Proposes a model for multi-horizon probabilistic forecasting of time series influenced by asynchronous events.
problem Forecasting time series influenced by asynchronous events is challenging.
method Introduces Variational Synergetic Multi-Horizon Network (VSMHN), a deep conditional generative model combining deep point processes and variational recurrent neural networks.
result Produces accurate, sharp, and realistic probabilistic forecasts.
New models predict future events with uncertainty.
problem Predicting future events in asynchronous sequences with uncertainty.
method Two new architectures, WGP-LN and FD-Dir, modeling time-dependent distributions.
result Models outperform other approaches in various datasets.
Latent Block-Diffusion Temporal Point Processes (LBDTPP) is a semi-autoregressive framework for generating asynchronous event sequences.
problem Generating asynchronous event sequences
method Latent Block-Diffusion Temporal Point Processes
result Outperforms state-of-the-art TPP baselines in both unconditional and conditional generation tasks
This paper describes Plumbing for Optimization with Asynchronous Parallelism (POAP) and the Python Surrogate Optimization Toolbox (pySOT). POAP is an event-driven framework for building and combining asynchronous optimization strategies, designed for global optimization of expensive functions where concurrent function …
Enhances Fourier estimator performance for asynchronous event-data.
problem Improving correlation and covariance estimation on event-data.
method Implement and test NUFFT methods with different averaging kernels.
result Demonstrates improved performance and relationship between averaging scales.
New asynchronous algorithms improve speed in decentralized optimization networks.
problem Hard convergence analysis for asynchronous decentralized optimization.
method Continuized framework to analyze heterogeneous delays in event-driven updates.
result Achieves asynchronous speedup with convergence rate controlled by eigengap weighted by local delays.
Study compares and accelerates deep learning for extreme events modeling.
problem Modeling extreme events for better prediction and understanding.
method Asynchronous distributed learning with local SGD.
result Significant training duration reduction up to 8x.
Agent-based model simulates market dynamics with real-time order matching.
problem Realistic simulation of market dynamics with realistic price impact.
method Agent-based model with asynchronous, event-time order matching.
result Realistic price impact curves and stylized facts presented.
Event sequence, asynchronously generated with random timestamp, is ubiquitous among applications. The precise and arbitrary timestamp can carry important clues about the underlying dynamics, and has lent the event data fundamentally different from the time-series whereby series is indexed with fixed and equal time inte…
In a wide variety of applications, humans interact with a complex environment by means of asynchronous stochastic discrete events in continuous time. Can we design online interventions that will help humans achieve certain goals in such asynchronous setting? In this paper, we address the above problem from the perspect…
CAUSE learns Granger causality from event sequences, outperforming existing methods.
problem Learning Granger causality from complex, interdependent event sequences.
method CAUSE uses a neural point process to capture interdependency and an attribution method to extract Granger causality.
result CAUSE outperforms state-of-the-art methods in inferring inter-type Granger causality.
Event sequences can be modeled by temporal point processes (TPPs) to capture their asynchronous and probabilistic nature. We propose an intensity-free framework that directly models the point process distribution by utilizing normalizing flows. This approach is capable of capturing highly complex temporal distributions…
Many real-world applications require robust algorithms to learn point processes based on a type of incomplete data --- the so-called short doubly-censored (SDC) event sequences. We study this critical problem of quantitative asynchronous event sequence analysis under the framework of Hawkes processes by leveraging the …
Asynchronous Gibbs sampling has been recently shown to be fast-mixing and an accurate method for estimating probabilities of events on a small number of variables of a graphical model satisfying Dobrushin's condition~\cite{DeSaOR16}. We investigate whether it can be used to accurately estimate expectations of functions…
Anticipatory model generates music with control over events.
problem Controlling symbolic music generation.
method Interleaving event and control sequences to predict future events.
result Anticipatory model matches autoregressive models in performance and can infill control tasks.
Model simulates correlation emergence in two coupled limit order books.
problem Modeling correlation emergence in coupled limit order books.
method Simulated two coupled diffusive limit order books using random walks in the fluid limit, with trader interactions.
result Demonstrated the recovery of an Epps effect from the model.
Proposes a new framework to disentangle event influences in MTPP.
problem Underexplored how individual events influence overall dynamics over time.
method Decoupled MTPP framework using Neural Ordinary Differential Equations (Neural ODEs).
result Significantly improves performance on real-life datasets compared to state-of-the-art methods.
EvAn detects anomalies in event-based camera data with reduced complexity.
problem Anomaly detection in event-based camera data.
method Dual discriminator cGAN on event data with learned representation.
result Reduction in computational complexity compared to state-of-the-art methods.
The episodic, irregular and asynchronous nature of medical data render them difficult substrates for standard machine learning algorithms. We would like to abstract away this difficulty for the class of time-stamped categorical variables (or events) by modeling them as a renewal process and inferring a probability dens…
Paper introduces a novel point process model for graph data using GNNs.
problem Modeling discrete event data over graphs with influence kernel.
method Combines Hawkes kernel and Graph Neural Networks (GNN) for event prediction.
result Achieves superior predictive performance compared to state-of-the-art.
ISAHP discovers instance-level causal structures in event sequences.
problem Discovering fine-grained causal relationships in asynchronous, interdependent event sequences.
method ISAHP, a novel deep learning framework using self-attention mechanism.
result ISAHP meets Granger causality requirements and discovers complex causal structures.
Researchers simulate and estimate a market model with a matching engine to understand its impact on order submission and management.
problem The impact of a matching engine on the modeling of order submission and management in financial markets.
method Simulation of a 10-variate Hawkes process with rules for different order types, including limit orders, to compare model parameters with the original order generating process.
result Practical considerations, not directly related to model specification, can significantly distort the true model specification in an asynchronous trading environment.
Mamba Hawkes Process improves modeling of event sequences with long-term dependencies.
problem Modeling mutual inhibition and nonlinearity in asynchronous event sequences.
method Introduces Mamba Hawkes Process using Mamba state space architecture.
result MHP outperforms existing models across various datasets.
Asynchronous events on the continuous time domain, e.g., social media actions and stock transactions, occur frequently in the world. The ability to recognize occurrence patterns of event sequences is crucial to predict which typeof events will happen next and when. A de facto standard mathematical framework to do this …
We propose an effective method to solve the event sequence clustering problems based on a novel Dirichlet mixture model of a special but significant type of point processes --- Hawkes process. In this model, each event sequence belonging to a cluster is generated via the same Hawkes process with specific parameters, an…
As a powerful tool of asynchronous event sequence analysis, point processes have been studied for a long time and achieved numerous successes in different fields. Among various point process models, Hawkes process and its variants attract many researchers in statistics and computer science these years because they capt…
The paper challenges the assumption of a unique global time in financial markets, highlighting market incompleteness.
problem The assumption of a unique global time in financial markets is challenged.
method The paper contrasts event-time, renewal, point-process, and order-flow descriptions of financial markets.
result Non-uniqueness of time leads to a more foundational form of market incompleteness.
Ringmaster ASGD improves Asynchronous SGD's efficiency under varying worker times.
problem Suboptimal performance of Asynchronous SGD under heterogeneous worker computation times.
method Ringmaster ASGD, a novel Asynchronous SGD method with optimal time complexity.
result Ringmaster ASGD achieves optimal time complexity under arbitrary worker heterogeneity.
Predicting fine-grained interests of users with temporal behavior is important to personalization and information filtering applications. However, existing interest prediction methods are incapable of capturing the subtle degreed user interests towards particular items, and the internal time-varying drifting attention …
Patients with epilepsy can manifest short, sub-clinical epileptic "bursts" in addition to full-blown clinical seizures. We believe the relationship between these two classes of events---something not previously studied quantitatively---could yield important insights into the nature and intrinsic dynamics of seizures. A…
AEGiS optimizes expensive function evaluations asynchronously.
problem Optimizing expensive black-box functions efficiently.
method Asynchronous ε-Greedy Bayesian Optimisation combining greedy search and Thompson sampling.
result AEGiS outperforms existing asynchronous BO methods.
Secure aggregation for buffered asynchronous federated learning without TEEs.
problem Privacy and convergence in buffered asynchronous federated learning.
method Developed a new protocol (BASecAgg) that ensures privacy without TEEs by carefully designing masks.
result BASecAgg achieves similar convergence guarantees as FedBuff without TEEs.
Standard acquisition functions are sufficient for asynchronous Bayesian optimization.
problem Redundant and repeated queries in asynchronous Bayesian optimization.
method Conceptual analysis and theoretical guarantees of standard acquisitions.
result Standard acquisition functions achieve theoretical guarantees equivalent to Thompson sampling in asynchronous settings.
SHIFT simulates realistic financial markets for research and industry.
problem Creating a realistic simulation platform for financial market research.
method Developed a highly realistic financial market simulator with multiple traders and assets.
result Demonstrated that automated agents can produce price processes similar to real markets.
Batch Bayesian optimisation (BO) has been successfully applied to hyperparameter tuning using parallel computing, but it is wasteful of resources: workers that complete jobs ahead of others are left idle. We address this problem by developing an approach, Penalising Locally for Asynchronous Bayesian Optimisation on k…
Asynchronous method for hyperparameter and neural architecture search.
problem Efficiently searching for optimal hyperparameters and neural architectures.
method Model-based, asynchronous multi-fidelity method combining Hyperband and Gaussian process-based Bayesian optimization.
result Substantial speed-ups over current state-of-the-art methods on various benchmarks.
This work tackles resource allocation in asynchronous and stochastic systems.
problem Distributed resource allocation in asynchronous and stochastic settings.
method Approximate stochastic primal-dual approach with asynchronous updates.
result The Asynchronous stochastic Primal-Dual (Asyn-PD) algorithm converges to the saddle point solution at a rate of O(1/t). Advances in asynchronous optimization methods for machine learning.
problem Efficiently solving large-scale optimization problems in machine learning.
method Asynchronous parallel and distributed optimization methods, accounting for information delays.
result Degree of asynchrony impacts convergence rates in stochastic optimization methods.
New Fourier transform method handles missing data and asynchronous observations.
problem Volatility inference with missing or asynchronous data.
method Spectral framework using Fourier transforms.
result Consistent volatility functional estimation with limit distributions.
As datasets continue to increase in size and multi-core computer architectures are developed, asynchronous parallel optimization algorithms become more and more essential to the field of Machine Learning. Unfortunately, conducting the theoretical analysis asynchronous methods is difficult, notably due to the introducti…
FedBuff improves federated learning scalability with asynchronous updates.
problem Limited scalability of federated learning with synchronous updates.
method Introduces asynchronous updates (staleness) in federated learning.
result Theoretical analysis shows improved convergence rate with boundedness removed.
The asymptotic pseudo-trajectory approach to stochastic approximation of Benaim, Hofbauer and Sorin is extended for asynchronous stochastic approximations with a set-valued mean field. The asynchronicity of the process is incorporated into the mean field to produce convergence results which remain similar to those of a…
We show that asymptotically, completely asynchronous stochastic gradient procedures achieve optimal (even to constant factors) convergence rates for the solution of convex optimization problems under nearly the same conditions required for asymptotic optimality of standard stochastic gradient procedures. Roughly, the n…
Distributed asynchronous SGD has become widely used for deep learning in large-scale systems, but remains notorious for its instability when increasing the number of workers. In this work, we study the dynamics of distributed asynchronous SGD under the lens of Lagrangian mechanics. Using this description, we introduce …
In machine learning, asynchronous parallel stochastic gradient descent (APSGD) is broadly used to speed up the training process through multi-workers. Meanwhile, the time delay of stale gradients in asynchronous algorithms is generally proportional to the total number of workers, which brings additional deviation from …
Unified analysis of asynchronous-SGD algorithms for distributed learning.
problem Analyzing asynchronous-SGD in heterogeneous settings with varying speeds and data distributions.
method Unified convergence theory for non-convex smooth functions, including pure asynchronous SGD and its modifications.
result Unified convergence rates for various asynchronous algorithms, including novel methods.
Paper proves CLTs for Q-learning with asynchronous updates.
problem Establishing convergence rates for Q-learning algorithms.
method Polyak-Ruppert averaging, non-asymptotic and functional CLTs.
result Convergence rates in Wasserstein distance for Q-learning.
Accelerates optimization in asynchronous systems with sparse updates.
problem Optimizing finite-sum objectives in asynchronous lock-free environments.
method New accelerated SVRG variant with sparse updates.
result Achieves optimal incremental gradient complexity.