A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Proposes a model for multi-horizon probabilistic forecasting of time series influenced by asynchronous events.
problem Forecasting time series influenced by asynchronous events is challenging.
method Introduces Variational Synergetic Multi-Horizon Network (VSMHN), a deep conditional generative model combining deep point processes and variational recurrent neural networks.
result Produces accurate, sharp, and realistic probabilistic forecasts.
Despite the eminent successes of deep neural networks, many architectures are often hard to transfer to irregularly-sampled and asynchronous time series that commonly occur in real-world datasets, especially in healthcare applications. This paper proposes a novel approach for classifying irregularly-sampled time series…
We present a method to compensate statistical errors in the calculation of correlations on asynchronous time series. The method is based on the assumption of an underlying time series. We set up a model and apply it to financial data to examine the decrease of calculated correlations towards smaller return intervals (E…
Event sequence, asynchronously generated with random timestamp, is ubiquitous among applications. The precise and arbitrary timestamp can carry important clues about the underlying dynamics, and has lent the event data fundamentally different from the time-series whereby series is indexed with fixed and equal time inte…
For researching the association between coal enterprise management and return in financial market, this paper applies the method of time difference relevance and PageRank method to seek the leader-index of a stock set containing 21 coal enterprises in A-share market and score those stocks. Based on the return in 2011, …
There are time series that are amenable to recurrent neural network (RNN) solutions when treated as sequences, but some series, e.g. asynchronous time series, provide a richer variation of feature types than current RNN cells take into account. In order to address such situations, we introduce a unified RNN that handle…
Batch Bayesian optimisation (BO) has been successfully applied to hyperparameter tuning using parallel computing, but it is wasteful of resources: workers that complete jobs ahead of others are left idle. We address this problem by developing an approach, Penalising Locally for Asynchronous Bayesian Optimisation on k…
We study the volatility functional inference by Fourier transforms. This spectral framework is advantageous in that it harnesses the power of harmonic analysis to handle missing data and asynchronous observations without any artificial time alignment nor data imputation. Under conditions, this spectral approach is cons…
Although distributed computing can significantly reduce the training time of deep neural networks, scaling the training process while maintaining high efficiency and final accuracy is challenging. Distributed asynchronous training enjoys near-linear speedup, but asynchrony causes gradient staleness - the main difficult…
Significant progress has been made in the area of model-based reinforcement learning. State-of-the-art algorithms are now able to match the asymptotic performance of model-free methods while being significantly more data efficient. However, this success has come at a price: state-of-the-art model-based methods require …
Machine learning has made tremendous progress in recent years, with models matching or even surpassing humans on a series of specialized tasks. One key element behind the progress of machine learning in recent years has been the ability to train machine learning models in large-scale distributed shared-memory and messa…
This paper describes Plumbing for Optimization with Asynchronous Parallelism (POAP) and the Python Surrogate Optimization Toolbox (pySOT). POAP is an event-driven framework for building and combining asynchronous optimization strategies, designed for global optimization of expensive functions where concurrent function …
In machine learning, asynchronous parallel stochastic gradient descent (APSGD) is broadly used to speed up the training process through multi-workers. Meanwhile, the time delay of stale gradients in asynchronous algorithms is generally proportional to the total number of workers, which brings additional deviation from …
We design and analyse variations of the classical Thompson sampling (TS) procedure for Bayesian optimisation (BO) in settings where function evaluations are expensive, but can be performed in parallel. Our theoretical analysis shows that a direct application of the sequential Thompson sampling algorithm in either synch…
In AI research and industry, machine learning is the most widely used tool. One of the most important machine learning algorithms is Gradient Boosting Decision Tree, i.e. GBDT whose training process needs considerable computational resources and time. To shorten GBDT training time, many works tried to apply GBDT on Par…
Internet of things (IoT) devices are becoming increasingly popular thanks to many new services and applications they offer. However, in addition to their many benefits, they raise privacy concerns since they share fine-grained time-series user data with untrusted third parties. In this work, we study the privacy-utilit…
Large scale machine learning is increasingly relying on distributed optimization, whereby several machines contribute to the training process of a statistical model. In this work we study the performance of asynchronous, distributed settings, when applying sparsification, a technique used to reduce communication overhe…
PARyOpt is a python based implementation of the Bayesian optimization routine designed for remote and asynchronous function evaluations. Bayesian optimization is especially attractive for computational optimization due to its low cost function footprint as well as the ability to account for uncertainties in data. A key…
The Epps effect, the decrease of correlations between stock returns for short time windows, was traced back to the trading asynchronicity and to the occasional lead-lag relation between the prices. We study pairs of stocks where the latter is negligible and confirm the importance of asynchronicity but point out that al…
In order to simulate the complex phenomena manifested in stock markets, we introduce a continuous asynchronous model in which millions of individual traders interact through a central orders matching mechanism, just as it happens in real stock markets. Each trader has a unique decision function, which allows him/ her t…