A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Study compares empirical systemic risk with balance sheet risk in interbank networks.
A new XVA strategy rooted in balance sheet perspective improves equity process for bank shareholders.
Model shows how banks' hidden-to-maturity accounting can mask run risk and lead to financial instability.
New deep learning method improves financial stress testing accuracy.
In this work, we present a numerical method based on a sparse grid approximation to compute the loss distribution of the balance sheet of a financial or an insurance company. We first describe, in a stylised way, the assets and liabilities dynamics that are used for the numerical estimation of the balance sheet distrib…
We consider a model of contagion in financial networks recently introduced in the literature, and we characterize the effect of a few features empirically observed in real networks on the stability of the system. Notably, we consider the effect of heterogeneous degree distributions, heterogeneous balance sheet size and…
A modern version of Monetary Circuit Theory with a particular emphasis on stochastic underpinning mechanisms is developed. It is explained how money is created by the banking system as a whole and by individual banks. The role of central banks as system stabilizers and liquidity providers is elucidated. It is shown how…
Examines various types of cryptocurrencies and their economic properties.
A simple banking network model is proposed which features multiple waves of bank defaults and is analytically solvable in the limiting case of an infinitely large homogeneous network. The model is a collection of nodes representing individual banks; associated with each node is a balance sheet consisting of assets and …
This paper uses PCA and FA for feature selection in credit rating.
This paper finds a new method for decomposing insurer profits and losses.
The paper assesses VASPs' solvency using multiple data sources.
We formulate banks' capital optimization problem as a classic mean variance optimization, by leveraging an accurate linear approximation to the Shapely or Constrained Aumann-Shapley (CAS) allocation of max or nested max cost functions. This reduced form formulation admits an analytical solution, to the optimal leverage…
Study shows how financial report sentiment impacts bank profitability.
The global financial crisis, beginning in 2008, took an historic toll on national economies around the world. Following equity market crashes, unemployment rates rose significantly in many countries: Italy was among those. What will be the impact of such large shocks on Italian healthcare finances? An empirical model f…
We consider a model of financial contagion in a bipartite network of assets and banks recently introduced in the literature, and we study the effect of power law distributions of degree and balance-sheet size on the stability of the system. Relative to the benchmark case of banks with homogeneous degrees and balance-sh…
This paper reviews the economic and theoretical foundations of insolvency risk measurement and capital adequacy rules. The proposed new measure of insolvency risk is constructed by disentangling assets, debt and equity at the micro-prudential firm level. This new risk index is the Firm Insolvency Risk Index (FIRI) whic…
Compound interest as well as inflation grows exponentially with time, whereas other means to repay debt grow polynomially. For this and other, mostly political, reasons, debt without inflation is unsustainable. We suggest a discontinuous way to eliminate debt by nullifying it. This scenario is preferable to current cen…
In this paper we present a novel approach for firm default probability estimation. The methodology is based on multivariate contingent claim analysis and pair copula constructions. For each considered firm, balance sheet data are used to assess the asset value, and to compute its default probability. The asset pricing …
This systemic risk paper introduces inhomogeneous random financial networks (IRFNs). Such models are intended to describe parts, or the entirety, of a highly heterogeneous network of banks and their interconnections, in the global financial system. Both the balance sheets and the stylized crisis behaviour of banks are …
I show the equivalence between a model of financial contagion and the threshold model of global cascades proposed by Watts (2002). The model financial network comprises banks that hold risky external assets as well as interbank assets. It is shown that a simple threshold model can replicate the size and the frequency o…
Model predicts insolvency risks in banks due to liquidity and credit risks.
This article contains the first published example of a real economic balance sheet where the Solvency II ratio substantially depends on the seed selected for the random number generator (RNG) used. The theoretical background and the main quality criteria for RNGs are explained in detail. To serve as a gauge for RNGs, a…
One of the main issues affecting the Italian NHS is the healthcare deficit: according to current agreements between the Italian State and its Regions, public funding of regional NHS is now limited to the amount of regional deficit and is subject to previous assessment of strict adherence to constraint on regional healt…
Study introduces new financial ratios for better predicting company performance.
A world sheet in anti-de Sitter space is a timelike submanifold consisting of a one-parameter family of spacelike submanifolds. We consider the family of lightlike hypersurfaces along spacelike submanifolds in the world sheet. The locus of the singularities of lightlike hypersurfaces along spacelike submanifolds forms …
In the Minkowski space-time, a world hyper-sheet is a timelike hypersurface consisting of a one-parameter family of spacelike submanifolds. Recently, Bousso and Randall introduced the notion of caustics of world hyper-sheets in order to define the notion of holographic domains in space-time. Here, we give a mathematica…
Study financial contagion and risk in sparse networks with directed edges.
Paper tackles score following in full-page sheet music images.
The effect of self-default on the valuation of liabilities and derivatives (DVA) has been widely discussed but the effect on assets has not received similar attention. Any asset whose value depends on the status, or existence, of the firm will have a DVA. We extend (Burgard and Kjaer 2011) to provide a hedging strategy…
We consider a disk-shaped thin elastic sheet bonded to a compliant sphere. (Our sheet can slip along the sphere; the bonding controls only its normal displacement.) If the bonding is stiff (but not too stiff), the geometry of the sphere makes the sheet wrinkle to avoid azimuthal compression. The total energy of this sy…
A world sheet in Lorentz-Minkowski space is a timelike submanifold consisting of a one-parameter family of spacelike submanifolds in Lorentz-Minkowski space. In this paper we investigate differential geometry of world sheets in Lorentz-Minkowski space as an application of the theory of big wave fronts.
Model shows bailout stigma affects firm funding and market performance.
We introduce a general model for the balance-sheet consistent valuation of interbank claims within an interconnected financial system. Our model represents an extension of clearing models of interdependent liabilities to account for the presence of uncertainty on banks' external assets. At the same time, it also provid…
Hempel has shown that the fundamental groups of knot complements are residually finite. This implies that every nontrivial knot must have a finite-sheeted, noncyclic cover. We give an explicit bound, , such that if is a nontrivial knot in the three-sphere with a diagram with crossings and a particularly s…
Researchers create minimal surfaces with Scherk ends and find catenoid limits.
An agent-based model for firms' dynamics is developed. The model consists of firm agents with identical characteristic parameters and a bank agent. Dynamics of those agents is described by their balance sheets. Each firm tries to maximize its expected profit with possible risks in market. Infinite growth of a firm dire…
The study uses CoDa to analyze family business financial ratios, highlighting methodological issues.
The nature of monetary arrangements is often discussed without any reference to its detailed construction. We present a graph representation that allows for a clear understanding of modern monetary systems. First, we show that systems based on commodity money are incompatible with credit. We then study the current char…
The edge of torn elastic sheets and growing leaves often form a hierarchical buckling pattern. Within non-Euclidean plate theory this complex morphology can be understood as low bending energy isometric immersions of hyperbolic Riemannian metrics. With this motivation we study the isometric immersion problem in strip a…
Weakly stable constant mean curvature (CMC) hypersurfaces are stable critical points of the area functional with respect to volume preserving deformations. We establish a pointwise curvature estimate (in the non-singular dimensions) and a sheeting theorem (in all dimensions) for weakly stable CMC hypersurfaces, giving …
In this fact sheet we give some preliminary research results on the Bayesian Decision Theory. This theory has been under construction for the past two years. But what started as an intuitive enough idea, now seems to have the makings of something more fundamental.
The goal of score following is to track a musical performance, usually in the form of audio, in a corresponding score representation. Established methods mainly rely on computer-readable scores in the form of MIDI or MusicXML and achieve robust and reliable tracking results. Recently, multimodal deep learning methods h…
We present a network-based framework for simulating systemic risk that considers shock propagation in banking systems. In particular, the framework allows the modeller to reflect a top-down framework where a shock to one bank in the system affects the solvency and liquidity position of other banks, through systemic mar…
We investigate compactness phenomena involving free boundary minimal hypersurfaces in Riemannian manifolds of dimension less than eight. We provide natural geometric conditions that ensure strong one-sheeted graphical subsequential convergence, discuss the limit behaviour when multi-sheeted convergence happens and deri…
This paper shows how to create surface-links with many triple points.
Proposes a bond portfolio solution for managing interest rate risk.
Novel defects in hyperbolic sheets explain complex wrinkling patterns in nature.