and negative loadings under certain conditions.
The study models mortgage prepayment risk, accounting for behavioral uncertainty, and provides replication strategies.
problem Modeling and replicating the prepayment option of mortgages with behavioral uncertainty.
method Modeling behavioral uncertainty as a non-hedgeable risk factor, proving its impact on exposure value, and using IRSs and swaptions for replication.
result Including behavioral uncertainty reduces the exposure's value, and swaptions are necessary for optimal replication.
Aims to learn from multiple unpredictable teachers with minimal interaction.
problem Learning from multiple non-deterministic teachers with low interaction cost.
method Develops a framework and an active learning algorithm to estimate a distribution over policy space.
result Significantly reduces interaction with teachers without compromising performance.
Reinforcement learning agents are faced with two types of uncertainty. Epistemic uncertainty stems from limited data and is useful for exploration, whereas aleatoric uncertainty arises from stochastic environments and must be accounted for in risk-sensitive applications. We highlight the challenges involved in simultan…
Paper uses deep learning to model systems with degrading behavior.
problem Modeling systems with degrading hysteretic behavior and uncertainty.
method Uses low-fidelity data to train a deep operator network (DeepONet).
result Improves prediction error in degrading hysteretic systems with uncertainty.
Work proposes a new framework to improve uncertainty estimation in deep Bayesian models.
problem Traditional training procedures underestimate uncertainty in NLMs, leading to unreliable predictions.
method Introduces a novel training framework that captures useful predictive uncertainties for out-of-distribution inputs.
result Demonstrates that traditional methods for NLMs significantly underestimate uncertainty and propose a new framework to address this issue.
New method improves uncertainty estimation in Bayesian deep learning models.
problem Underestimation of predictive uncertainty in Neural Linear Models (NLMs).
method Proposes a novel training method to capture useful predictive uncertainties and incorporate domain knowledge.
result Traditional training procedures for NLMs can drastically underestimate uncertainty in data-scarce regions.
Ensembles of models have been empirically shown to improve predictive performance and to yield robust measures of uncertainty. However, they are expensive in computation and memory. Therefore, recent research has focused on distilling ensembles into a single compact model, reducing the computational and memory burden o…
We propose and analyze numerically a simple dynamical model that describes the firm behaviors under uncertainty of demand forecast. Iterating this simple model and varying some parameters values we observe a wide variety of market dynamics such as equilibria, periodic and chaotic behaviors. Interestingly the model is a…
The study examines robust decision-making in volatile financial markets, finding action robustness is more impactful than uncertainty tolerance.
problem Sequential decision making in high-frequency markets under evolving uncertainty.
method Analyzes two dimensions of robustness: uncertainty tolerance and action robustness, using simulations and empirical evidence.
result Action robustness has a larger impact on profitability than uncertainty tolerance, and excessive robustness can reduce profitability in illiquid markets.
New algorithm breaks multiagency gap in robust MARL.
problem Vulnerability of MARL to sim-to-real gaps.
method Distributionally robust Markov games (RMGs) with a new uncertainty set formulation.
result First algorithm to break the curse of multiagency for RMGs.
Bayesian approach quantifies uncertainty in LLM evaluations.
problem Statistical uncertainty in evaluating LLM behavior.
method Bayesian evaluation of LLM behavior using probabilistic text generation strategies.
result Bayesian approach provides useful uncertainty quantification about LLM behavior.
New method reduces uncertainty in AI-driven Monte Carlo simulations.
problem Epistemic uncertainty in AI surrogate models affects Monte Carlo sampling outcomes.
method Penalty Ensemble Method (PEM) modifies Metropolis acceptance rule to increase rejection probability in uncertain regions.
result PEM enhances reliability of Monte Carlo simulations by reducing uncertainty propagation.
This paper compares uncertainty estimation methods for deep learning in autonomous vehicles.
problem Ensuring safety in autonomous vehicles through accurate uncertainty quantification in deep learning models.
method A comparative survey of uncertainty quantification methods in deep neural networks.
result Different methods for uncertainty quantification in DNNs have advantages and downsides for specific AV tasks and types of uncertainty.
Graph Posterior Network improves uncertainty estimation for node classification in interdependent graphs.
problem Uncertainty quantification for non-independent node-level predictions in graphs.
method Derives axioms for expected predictive uncertainty, proposes Graph Posterior Network (GPN) which performs Bayesian posterior updates.
result GPN outperforms existing approaches for uncertainty estimation in semi-supervised node classification.
Study improves LLMs for PPI analysis by addressing uncertainty.
problem Uncertainty in LLM predictions for PPIs.
method Fine-tuned LLaMA-3 and BioMedGPT models, LoRA ensembles, Bayesian LoRA for UQ.
result Competitive PPI identification performance across diverse disease contexts.
Study optimal offline RL with uncertainty sets and distribution shifts.
problem Optimal offline reinforcement learning with limited data.
method Construct uncertainty sets and distribution shifts, solve robust Markov decision process.
result Least conservative estimator for unknown true distribution.
The ACCRU framework improves probabilistic forecasts by capturing input-dependent uncertainty.
problem Uncertainty in deterministic predictions, especially for skewed and non-Gaussian errors.
method Neural network trained with a loss function balancing accuracy and reliability to learn input-dependent, non-Gaussian uncertainty distributions.
result Improves probabilistic forecasts relative to existing methods, capturing skewed and non-Gaussian errors.
Bayesian EnKF improves sentence comprehension uncertainty modeling.
problem Uncertainty in human language comprehension, especially with ambiguous inputs.
method Bayesian framework using ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) for uncertainty quantification.
result Enhanced model's ability to approximate human cognitive processing with linguistic ambiguities.
We present an analysis of oil prices in US$ and in other major currencies that diagnoses unsustainable faster-than-exponential behavior. This supports the hypothesis that the recent oil price run-up has been amplified by speculative behavior of the type found during a bubble-like expansion. We also attempt to unravel t…
Robust Q-learning for mean-field control under Wasserstein uncertainty
problem Mean-field control under Wasserstein uncertainty
method Quantization-and-projection scheme with Wasserstein dual reformulation
result Convergence and finite-time iteration bounds
Deep learning models have exhibited superior performance in predictive tasks with the explosively increasing Electronic Health Records (EHR). However, due to the lack of transparency, behaviors of deep learning models are difficult to interpret. Without trustworthiness, deep learning models will not be able to assist i…
Bayesian framework evaluates predictors of subjective visual tasks.
problem Evaluating uncertainty in machine learning predictors for tasks with subjective annotations.
method Bayesian framework to estimate epistemic uncertainty from human labels.
result Framework successfully applied to four image classification tasks.
The study shows how probability weighting can lead to betting in a risk-averse economy.
problem Understanding how probability weighting affects economic behavior and risk aversion.
method Examining a von Neumann-Morgenstern economy with an RDU agent to model probability weighting effects.
result Probability weighting can lead to endogenous betting in an economy with common beliefs.
The existence of adversarial examples has led to considerable uncertainty regarding the trust one can justifiably put in predictions produced by automated systems. This uncertainty has, in turn, lead to considerable research effort in understanding adversarial robustness. In this work, we take first steps towards separ…
Paper introduces a simple method to assign uncertainty in contrastive learning models.
problem Contrastive learning models lack uncertainty measures.
method Trains a deep network to assign uncertainty based on representation variance.
result Deep uncertainty model improves anomaly detection and out-of-distribution classification.
This research improves neural network uncertainty estimates and reliability.
problem Lack of inherent uncertainty estimates and variability in softmax scores.
method Ensemble-based Dirichlet modeling with method of moments estimator.
result Improved stability and predictive uncertainty estimates.
Study finds uncertainty estimators weakly correlate with LLM hallucinations.
problem Characterizing the relationship between uncertainty estimators and LLM hallucinations.
method Systematic empirical study of diverse uncertainty estimators across hallucination types and benchmarks.
result Uncertainty estimators weakly correlate with LLM hallucinations, depending on hallucination type and LLM.
We investigate statistical uncertainty quantification for reinforcement learning (RL) and its implications in exploration policy. Despite ever-growing literature on RL applications, fundamental questions about inference and error quantification, such as large-sample behaviors, appear to remain quite open. In this paper…
Robust Reinforcement Learning aims to derive optimal behavior that accounts for model uncertainty in dynamical systems. However, previous studies have shown that by considering the worst case scenario, robust policies can be overly conservative. Our soft-robust framework is an attempt to overcome this issue. In this pa…
Develops a neural surrogate for proton dose calculation using Monte Carlo dropout uncertainty.
problem Computational demand in proton therapy workflows requiring repeated evaluations.
method Integrates Monte Carlo dropout into a neural network surrogate for fast, differentiable dose predictions and uncertainty quantification.
result Shows significant speedups over MC while retaining uncertainty information.
In this paper, we analyze the behavior of the multivariate symmetric uncertainty (MSU) measure through the use of statistical simulation techniques under various mixes of informative and non-informative randomly generated features. Experiments show how the number of attributes, their cardinalities, and the sample size …
The paper introduces a new framework to assess generative model uncertainty.
problem Lack of a theoretical framework for assessing generative models' generalization and uncertainty.
method Bias-variance-covariance decomposition for kernel scores, with unbiased and consistent estimators.
result Kernel-based variance and entropy for uncertainty estimation are more predictive than existing methods.
New method improves uncertainty calibration in deep learning.
problem Systematic overconfidence in EDL on out-of-distribution inputs.
method Density-Informed Pseudo-count EDL (DIP-EDL) separates class prediction from uncertainty.
result DIP-EDL achieves asymptotic concentration and enhances robustness and uncertainty calibration.
Learning a policy using only observational data is challenging because the distribution of states it induces at execution time may differ from the distribution observed during training. We propose to train a policy by unrolling a learned model of the environment dynamics over multiple time steps while explicitly penali…
A new method reduces Volterra kernel complexity and uncertainty quantification.
problem Challenges in modeling nonlinear systems with Volterra series due to high model order.
method Bayesian Tensor Network Volterra kernel machines (BTN-V) using canonical polyadic decomposition.
result Competitive accuracy, enhanced uncertainty quantification, and reduced computational cost.
The uncertainty principle lemma for the Laplacian on Euclidean spaces shows the borderline-behavior of a potential for the following question : whether the Schrödinger operator has a finite or infinite number of the discrete pectrum. In this paper, we will give a generalization of this lemma on Euclidean spaces to that…
BSG learns dynamic network spillovers and uncertainty quantification.
problem Identifying indirect spillovers and systemic risk in dynamic networks.
method Bayesian Spillover Graphs using FEVD and Bayesian time series models.
result Significant performance gains over baselines in identifying source and sink nodes.
This study analyzes economic policy uncertainty indices using visibility graphs.
problem Understanding the role of economic policy uncertainty in global economies.
method Visibility graph algorithm applied to economic policy uncertainty indices.
result The economic policy uncertainty indices exhibit persistent behavior and scale-free networks.
Bayesian Neural Networks improve uncertainty modeling in facial emotion recognition.
problem High aleatoric uncertainty and visual ambiguity in facial emotion recognition.
method Bayesian Neural Networks approximated using MC-Dropout, MC-DropConnect, or Ensemble methods.
result Bayesian Neural Networks produce more human-like output probabilities.
Study questions the reliability of uncertainty quantification in evidential deep learning.
problem Reliability of uncertainty quantification in evidential deep learning.
method Analysis of evidential deep learning methods, revealing their limitations and interpreting them as out-of-distribution detection algorithms.
result EDL methods are unreliable in quantifying uncertainty, even when effective on downstream tasks.
We develop a framework for interacting with uncertain environments in reinforcement learning (RL) by leveraging preferences in the form of utility functions. We claim that there is value in considering different risk measures during learning. In this framework, the preference for risk can be tuned by variation of the p…
Single model estimates uncertainty via biased data shifts.
problem Estimating uncertainties in deep neural networks.
method Trivial input transformation to approximate ensemble behavior.
result Single model uncertainty estimates are superior to current methods.
Robust Markov Decision Processes (RMDPs) intend to ensure robustness with respect to changing or adversarial system behavior. In this framework, transitions are modeled as arbitrary elements of a known and properly structured uncertainty set and a robust optimal policy can be derived under the worst-case scenario. In t…
Novel framework for contextual anomaly detection models uncertainty.
problem Identifying anomalies in target variables influenced by contextual variables.
method Normalcy score (NS) framework using heteroscedastic Gaussian process regression.
result NS outperforms state-of-the-art methods in detection accuracy and interpretability.