Paper explores balancing market dynamics and interpretable forecasting models for energy prices.
problem Tackles the challenge of accurately predicting mFRR price and understanding market dynamics.
method Compares XGBoost and EBM for forecasting mFRR activation price in the balancing market.
result EBM provides comparable forecasting accuracy to XGBoost but with higher interpretability.
This study improves electricity price forecasting in the Irish balancing market.
problem Limited and inconsistent research on short-term price forecasting in volatile balancing markets.
method Compared statistical, machine learning, and deep learning models using a public dataset and framework.
result LEAR, a statistical approach, outperforms complex models in the balancing market.
This review analyzes deep learning methods for electricity price forecasting across different markets.
problem Insufficient analysis of deep learning methods in electricity price forecasting.
method Unified taxonomy of deep learning components, analysis of trends across markets.
result Shift toward probabilistic, microstructure-centric, and market-aware designs.
Study shows sudden loss of balance in stock market networks after 2011, reducing predictability.
problem Reduced predictability in stock markets due to structural changes.
method Rank correlations and weighted signed networks to analyze interconnectivity and balance.
result Sudden loss of balance in stock market networks after 2011, leading to decreased predictability.
We present a simple, yet realistic, agent-based model of an electricity market. The proposed model combines the spot and balancing markets with a resolution of one minute, which enables a more accurate depiction of the physical properties of the power grid. As a test, we compare the results obtained from our simulation…
We test a historical price time series in a financial market (the NASDAQ 100 index) for a statistical property known as detailed balance. The presence of detailed balance would imply that the market can be modeled by a stochastic process based on a Markov chain, thus leading to equilibrium. In economic terms, a positiv…
Due to the limited predictability of wind power and other stochastic generation, trading this energy in competitive electricity markets is challenging. This paper derives revenue-maximising and risk-constrained strategies for stochastic generators participating in electricity markets with a single-price balancing mecha…
A financial market comprising of a certain number of distinct companies is considered, and the following statement is proved: either a specific agent will surely beat the whole market unconditionally in the long run, or (and this "or" is not exclusive) all the capital of the market will accumulate in one company. Thus,…
Paper optimizes internal balancing of wind and hydropower to reduce intraday market volatility.
problem Reduction of intraday market volatility for power producers with wind and hydropower assets.
method Internal balancing within the same river system and sales/purchase in a pay-as-bid intraday market.
result Reduction in short-term marginal cost and risk through internal balancing.
Paper analyzes constant-product market making protocols.
problem Understanding and optimizing constant-product market making.
method Mathematical analysis of trade splitting and fee recompounding.
result Splitting trades does not affect final exchange rate.
Global balance index measures systemic risk in financial networks.
problem Measuring systemic risk in financial networks.
method Defined global balance index based on a diffusive process and linear system.
result Global balance index correlates with systemic risk measures.
Deep Q-Learning optimizes market making by balancing price risk and spread profits.
problem Optimizing liquidity provision in financial markets.
method Reinforcement Learning applied to a market making problem with a reward function.
result Deep Q-Learning algorithms can recover the optimal market making strategy.
An increase in energy production from renewable energy sources is viewed as a crucial achievement in most industrialized countries. The higher variability of power production via renewables leads to a rise in ancillary service costs over the power system, in particular costs within the electricity balancing markets, ma…
Regression Trees analyze stock returns, revealing market excess return as the most informative factor.
problem Understanding informational content of three factors in stock returns.
method Joint regression tree analysis of daily stock return data for 5 major US corporations.
result The market excess return factor is always the most informative in all cases (solo and joint).
Optimized execution model using interbank and internal liquidity.
problem Minimizing market impact in trading.
method Integrates interbank limit and market orders with internal market-making liquidity.
result Reduces market impact and improves execution efficiency.
Paper optimizes energy trading on DA markets using RL.
problem Volatility and randomness in renewable energy sources.
method Markov Decision Process, reinforcement learning, evolutionary algorithm.
result RL-based strategy generates highest market profits.
The study identifies assets with local balance deviating from global balance to mitigate financial risk.
problem Selecting outperforming assets during financial crises.
method Investigates deviations of local balance from global balance as a criterion for asset selection.
result Assets with local balance deviating from global balance can mitigate financial risk.
MOT uses RL with OT to adapt to different market conditions for algorithmic trading.
problem Adapting to varying market conditions in algorithmic trading.
method MOT uses multiple actors with disentangled representation learning and Optimal Transport to model different market patterns.
result MOT outperforms in real futures market data with excellent profit capabilities and risk balancing.
This review explores probabilistic forecasting methods in evolving energy markets.
problem Volatility and uncertainty in renewable energy markets require probabilistic forecasting for risk assessment.
method Traces evolution from Bayesian and distribution-based approaches to conformal prediction.
result Probabilistic forecasting offers a more comprehensive approach to risk assessment and market participation.
Study improves detection of cryptocurrency pump-and-dump schemes.
problem Class imbalance in P&D detection due to rare events.
method Synthetic Minority Oversampling Technique (SMOTE) and ensemble learning models.
result XGBoost and LightGBM achieved high recall rates (94.87% and 93.59%) with strong F1-scores.
Short-term probabilistic forecasting of German electricity imbalance prices.
problem Uncertainty in renewable energy capacity and electricity prices.
method Combining lasso with bootstrap, gamlss, and probabilistic neural networks for forecasting imbalance prices.
result Sophisticated methods improve empirical coverage of imbalance prices but do not substantially outperform the intraday continuous price index.
This work analyzes impermanent loss in decentralized markets and provides a hedging strategy.
problem Impermanent loss in automated market makers (AMMs).
method Analytical derivation of a static replication formula using European options, and numerical example with real data.
result Guaranteed hedging coverage for all final prices within a predefined interval.
This study examines how market makers balance risk and impact in foreign exchange markets.
problem Balancing risk management with market impact in foreign exchange markets.
method An intermediate scenario approach considering both instantaneous and permanent market impact components.
result Transient market impact is more prevalent than previously thought, challenging traditional market impact models.
Develops a new model to optimize trading in markets.
problem Optimal execution of market securities with transaction costs.
method Introduces a utility function balancing market impact and transaction costs, incorporating existing optimal trading strategies.
result Demonstrates a new approach to balancing market impact and transaction costs.
Optimizes user marketing campaigns to balance cost and effectiveness.
problem Lack of methods to optimize marketing campaigns considering cost and effectiveness.
method Proposes a treatment effect optimization algorithm using deep learning to balance cost and effectiveness.
result Demonstrates superior performance in cost-efficiency and real-world business value.
Analyzes impermanent loss in decentralized exchanges and provides a replication formula.
problem Impermanent loss in decentralized exchanges like Uniswap and Balancer.
method Analytical static replication formula using European calls and puts.
result Guaranteed coverage for pool value within a predefined range.
Model shows bailout stigma affects firm funding and market performance.
problem Bailout stigma impacts firm funding and market stability.
method Developed a model to analyze the effects of bailout stigma on firms and markets.
result Firms avoid stigma by withdrawing or refusing bailouts, leading to market freeze or revival.
Paper analyzes how latency affects optimal order execution in markets.
problem Balancing profit from optimal order execution against execution risk.
method Stochastic optimal control problem with risk-averse trader.
result Closed-form approximations of fill probability, limit price, and latency.
Endogenous randomness emerges from adversarial market learning.
problem Market randomness
method Deterministic adversarial market model
result Out-of-sample profitability collapses to zero.
This paper proposes an agent-based model that combines both spot and balancing electricity markets. From this model, we develop a multi-agent simulation to study the integration of the consumers' flexibility into the system. Our study identifies the conditions that real-time prices may lead to higher electricity costs,…
In this paper we compare market price fluctuations with the response to fundamental price drops within the Lux-Marchesi model which is able to reproduce the most important stylized facts of real market data. Major differences can be observed between the decay of spontaneous fluctuations and of changes due to external p…
A limit order book provides information on available limit order prices and their volumes. Based on these quantities, we give an empirical result on the relationship between the bid-ask liquidity balance and trade sign and we show that liquidity balance on best bid/best ask is quite informative for predicting the futur…
HedgeAgents boosts financial trading with balanced strategies.
problem Inefficient trading strategies under rapid market changes.
method Integrates LLMs with multi-agent system for robust decision-making.
result 70% annualized return and 400% total return over 3 years.
ChatGPT predicts stock market movements based on Bloomberg headlines, showing a positive correlation over short to medium terms.
problem Predicting stock market movements using news headlines.
method Used a two-stage prompt approach with a dataset of Bloomberg market summaries from 2010 to 2023.
result ChatGPT's sentiment scores correlate positively with future equity market returns over short to medium terms, with a negative correlation over longer horizons.
AlphaZeroBeta uses deep reinforcement learning for market-neutral portfolios, outperforming traditional methods.
problem Traditional portfolio management methods often fail during market regime shifts or when assumptions break down.
method Combines a composite reward function and CNN-GRU policy trained end-to-end via Recurrent PPO.
result Achieves higher Sharpe ratios than baselines while maintaining near-zero benchmark correlations.
In this short paper we define the wealth process in a spin model for market microstructure, for individual agents and in aggregate. The agents in our model try to balance their desire to belong to the local majority (herding behavior), defined over random network neighborhoods, and the occasional advantage of belonging…
UAMM uses external market prices to improve AMM efficiency and reduce liquidity provider risk.
problem Traditional AMMs lack consideration of external markets and risk management.
method UAMM calculates prices by incorporating external market prices and impermanent loss, maintaining constant product curve properties.
result UAMM eliminates arbitrage opportunities when external market prices are efficient, reducing liquidity provider risk.
QTNet uses deep reinforcement learning to automate trading strategies.
problem Handling noisy and high-frequency financial data, balancing exploration and exploitation.
method QTNet employs deep reinforcement learning (DRL) with imitative learning to autonomously formulate trading strategies.
result QTNet demonstrates proficiency in extracting robust market features and adaptability to diverse conditions.
MASA framework uses RL to balance portfolio returns and risks.
problem Managing portfolio risk in turbulent financial markets.
method Multi-agent reinforcement learning with a market observer.
result MASA framework outperforms RL approaches in balancing returns and risks.
The paper solves a portfolio selection problem in incomplete markets by balancing utility and risk.
problem Time-inconsistent portfolio selection in incomplete markets.
method Characterizes equilibrium via a coupled quadratic BSDE system, introduces approximate equilibrium for general cases.
result Established existence theory for equilibrium strategies in special and general cases.
Classifies Bitcoin addresses based on their balance functions.
problem Understanding and identifying Bitcoin addresses used for illicit activities.
method Functional data analysis to extract features from balance functions.
result Functional principal components improve prediction accuracy.
Understanding how funding and 4H context regulate crypto markets.
problem Analyzing the chaotic appearance of financial markets.
method Observing interactions between market context and capital conditions in the 4H timeframe.
result Ranges in crypto markets are strategic positioning by informed participants, not indecision.
This paper offers a framework for FX dealers to decide between internalizing and externalizing their market making to balance risk control and costs.
problem FX dealers face risk from flow uncertainty and need to decide on internalization vs. externalization strategies.
method Develops an optimal control framework that balances pricing and hedging strategies.
result Provides insights into the trade-off between risk control and transaction costs in market making.
Automatically balances blockchain network resources to boost market efficiency.
problem Extractable value leakage and execution frictions in blockchain networks.
method Systematically uses idle network resources for arbitrage, incentivizing transactions.
result Reduces network inventory risk while enhancing price formation and liquidity.
RL optimizes trading algorithms to reduce market impact and costs.
problem Optimizing sophisticated trading algorithms to minimize market impact and costs.
method Reinforcement learning framework within a market simulator.
result RL-derived strategies consistently outperform baselines and operate near the efficient frontier.
New deep learning method improves financial stress testing accuracy.
problem Traditional stress testing methods are criticized for unrealistic assumptions and estimation errors.
method Proposes a novel Deep Learning approach for Dynamic Balance Sheet Stress Testing.
result Empirical results show significant improvement in accuracy over traditional methods.
Optimal penalties for RECs balance environmental and revenue impacts.
problem Optimizing penalties for RECs to balance environmental and revenue impacts.
method Mean field games and extended McKean-Vlasov control problems.
result Optimal penalty function is linear in agents' state.
A new concept, called balanced estimator of diffusion entropy, is proposed to detect scalings in short time series. The effectiveness of the method is verified by means of a large number of artificial fractional Brownian motions. It is used also to detect scaling properties and structural breaks in stock price series o…