Paper proposes a debiased estimator for adaptive linear regression.
problem Non-normal asymptotic behavior of OLS estimator in adaptive linear regression.
method Adaptive linear estimating equations to construct debiased estimator.
result Established asymptotic normality of the debiased estimator.
New asymptotic e-values improve inference by eliminating data-dependent scaling inefficiency.
problem Data-dependent scaling inefficiency in existing asymptotic e-values.
method Drawing on Bentkus's near-optimal concentration inequalities, introduce Bentkus-type asymptotic e-values.
result Bentkus-type asymptotic e-values consistently deliver sharper inference than existing alternatives.
Bayesian methods often misinterpret data and asymptotic concepts.
problem Misunderstandings in Bayesian predictive inference.
method Discussion of two specific misunderstandings.
result Consequences of misinterpretations illustrated through examples.
Paper develops online statistical inference methods for stochastic optimization using Kiefer-Wolfowitz algorithms.
problem Online statistical inference of model parameters in stochastic optimization problems.
method Kiefer-Wolfowitz algorithm with random search directions, asymptotic distribution analysis.
result Developed valid confidence intervals for online statistical inference.
Paper stabilizes bandit learning with regularization, improving inference under adaptive sampling.
problem Challenges in statistical inference with adaptive sampling.
method Refined stability condition for online algorithms, using regularized stochastic-mirror-descent-style methods.
result Derives precise regret bounds and asymptotic normality, showing necessity of regularization for valid inference.
The paper develops time-uniform inference methods for stochastic approximation parameters.
problem Statistical inference for parameters in stochastic approximation problems.
method Analysis of averaged iterates convergence rates and construction of asymptotic confidence sequences.
result Valid asymptotic confidence sequences for parameters in stochastic approximation problems.
New algorithms improve likelihood of finding global optima in Bayesian inference.
problem Finding global optima in Bayesian inference is difficult due to nonconvexity.
method Developed two algorithms: consistent Laplace approximation (CLA) and consistent stochastic variational inference (CSVI).
result Both CSVI and CLA improve likelihood of obtaining global optima compared to standard methods.
This paper introduces time-uniform CLT-based confidence intervals for statistical inference.
problem Developing valid statistical inference methods for sequential data.
method Time-uniform central limit theory and strong invariance principles.
result Asymptotic confidence sequences (CSs) that are uniformly valid over time.
The paper addresses statistical inference issues in adaptive experiments.
problem Statistical inference problems in adaptive experiments.
method Explains and fixes statistical inference issues in adaptive experiments using various methods.
result Various methods to stabilize inferences and recover asymptotic normality.
PPBoot simplifies prediction-powered inference.
problem Prediction-powered inference problems.
method Bootstrap-based method for arbitrary estimation problems.
result PPBoot often performs nearly identically to PPI(++).
The paper addresses the gap between theoretical and practical confidence set widths in universal inference.
problem Inference procedures can be overly conservative, leading to wider confidence sets than expected.
method The authors identify the source of asymptotic conservativeness and propose a remedy based on studentization and bias correction.
result The proposed method achieves exact asymptotic coverage at the nominal 1−α level, even under model misspecification. Develops methods for reliable inference on batched bandit data.
problem Need for reliable inference methods based on adaptively-collected data from bandit algorithms.
method Introduces Batched OLS (BOLS) estimator for reliable inference on bandit data.
result BOLS is asymptotically normal and robust to non-stationarity in the baseline reward.
Optimism stabilizes Thompson Sampling for adaptive inference in multi-armed bandits.
problem Subtle inferential properties of Thompson Sampling under adaptive data collection.
method Introduced optimism as a key mechanism to restore stability and validity of inference.
result Suitably implemented optimism stabilizes Thompson Sampling and enables asymptotically valid Wald inference.
Generative Augmented Inference improves AI-generated data for causal inference.
problem Challenges in using AI-generated annotations for reliable causal inference.
method Generative Augmented Inference (GAI) treats AI outputs as informative features for learning true labels, flexibly modeling the relationship using nonparametric methods.
result GAI significantly reduces estimation error and improves confidence interval quality compared to human-only and PPI-based methods.
Paper develops inference methods for low-rank tensors without debiasing.
problem Statistical inference for low-rank tensor models.
method Two-iteration alternating minimization for asymptotic distribution.
result Asymptotic distributions and confidence regions for singular subspaces.
The paper analyzes SGD with dropout regularization in linear models, proving asymptotic properties and providing inference tools.
problem Analyzing the behavior of SGD with dropout regularization in linear models.
method Establishing geometric-moment contraction (GMC) and proving quenched central limit theorems (CLT).
result The existence of a unique stationary distribution and asymptotic normality results for SGD with dropout.
GAAVI offers anytime-valid tests for CMF global null and contrasts.
problem Inference on the conditional mean function for high confidence decisions.
method Asymptotic anytime-valid tests for CMF global null and contrasts.
result Achieves asymptotic type-I error guarantees, power one, and optimal sample complexity.
Quantized Variational Inference improves ELBO optimization with fast convergence.
problem Maximizing Evidence Lower Bound (ELBO) for variational inference.
method Optimal Voronoi Tesselation for variance-free gradients, Richardson extrapolation for asymptotic improvement.
result Quantized Variational Inference leads to fast convergence with comparable computational cost.
New method improves approximate inference for Bayesian models.
problem Approximate inference for high-dimensional Bayesian models.
method Entropic regularization of mean-field variational inference.
result Improved recovery of true posterior dependency.
Study on statistical inference for nonlinear stochastic approximation with Markovian data.
problem Statistical inference for nonlinear stochastic approximation algorithms with Markovian data.
method Established a functional central limit theorem for the partial-sum process of the target parameter estimate, providing asymptotic pivotal statistics for constructing confidence intervals.
result Valid and efficient asymptotic inference method for nonlinear stochastic approximation algorithms with Markovian data.
Improves understanding of stochastic NGVI convergence rates.
problem Lack of knowledge about non-asymptotic convergence rates in stochastic NGVI.
method Proved non-asymptotic convergence rates for conjugate likelihoods and showed implicit optimization for non-conjugate likelihoods.
result First O(T1) non-asymptotic convergence rate for stochastic NGVI in conjugate likelihoods. We analyze SGAs for statistical inference via asymptotics, improving tuning methods.
problem Improper tuning of SGAs for optimization and sampling.
method Characterize large-sample asymptotics of SGAs via step-size and sample-size scaling limits.
result Iterate averaging with large step size is robust and asymptotically has covariance proportional to MLE's.
Improved statistical inference for adaptive Thompson Sampling.
problem Statistical inference challenges in Thompson Sampling.
method Inflating posterior variance in Thompson Sampling.
result Asymptotically normal estimates of arm means with logarithmic regret increase.
Paper establishes statistical inference for pairwise comparison models.
problem Statistical inference for pairwise comparison models when the number of subjects diverges.
method Identifies Fisher information matrix as a weighted graph Laplacian for asymptotic normality.
result Near-optimal asymptotic normality result for maximum likelihood estimator.
A method for efficient statistical inference from online algorithms.
problem Computational constraints in online algorithms make traditional variance estimation difficult.
method HulC method that wraps around online algorithms to produce valid confidence regions.
result The HulC method produces asymptotically valid confidence regions for online algorithms.
Paper develops methods for estimating GLMs and SNR under proportional asymptotics.
problem Estimation of regression coefficients and SNR in high-dimensional GLMs.
method Method-of-Moments type estimators that bypass nuisance function estimation.
result Consistent and asymptotically normal estimators derived for targets of inference.
The paper develops asymptotic theory for QRF variable importance, revealing a bias-variance trade-off.
problem Challenges in statistical inference for QRF variable importance due to non-smoothness and bias-variance trade-off.
method Developed asymptotic theory using pinball loss and Knight's identity, uncovered phase transition phenomenon, derived asymptotic bias.
result Theoretical foundation for understanding QRF inference limitations in high-dimensional settings.
Develops asymptotic analysis for RandNLA sampling estimators in least-squares problems.
problem Lack of distributional information for RandNLA estimators in statistical inference.
method Asymptotic analysis of sampling estimators for least-squares problems in two settings.
result Sampling estimators are asymptotically normally distributed under mild conditions.
Paper addresses identifiability and asymptotics of ODE systems from noisy data.
problem Identifying parameters and causal structure of linear ODE systems from discrete observations.
method Developed sufficient conditions for identifiability, proved consistency and asymptotic normality of NLS estimator, constructed confidence sets, and inferred causal structure.
result Consistent and asymptotically normal parameter estimator for linear ODE systems under mild conditions.
Exact inference method for Wasserstein distance with finite-sample coverage.
problem Asymptotic approximation methods for Wasserstein distance lack finite-sample validity.
method Selective Inference inspired approach for exact inference.
result Valid confidence interval for Wasserstein distance with finite-sample coverage.
New method handles missing data using AI for efficient inference.
problem Parameter estimation and inference with blockwise missing data.
method Tractable solution using AI models and semiparametric theory.
result IBM(RAY) and IBM(Adaptive) estimators achieve efficiency gains.
Estimates and infers multi-stage stationary treatment policies with variable selection.
problem Valid inference for multi-stage stationary treatment policies with high-dimensional feature variables.
method Estimate the value function using augmented inverse probability weighted estimator, apply penalty for variable selection, construct one-step improvements for valid inference.
result Improved estimators are asymptotically normal, valid inference for policy parameters demonstrated.
We propose a new procedure for inference on optimal treatment regimes in the model-free setting, which does not require to specify an outcome regression model. Existing model-free estimators for optimal treatment regimes are usually not suitable for the purpose of inference, because they either have nonstandard asympto…
High-dimensional inference for sparse spectral precision matrices
problem Inference on the spectral precision matrix at a fixed frequency
method Full likelihood-based inference using neighboring discrete Fourier transforms
result Simultaneous control of regularization, finite-sample truncation, and smoothing biases
Unified framework for predicting data changes influenced by predictions.
problem Complex feedback loops in environments where predictions alter data distributions.
method Repeated Risk Minimization (RRM) and two-step plug-in estimator integrating RePPI and Importance Sampling.
result Achieves semiparametric efficiency bound and robustness under mild misspecification.
New method infers causal effects without knowing control variables.
problem Inference errors when control variables are unknown.
method Proposes a method for inferring causal effects when control variables are unknown.
result Proves method yields asymptotically valid confidence intervals for average causal effects.
New algorithms improve estimation of treatment effects.
problem Estimating Average Treatment Effect (ATE) in adaptive settings.
method Optimistic algorithms for adaptive estimation using AIPW estimator.
result Significant theoretical and empirical gains over prior methods.
Improved statistical inference for expensive data using machine learning predictions.
problem Statistical inference under adaptive two-phase multiwave sampling with expensive measurements.
method Multiwave Predict-Then-Debias estimator combining proxy information and expensive measurements.
result Valid estimators and confidence intervals for M-estimation under adaptive sampling.
Data augmentation, by the introduction of auxiliary variables, has become an ubiquitous technique to improve convergence properties, simplify the implementation or reduce the computational time of inference methods such as Markov chain Monte Carlo ones. Nonetheless, introducing appropriate auxiliary variables while pre…
New method for online statistical inference in contextual bandits using SGD.
problem Online decision-making in contextual bandits with statistical inference.
method Weighted stochastic gradient descent for adaptive data collection.
result Asymptotic normality of the parameter estimator with improved efficiency.
Develops a framework for inferring causal relationships in networked data with uncertainty quantification.
problem Extracting reliable inference from complex Hawkes network data with uncertainty.
method Statistical inference framework based on maximum likelihood estimation and concentration inequalities of continuous-time martingales.
result Provides a non-asymptotic confidence set for uncertainty quantification.
Many generative models can be expressed as a differentiable function of random inputs drawn from some simple probability density. This framework includes both deep generative architectures such as Variational Autoencoders and a large class of procedurally defined simulator models. We present a method for performing eff…
New method for inference on strongly identified functionals even when nuisance functions are weakly identified.
problem Inference on continuous linear functionals of weakly identified nuisance functions defined by conditional moment restrictions.
method Proposes penalized minimax estimators for both the primary and debiasing nuisance functions, which can converge to fixed limits regardless of nuisance identifiability.
result Proves the asymptotic normality of a debiased estimator for the functional of interest, leading to asymptotically valid confidence intervals.
Batch normalisation doesn't affect variational inference but fails for larger batch sizes.
problem Failure of Monte Carlo Batch Normalisation (MCBN) for capturing epistemic uncertainty in larger batch sizes.
method Investigated MCBN as an approximate inference technique for Bayesian neural networks, showing its limitations and providing insights for improvement.
result For larger batch sizes, MCBN fails to capture epistemic uncertainty, requiring the batch size to be a variational parameter.
A new method for online VI in SSMs using asymptotic contrast.
problem Lack of functionality for streaming data in standard VI methods for SSMs.
method Propose maximising an IWAE-type variational lower bound on the asymptotic contrast function using stochastic approximation.
result OSIWAE allows for online learning of model parameters and latent states.
Efficient inference method for adaptive experiments with tighter confidence sequences.
problem Efficient inference of Average Treatment Effect in a changing policy sequential experiment.
method Semiparametric efficient inference using Adaptive Augmented Inverse-Probability Weighted estimator and asymptotic confidence sequences.
result Derives tighter confidence sequences for adaptive experiments under data-dependent stopping times.
Geometric framework analyzes bias in variational inference for posterior functionals.
problem Analyzing the bias of posterior functionals under variational approximations.
method Developed a geometric framework to evaluate the bias of posterior functionals using the variational tangent space.
result The leading-order bias of a posterior functional is determined by its component orthogonal to the variational tangent space.
Efficient inference for adaptive data with directional stability condition.
problem Efficient inference on scalar targets after adaptive data collection.
method Introduces directional stability, a weaker condition than i.i.d. data, and shows asymptotic normality and efficiency of estimators.
result Estimators remain asymptotically normal and semiparametrically efficient under directional stability.