LOCAL learns dynamic causal structures from time series data efficiently.
problem Challenges in discovering DAG from time series data due to dynamic nature and nonlinear interactions.
method LOCAL proposes a quasi-maximum likelihood-based score function and adaptive modules ACML and DGPL.
result LOCAL significantly outperforms existing methods in dynamic causal discovery.
Language models trained on chess board states outperform those on moves, even with causal masking.
problem Applying causal masking to spatial data for training unimodal language models.
method Trained bidirectional and causal self-attention models on both spatial (board-based) and sequential (move-based) chess data.
result Models trained on spatial board states achieve stronger playing strength than those trained on sequential data, even with causal masking.
Unified framework for ICL in causal and masked models.
problem Understanding ICL in masked language models and comparing it to causal models.
method Developed a statistical learning framework representing context by empirical measure and predicting using context and query.
result Upper bounds for masked and autoregressive objectives under Wasserstein-type regularity conditions.
New method reduces diffusion model function evaluations for discrete data.
problem High computational burden in generating samples from masked diffusion models.
method Modified causal attention mask and speculative sampling mechanism for non-factorized predictions.
result Achieved ~2x reduction in required network forward passes.
Dropout and RaM become equivalent in large ResNets as depth and width increase.
problem Improving performance in deep learning models.
method Comparing Dropout and Random Gradient Masking in ResNets.
result Dropout and RaM converge to the same large-scale limiting dynamics in ResNets.
Transformers predict price movements from limit order books.
problem Predicting price movements from limit order books.
method Causal convolutional network with masked self-attention.
result Significantly outperforms existing architectures on FI-2010 dataset.
Regulating causal effects through averaged constraints fails to enforce conditional independence.
problem Enforcing conditional independence in regulatory and analytic settings.
method Formulated causal masking as a linear program and analyzed the resulting enforcement problem from both regulator and optimizer perspectives.
result Averaged-constraint optimization often violates stratum-wise requirements while satisfying the averaged one exactly, and detection requires conditional-independence tests.
Attribution methods have been developed to explain the decision of a machine learning model on a given input. We use the Integrated Gradient method for finding attributions to define the causal neighborhood of an input by incrementally masking high attribution features. We study the robustness of machine learning model…
StrNN uses neural network structures to learn conditional independencies.
problem Learning conditional independencies in neural networks.
method Designing masks for neural networks based on binary matrix factorization.
result StrNN improves density estimation and causal inference.
New principle for disentangling latent factors using sparse regularization.
problem Disentangling latent factors from complex data.
method Sparse regularization of latent mechanisms to induce disentanglement.
result Recovery of latent variables up to permutation under certain conditions.
CSHT predicts financial returns from news using a novel transformer model on a sphere.
problem Financial forecasting from news and sentiment.
method Granger-causal hypergraph structure, Riemannian geometry, causally masked Transformer attention.
result CSHT outperforms baselines in return prediction, regime classification, and asset ranking.
XTNet estimates complex cross-treatment effects in multi-category, multi-valued settings.
problem Challenges in estimating causal effects for multi-category, multi-valued treatments.
method Dynamic Neural Masking for capturing treatment interactions without restrictive assumptions.
result XTNet consistently outperforms state-of-the-art baselines in multi-category, multi-valued treatment effect estimation.
Proposes a method for interpreting time-varying causal effect moderation in high-dimensional data.
problem Interpreting causal effect moderation in high-dimensional data with interpretability and avoiding false positives.
method Two-step method: 1) Selects a smaller model for linear causal effect moderation using Gaussian randomization, 2) Conditions on selection to construct a pivot for uniformly asymptotic semi-parametric inference.
result Consistently achieves valid coverage rates and shorter, bounded intervals in time-varying causal effect moderation.
Models predict probabilities of causation from limited data.
problem Estimating probabilities of causation requires unreliable or impractical experimental and observational data.
method Proposed Exact-MLP and Mask-MLP models trained on reliable subpopulations.
result Models achieve average MAEs of roughly 0.03, reducing MAE by 80%.
This paper studies the problem of learning causal structures from observational data. We reformulate the Structural Equation Model (SEM) with additive noises in a form parameterized by binary graph adjacency matrix and show that, if the original SEM is identifiable, then the binary adjacency matrix can be identified up…
Structured State-Space Duality connects SSMs to masked attention.
problem Connecting SSMs and attention mechanisms for efficient modeling.
method Formalizing and generalizing SSD from scalar-identity to diagonal state matrices.
result Diagonal SSMs match training complexity lower bounds and support richer dynamics.
Transformer-based method for causal discovery with prior knowledge integration.
problem Complex nonlinear dependencies and spurious correlations in time series data.
method Multi-layer Transformer forecaster with gradient-based causal structure extraction and attention masking for prior knowledge integration.
result Significant improvement in causal discovery and causal lag estimation compared to state-of-the-art methods.
A new method for efficient causal structure learning at scale.
problem Causal structure learning is computationally challenging at scale.
method Relaxed sparsest-permutation formulation with support-level relaxation and masked zero-fill incomplete Cholesky factorization.
result The method enables scalable comparison of candidate orderings and matches the accuracy of slower baselines.
New study finds best language model architecture and pretraining objective for zero-shot tasks.
problem Evaluating which language model architectures and pretraining objectives best enable zero-shot generalization.
method Compared three model architectures and two pretraining objectives across 170 billion tokens, with and without finetuning.
result Causal decoder-only models trained on autoregressive language modeling exhibit strongest zero-shot generalization.
SKI speeds up Toeplitz Neural Networks by avoiding explicit decay bias and using frequency response.
problem Efficiently compute and update Toeplitz matrices in neural networks.
method Sparse plus low-rank decomposition, asymmetric SKI, frequency response modeling.
result Achieved significant speedup with minimal performance loss.
Aggregated variables can mask causal effects, turning unconfounded into confounded relations.
problem Aggregated variables can mask causal effects, leading to paradoxical confounding.
method Analysis of how aggregated variables can change the definition of causality and the feasibility of causal relations.
result Macro causal relations are defined by micro states, not just aggregated variables.
This paper analyzes MaskGIT sampler and introduces a moment sampler for faster masked diffusion sampling.
problem Efficiently sampling from masked diffusion models.
method Theoretical analysis of MaskGIT sampler, introduction of moment sampler, and two innovations for improving choose-then-sample efficiency.
result The moment sampler is an asymptotically equivalent, more interpretable alternative to MaskGIT.
New insights show Medicaid impacts on ED use vary widely, with some groups seeing significant increases.
problem Understanding the varied impacts of Medicaid on emergency department use.
method Causal machine learning methods to identify heterogeneous impacts.
result Meaningful heterogeneity in the effect of Medicaid on ED use, with a small group driving the overall effect.
ST-MTM models complex time series by decomposing and masking seasonal and trend components.
problem Forecasting complex time series with intricate temporal variations.
method Seasonal-Trend Decomposition with Masking and Contrastive Learning.
result ST-MTM achieves superior forecasting performance compared to existing methods.
RGI improves robustness of GAN-inversion for image restoration and anomaly detection.
problem Robustness of GAN-inversion to unknown gross corruptions.
method Proposes RGI and R-RGI methods with provable robustness guarantees.
result Restored images and corrupted region masks converge to ground truth under mild assumptions.
New framework estimates demand responses across multiple contexts with limited price variation.
problem Estimating heterogeneous linear price-response functions across multiple contexts with limited price variation and confounding.
method Meta-learning framework that identifies conditional mean of task-specific causal demand parameters given a subset of task-specific observables.
result Improved recovery of demand responses relative to standard transfer-learning baselines.
FoundCause: Causal Discovery with Latent Confounders from Observational Data
problem Causal discovery from observational data
method FoundCause, an amortized causal discovery model trained on synthetic data
result FoundCause outperforms classical and amortized methods on real-world datasets
A common strategy for sparse linear regression is to introduce regularization, which eliminates irrelevant features by letting the corresponding weights be zeros. However, regularization often shrinks the estimator for relevant features, which leads to incorrect feature selection. Motivated by the above-mentioned issue…
New analysis reveals masked self-supervised learning's effectiveness in extracting data structure.
problem Analyzing masked self-supervised learning in high-dimensional data.
method Developed precise high-dimensional analysis of masked modeling objectives.
result Identified phase transitions and structured regimes for masked self-supervised learning.
Temporal Causal Prior-Data Fitted Networks (TCPFN) for industrial time series causal discovery
problem Estimating causal effects in industrial time series
method Temporal Causal Prior-Data Fitted Networks
result Zero-shot causal discovery with explicit reliability signals
Prediction-powered causal inference achieves smaller asymptotic variance than traditional methods.
problem Estimating causal and structural parameters in a semi-supervised setting.
method Combining efficient influence function with debiased machine learning and semi-supervised Riesz regression.
result Asymptotic variances of estimators match the derived efficiency bound.
Paper proposes a machine learning framework for VLSI mask optimization.
problem Costly VLSI mask optimization due to complex processes.
method Heterogeneous OPC framework using machine learning.
result Demonstrates efficiency and effectiveness of the proposed framework.
New method targets relative risk heterogeneity in clinical trials.
problem Identifying treatment effects across subgroups with absolute risk differences.
method Modified causal forests using a novel node-splitting procedure based on relative risk.
result Relative risk causal forests can capture heterogeneity not detected by absolute risk methods.
Generative models learn from unlabeled videos via object segmentation and scene modeling.
problem Learning generative models from unlabelled videos.
method Decomposed into three subtasks: motion segmentation, background and foreground modeling, and scene sampling.
result Approach allows learning models that generalize beyond occlusions and represent scenes in a modular fashion.
This paper connects masked pre-training to Bayesian model selection.
problem Understanding the success of masked pre-training and its generalization.
method The paper shows masked pre-training corresponds to maximizing the marginal likelihood.
result Masked pre-training with a suitable scoring function maximizes the marginal likelihood.
A new DML method for continuous treatments uncovers causal mediation effects.
problem Estimating causal mediation effects with continuous treatments.
method Double machine learning (DML) algorithm using kernel-based doubly robust moment function.
result Asymptotic normality with nonparametric convergence rate for estimating mediated response curve.
CAT method learns causal structure of directed trees efficiently.
problem Learning causal structure from directed trees.
method Chu-Liu-Edmonds algorithm for fast and scalable structure learning.
result Consistency in asymptotic regime with vanishing identifiability gap for Gaussian errors.
Paper addresses identifiability and asymptotics of ODE systems from noisy data.
problem Identifying parameters and causal structure of linear ODE systems from discrete observations.
method Developed sufficient conditions for identifiability, proved consistency and asymptotic normality of NLS estimator, constructed confidence sets, and inferred causal structure.
result Consistent and asymptotically normal parameter estimator for linear ODE systems under mild conditions.
The paper investigates the effects of invalid action masking in policy gradient algorithms.
problem Invalid actions in policy gradient algorithms can lead to suboptimal performance.
method The paper provides theoretical justification and empirical demonstrations of the importance of invalid action masking.
result Invalid action masking is crucial as the number of invalid actions increases.
PLS-SVD struggles with missing data in multimodal datasets, showing a phase transition in performance.
problem Missing data in PLS-SVD for multimodal datasets.
method Replica-symmetric analysis of spiked rectangular random matrices with missing entries.
result PLS-SVD performance transitions from uninformative to informative singular vectors at a critical signal-to-noise threshold.
Optimizes pruning masks for neural networks using probabilistic fine-tuning and PAC-Bayes bounds.
problem Improving neural network performance through adaptive pruning of weights.
method Optimizes stochastic pruning masks by minimizing expected loss, considering data-adaptive regularization and feature alignment.
result Probabilistic fine-tuning leads to improved test error over baseline methods in neural networks.
Modulating masks improve lifelong reinforcement learning.
problem Catastrophic forgetting and task interference in lifelong reinforcement learning.
method Adapted modulating masks for deep lifelong reinforcement learning (LRL) with PPO and IMPALA agents.
result Superior performance in both discrete and continuous RL tasks compared to LRL baselines.
We consider the problem of selecting an optimal mask for an image manifold, i.e., choosing a subset of the pixels of the image that preserves the manifold's geometric structure present in the original data. Such masking implements a form of compressive sensing through emerging imaging sensor platforms for which the pow…
C-Learner improves stability of plug-in estimators for causal inference.
problem Limited overlap between treatment and control groups leads to unstable estimates.
method Constrained learning framework that achieves stability and asymptotic properties.
result Constrained learning produces stable estimates with desirable asymptotic properties.
MediEncoder learns nonlinear representations for causal mediation analysis.
problem High-dimensional noisy covariates and mediators in biomedical studies.
method Coupled encoder-decoder architecture with cross-factor network.
result Improves estimation accuracy in high-dimensional causal mediation analysis.
Matched Machine Learning combines machine learning and matching for causal inference.
problem Non-interpretable methods for causal inference.
method Combines machine learning and matching for interpretable causal inference.
result Performs as well as black-box machine learning methods and better than existing matching methods.
New method learns causal relationships in latent variables.
problem Disentangling causally related latent variables under supervision.
method Structural causal model (SCM) as prior for bidirectional generative model.
result Proposes DEAR method enabling causal controllable generation and disentanglement.
Causal trees struggle with accuracy in estimating treatment effects.
problem Estimating heterogeneous causal treatment effects using recursive decision trees.
method Adaptive recursive partitioning with and without sample splitting.
result Causal tree estimators can have uniform-norm errors decreasing more slowly than any power of the sample size.