A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Paper introduces stability in model averaging and proposes a L2-penalty method.
The paper examines the consistency of item embeddings in recommendation systems.
Presently the most successful approaches to semi-supervised learning are based on consistency regularization, whereby a model is trained to be robust to small perturbations of its inputs and parameters. To understand consistency regularization, we conceptually explore how loss geometry interacts with training procedure…
Tail averaging consists in averaging the last examples in a stream. Common techniques either have a memory requirement which grows with the number of samples to average, are not available at every timestep or do not accomodate growing windows. We propose two techniques with a low constant memory cost that perform tail …
Many problems in machine learning and game theory can be formulated as saddle-point problems, for which various first-order methods have been developed and proven efficient in practice. Under the general convex-concave assumption, most first-order methods only guarantee an ergodic convergence rate, that is, the uniform…
Paper improves BN structure learning from incomplete data.
Study on predicting graph labels at nodes using local averaging and distance estimation.
Predictions are issued on the basis of certain information. If the forecasting mechanisms are correctly specified, a larger amount of available information should lead to better forecasts. For point forecasts, we show how the effect of increasing the information set can be quantified by using strictly consistent scorin…
This paper improves deep learning model consistency through ensemble methods.
This paper solves aggregation of Pareto optimal models by using Bayesian priors and weighted averaging.
Dropout and similar stochastic neural network regularization methods are often interpreted as implicitly averaging over a large ensemble of models. We propose STE (stochastically trained ensemble) layers, which enhance the averaging properties of such methods by training an ensemble of weight matrices with stochastic r…
New methods for better uncertainty prediction in ML.
EC method calibrates neural networks by matching average confidence to correct label proportion.
We consider the problem of sequential sampling from a finite number of independent statistical populations to maximize the expected infinite horizon average outcome per period, under a constraint that the expected average sampling cost does not exceed an upper bound. The outcome distributions are not known. We construc…
In many high-dimensional estimation problems the main task consists in minimizing a cost function, which is often strongly non-convex when scanned in the space of parameters to be estimated. A standard solution to flatten the corresponding rough landscape consists in summing the losses associated to different data poin…
New method quantifies uncertainty in distributed regression.
Active learning seeks to build the best possible model with a budget of labelled data by sequentially selecting the next point to label. However the training set is no longer \textit{iid}, violating the conditions required by existing consistency results. Inspired by the success of Stone's Theorem we aim to regain cons…
The paper uses deep neural networks to estimate and infer ATE without needing to know the dimension of the data.
Study improves statistical inference for CATEs using Lasso and DML.
Pairwise comparison data arises in many domains, including tournament rankings, web search, and preference elicitation. Given noisy comparisons of a fixed subset of pairs of items, we study the problem of estimating the underlying comparison probabilities under the assumption of strong stochastic transitivity (SST). We…
Paper tackles inconsistent CATE estimation across group assignments.
This study uses moving average cluster entropy to analyze financial market dynamics.
SNAP improves robust computation by emphasizing trustworthy items and downweighting outliers.
This paper compares average-K and top-K classification methods under ambiguity.
GPA improves LLM training speed by 8.71% for Llama-160M models.
Spectral density matrix estimation of multivariate time series is a classical problem in time series and signal processing. In modern neuroscience, spectral density based metrics are commonly used for analyzing functional connectivity among brain regions. In this paper, we develop a non-asymptotic theory for regularize…
A new method averages neural network parameters to rank features robustly.
We explore the performance of sample average approximation in comparison with several other methods for stochastic optimization when there is information available on the underlying true probability distribution. The methods we evaluate are (a) bagging; (b) kernel smoothing; (c) maximum likelihood estimation (MLE); and…
In the practice of point prediction, it is desirable that forecasters receive a directive in the form of a statistical functional, such as the mean or a quantile of the predictive distribution. When evaluating and comparing competing forecasts, it is then critical that the scoring function used for these purposes be co…
In this paper we study time-consistent risk measures for returns that are given by a GARCH(1,1) model. We present a construction of risk measures based on their static counterparts that overcomes the lack of time-consistency. We then study in detail our construction for the risk measures Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Average…
High quality reconstruction with interventional C-arm cone-beam computed tomography (CBCT) requires exact geometry information. If the geometry information is corrupted, e. g., by unexpected patient or system movement, the measured signal is misplaced in the backprojection operation. With prolonged acquisition times of…
Proposes a framework to reconcile policy learning and profit maximization in CATE estimation.
This paper investigates the utilization of maximum and average distance correlations for multivariate independence testing. We characterize their consistency properties in high-dimensional settings with respect to the number of marginally dependent dimensions, compare the advantages of each test statistic, examine thei…
Study identifies and validates a method for system identification of Markov jump linear systems.
Generalizes causal inference to high-dimensional outcomes.
In this paper, we focus on quantifying model stability as a function of random seed by investigating the effects of the induced randomness on model performance and the robustness of the model in general. We specifically perform a controlled study on the effect of random seeds on the behaviour of attention, gradient-bas…
Gas demand is made of three components: Residential, Industrial, and Thermoelectric Gas Demand. Herein, the one-day-ahead prediction of each component is studied, using Italian data as a case study. Statistical properties and relationships with temperature are discussed, as a preliminary step for an effective feature s…
Aioli unifies language model data mixing methods and improves performance.
Deep models, while being extremely versatile and accurate, are vulnerable to adversarial attacks: slight perturbations that are imperceptible to humans can completely flip the prediction of deep models. Many attack and defense mechanisms have been proposed, although a satisfying solution still largely remains elusive. …
ScoreMatchingRiesz improves debiased machine learning and policy effects estimation.
Overparameterized neural networks can be highly accurate on average on an i.i.d. test set yet consistently fail on atypical groups of the data (e.g., by learning spurious correlations that hold on average but not in such groups). Distributionally robust optimization (DRO) allows us to learn models that instead minimize…
Gradient descent biases neural networks to use an average of features, leading to non-robustness.
Regularization improves robustness of smoothed classifiers.
We calculate realized volatility of the Nikkei Stock Average (Nikkei225) Index on the Tokyo Stock Exchange and investigate the return dynamics. To avoid the bias on the realized volatility from the non-trading hours issue we calculate realized volatility separately in the two trading sessions, i.e. morning and afternoo…
Estimates CATEs using high-dimensional linear regression models.
Optimal model averaging for conditional generative models improves performance across various data types.
Paper proposes a fair grading method for randomized exams.
In this paper, we propose a robust method to estimate the average treatment effects in observational studies when the number of potential confounders is possibly much greater than the sample size. We first use a class of penalized M-estimators for the propensity score and outcome models. We then calibrate the initial e…