Asymptotic error distribution for approximation of a stochastic integral with respect to continuous semimartingale by Riemann sum with general stochastic partition is studied. Effective discretization schemes of which asymptotic conditional mean-squared error attains a lower bound are constructed. Two applications are …
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48 results for “asymptotic mean integrated squared error”
Double Q-learning has the same mean-squared error as Q-learning under certain conditions.
problem Comparing the mean-squared error of Double Q-learning and Q-learning.
method Theoretical analysis based on Lyapunov equations for both tabular and linear function approximation settings.
result The asymptotic mean-squared error of Double Q-learning is exactly equal to that of Q-learning under specific conditions.
We consider a univariate semimartingale model for (the logarithm of) an asset price, containing jumps having possibly infinite activity (IA). The nonparametric threshold estimator of the integrated variance IV proposed in Mancini 2009 is constructed using observations on a discrete time grid, and precisely it sums up t…
Combines experimental and historical data for robust policy evaluation.
problem Policy evaluation with mixed data sources, especially experimental vs historical.
method Linear integration of estimators from experimental and historical data, optimized for MSE minimization.
result Proposed estimators outperform traditional methods in ridesharing company data.
TAKDE optimizes kernel density estimation for real-time dynamic processes.
problem Real-time density estimation in applications like computer vision and signal processing.
method Derives asymptotic mean integrated squared error (AMISE) upper bound for 'sliding window' kernel density estimator and proposes TAKDE as a novel, theoretically optimal estimator.
result TAKDE outperforms other dynamic density estimators in terms of test log-likelihood and runtime.
The most important aspect of any classifier is its error rate, because this quantifies its predictive capacity. Thus, the accuracy of error estimation is critical. Error estimation is problematic in small-sample classifier design because the error must be estimated using the same data from which the classifier has been…
Paper optimizes diffusion models for denoising tasks with theoretical guarantees.
problem Lack of theoretical understanding of MSE optimality in diffusion models.
method Inspired by MSE-optimal CME, proposes a novel denoising strategy for diffusion models.
result Demonstrates polynomial-time convergence to the CME under mild conditions.
This paper introduces a class of k-nearest neighbor (-NN) estimators called bipartite plug-in (BPI) estimators for estimating integrals of non-linear functions of a probability density, such as Shannon entropy and Rényi entropy. The density is assumed to be smooth, have bounded support, and be uniformly bounded from…
The paper analyzes how data augmentation affects the test error in regression models.
problem Understanding the impact of data augmentation on the test error in regression models.
method Characterizes the test error in terms of population quantities and augmentation statistics.
result Provides a tight characterization of the test error in mean squared error.
Paper proposes a new UCB approach for estimating maximum mean.
problem Estimating the maximum mean in various applications.
method Upper Confidence Bound (UCB) approach with adaptive sampling.
result LSA estimator shows faster bias decay compared to GA.
Novel Hilbert space Gaussian process improves sequential design accuracy and efficiency.
problem Efficiently implementing Gaussian process acquisition functions for expensive simulations.
method Proposed a truncated eigenbasis representation for closed-form evaluation of IMSE acquisition function.
result Significantly lower prediction error and reduced computation time compared to benchmarks.
Asymptotic Analysis of Sampling Estimators for Randomized Numerical Linear Algebra Algorithmsmath.ST
The statistical analysis of Randomized Numerical Linear Algebra (RandNLA) algorithms within the past few years has mostly focused on their performance as point estimators. However, this is insufficient for conducting statistical inference, e.g., constructing confidence intervals and hypothesis testing, since the distri…
Off-policy estimation of linear functionals: Non-asymptotic theory for semi-parametric efficiencymath.ST
The paper analyzes methods for estimating linear functionals from observational data, proving upper bounds and showing optimal procedures.
problem Estimating linear functionals from observational data in causal inference and bandit literature.
method Two-stage procedures that first estimate treatment effect function, then use it to estimate the linear functional.
result Proves non-asymptotic upper bounds on mean-squared error for two-stage procedures and shows instance-dependent optimality.
Non asymptotic estimation lower bounds for LTI state space models with Cramér-Rao and van Treesmath.ST
Study non-asymptotic estimation bounds for LTI models with Gaussian noise.
problem Estimating parameters of LTI models with non-asymptotic error bounds.
method Sharp non-asymptotic lower bounds using Cramér-Rao and van Trees inequalities, concentration results, and differential geometric constructions.
result Sharp and rate-optimal lower bounds for mean square estimation risk.
In this paper, we consider the nonparametric least square regression in a Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Space (RKHS). We propose a new randomized algorithm that has optimal generalization error bounds with respect to the square loss, closing a long-standing gap between upper and lower bounds. Moreover, we show that our al…
We study the asymptotic behaviour of doubly periodic instantons with square-integrable curvature. Then, we establish the equivalence given by the Nahm transform between the doubly periodic instantons with square integrable curvature and the wild harmonic bundles on the dual torus.
Paper improves volatility estimation using a Queue-Reactive model.
problem Volatility estimation from high-frequency data is biased by microstructure noise.
method Uses Queue-Reactive model of limit order book to improve volatility estimation.
result Unified and alternation estimators lead to optimal mean squared error for integrated volatility.
This paper provides performance guarantees for neural estimation of statistical distances.
problem Developing performance guarantees for neural estimation of statistical distances.
method Non-asymptotic error bounds using function approximation theorems and empirical process theory.
result Established a fundamental tradeoff between approximation and estimation errors in neural estimation of statistical distances.
Deep neural networks enforce non-crossing quantile regression curves.
problem Estimating quantile regression curves without crossing.
method Penalized deep ReQU neural networks with a non-crossing penalty.
result Established non-asymptotic risk and error bounds for the estimated QRP.
A method for noise reduction in functional time series using FPCA.
problem Noise contamination in functional time series.
method Extending FPCA to separate signal and noise components.
result Optimal projection minimizes mean integrated squared error.
Mack's estimator improves chain ladder prediction for large exposure insurance models.
problem Uncertainty quantification in compound Poisson loss models.
method Large exposure asymptotics applied to Mack's estimator.
result Chain ladder prediction uncertainty can be quantified without model assumptions.
The stochastic gradient descent (SGD) optimization algorithm plays a central role in a series of machine learning applications. The scientific literature provides a vast amount of upper error bounds for the SGD method. Much less attention as been paid to proving lower error bounds for the SGD method. It is the key cont…
In this work, we consider the hedging error due to discrete trading in models with jumps. Extending an approach developed by Fukasawa [In Stochastic Analysis with Financial Applications (2011) 331-346 Birkhäuser/Springer Basel AG] for continuous processes, we propose a framework enabling us to (asymptotically) optimize…
On Linear Stochastic Approximation: Fine-grained Polyak-Ruppert and Non-Asymptotic Concentrationstat.ML
Study on stochastic approximation with Polyak-Ruppert averaging for linear systems.
problem Understanding the asymptotic and non-asymptotic properties of stochastic approximation procedures.
method Detailed analysis of linear stochastic approximation with Polyak-Ruppert averaging, focusing on asymptotic and non-asymptotic properties.
result Proves CLT and non-asymptotic concentration inequality for averaged iterates, providing refined understanding of linear stochastic approximation.
Study improves BN TTA under distribution shift using higher-order asymptotics.
problem Improving BN TTA for changing data distributions.
method Integrates Edgeworth expansion and saddlepoint approximation with one-step M-estimation.
result Derives optimal weighting parameter for minimized mean-squared error.
Simplex Random Featuresstat.ML
A new method for approximating softmax and Gaussian kernels with reduced error.
problem Approximating softmax and Gaussian kernels with low error.
method Simplex Random Features (SimRFs) and SimRFs+.
result SimRFs provide the smallest MSE among weight-independent geometrically-coupled PRF mechanisms.
Optimizes sliding window approach for tracking Gaussian densities.
problem Improving tracking performance of Gaussian density estimation.
method Theoretical analysis of sliding window Gaussian Kernel Density Estimators.
result Empirical evidence shows improved tracking performance with optimal weight sequence.
We study ends of an oriented, immersed, non-compact, complete Willmore surfaces, which are critical points of the integral of the square of the mean curvature, in asymptotically flat spaces of any dimension; assuming the surface has -bounded second fundamental form and satisfies a weak power growth on the area. We…
Estimates parameters of interconnected linear systems using total variation penalization.
problem Joint estimation of parameters in interconnected linear dynamical systems.
method Total variation penalized least-squares estimator.
result The MSE goes to zero as the number of systems increases, even with constant trajectory length.
Constant Step Size Least-Mean-Square: Bias-Variance Trade-offs and Optimal Sampling Distributionscs.LG
We consider the least-squares regression problem and provide a detailed asymptotic analysis of the performance of averaged constant-step-size stochastic gradient descent (a.k.a. least-mean-squares). In the strongly-convex case, we provide an asymptotic expansion up to explicit exponentially decaying terms. Our analysis…
We consider the problem of estimating the mean of a symmetric log-concave distribution under the constraint that only a single bit per sample from this distribution is available to the estimator. We study the mean squared error as a function of the sample size (and hence the number of bits). We consider three settings:…
This paper studies robust estimation methods in high dimensions, comparing model-averaged and composite quantile estimators.
problem Understanding robustness in high-dimensional regularized estimation.
method Optimal weights are determined by minimizing the asymptotic mean squared error, incorporating regularization effects without perfect selection.
result Model-averaged and composite quantile estimators often outperform least-squares methods in prediction quality.
Gradient descent dynamics in wide neural networks are analyzed using a dynamical CLT.
problem Understanding the fluctuations in wide shallow neural networks trained via gradient descent.
method Dynamical Central Limit Theorem (CLT) applied to neural network dynamics.
result Asymptotic fluctuations remain bounded in mean square throughout training.
Paper introduces stability in model averaging and proposes a L2-penalty method.
problem Theoretical properties of model averaging from stability perspective.
method Introduces stability, defines asymptotic empirical risk minimizer, and proposes L2-penalty model averaging method.
result Proposed L2-penalty method ensures stability and consistency under reasonable conditions.
Hybrid model outperforms benchmarks in financial forecasting.
problem Robust asset price forecasting in finance.
method Combining LSTM with Neural Levy Processes using Grey Wolf Optimizer and ANN calibration.
result Hybrid model outperforms base LSTM and other models.
In recent years, kernel density estimation has been exploited by computer scientists to model machine learning problems. The kernel density estimation based approaches are of interest due to the low time complexity of either O(n) or O(n*log(n)) for constructing a classifier, where n is the number of sampling instances.…
For optimization on large-scale data, exactly calculating its solution may be computationally difficulty because of the large size of the data. In this paper we consider subsampled optimization for fast approximating the exact solution. In this approach, one gets a surrogate dataset by sampling from the full data, and …
This study calculates the maximum error of a famous estimation method.
problem Estimating rare items not seen in a sample.
method Characterizes the maximal mean-squared error of the Good-Turing estimator.
result Characterizes the maximal mean-squared error of the Good-Turing estimator.
A new method simulates square-root processes efficiently.
problem Simulating square-root processes accurately and efficiently.
method Simulate the integrated square-root process instead of the square-root process itself.
result High precision with low number of time steps, and exact limiting Inverse Gaussian distributions.
Estimates multiple linear systems on a graph with smoothness constraints.
problem Joint estimation of multiple linear systems under graph smoothness constraints.
method Proposes estimators for joint estimation of system matrices with error bounds.
result MSE converges to zero as increases, typically polynomially fast w.r.t .
Machine learning improves American option pricing accuracy.
problem Complexities of American options and traditional models' limitations.
method Monte Carlo simulations combined with machine learning algorithms (Least Square Method, LSTM, GRU).
result GRU model outperforms LSTM in predicting bid prices, enhancing accuracy and stability.
New method uses online learning to improve AIPW estimators for adaptively collected data.
problem Estimating treatment effects with adaptively collected data.
method Online learning to minimize sequentially weighted estimation error.
result Local minimax lower bound shows optimality of AIPW estimator.
PULSE estimator improves prediction in causal inference with bounded interventions.
problem Optimizing causal models for bounded interventions.
method Relates K-class estimators to anchor regression, introduces PULSE estimator for minimization of mean squared prediction error with bounded constraints.
result PULSE estimator outperforms other estimators in real data and simulation experiments, especially in weak instrument settings.
New method reveals insights about stochastic optimization methods using modified equations.
problem Understanding the qualitative behavior of stochastic optimization algorithms.
method Developed a class of stochastic differential equations to approximate the dynamics of stochastic optimization methods.
result Mean-square stability of the modified equation provides qualitative insights about stochastic coordinate descent.
Modal linear regression (MLR) is a method for obtaining a conditional mode predictor as a linear model. We study kernel selection for MLR from two perspectives: "which kernel achieves smaller error?" and "which kernel is computationally efficient?". First, we show that a Biweight kernel is optimal in the sense of minim…
Paper explores weighted averaging schemes for SGD, achieving asymptotic normality and optimality.
problem Improving convergence of SGD in various settings.
method Develops a general weighted averaging scheme for SGD and establishes asymptotic normality.
result Establishes asymptotic normality and optimality of weighted averaged SGD solutions.
Paper solves outlier robust mean estimation near breakdown point.
problem Estimating mean in presence of adversarial outliers.
method Sum-of-Squares approach to optimize error rate efficiently.
result Achieves optimal error rate for all ε ∈ [0, 1/2).
We consider a closed Willmore surface properly immersed in (m>2) with square-integrable second fundamental form, and with one point-singularity of finite arbitrary integer order. Using the "conservative" reformulation of the Willmore equation introduced in a previous paper by the second author, we show that, i…