A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Quantum circuits predict volatility dynamics preserving asymmetry.
The speculation game is an agent-based toy model to investigate the dynamics of the financial market. Our model has achieved the reproduction of 10 of the well-known stylized facts for financial time series. However, there is also a divergence from the behavior of real market. The market price of the model tends to be …
A stochastic theory for the toppling activity in sandpile models is developed, based on a simple mean-field assumption about the toppling process. The theory describes the process as an anti-persistent Gaussian walk, where the diffusion coefficient is proportional to the activity. It is formulated as a generalization o…
This letter investigates the dynamic relationship between market efficiency, liquidity, and multifractality of Bitcoin. We find that before 2013 liquidity is low and the Hurst exponent is less than 0.5, indicating that the Bitcoin time series is anti-persistent. After 2013, as liquidity increased, the Hurst exponent ro…
We consider the Nordic electricity spot market from mid 1992 to the end of year 2000. This market is found to be well approximated by an anti-persistent self-affine (mean-reverting) walk. It is characterized by a Hurst exponent of over three orders of magnitude in time ranging from days to years. We argu…
The paper introduces a new method to detect rough volatility and market states using fractional derivatives.
We propose coalescent mechanism of economic grow because of redistribution of external resources. It leads to Zipf distribution of firms over their sizes, turning to stretched exponent because of size-dependent effects, and predicts exponential distribution of income between individuals. We also present new approach to…
In this paper we investigate predictability of electricity prices in the Canadian provinces of Alberta and Ontario, as well as in the US Mid-C market. Using scale-dependent detrended fluctuation analysis, spectral analysis, and the probability distribution analysis we show that the studied markets exhibit strongly anti…
Recent studies have found that the log-volatility of asset returns exhibit roughness. This study investigates roughness or the anti-persistence of Bitcoin volatility. Using the multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis, we obtain the generalized Hurst exponent of the log-volatility increments and find that the genera…
Study examines how Trump tariffs and COVID-19 affected financial market efficiency.
We measure the influence of different time-scales on the dynamics of financial market data. This is obtained by decomposing financial time series into simple oscillations associated with distinct time-scales. We propose two new time-varying measures: 1) an amplitude scaling exponent and 2) an entropy-like measure. We a…
Using Trades and Quotes data from the Paris stock market, we show that the random walk nature of traded prices results from a very delicate interplay between two opposite tendencies: long-range correlated market orders that lead to super-diffusion (or persistence), and mean reverting limit orders that lead to sub-diffu…
Scaling and multiscaling financial time series have been widely studied in the literature. The research on this topic is vast and still flourishing. One way to analyze the scaling properties of time series is through the estimation of their scaling exponents, that are recognized as being valuable measures to discrimina…
We analyze the market efficiency of 25 commodity futures across various groups -- metals, energies, softs, grains and other agricultural commodities. To do so, we utilize recently proposed Efficiency Index to find that the most efficient of all the analyzed commodities is heating oil, closely followed by WTI crude oil,…
The paper predicts Bitcoin volatility using order flow images.
Model captures neural activity related to behavior while separating internal computations.
Behavior modification improves prediction accuracy by nudging user behavior.
LISBET automates social behavior analysis using machine learning.
The paper introduces new metrics for evaluating generative models of behavior.
Mobile phones can record individual's daily behavioral data as a time-series. In this paper, we present an effective time-series segmentation technique that extracts optimal time segments of individual's similar behavioral characteristics utilizing their mobile phone data. One of the determinants of an individual's beh…
Study reveals LLM personality patterns but lacks behavioral consistency.
Herd behavior is an important economic phenomenon, especially in the context of the recent financial crises. In this paper, herd behavior in global stock markets is investigated with a focus on intercontinental comparison. Since most existing herd behavior indices do not provide a comparative method, we propose a new h…
Interactive news recommendation has been launched and attracted much attention recently. In this scenario, user's behavior evolves from single click behavior to multiple behaviors including like, comment, share etc. However, most of the existing methods still use single click behavior as the unique criterion of judging…
Study examines if LLMs' trading styles match real market behavior.
A test measures artificial agents' human-like behavior in video games.
Method uses DNNs to approximate functions with specific asymptotic behavior.
Study models Ricci flow on complex surfaces, showing mixed behavior.
Model predicts human food choices based on demographics.
We consider the problem of off-policy evaluation in Markov decision processes. Off-policy evaluation is the task of evaluating the expected return of one policy with data generated by a different, behavior policy. Importance sampling is a technique for off-policy evaluation that re-weights off-policy returns to account…
Paper develops a framework for learning interpretable representations of sequential decision behavior.
Study uses contrastive learning to analyze market order behavior.
Collective behavior of the complex socio-economic systems is heavily influenced by the herding, group, behavior of individuals. The importance of the herding behavior may enable the control of the collective behavior of the individuals. In this contribution we consider a simple agent-based herding model modified to inc…
Study asymptotic behaviors of solutions near singular boundaries for the Yamabe problem.
We propose Turing Learning, a novel system identification method for inferring the behavior of natural or artificial systems. Turing Learning simultaneously optimizes two populations of computer programs, one representing models of the behavior of the system under investigation, and the other representing classifiers. …
Study uses ML to analyze financial behavior in big data.
Revisits behavioral finance option pricing model to align with rational asset pricing theory.
KFAtt improves CTR prediction by modeling user behavior with Kalman filtering attention.
Study of urban lifestyles from mobility data of 1.2M people in 11 U.S. cities.
Study on manifolds with kinks and Gaussian kernel behavior.
Extends driving model to control agent behavior in simulations.
We introduce a new approach for comparing reinforcement learning policies, using Wasserstein distances (WDs) in a newly defined latent behavioral space. We show that by utilizing the dual formulation of the WD, we can learn score functions over policy behaviors that can in turn be used to lead policy optimization towar…
Most animals possess the ability to actuate a vast diversity of movements, ostensibly constrained only by morphology and physics. In practice, however, a frequent assumption in behavioral science is that most of an animal's activities can be described in terms of a small set of stereotyped motifs. Here we introduce a m…
Continuous collection of physiological data from wearable sensors enables temporal characterization of individual behaviors. Understanding the relation between an individual's behavioral patterns and psychological states can help identify strategies to improve quality of life. One challenge in analyzing physiological d…
The study examines collective behavior in banking sectors across mature and emerging markets.
The paper explains why estimating a history-dependent policy can reduce MSE in reinforcement learning.
Econometric framework integrates heavy-tailed distributions with behavioral probability weighting for better asset pricing.
We propose a novel approach to train a multi-modal policy from mixed demonstrations without their behavior labels. We develop a method to discover the latent factors of variation in the demonstrations. Specifically, our method is based on the variational autoencoder with a categorical latent variable. The encoder infer…
To detect the irregular trade behaviors in the stock market is the important problem in machine learning field. These irregular trade behaviors are obviously illegal. To detect these irregular trade behaviors in the stock market, data scientists normally employ the supervised learning techniques. In this paper, we empl…