A new neural network for efficient density estimation.
problem Efficient density estimation for high-dimensional data.
method Triangular neural network implementation of neural autoregressive flow (NAF).
result Achieves state-of-the-art bits-per-dimension indices on MNIST and CIFAR-10.
ARMA cell simplifies neural autoregressive modeling for time series.
problem Complex RNN cells are not always necessary and can be inferior.
method Introduces ARMA cell, a simpler, modular approach for neural time series modeling.
result The ARMA cell is competitive with popular alternatives in performance.
HCNAF models complex conditional distributions for probabilistic occupancy forecasting.
problem Modeling complex conditional probability density functions for occupancy forecasting.
method Hyper-Conditioned Neural Autoregressive Flow (HCNAF) combining AF and hyper-network.
result HCNAF achieves state-of-the-art performance in self-driving datasets.
New method estimates spin system mutual information using neural networks.
problem Estimating mutual information in spin systems.
method Monte Carlo sampling enhanced by autoregressive neural networks.
result Area law satisfied for temperatures away from critical temperature.
New method makes machine learning approximations unbiased and efficient.
problem Efficient sampling of complex probability distributions.
method Uses autoregressive neural networks with cluster updates and physical symmetries.
result Shows unbiased and low-variance approximations for phase transitions.
Normalizing flows and autoregressive models have been successfully combined to produce state-of-the-art results in density estimation, via Masked Autoregressive Flows (MAF), and to accelerate state-of-the-art WaveNet-based speech synthesis to 20x faster than real-time, via Inverse Autoregressive Flows (IAF). We unify a…
Paper uses surprisal to dynamically allocate computation between fast and slow models.
problem Dynamic allocation of computation in neural networks.
method Surprisal-based dynamic model selection.
result Model can match baseline performance with 15% fewer FLOPs.
Normalising flows (NFS) map two density functions via a differentiable bijection whose Jacobian determinant can be computed efficiently. Recently, as an alternative to hand-crafted bijections, Huang et al. (2018) proposed neural autoregressive flow (NAF) which is a universal approximator for density functions. Their fl…
The paper develops a learning theory for neural network-based CHARME models.
problem Developing a learning theory for CHARME models using neural networks.
method Proves the stationarity and ergodicity of CHARME models under weak conditions, then applies neural networks to derive strong consistency and asymptotic normality of estimators.
result Strong consistency and asymptotic normality of NN-based estimators of CHARME model weights and biases under weak conditions.
Paper proposes a neural network method for fast, interpretable AR model estimation.
problem Computational inefficiency and convergence issues in conventional AR model estimation.
method Embeds autoregressive structure into a feedforward neural network for coefficient estimation via backpropagation.
result Neural network method consistently recovers AR model coefficients, converging in all cases and providing reliable estimates.
Identification of a groundwater contaminant source simultaneously with the hydraulic conductivity in highly-heterogeneous media often results in a high-dimensional inverse problem. In this study, a deep autoregressive neural network-based surrogate method is developed for the forward model to allow us to solve efficien…
Improved simulation of phase transitions using hierarchical autoregressive networks.
problem Simulating phase transitions in complex systems.
method Hierarchical Autoregressive Neural (HAN) network sampling algorithm.
result Significant improvement in statistical uncertainty compared to the Wolff cluster algorithm.
The framework of normalizing flows provides a general strategy for flexible variational inference of posteriors over latent variables. We propose a new type of normalizing flow, inverse autoregressive flow (IAF), that, in contrast to earlier published flows, scales well to high-dimensional latent spaces. The proposed f…
CTRNNs improve blood glucose forecasting in ICU, outperforming traditional models.
problem Forecasting blood glucose in ICU with irregular measurements.
method Continuous time autoregressive recurrent neural networks (CTRNNs) using neural ODE or neural flow layers.
result CTRNNs generally outperform traditional autoregressive models in probabilistic forecasting of blood glucose.
This work maps Boltzmann distributions to ARNNs for better physics-based model approximations.
problem Approximating Boltzmann distributions of binary systems.
method Exact mapping of Boltzmann distribution to autoregressive neural network architecture.
result New ARNN architectures derived from physical models show superior performance.
Neural networks improve gravitational-wave parameter estimation.
problem Estimating parameters of binary black hole systems from gravitational-wave data.
method Autoregressive normalizing flows for likelihood-free inference.
result Performance comparable to current best deep-learning approaches, with fast sampling.
PARNN improves ARNN with ARIMA feedback for accurate long-range forecasting.
problem Accurate long-range forecasting of complex time series data.
method Improves ARNN using ARIMA feedback, providing uncertainty quantification.
result PARNN outperforms state-of-the-art forecasters across various horizons.
Neural density estimators are flexible families of parametric models which have seen widespread use in unsupervised machine learning in recent years. Maximum-likelihood training typically dictates that these models be constrained to specify an explicit density. However, this limitation can be overcome by instead using …
Vector autoregressive models characterize a variety of time series in which linear combinations of current and past observations can be used to accurately predict future observations. For instance, each element of an observation vector could correspond to a different node in a network, and the parameters of an autoregr…
Proposes DCNAR for dynamic causal inference from neural time series.
problem Uncertainty and evolution of causal structure in real-world domains.
method Two-stage neural causal modeling integrating discovery and inference.
result Dynamic causal inferences are more stable and meaningful than alternatives.
Monotonic neural networks have recently been proposed as a way to define invertible transformations. These transformations can be combined into powerful autoregressive flows that have been shown to be universal approximators of continuous probability distributions. Architectures that ensure monotonicity typically enfor…
Long short-term memory network outperforms seasonal model in JSE Top 40 forecasting.
problem Comparing neural network performance to traditional models in financial forecasting.
method Used long short-term memory network for JSE Top 40 return data forecasting.
result Long short-term memory network outperforms seasonal model in forecasting.
Multivariate binary distributions can be decomposed into products of univariate conditional distributions. Recently popular approaches have modeled these conditionals through neural networks with sophisticated weight-sharing structures. It is shown that state-of-the-art performance on several standard benchmark dataset…
Graph neural networks improve volatility forecasts and portfolio performance.
problem Improving volatility forecasting for better portfolio performance.
method Compared Heterogeneous Autoregressive and Long Short-Term Memory models with GraphSAGE models built on rolling correlation, sector, and Granger-causal graphs.
result GraphSAGE models with macro regime features outperform other models in terms of forecast accuracy, ranking quality, and portfolio Sharpe ratio.
Generative Adversarial Graph Neural Network (Sig-Graph GAN) models financial time series data.
problem Challenges in generating synthetic data for non-stationary financial time series.
method Integrates time-series signature, LSTM, and GNNs with visibility graph algorithm.
result Sig-Graph GAN outperforms baseline methods in replicating time series data distributions.
This review compares various deep generative models.
problem Training deep neural networks to model data distributions.
method Comprehensive comparison of VAEs, GANs, flows, energy models, and autoregressives.
result Trade-offs and interrelationships among different models.
LMConv improves autoregressive models for image generation and completion.
problem Limited generation order in autoregressive models restricts their applicability.
method Introduces LMConv, a modified 2D convolution that allows arbitrary masks to be applied to weights.
result LMConv achieves improved performance on image density estimation and coherent completions.
We propose a general framework for solving statistical mechanics of systems with finite size. The approach extends the celebrated variational mean-field approaches using autoregressive neural networks, which support direct sampling and exact calculation of normalized probability of configurations. It computes variation…
ARMA nets expand receptive fields for dense prediction tasks.
problem Global information in dense prediction problems is challenging for traditional convolutional layers.
method ARMA layers with adjustable autoregressive coefficients replace traditional convolutions.
result ARMA networks improve dense prediction tasks including video prediction and semantic segmentation.
Tensor networks improve unsupervised learning performance.
problem Improving unsupervised machine learning models.
method Autoregressive Matrix Product States (AMPS) combining quantum and machine learning.
result AMPS significantly outperforms existing tensor network models and neural networks.
Any discussion on exchange rate movements and forecasting should include explanatory variables from both the current account and the capital account of the balance of payments. In this paper, we include such factors to forecast the value of the Indian rupee vis a vis the US Dollar. Further, factors reflecting political…
Improved lattice field theory simulations with local-Autoregressive Conditional Normalizing Flow.
problem Efficiently sampling lattice field theories with computational challenges.
method Integrates locality into autoregressive conditional normalizing flows.
result Autocorrelation times improved by orders of magnitude for φ4 theory on a 2D lattice. ARTree uses deep learning to infer tree topologies efficiently.
problem Efficient phylogenetic inference from tree topologies.
method Deep autoregressive model based on graph neural networks (GNNs).
result ARTree provides a flexible family of distributions over tree topologies.
EventFlow forecasts event sequences without autoregression, improving accuracy.
problem Forecasting errors in autoregressive models for event sequences.
method EventFlow uses flow matching to learn joint distributions over event times directly.
result EventFlow reduces forecast error by 20%-53% compared to baselines.
Efficiently combines autoregressive and set-based models for joint distributions.
problem Joint distributions over multiple predictions from set-based models.
method Causal autoregressive buffer that caches context and captures dependencies.
result Up to 20x faster joint sampling and density evaluation, up to 7x lower memory usage.
We introduce a deep, generative autoencoder capable of learning hierarchies of distributed representations from data. Successive deep stochastic hidden layers are equipped with autoregressive connections, which enable the model to be sampled from quickly and exactly via ancestral sampling. We derive an efficient approx…
We propose a method for solving statistical mechanics problems defined on sparse graphs. It extracts a small Feedback Vertex Set (FVS) from the sparse graph, converting the sparse system to a much smaller system with many-body and dense interactions with an effective energy on every configuration of the FVS, then learn…
CARRNN tackles deep learning for sporadic data, improving prediction errors in healthcare.
problem Challenges in learning temporal patterns from sporadic multivariate longitudinal data.
method Developed a novel deep learning architecture combining RNN and CAR models, using a generalized discrete-time autoregressive model.
result CARRNN achieves the lowest prediction errors in multivariate time-series regression tasks.
Transformers become faster by linearizing self-attention.
problem Quadratic complexity of transformers makes them slow for long sequences.
method Expressed self-attention as a linear dot-product and used matrix product associativity to reduce complexity.
result Linear transformers are up to 4000x faster on long sequences.
Estimates causal effects using neural autoregressive density estimators.
problem Estimating causal effects in non-linear systems.
method Neural autoregressive density estimators within Pearl's do-calculus framework.
result Retrieves causal effects from non-linear systems without explicit modeling.
There has been a lot of recent interest in designing neural network models to estimate a distribution from a set of examples. We introduce a simple modification for autoencoder neural networks that yields powerful generative models. Our method masks the autoencoder's parameters to respect autoregressive constraints: ea…
SXL embeds spatial autocorrelation into neural networks for better geographic data learning.
problem Difficulties in learning spatial effects for neural networks in geographic data.
method SXL uses auxiliary tasks and autoregressive embeddings to learn spatial autocorrelation.
result SXL improves neural network training in unsupervised and supervised learning tasks.
ARCNPs improve CNPs by autoregressively modeling dependencies.
problem CNPs struggle with modeling dependencies in predictions.
method Autoregressive deployment of factorized Gaussian CNPs.
result ARCNPs significantly outperform non-AR CNPs in various tasks.
We present a method for feature interpretation that makes use of recent advances in autoregressive density estimation models to invert model representations. We train generative inversion models to express a distribution over input features conditioned on intermediate model representations. Insights into the invariance…
Autoregressive models are among the best performing neural density estimators. We describe an approach for increasing the flexibility of an autoregressive model, based on modelling the random numbers that the model uses internally when generating data. By constructing a stack of autoregressive models, each modelling th…
Traffic flow forecasting is hot spot research of intelligent traffic system construction. The existing traffic flow prediction methods have problems such as poor stability, high data requirements, or poor adaptability. In this paper, we define the traffic data time singularity ratio in the dropout module and propose a …
Convolutional Neural Processes improve data efficiency in neural processes.
problem Improving data efficiency in neural processes for small datasets.
method Convolutional Neural Processes (ConvNPs) improve data efficiency by leveraging translation equivariance and convolutional neural networks.
result ConvNPs enhance the performance of neural processes in small-data problems.
Study finds optimal vocabulary size for neural machine translation.
problem Imbalanced class distribution in language data affects NMT performance.
method Casts NMT as a classification task, analyzes vocabulary sizes, and tests multiple languages.
result Certain vocabulary sizes outperform others, explaining NMT performance.