A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Many medical decision-making tasks can be framed as partially observed Markov decision processes (POMDPs). However, prevailing two-stage approaches that first learn a POMDP and then solve it often fail because the model that best fits the data may not be well suited for planning. We introduce a new optimization objecti…
Develops a new framework for analyzing sequential decision-making problems using information theory.
problem Lack of information-theoretic generalization bounds for sequential decision-making problems.
method Introduces a sequential supersample framework that separates learner filtration from proof-side enlargement, controlling the generalization gap by sequential CMI.
result Establishes a sequential CMI that controls the generalization gap in sequential decision-making problems.
A novel dynamic Bayesian nonparametric topic model for anomaly detection in video is proposed in this paper. Batch and online Gibbs samplers are developed for inference. The paper introduces a new abnormality measure for decision making. The proposed method is evaluated on both synthetic and real data. The comparison w…
The paper studies early stopping methods in linear contextual bandits.
problem Minimizing in-experiment regret and conducting robust post-experiment inferences in contextual bandits.
method The study proposes early stopping rules based on the Opportunity Cost and Threshold Method, using variances of estimators to quantify upper regret bounds.
result The proposed method provides a systematic approach to minimize in-experiment regret and conduct robust post-experiment inferences.
Integrates prediction models into portfolio optimization for better asset allocation.
problem Traditional portfolio optimization ignores prediction models, leading to suboptimal decisions.
method Developed a framework that combines regression prediction with mean-variance optimization, providing analytical solutions and neural-network-based optimization for inequality constraints.
result Demonstrated through simulations that integrating prediction models improves portfolio performance.
Bayesian inference promises to ground and improve the performance of deep neural networks. It promises to be robust to overfitting, to simplify the training procedure and the space of hyperparameters, and to provide a calibrated measure of uncertainty that can enhance decision making, agent exploration and prediction f…
Optimization is becoming increasingly common in scientific and engineering domains. Oftentimes, these problems involve various levels of stochasticity or uncertainty in generating proposed solutions. Therefore, optimization in these scenarios must consider this stochasticity to properly guide the design of future exper…
New research shows many batch selection methods for training work just as well as full batch training.
problem Finding optimal batch selection methods for training.
method Analysis of mini-batch Gradient Descent (GD) and Stochastic GD (SGD) with various batch selection rules.
result All mini-batch schedules, including deterministic ones, generalize optimally for smooth Lipschitz-convex/nonconvex/strongly-convex loss functions.
Determining the appropriate batch size for mini-batch gradient descent is always time consuming as it often relies on grid search. This paper considers a resizable mini-batch gradient descent (RMGD) algorithm based on a multi-armed bandit for achieving best performance in grid search by selecting an appropriate batch s…
Batch Normalization (BN) uses mini-batch statistics to normalize the activations during training, introducing dependence between mini-batch elements. This dependency can hurt the performance if the mini-batch size is too small, or if the elements are correlated. Several alternatives, such as Batch Renormalization and G…
Training deep neural networks with Stochastic Gradient Descent, or its variants, requires careful choice of both learning rate and batch size. While smaller batch sizes generally converge in fewer training epochs, larger batch sizes offer more parallelism and hence better computational efficiency. We have developed a n…
Batch normalisation doesn't affect variational inference but fails for larger batch sizes.
problem Failure of Monte Carlo Batch Normalisation (MCBN) for capturing epistemic uncertainty in larger batch sizes.
method Investigated MCBN as an approximate inference technique for Bayesian neural networks, showing its limitations and providing insights for improvement.
result For larger batch sizes, MCBN fails to capture epistemic uncertainty, requiring the batch size to be a variational parameter.