In a previous analysis the problem of "zero-inflated" time data (caused by high frequency trading in the electronic order book) was handled by left-truncating the inter-arrival times. We demonstrated, using rigorous statistical methods, that the Weibull distribution describes the corresponding stochastic dynamics for a…
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48 results for “arrival distribution”
New model for multi-armed bandits with growing arms.
problem Balancing exploration and exploitation in a growing set of arms.
method Introduces Ballooning Multi-Armed Bandits (BL-MAB) and analyzes existing algorithms.
result Achieves sub-linear regret under certain conditions.
Study on queues with Hawkes arrivals, proving steady-state behavior and developing an efficient algorithm.
problem Analyzing the steady-state behavior of queues with Hawkes arrivals.
method Novel coupling techniques and exponential convergence results for workload and busy period processes.
result Exponential convergence of queueing processes to their stationary distribution.
In this paper we study the distributional properties of a vector of lifetimes in which each lifetime is modeled as the first arrival time between an idiosyncratic shock and a common systemic shock. Despite unlike the classical multidimensional Marshall-Olkin model here only a unique common shock affecting all the lifet…
Proposes a new simulator for complex arrival processes.
problem Modeling and simulating complex arrival processes with non-stationary and multi-dimensional rates.
method Integrates Monte Carlo and GANs to model a broad class of arrival processes.
result Consistent and efficient estimation of the simulator using Wasserstein distance.
Optimal fund deployment strategy under uncertain deal arrivals.
problem Deciding when to invest in deals with uncertain future arrivals.
method Formulated as CTMDP, solved via ADP with QMC sampling.
result Developed interpretable acceptance policy outperforming baseline.
History estimation in random recursive trees: Pointwise approach via iterated Jordan centralitiesmath.PR
Estimate arrival times in random recursive trees using iterated Jordan centralities.
problem Estimate arrival times in random recursive trees.
method Pointwise approach using iterated Jordan centralities.
result Tail bounds for relative estimation error.
We examine the novel problem of the estimation of transaction arrival processes in the intraday electricity markets. We model the inter-arrivals using multiple time-varying parametric densities based on the generalized F distribution estimated by maximum likelihood. We analyse both the in-sample characteristics and the…
An Empirical Study on Arrival Rates of Limit Orders and Order Cancellation Rates in Borsa Istanbulq-fin.MF
Order book dynamics play an important role in both execution time and price formation of orders in an exchange market. In this study, we aim to model the limit order arrival rates in the vicinity of the best bid and the best ask price levels. We use limit order book data for Garanti Bank, which is one of the most trade…
We investigate, focusing on the ruin probability, an adaptation of the Cramer-Lundberg model for the surplus process of an insurance company, in which, conditionally on their intensities, the two mixed Poisson processes governing the arrival times of the premiums and of the claims respectively, are independent. Such a …
Multivariate Arrival Times with Recurrent Neural Networks for Personalized Demand Forecastingstat.ML
Access to a large variety of data across a massive population has made it possible to predict customer purchase patterns and responses to marketing campaigns. In particular, accurate demand forecasts for popular products with frequent repeat purchases are essential since these products are one of the main drivers of pr…
Sequential experiments are often characterized by an exploration-exploitation tradeoff that is captured by the multi-armed bandit (MAB) framework. This framework has been studied and applied, typically when at each time period feedback is received only on the action that was selected at that period. However, in many pr…
Service system dynamics occur at the interplay between customer behaviour and a service provider's response. This kind of dynamics can effectively be modeled within the framework of queuing theory where customers' arrivals are described by point process models. However, these approaches are limited by parametric assump…
COCOA can learn new tasks without forgetting previously learned ones in a distributed setting.
problem Continual learning with tasks arriving sequentially.
method Distributed optimization with COCOA algorithm.
result COCOA can perform continual learning without forgetting.
The claim arrival process to an insurance company is modeled by a compound Poisson process whose intensity and/or jump size distribution changes at an unobservable time with a known distribution. It is in the insurance company's interest to detect the change time as soon as possible in order to re-evaluate a new fair v…
We propose a Conditional Density Filtering (C-DF) algorithm for efficient online Bayesian inference. C-DF adapts MCMC sampling to the online setting, sampling from approximations to conditional posterior distributions obtained by propagating surrogate conditional sufficient statistics (a function of data and parameter …
SMURF-THP improves Transformer Hawkes process models by providing uncertainty quantification.
problem Uncertainty quantification for Transformer Hawkes process predictions.
method Score matching for learning the score function of event arrival times.
result SMURF-THP outperforms likelihood-based methods in confidence calibration.
New model optimizes assortment and pricing with dynamic customer arrivals.
problem Suboptimal decisions in classical models due to fixed arrival rates.
method Poisson-MNL model with UCB algorithm for dynamic decisions.
result Efficient algorithm achieves near optimal cumulative revenue.
We study how information perturbations can destabilize two-sided matching markets. In our model, agents arrive on the market over two periods, while agents in the first period do not know the types of those arriving later. Agents already present in the market may match early or wait for the small group of new entrants.…
The paper addresses treatment recommendation problems by optimizing distributional characteristics.
problem Optimizing treatment recommendations based on distributional targets.
method Characterizes the problem's difficulty and proposes near-optimal policies.
result Characterizes the difficulty of the problem and proposes near-regret optimal policies.
We propose and study a simple stochastic model for the dynamics of a limit order book, in which arrivals of market order, limit orders and order cancellations are described in terms of a Markovian queueing system. Through its analytical tractability, the model allows to obtain analytical expressions for various quantit…
Optimal dividends for insurers with climate tipping point consideration.
problem Natural catastrophe claims and climate tipping point impact insurance profits.
method Two-dimensional stochastic control problems with Erlang distribution for tipping point timing, numerical approximation.
result Non-stationary climate tipping point can benefit shareholders by optimizing dividends.
New algorithm uses imperfect advice to improve online bipartite matching performance.
problem Online bipartite matching with imperfect advice.
method Designing an algorithm that uses external advice to improve performance between advice-free methods and optimal ratio.
result Algorithm achieves competitive ratio interpolating between advice-free methods and optimal ratio of 1.
We examine the relationship between trading volumes, number of transactions, and volatility using daily stock data of the Tokyo Stock Exchange. Following the mixture of distributions hypothesis, we use trading volumes and the number of transactions as proxy for the rate of information arrivals affecting stock volatilit…
Paper addresses uncertainty in model generalization under regime shifts.
problem Uncertainty in model generalization under regime changes.
method Proposes a framework to quantify and separate regime mismatch and sensitivity.
result Obtains exact decomposition and minimax lower bound for regime-aware models.
From orders to prices: A stochastic description of the limit order book to forecast intraday returnsq-fin.TR
Model predicts stock returns from order arrivals and cancellations.
problem Forecasting intraday stock returns using limit order book dynamics.
method Microscopic model based on operator algebra for order arrivals and cancellations, estimating arrival and cancellation rate distributions.
result The model explains 80% of returns in in-sample forecasts and 15% in out-of-sample forecasts.
This paper deals with dependence across marginally exponentially distributed arrival times, such as default times in financial modeling or inter-failure times in reliability theory. We explore the relationship between dependence and the possibility to sample final multivariate survival in a long time-interval as a sequ…
Algorithm solves job acceptance problem with random arrivals and values.
problem Decision-making under random job arrivals and values with limited acceptance.
method Proposes Non-Parametric Sequential Allocation (NPSA) algorithm.
result Expected reward converges to optimality as sample size increases.
Sequential screening and dynamic regret in multi-armed bandits with arriving arms
problem Sequential experimentation with expanding arm set
method UCB-AA with preliminary screening
result Regret bounds depend on arrival process
This research proves guarantees on sequence models' generalization to longer and novel sequences.
problem Generalization to longer sequences and novel token combinations in sequence models.
method Provable guarantees on length and compositional generalization for various sequence models.
result Limited capacity models achieve both length and compositional generalization with diverse training distributions.
We consider a stochastic model for the dynamics of the two-sided limit order book (LOB). Our model is flexible enough to allow for a dependence of the price dynamics on volumes. For the joint dynamics of best bid and ask prices and the standing buy and sell volume densities, we derive a functional limit theorem, which …
Proves Arnold-Thom conjecture for surfaces' arrival times.
problem Existence of limit tangents for gradient flow lines of surfaces.
method Gradient flow lines of mean curvature flows with neck or cylindrical singularities.
result Proves Arnold's conjecture for all mean convex mean curvature flows of surfaces.
New method infers and samples point processes from latent diffusion.
problem Modeling point processes with latent diffusion.
method Itô's excursion theory for inference and sampling.
result Proposes a new method to infer and sample point processes.
For a long investment time horizon, it is preferable to rebalance the portfolio weights at intermediate times. This necessitates a multi-period market model in which portfolio optimization is usually done through dynamic programming. However, this assumes a known distribution for the parameters of the financial time se…
Proposes a framework for semi-supervised continual learning from sequentially arriving data.
problem Learning from data with changing task distribution over time, especially in domains with a mix of labeled and unlabeled data.
method Meta-Consolidation for Continual Semi-Supervised Learning (MCSSL) framework with a hypernetwork and semi-supervised auxiliary classifier.
result Significant improvements in continual semi-supervised learning setting.
Simple connection between Harnack inequalities and concavity of arrival time functions.
problem Proving differential Harnack inequalities for various flows.
method Directly proving concavity properties of time-of-arrival functions for a class of flows using a concavity maximum principle.
result Short proof of Hamilton's and Andrews' differential Harnack inequalities.
We study a general problem of allocating limited resources to heterogeneous customers over time under model uncertainty. Each type of customer can be serviced using different actions, each of which stochastically consumes some combination of resources, and returns different rewards for the resources consumed. We consid…
This work analyzes IRM and ERM from sample complexity perspective, revealing different behaviors under various distribution shifts.
problem Choosing between IRM and ERM for OOD generalization.
method Sample complexity analysis comparing IRM and ERM under different data generation mechanisms.
result IRM is preferred over ERM for certain distribution shifts, leading to better OOD generalization.
Flexible device participation improves federated learning convergence.
problem Strict device participation limits federated learning reach.
method Analytical results and new aggregation scheme for flexible participation.
result Convergence improved with flexible device participation.
In many platforms, user arrivals exhibit a self-reinforcing behavior: future user arrivals are likely to have preferences similar to users who were satisfied in the past. In other words, arrivals exhibit positive externalities. We study multiarmed bandit (MAB) problems with positive externalities. We show that the self…
News might trigger jump arrivals in financial time series. The "bad" and "good" news seems to have distinct impact. In the research, a double exponential jump distribution is applied to model downward and upward jumps. Bayesian double exponential jump-diffusion model is proposed. Theorems stated in the paper enable est…
This paper builds a model of high-frequency equity returns by separately modeling the dynamics of trade-time returns and trade arrivals. Our main contributions are threefold. First, we characterize the distributional behavior of high-frequency asset returns both in ordinary clock time and in trade time. We show that wh…
Rescaled Asynchronous SGD: Optimal Distributed Optimization under Data and System Heterogeneitycs.LG
Rescaled ASGD optimizes distributed learning under heterogeneous data.
problem Vanilla ASGD biases towards a frequency-weighted average of local objectives.
method Rescale worker stepsizes by their computation times.
result Rescaled ASGD converges to the correct global objective in fixed-computation model.
We consider a classical risk process with arrival of claims following a non-stationary Hawkes process. We study the asymptotic regime when the premium rate and the baseline intensity of the claims arrival process are large, and claim size is small. The main goal of the article is to establish a diffusion approximation …
This paper tackles inventory control with general arrival dynamics and post-processing, improving profitability.
problem Inventory control with arbitrary arrival dynamics and post-processing constraints.
method Formulated as an exogenous decision process, incorporating deep generative models for arrivals, and applying supervised learning techniques.
result Improves profitability over production baselines and real-world A/B test data.
Modified EAT method improves Poisson gradient estimation.
problem Challenging differentiation through Poisson-distributed latent variables.
method Exponential Arrival Time (EAT) simulation with modifications and Gumbel-SoftMax relaxation.
result Modified EAT method provides unbiased first moment and reduced second-moment bias.
This paper describes a reference architecture for self-maintaining systems that can learn continually, as data arrives. In environments where data evolves, we need architectures that manage Machine Learning (ML) models in production, adapt to shifting data distributions, cope with outliers, retrain when necessary, and …
Ruin Probabilities for Risk Processes with Non-Stationary Arrivals and Subexponential Claimsq-fin.RM
In this paper, we obtain the finite-horizon and infinite-horizon ruin probability asymptotics for risk processes with claims of subexponential tails for non-stationary arrival processes that satisfy a large deviation principle. As a result, the arrival process can be dependent, non-stationary and non-renewal. We give t…