A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
We found that factors decay over time, with momentum fitting best.
Alpha-R1 uses LLMs to reason about economic factors and news for better alpha screening.
Optimizes trading strategy considering alpha decay and transaction costs.
Paper examines costs of using wrong price impact models in trading.
AI-driven investment strategies self-defeat at scale due to signal crowding and erosion.
In the online multiple testing problem, p-values corresponding to different null hypotheses are observed one by one, and the decision of whether or not to reject the current hypothesis must be made immediately, after which the next p-value is observed. Alpha-investing algorithms to control the false discovery rate (FDR…
Financial time series typically exhibit strong fluctuations that cannot be described by a Gaussian distribution. In recent empirical studies of stock market indices it was examined whether the distribution P(r) of returns r(tau) after some time tau can be described by a (truncated) Levy-stable distribution L_{alpha}(r)…
T-KAN improves HFT LOB forecasting with learnable splines.
Optimal trading strategy derived for nonlinear price impact models.
Recent empirical studies have demonstrated long-memory in the signs of orders to buy or sell in financial markets [2, 19]. We show how this can be caused by delays in market clearing. Under the common practice of order splitting, large orders are broken up into pieces and executed incrementally. If the size of such lar…
Framework mitigates overfitting in quantitative trading strategies.
Alpha2 discovers logical formulaic alphas using deep reinforcement learning.
Alpha-GPT mines new trading signals with human-AI interaction.
We consider estimating a piecewise-constant image, or a gradient-sparse signal on a general graph, from noisy linear measurements. We propose and study an iterative algorithm to minimize a penalized least-squares objective, with a penalty given by the "l_0-norm" of the signal's discrete graph gradient. The method proce…
We give an explicit algorithm and source code for extracting expected returns for stocks from expected returns for alphas. Our algorithm altogether bypasses combining alphas with weights into "alpha combos". Simply put, we have developed a new method for trading alphas which does not involve combining them. This yields…
Paper proposes a new framework to mine synergistic formulaic alphas for better stock trend forecasting.
We propose a framework for constructing factor models for alpha streams. Our motivation is threefold. 1) When the number of alphas is large, the sample covariance matrix is singular. 2) Its out-of-sample stability is challenging. 3) Optimization of investment allocation into alpha streams can be tractable for a factor …
We compute the analytic expression of the probability distributions F{FTSE100,+} and F{FTSE100,-} of the normalized positive and negative FTSE100 (UK) index daily returns r(t). Furthermore, we define the alpha re-scaled FTSE100 daily index positive returns r(t)^alpha and negative returns (-r(t))^alpha that we call, aft…
FinBERT model identifies key speakers in earnings calls, boosting stock returns.
In terms of the stock exchange returns, we compute the analytic expression of the probability distributions F{DAX,+} and F{DAX,-} of the normalized positive and negative DAX (Germany) index daily returns r(t). Furthermore, we define the alpha re-scaled DAX daily index positive returns r(t)^alpha and negative returns (-…
Alpha-GPT 2.0 integrates human insights into AI-driven investment research.
It is well known that combining multiple hedge fund alpha streams yields diversification benefits to the resultant portfolio. Additionally, crossing trades between different alpha streams reduces transaction costs. As the number of alpha streams increases, the relative turnover of the portfolio decreases as more trades…
Writing the article-Time independent pricing of options in range bound markets; the question in the title came naturally to my mind. It is stated, in the above article, that in certain market conditions the stock price is subjected to an equation that exactly matches a time independent Schrodinger equation. The time in…
RiskMiner discovers formulaic alphas using MCTS for better performance.
Internal crossing of trades between multiple alpha streams results in portfolio turnover reduction. Turnover reduction can be modeled using the correlation structure of the alpha streams. As more and more alphas are added, generally turnover reduces. In this note we use a factor model approach to address the question o…
Enhances genetic programming for stock alpha discovery with warm start and structural constraints.
We give an explicit algorithm and source code for combining alpha streams via bounded regression. In practical applications typically there is insufficient history to compute a sample covariance matrix (SCM) for a large number of alphas. To compute alpha allocation weights, one then resorts to (weighted) regression ove…
Unified convergence analysis of alpha-SVRG under strong convexity.
AlphaEval evaluates alpha mining models efficiently and comprehensively.
New methods for tuning alpha in Gibbs posteriors improve speed and accuracy.
An explicit expression is obtained for the sectional curvature in the plane spanned by two stationary flows, cos(k, x) and cos(l, x). It is shown that for certain values of the wave vectors k and l the curvature becomes positive for alpha > alpha_0, where 0 < alpha_0 < 1 is of the order 1/k. This suggests that the flow…
The weak variance-alpha-gamma process is a multivariate Lévy process constructed by weakly subordinating Brownian motion, possibly with correlated components with an alpha-gamma subordinator. It generalises the variance-alpha-gamma process of Semeraro constructed by traditional subordination. We compare three calibrati…
Researchers calculate alpha invariant for certain complex projective spaces.
We give a simple explicit formula for turnover reduction when a large number of alphas are traded on the same execution platform and trades are crossed internally. We model turnover reduction via alpha correlations. Then, for a large number of alphas, turnover reduction is related to the largest eigenvalue and the corr…
AlphaSAGE mines diverse alphas via GFlowNets, overcoming RL issues.
We give an explicit algorithm and source code for extracting equity risk factors from dead (a.k.a. "flatlined" or "hockey-stick") alphas and using them to improve performance characteristics of good (tradable) alphas. In a nutshell, we use dead alphas to extract directions in the space of stock returns along which ther…
PPO optimizes LLM-generated alpha weights for better trading performance.
The paper presents methods to improve uncertainty calibration in Bayesian Neural Networks.
Measures strategy durability through minimum regime performance, revealing trade-offs between efficiency and resilience.
AlphaForge mines and dynamically combines alpha factors for better investment performance.
AutoAlpha efficiently discovers effective alpha factors for quantitative investment.
In these notes we discuss investment allocation to multiple alpha streams traded on the same execution platform, including when trades are crossed internally resulting in turnover reduction. We discuss approaches to alpha weight optimization where one maximizes P&L subject to bounds on volatility (or Sharpe ratio). The…
Mannheim curves are defined for immersed curves in 3-dimensional sphere S^3 . The definition is given by considering the geodesics of S^3. First, two special geodesics, called principal normal geodesic and binormal geodesic, of S^3 are defined by using Frenet vectors of a curve immersed in S^3. Later, the curve alpha i…
AlphaCFG discovers alpha factors using grammar-guided search.
We present explicit formulas - that are also computer code - for 101 real-life quantitative trading alphas. Their average holding period approximately ranges 0.6-6.4 days. The average pair-wise correlation of these alphas is low, 15.9%. The returns are strongly correlated with volatility, but have no significant depend…
The paper evaluates biased methods for alpha-divergence minimization.
Given a smooth, closed, oriented 4-manifold X and alpha in H_2(X,Z) such that alpha.alpha > 0, a closed 2-form w is constructed, Poincare dual to alpha, which is symplectic on the complement of a finite set of unknotted circles. The number of circles, counted with sign, is given by d = (c_1(s)^2 -3sigma(X) -2chi(X))/4,…
Unbiased methods for alpha-divergence minimization struggle in high dimensions.