BMBO-DARN optimizes expensive functions with varying fidelities.
problem Optimizing expensive, multi-fidelity functions efficiently.
method Batch Multi-fidelity Bayesian Optimization with Deep Auto-Regressive Networks.
result BMBO-DARN improves surrogate learning and optimization performance.
Auto-regressive models improve smoothing efficiency with exponentially tapered windows.
problem Improving time-series smoothing efficiency.
method An auto-regressive formulation for time-series smoothing.
result Auto-regressive models result in moving means with exponentially tapered windows.
Proof of Gaussian ML estimator consistency in linear auto-regressive models.
problem Consistency of Gaussian maximum likelihood estimator in linear auto-regressive models.
method Information-theoretic proof without stability assumptions.
result Nearly optimal non-asymptotic rates for parameter recovery.
The paper proposes a new auto-regressive model for multivariate distributional time series.
problem Statistical analysis of multivariate time series of probability measures.
method Wasserstein space, auto-regressive model, iterated random function systems.
result Consistent estimator for auto-regressive coefficients with sparse structure.
CAFLOW uses auto-regressive flows to translate images efficiently.
problem Image-to-image translation tasks.
method Transforms conditioning image into latent encodings using normalizing flows, models conditional distribution with auto-regressive distributions.
result Outperforms former conditional flow designs.
Hybrid model combines VAR and neural network for OFI prediction.
problem Accurate prediction of Order Flow Imbalance (OFI) in high frequency trading.
method Combines Vector Auto Regression (VAR) and a simple feedforward neural network (FNN).
result Hybrid model achieves superior predictive accuracy compared to standalone models.
Auto-regressive models learn latent states from partially observed linear dynamical systems.
problem Understanding how auto-regressive models learn latent representations from partially observed linear dynamical systems.
method Empirical risk minimization on partially observed linear dynamical systems.
result Two-layer linear auto-regressive models learn to approximate Kalman filtering, coinciding with optimal state estimates.
VEST automates feature engineering for time series forecasting.
problem Challenges in time series forecasting with improved performance.
method VEST combines auto-regression with statistical summarization of recent past dynamics.
result VEST significantly improves forecasting performance.
In this paper, non-linear time series models are used to describe volatility in financial time series data. To describe volatility, two of the non-linear time series are combined into form TAR (Threshold Auto-Regressive Model) with AARCH (Asymmetric Auto-Regressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity) error term and its par…
Cactus improves auto-regressive decoding speed without sacrificing quality.
problem Accelerating auto-regressive decoding while maintaining output quality.
method Formalizes speculative sampling as constrained optimization and proposes Cactus for controlled divergence from the verifier distribution.
result Empirically validated effectiveness across various benchmarks.
Paper reduces vocabulary losslessly for language model cooperation.
problem Language models struggle to cooperate with different tokenizations.
method Established a theoretical framework for lossless vocabulary reduction.
result Efficiently converts models with different tokenizations to cooperate with maximal common vocabulary.
TraDE uses self-attention for better density estimation of tabular and image data.
problem Improving density estimation for tabular and image data.
method Self-attention-based architecture trained with a penalized maximum likelihood objective.
result TraDE produces significantly better density estimates than existing methods.
DSARF models complex spatio-temporal data with deep switching auto-regressive factors.
problem Forecasting complex spatio-temporal data with recurring patterns.
method Deep switching auto-regressive factorization (DSARF) with stochastic variational inference.
result DSARF outperforms state-of-the-art methods in long- and short-term prediction accuracy.
VAR-GPs solve continual learning by updating posteriors sequentially.
problem Catastrophic forgetting in sequential learning tasks.
method Sparse inducing point approximations and auto-regressive variational distribution.
result VAR-GPs prevent catastrophic forgetting and outperform baselines.
Transformer adapts to graphs with adaptive attention and auto-regressive decoding.
problem Transformers struggle with graph data due to non-sequential nature.
method Proposes GRAT, a Transformer variant with adaptive attention and auto-regressive decoding.
result GRAT achieves state-of-the-art performance on molecule property predictions and generation tasks.
Improved text generation with constraints using discrete auto-regressive biasing.
problem Balancing fluency and constraint satisfaction in LLM outputs.
method Discrete Auto-regressive Biasing, leveraging gradients in discrete text space.
result Significantly improved constraint satisfaction with comparable fluency.
Consider a multi-variate time series (Xt)t=0T where Xt∈Rd which may represent spike train responses for multiple neurons in a brain, crime event data across multiple regions, and many others. An important challenge associated with these time series models is to estimate an influence network be…
A method for identifying NPWARX models with arbitrary domains using probabilistic mixture models.
problem Identifying hybrid system models with discontinuous maps.
method Probabilistic mixture model with a neural network for nonlinear partitioning and Expectation Maximization for parameter estimation.
result Demonstrated on a nonlinear piece-wise problem with discontinuous maps.
In recent years, deep learning has proven to be a viable methodology for surrogate modeling and uncertainty quantification for a vast number of physical systems. However, in their traditional form, such models can require a large amount of training data. This is of particular importance for various engineering and scie…
We introduce a spatio-temporal convolutional neural network model for trajectory forecasting from visual sources. Applied in an auto-regressive way it provides an explicit probability distribution over continuations of a given initial trajectory segment. We discuss it in relation to (more complicated) existing work and…
A new method estimates expectations from subtractive mixture models without sampling.
problem Estimating expectations from multimodal distributions using SMMs.
method Difference representation of SMMs to create unbiased IS estimator (ΔextEx). result Demonstrates that ΔextEx can achieve comparable estimation quality to auto-regressive sampling but is faster. We introduce graph normalizing flows: a new, reversible graph neural network model for prediction and generation. On supervised tasks, graph normalizing flows perform similarly to message passing neural networks, but at a significantly reduced memory footprint, allowing them to scale to larger graphs. In the unsupervis…
MDMs train to decode tokens in a random order, which affects performance; we show they can be optimized for a favorable order.
problem Performance of MDMs is affected by the random order in which tokens are decoded.
method We show that MDMs can be optimized for a favorable decoding order by equipping their continuous-time variational objective with multivariate noise schedules.
result MDMs can be decomposed into a weighted auto-regressive losses over orders, making them auto-regressive models with learnable orders.
Discovery of atomistic systems with desirable properties is a major challenge in chemistry and material science. Here we introduce a novel, autoregressive, convolutional deep neural network architecture that generates molecular equilibrium structures by sequentially placing atoms in three-dimensional space. The model e…
Auto-regressive diffusion models improve capturing conditional dependence in data.
problem Vanilla diffusion models struggle to capture important, high-level relationships in real-world data.
method Developed auto-regressive diffusion models to better capture conditional dependence structures.
result AR diffusion models produce samples with a reduced gap in approximating the data conditional distribution.
With latent variables, stochastic recurrent models have achieved state-of-the-art performance in modeling sound-wave sequence. However, opposite results are also observed in other domains, where standard recurrent networks often outperform stochastic models. To better understand this discrepancy, we re-examine the role…
A new method improves text generation quality and diversity.
problem Exposure bias in Maximum Likelihood Estimation for text generation.
method ψ-MLE, a new training scheme based on density ratio estimation.
result ψ-MLE outperforms Maximum Likelihood Estimation and other models in text generation quality and diversity.
Improves naturalness in TTS samples using quantized VAE and auto-regressive prosody.
problem Discontinuous and unnatural speech from standard VAE priors.
method Discretized latent features using vector quantization (VQ), and separately trained autoregressive (AR) prior model.
result Significantly improves naturalness in random sample generation.
In this paper we propose WaveGlow: a flow-based network capable of generating high quality speech from mel-spectrograms. WaveGlow combines insights from Glow and WaveNet in order to provide fast, efficient and high-quality audio synthesis, without the need for auto-regression. WaveGlow is implemented using only a singl…
This paper compares traditional econometric and contemporary machine/deep learning techniques for forecasting foreign exchange rates.
problem Accurate prediction of foreign exchange rates for investment purposes.
method Multivariate time series analysis using Vector Auto Regression, Support Vector Machine, and Recurrent Neural Networks.
result Contemporary machine/deep learning techniques outperform traditional econometric methods in forecasting foreign exchange rates.
This paper addresses the problem of inferring sparse causal networks modeled by multivariate auto-regressive (MAR) processes. Conditions are derived under which the Group Lasso (gLasso) procedure consistently estimates sparse network structure. The key condition involves a "false connection score." In particular, we sh…
We introduce an auto-regressive model which captures the growing nature of realistic markets. In our model agents do not trade with other agents, they interact indirectly only through a market. Change of their wealth depends, linearly on how much they invest, and stochastically on how much they gain from the noisy mark…
In this paper we present a new framework for time-series modeling that combines the best of traditional statistical models and neural networks. We focus on time-series with long-range dependencies, needed for monitoring fine granularity data (e.g. minutes, seconds, milliseconds), prevalent in operational use-cases. Tra…
Numerous empirical proofs indicate the adequacy of the time discrete auto-regressive stochastic volatility models introduced by Taylor in the description of the log-returns of financial assets. The pricing and hedging of contingent products that use these models for their underlying assets is a non-trivial exercise due…
Improved language models by incorporating statistical discriminators.
problem Distinguishing model-generated text from real text reliably.
method Energy-Based Model framework to incorporate discriminators.
result Improves language model performance in perplexity and human evaluation.
Enhanced multi-fidelity models improve digital twin accuracy and uncertainty quantification.
problem Lack of detailed application-specific data and inaccurate sensor data hinder surrogate model learning for digital twins.
method Proposes a multi-fidelity surrogate model framework integrating PCFE and GP, and deep-HPCFE with auto-regression schemes.
result Demonstrates improved accuracy and uncertainty quantification in digital twin systems.
New approach predicts tokens in context, explaining how ICL emerges.
problem Limited understanding of in-context learning emergence.
method Auto-regressive next-token prediction (AR-NTP) with prompt token-dependency and a two-level expectation.
result ICL emerges from the generalization of sequences and topics.
Popular graph neural networks implement convolution operations on graphs based on polynomial spectral filters. In this paper, we propose a novel graph convolutional layer inspired by the auto-regressive moving average (ARMA) filter that, compared to polynomial ones, provides a more flexible frequency response, is more …
Probabilistic forecasting, i.e. estimating the probability distribution of a time series' future given its past, is a key enabler for optimizing business processes. In retail businesses, for example, forecasting demand is crucial for having the right inventory available at the right time at the right place. In this pap…
Global models outperform univariate benchmarks in complex time series forecasting.
problem Comparing global forecasting models to univariate benchmarks in various challenging scenarios.
method Simulated datasets with controlled characteristics, including homogeneity, complexity, and series lengths. Global forecasting models (RNN, LGBM) compared to univariate techniques.
result Global models like RNN and LGBM are competitive in complex scenarios with short series lengths and heterogeneous data.
We propose a generic confidence-based approximation that can be plugged in and simplify the auto-regressive generation process with a proved convergence. We first assume that the priors of future samples can be generated in an independently and identically distributed (i.i.d.) manner using an efficient predictor. Given…
Theoretical analysis of deep neural networks for time series data.
problem Theoretical development for deep neural networks on temporally dependent observations is lacking.
method Established non-asymptotic bounds for prediction error of deep neural networks under mixing-type assumptions.
result Deep neural networks can model non-linear time series data with additional logarithmic factors due to dependence.
Generative models speed up complex system simulations.
problem Accurately forecasting the dynamics of complex systems at reduced cost.
method Generative Learning of Effective Dynamics (G-LED) using auto-regressive attention and Bayesian diffusion models.
result Generative models can accurately forecast complex system dynamics at lower computational cost.
Online graph learning from matrix-valued time series data.
problem Identifying dependency structure among sensors in a network.
method Extends VAR models to matrix-variate models, proposes online procedures for graph learning, and introduces Lasso-type approaches.
result Demonstrates effectiveness of online graph learning methods in both synthetic and real data.
A new framework predicts links in time-dependent networks using Bernoulli autoregression.
problem Predicting links in time-dependent networks with additional auxiliary information.
method A Bernoulli autoregressive model with regularization for link discovery.
result The model can discover new links not present in the data.
Simple GBRT model improved by window-based input transformation outperforms state-of-the-art deep learning models.
problem Improving performance of traditional forecasting models for time series data.
method Transformed GBRT model input structure to include target values and external features, forming one input instance per training window.
result Simple GBRT model with window-based input transformation outperformed state-of-the-art deep learning models on nine datasets.
A new RG approach connects discrete and continuous time descriptions of Gaussian processes.
problem Discretization of continuous stochastic processes for accurate simulation or model inference.
method Renormalization Group (RG) approach for Gaussian time series generated by auto-regressive models.
result RG fixed points correspond to discretizations of linear SDEs, providing insights into process accuracy.
We present a new classification method for quasar identification in the EROS-2 and MACHO datasets based on a boosted version of Random Forest classifier. We use a set of variability features including parameters of a continuous auto regressive model. We prove that continuous auto regressive parameters are very importan…