A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Model shows worldwide trade crises can be localized or global, depending on trade balance.
Paper presents ECL dataset for multi-modal bankruptcy prediction.
The study predicts bankruptcy in Indian companies using financial ratios.
We have conducted an agent-based simulation of chain bankruptcy. The propagation of credit risk on a network, i.e., chain bankruptcy, is the key to nderstanding largesized bankruptcies. In our model, decrease of revenue by the loss of accounts payable is modeled by an interaction term, and bankruptcy is defined as a ca…
Study explores how labour income impacts optimal bankruptcy strategy.
Narrative disclosures in 10-K filings improve bankruptcy prediction beyond accounting ratios.
Optimizes dividend control in a bankruptcy process using a special Levy process.
We consider a discrete-time, linear state equation with delay which arises as a model for a trader's account value when buying and selling a risky asset in a financial market. The state equation includes a nonnegative feedback gain and a sequence which models asset returns which are within known bounds but o…
Study proposes a data-driven CBR system for improved bankruptcy prediction.
Interval bankruptcy problems arise in situations where an estate has to be liquidated among a fixed number of creditors and uncertainty about the amounts of the claims is modeled by intervals. We extend in the interval setting the classical results by Curiel, Maschler and Tijs (1987) that characterize division rules wh…
Research aims to predict fallen angel bonds' bankruptcy using machine learning.
The seniority of debt, which determines the order in which a bankrupt institution repays its debts, is an important and sometimes contentious feature of financial crises, yet its impact on system-wide stability is not well understood. We capture seniority of debt in a multiplex network, a graph of nodes connected by mu…
Predicting bankruptcy using financial data and news sentiment.
Gradient boosted trees outperform other models in predicting corporate bankruptcy.
Optimal dividends strategy in a two-state regime-switching environment.
New model uses financial filings to predict bankruptcy, even without MDA sections.
We study a singular stochastic control problem faced by the owner of an insurance company that dynamically pays dividends and raises capital in the presence of the restriction that the surplus process must be above a given dividend payout barrier in order for dividend payments to be allowed. Bankruptcy occurs if the su…
Study combines intra-risk and contagion risk for SME bankruptcy prediction.
Using an exhaustive list of Japanese bankruptcy in 1997, we discover a Zipf law for the distribution of total liabilities of bankrupted firms in high debt range. The life-time of these bankrupted firms has exponential distribution in correlation with entry rate of new firms. We also show that the debt and size are high…
We model a network economy with three sectors: downstream firms, upstream firms, and banks. Agents are linked by productive and credit relationships so that the behavior of one agent influences the behavior of the others through network connections. Credit interlinkages among agents are a source of bankruptcy diffusion…
This note explores the mathematical theory to solve modern gamblers ruin problems. We establish a ruin framework and solve for the probability of bankruptcy. We also show how this relates to the expected time to bankruptcy and review the risk neutral probabilities associated an adjustment to asymmetrical views.
We analyze the size dependence and temporal stability of firm bankruptcy risk in the US economy by applying Zipf scaling techniques. We focus on a single risk factor-the debt-to-asset ratio R-in order to study the stability of the Zipf distribution of R over time. We find that the Zipf exponent increases during market …
In bankruptcy prediction, the proportion of events is very low, which is often oversampled to eliminate this bias. In this paper, we study the influence of the event rate on discrimination abilities of bankruptcy prediction models. First the statistical association and significance of public records and firmographics i…
New method predicts bankruptcy by imputing missing data with granular semantics.
Credit estimation and bankruptcy prediction methods have been utilizing Altman's score method for the last several years. It is reported in many studies that score is sensitive to changes in accounting figures. Researches have proposed different variations to conventional score that can improve the predicti…
We construct the Google matrices of bitcoin transactions for all year quarters during the period of January 11, 2009 till April 10, 2013. During the last quarters the network size contains about 6 million users (nodes) with about 150 million transactions. From PageRank and CheiRank probabilities, analogous to trade imp…
The optimal capital structure model with endogenous bankruptcy was first studied by Leland (1994) and Leland and Toft (1996), and was later extended to the spectrally negative Levy model by Hilberink and Rogers (2002) and Kyprianou and Surya (2007). This paper incorporates the scale effects by allowing the values of ba…
We revisit the optimal capital structure model with endogenous bankruptcy first studied by Leland \cite{Leland94} and Leland and Toft \cite{Leland96}. Differently from the standard case, where shareholders observe continuously the asset value and bankruptcy is executed instantaneously without delay, we assume that the …
New distress dictionary improves bankruptcy prediction from disclosure text.
Paper introduces a benchmark for predicting bankruptcy from text data.
Model predicts Mozambique bank failures, aiding risk management.
We introduce a model in which a regulator employs mechanism design to embed her human capital beta signal(s) in a firm's capital structure, in order to enhance the value of her post career change indexed executive stock option contract with the firm. We prove that the agency cost of this revolving door behavior increas…
Study uses CNN to analyze images of SMEs for bankruptcy risk.
Proposes a new bankruptcy prediction model using Bayesian framework with expert knowledge.
The 1/3 Financial Rule helps prevent household bankruptcy through balanced spending, savings, and debt repayment.
Adapts Altman's model to compositional data for bankruptcy prediction.
Study optimal portfolio strategy with sporadic bankruptcy for isoelastic utility.
The question we address here is of whether phenomena of collective bankruptcies are related to self-organized criticality. In order to answer it we propose a simple model of banking networks based on the random directed percolation. We study effects of one bank failure on the nucleation of contagion phase in a financia…
This study analyzes how cryptocurrency networks adapt to financial disruptions.
We provide investment advice for an individual who wishes to minimize her lifetime poverty, with a penalty for bankruptcy or ruin. We measure poverty via a non-negative, non-increasing function of (running) wealth. Thus, the lower wealth falls and the longer wealth stays low, the greater the penalty. This paper general…
Public debt is one of the important economic variables that quantitatively describes a nation's economy. Because bankruptcy is a risk faced even by institutions as large as governments (e.g. Iceland), national debt should be strictly controlled with respect to national wealth. Also, the problem of eliminating extreme p…
We present a simple model of firm rating evolution. We consider two sources of defaults: individual dynamics of economic development and Potts-like interactions between firms. We show that such a defined model leads to phase transition, which results in collective defaults. The existence of the collective phase depends…
Proposes a new tree-based algorithm for class-imbalanced data.
We consider continuous-time mean-variance portfolio selection with bankruptcy prohibition under convex cone portfolio constraints. This is a long-standing and difficult problem not only because of its theoretical significance, but also for its practical importance. First of all, we transform the above problem into an e…
Predicting firm's failure is one of the most interesting subjects for investors and decision makers. In this paper, a bankruptcy prediction model is proposed based on Artificial Neural networks (ANN). Taking into consideration that the choice of variables to discriminate between bankrupt and non-bankrupt firms influenc…
We study an optimal dividend problem under a bankruptcy constraint. Firms face a trade-off between potential bankruptcy and extraction of profits. In contrast to previous works, general cash flow drifts, including Ornstein--Uhlenbeck and CIR processes, are considered. We provide rigorous proofs of continuity of the val…
In this paper, we introduce an insurance ruin model with adaptive premium rate, thereafter refered to as restructuring/refraction, in which classical ruin and bankruptcy are distinguished. In this model, the premium rate is increased as soon as the wealth process falls into the red zone and is brought back to its regul…
Testing-by-betting strategies almost surely go bankrupt under null hypotheses.