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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,695 papers · 148 categories

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133265398530 · Jun 202019922001200920172026
48 results for ancestral sampling

Improved method for unbiased causal discovery in presence of unobserved confounding.

problem Unbiased data synthesis for causal discovery algorithms in the presence of unobserved confounding.
method Explicit block-hierarchical ancestral sampling to address limitations of implicit parameterization.
result Our approach fully covers the space of causal models, including those generated by implicit parameterization.

New algorithm groups variables by ancestral relationships to improve causal graph estimation accuracy.

problem Difficulty in estimating causal graphs with small sample sizes relative to variables.
method CAG algorithm groups variables based on ancestral relationships, reducing complexity and improving accuracy.
result CAG outperforms existing methods in estimation accuracy and computation time.

Machine learning models of music typically break up the task of composition into a chronological process, composing a piece of music in a single pass from beginning to end. On the contrary, human composers write music in a nonlinear fashion, scribbling motifs here and there, often revisiting choices previously made. In…

2019-03-18abs ↗pdf ↗

Ancestral graph models, introduced by Richardson and Spirtes (2002), generalize both Markov random fields and Bayesian networks to a class of graphs with a global Markov property that is closed under conditioning and marginalization. By design, ancestral graphs encode precisely the conditional independence structures t…

2012-07-11abs ↗pdf ↗

New method for ancestral inference in branching processes with random environments.

problem Determining ancestor distribution parameters in branching processes with random environments.
method Generalized method of moments for ancestral inference.
result Limiting distribution of ancestor and offspring estimators decouple and converge to independent Gaussian variables under certain conditions.

New algorithm identifies causal relationships from graphs, even with selection bias.

problem Identifying causal relationships from graphs with selection bias.
method Developed a measure-theoretic version of Pearl's causal calculus and a sound, complete identification algorithm.
result General measure-theoretic version of causal calculus allows for identification of causal relationships under selection bias.

In this paper, we study classes of graphs with three types of edges that capture the modified independence structure of a directed acyclic graph (DAG) after marginalisation over unobserved variables and conditioning on selection variables using the mm-separation criterion. These include MC, summary, and ancestral grap…

2011-10-19abs ↗pdf ↗

AGFN improves causal discovery by integrating expert feedback and handling latent confounding.

problem Inaccurate causal discovery due to unreliable expert knowledge and latent confounding.
method Ancestral GFlowNet (AGFN) is a reinforcement learning algorithm that iteratively refines a policy based on noisy expert feedback to infer ancestral graphs.
result AGFN converges to the true ancestral graph given accurate expert responses and outperforms baselines in structural Hamming distance and Bayesian Information Criterion.

A new algorithm learns MAGs from data more efficiently using entropy.

problem Learning MAGs from data is unstable and computationally expensive.
method Uses entropy estimation and refined Markov property to score MAGs.
result Algorithm is polynomial in number of nodes and outperforms existing methods.

We introduce a deep, generative autoencoder capable of learning hierarchies of distributed representations from data. Successive deep stochastic hidden layers are equipped with autoregressive connections, which enable the model to be sampled from quickly and exactly via ancestral sampling. We derive an efficient approx…

2013-10-31abs ↗pdf ↗

CCHM algorithm learns BN structure with latent variables, improving causal effect measurement.

problem Latent variables cause spurious relationships in BN structure learning.
method Hybrid approach combining constraint-based and score-based learning, incorporating do-calculus.
result CCHM outperforms state-of-the-art in reconstructing true BN structure.

The paper develops methods to bound causal effects using Partial Ancestral Graphs.

problem Bounding causal effects from observational data when true causal diagrams are unknown.
method Proposes a method using Partial Ancestral Graphs to derive bounds on causal effects from observational data.
result Demonstrates the effectiveness of the method with synthetic and real data examples.

Generative AI can solve in-context learning problems using a martingale perspective.

problem Estimating when a conditional generative model can solve an in-context learning problem.
method Bayesian interpretation, ancestral sampling, generative predictive p-value.
result Developed a method to assess the suitability of CGMs for ICL problems using generative predictive p-values.

Method infers parameters in complex diffusion processes.

problem Parameter inference in high-dimensional, non-linear diffusion processes.
method Differentiable score matching to approximate diffusion bridges, used in an importance sampler.
result Numerically stable framework for parameter inference and diffusion mean estimation.

ASCEND discovers causal relationships in multi-omics data by leveraging known hierarchical structure.

problem Causal inference in high-dimensional multi-omics data, especially when ignoring the hierarchical structure.
method Two-tiered divide-and-conquer strategy with ancestral conditioning sets.
result Achieves polynomial-time complexity and accurately recovers ancestral relationships.

Proposes a method to identify causal relationships using background knowledge.

problem Identifying causal relationships in the presence of background knowledge.
method Learning local structure using all types of causal background knowledge (direct, non-ancestral, ancestral). Criteria for identifying causal relationships based on local structure.
result Effective and efficient method for local structure learning and causal relationship identification.

We present the Parallel, Forward-Backward with Pruning (PFBP) algorithm for feature selection (FS) in Big Data settings (high dimensionality and/or sample size). To tackle the challenges of Big Data FS PFBP partitions the data matrix both in terms of rows (samples, training examples) as well as columns (features). By e…

2017-08-23abs ↗pdf ↗

In recent years Variation Autoencoders have become one of the most popular unsupervised learning of complicated distributions.Variational Autoencoder (VAE) provides more efficient reconstructive performance over a traditional autoencoder. Variational auto enocders make better approximaiton than MCMC. The VAE defines a …

2017-07-11abs ↗pdf ↗

Neural Autoregressive Distribution Estimators (NADEs) have recently been shown as successful alternatives for modeling high dimensional multimodal distributions. One issue associated with NADEs is that they rely on a particular order of factorization for P(x)P(\mathbf{x}). This issue has been recently addressed by a vari…

2014-09-02abs ↗pdf ↗

I-SPEC learns stable models from data without full causal knowledge.

problem Learning models that generalize well across shifts in environment.
method End-to-end framework using partial ancestral graph to learn stable interventional distribution.
result I-SPEC can learn robust models without full causal knowledge.

Improved hierarchical discrete VAEs for better stability and performance.

problem Training stable and efficient hierarchical discrete VAEs with numerous latent variables.
method Introducing Relaxed-Responsibility Vector-Quantisation to parameterise discrete latent variables in a hierarchical structure.
result Achieved state-of-the-art bits-per-dim results for various standard datasets.

Kernel measures similarity of nonlinear causal structures in heterogeneous populations.

problem Learning causal structure in populations with diverse underlying structures.
method Distance covariance-based kernel for measuring similarity of causal structures.
result Kernel enables clustering of homogeneous subpopulations for causal structure learning.

This paper studies the cooperative training of two generative models for image modeling and synthesis. Both models are parametrized by convolutional neural networks (ConvNets). The first model is a deep energy-based model, whose energy function is defined by a bottom-up ConvNet, which maps the observed image to the ene…

2016-09-29abs ↗pdf ↗

We would like to learn latent representations that are low-dimensional and highly interpretable. A model that has these characteristics is the Gaussian Process Latent Variable Model. The benefits and negative of the GP-LVM are complementary to the Variational Autoencoder, the former provides interpretable low-dimension…

2017-12-18abs ↗pdf ↗

New method for causal discovery using peeling algorithms for various data types.

problem Challenges in causal discovery due to unmeasured confounders.
method Two peeling algorithms (bottom-up and top-down) for causal discovery with generalized structural equation models.
result Valid discovery of causal relationships and parent-child effects in diverse data types.

DualVDT improves time-series forecasting with a novel dual reparametrized structure.

problem Time-series forecasting with improved performance and analytical rigor.
method Dual reparametrized variational mechanisms on VAE, latent score based generative model, reverse time stochastic differential equation, variational ancestral sampling, KL divergence reduction.
result Advanced performance in time-series forecasting with reduced KL divergence.

Recently, it has been shown that the Jones polynomial, in [LS19], and the Alexander polynomial, in [NT18], of rational knots can be obtained by specializing FF-polynomials of cluster variables. At the core of both results are continued fractions, which parameterize rational knots and are used to obtain cluster variabl…

2019-10-22abs ↗pdf ↗

A new sampler tackles critical phenomena by leveraging scale invariance.

problem Scale invariance at criticality causes sampling difficulties in Monte Carlo simulations.
method RiGCS combines MLMC-HB with generative models to improve sampling efficiency.
result RiGCS achieves significantly higher effective sample size than existing methods.

Forward-backward selection is one of the most basic and commonly-used feature selection algorithms available. It is also general and conceptually applicable to many different types of data. In this paper, we propose a heuristic that significantly improves its running time, while preserving predictive accuracy. The idea…

2017-05-30abs ↗pdf ↗

Paper characterizes and represents pairwise causal background knowledge for improved causal inference.

problem Improving causal inference by handling pairwise causal constraints.
method Graphical characterization, direct causal clause (DCC), unified representation, MPDAG, polynomial-time algorithms.
result Pairwise causal background knowledge uniquely decomposes into MPDAG and DCCs, improving causal effect identification.

Algorithm learns Bayesian network structure efficiently from data.

problem Learning directed acyclic graphical models from observational data.
method Local Markov boundary search procedure to recursively construct ancestral sets.
result Simple greedy search algorithm learns Markov boundary of each node efficiently.

In this paper, we unify the Markov theory of a variety of different types of graphs used in graphical Markov models by introducing the class of loopless mixed graphs, and show that all independence models induced by mm-separation on such graphs are compositional graphoids. We focus in particular on the subclass of rib…

2011-09-27abs ↗pdf ↗

Novel graphical models for time series with latent confounders improve causal inference.

problem Causal relationships and independencies in multivariate time series with unobserved confounders.
method Introduced a novel class of graphical models and characterized their properties.
result Novel graphs provide stronger causal inferences without additional assumptions.

In this paper we discuss four problems regarding Markov equivalences for subclasses of loopless mixed graphs. We classify these four problems as finding conditions for internal Markov equivalence, which is Markov equivalence within a subclass, for external Markov equivalence, which is Markov equivalence between subclas…

2011-10-20abs ↗pdf ↗