Bayesian optimisation is a sample-efficient search methodology that holds great promise for accelerating drug and materials discovery programs. A frequently-overlooked modelling consideration in Bayesian optimisation strategies however, is the representation of heteroscedastic aleatoric uncertainty. In many practical a…
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48 results for “aleatoric noise”
New method improves estimation of neural network aleatoric uncertainty.
problem Existing methods overestimate aleatoric uncertainty in neural networks.
method Proposes a new de-noising method to estimate data uncertainty more accurately.
result Demonstrates better approximation of actual data uncertainty.
CLAPS improves conformal regression by adaptively scaling interval widths based on last-layer Laplace uncertainty.
problem Lack of adaptive interval width scaling in conformal regression for heterogeneous inputs.
method CLAPS uses heteroscedastic last-layer Laplace uncertainty to adaptively scale interval widths, combining aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties.
result CLAPS provides competitive interval efficiency with nominal-level coverage, reducing to aleatoric scaling as epistemic uncertainty decreases.
Bayesian classification improves with explicit aleatoric uncertainty.
problem Lack of aleatoric uncertainty representation in Bayesian classification.
method Explicitly account for aleatoric uncertainty using a Dirichlet observation model.
result Explicit aleatoric uncertainty improves performance of Bayesian neural networks.
Decoupled PFNs: Identifiable Epistemic-Aleatoric Decomposition via Structured Synthetic Priorsstat.ML
Decoupled PFNs improve sequential decision-making by separating epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties.
problem Sequential decision-making requires distinguishing between epistemic uncertainty about latent signals and irreducible aleatoric observation noise.
method Developed a decoupled PFN architecture that uses query-level labels to train separate heads for latent signal and aleatoric noise.
result Empirically, decoupled PFNs mitigate the failure mode of total-variance exploration in noisy and heteroscedastic settings.
Extends neural network training framework to handle noise and uncertainty.
problem Handling noise and uncertainty in neural network training.
method Integrates non-zero aleatoric noise and derives posterior covariance for epistemic uncertainty.
result Derives an estimator for posterior covariance, providing a handle on epistemic uncertainty.
CLEAR calibrates both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties for better predictive intervals.
problem Balanced uncertainty quantification for reliable predictive modeling.
method CLEAR uses two parameters, γ1 and γ2, to combine aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties.
result Clear achieves significant improvements in interval width and coverage.
New method tackles label noise on imbalanced datasets by considering class-specific uncertainty.
problem Label noise and class imbalance in imbalanced datasets.
method Epistemic and aleatoric uncertainty-aware class-specific noise modeling.
result Proposed ULC framework improves performance on imbalanced datasets.
Cooperative model disentangles data uncertainties.
problem Disentangling aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties in real-world data.
method Cooperatively trains a variance estimation network with a Bayesian neural network.
result Improves mean estimation and disentangles uncertainties.
Improves image quality in generative models by estimating pixel-wise aleatoric uncertainty.
problem Lack of quantitative assessment of image quality in diffusion models.
method Estimate pixel-wise aleatoric uncertainty during sampling phase using a perturbation scheme designed for diffusion models.
result Uncertainty-guided sampling leads to better sample generation quality as shown by FID scores.
Proposes linking energy and force uncertainty in deep learning potentials.
problem Uncertainty in predicted energies and forces in machine learning models.
method Introduces a spatially correlated noise process to link energy and force uncertainty.
result Demonstrates the approach on molecular datasets, linking energy and force uncertainties.
Improved image classification accuracy with a probabilistic model of label noise.
problem Noisy labels in large-scale image classification datasets.
method A probabilistic model using a multivariate Normal distribution on the final hidden layer of a neural network, capturing input-dependent label noise.
result Significantly improved accuracy on various datasets compared to standard methods.
JUCAL jointly calibrates aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties in classifier ensembles.
problem Misrepresentation of predictive uncertainty due to unbalanced aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties.
method Joint Uncertainty Calibration (JUCAL) that jointly calibrates two constants to weight and scale uncertainties.
result Significantly outperforms state-of-the-art calibration methods across various text classification tasks.
A General Framework for quantifying Aleatoric and Epistemic uncertainty in Graph Neural Networkscs.LG
Unified Bayesian framework for quantifying GNN uncertainty.
problem Quantifying uncertainty in GNN predictions due to modeling errors and measurement uncertainty.
method Unified Bayesian framework with aleatoric uncertainty from probabilistic links and feature noise, and epistemic uncertainty from model parameter distribution. Uses Assumed Density Filtering for aleatoric uncertainty and Monte Carlo dropout for model parameter uncertainty.
result Bayesian model performs similarly to frequentist model and provides additional uncertainty information.
New priors improve Bayesian neural networks without cooling.
problem Bayesian neural networks underfit on clean datasets.
method Introduce DirClip and confidence priors to replace cooling.
result DirClip and confidence priors outperform cold posterior.
BODE enhances deep neural network predictions and uncertainty quantification in safety modeling.
problem Uncertainty in deep neural network predictions for safety-critical applications.
method Bayesian optimization combined with deep ensembles (BODE).
result BODE reduces total uncertainty by over 30% compared to a manually tuned baseline ensemble.
Decomposition of Uncertainty in Bayesian Deep Learning for Efficient and Risk-sensitive Learningstat.ML
Bayesian neural networks with latent variables are scalable and flexible probabilistic models: They account for uncertainty in the estimation of the network weights and, by making use of latent variables, can capture complex noise patterns in the data. We show how to extract and decompose uncertainty into epistemic and…
Multivariate Bayesian Last Layer for Regression with Uncertainty Quantification and Decompositionstat.ML
Bayesian neural network models improve uncertainty quantification in multivariate regression.
problem Uncertainty quantification in multivariate regression models with heteroscedastic noise.
method Proposes Bayesian Last Layer neural network models and EM algorithms for parameter learning.
result Capable of disentangling aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty.
The study quantifies and compares aleatoric and epistemic discrimination in ML models.
problem Sources of discrimination in ML models and their impact on performance.
method Quantifying aleatoric and epistemic discrimination using statistical experiments and model accuracy.
result State-of-the-art fairness interventions are effective at removing epistemic discrimination but not aleatoric discrimination in datasets with missing values.
Bayesian method detects outliers and uncertain points in data.
problem Detecting outliers and uncertain points in data using Bayesian methods.
method Generative model of data curation for aleatoric uncertainty, combining with epistemic uncertainty and outlier exposure.
result Principled Bayesian approach outperforms methods using aleatoric or epistemic uncertainty alone.
Diffusion Epistemic Uncertainty with Asymmetric Learning for Diffusion-Generated Image Detectioncs.CV
DEUA detects diffusion-generated images by accounting for different types of uncertainty.
problem Detecting generated images with varying aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty.
method DEUA framework using Laplace approximation for DEU estimation and asymmetric loss function.
result DEUA achieves state-of-the-art performance on large-scale benchmarks.
New method uses generative models to estimate aleatoric uncertainty without strict data restrictions.
problem Estimating aleatoric uncertainty with limited data distribution or dimensionality.
method Conditional generative models and two metrics for measuring distributional discrepancies.
result Metrics accurately measure conditional distributional discrepancies and train competitive models.
Proposes a new method for robust uncertainty quantification in regression tasks.
problem Robust uncertainty estimation for deep neural networks in regression tasks.
method Generalized Auxiliary Uncertainty Estimator (AuxUE) scheme, considering both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties.
result DIDO method provides robust uncertainty estimates in noisy inputs, scalable to image-level and pixel-wise tasks.
Novel method to quantify aleatoric uncertainty of treatment effects from observational data.
problem Understanding randomness in treatment effects for medical treatments.
method Partial identification and Neyman-orthogonality to quantify aleatoric uncertainty.
result Developed a novel orthogonal learner (AU-learner) for quantifying aleatoric uncertainty.
Bayesian inference improves neural network predictions by separating aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties.
problem Improving prediction accuracy of neural networks by quantifying and separating uncertainties.
method Approximated posterior distributions using deep ensembles for various neural network architectures.
result Prediction accuracy depends on both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties, not just marginalized uncertainty.
We propose orthogonality as a necessary condition for disentangling aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty.
problem Jointly estimating aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty is problematic and non-trivial.
method We propose orthogonality as a necessary condition for disentanglement and construct UDE to measure orthogonality and consistency.
result Orthogonality and consistency are necessary and sufficient criteria for disentanglement.
New fairness measures account for prediction uncertainties to detect bias.
problem Fairness of ML models is not well-defined and measures are limited.
method Introduce new fairness measures based on aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties.
result Uncertainty-based measures reveal bias not captured by existing measures.
Deep learning techniques have been shown to be extremely effective for various classification and regression problems, but quantifying the uncertainty of their predictions and separating them into the epistemic and aleatoric fractions is still considered challenging. In oil and gas exploration projects, tools consistin…
SAMPLR optimizes for ground truth in aleatoric parameters to avoid curriculum-induced covariate shift.
problem Curriculum learning shifts training distribution, leading to suboptimal policies in aleatoric settings.
method SAMPLR optimizes ground-truth utility function, avoiding curriculum-induced covariate shift.
result SAMPLR preserves optimality under ground-truth distribution, promoting robustness across various environments.
The paper introduces new measures for quantifying uncertainty in machine learning.
problem Uncertainty representation and quantification in machine learning.
method Proper scoring rules for aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty quantification.
result Established a natural bridge between credal set and second-order distribution representations of uncertainty.
New method distinguishes data noise from GP uncertainty.
problem Uncertainty in kernel regression with non-Gaussian noise.
method Wiener chaos expansions for non-Gaussian noise.
result Can distinguish aleatoric from epistemic uncertainty.
Proposes a new method for uncertainty estimation in neural networks.
problem Uncertainty quantification in neural networks for high-risk applications.
method Intuitive framework based on signal-to-noise ratio and variance-gated measure.
result Demonstrates a collapse in diversity of committee machines.
Uncertainty modeling for dynamical systems
problem Uncertainty modeling for dynamical systems
method Discussing sources of uncertainty, their nature, and task-specific objectives
result Identifying the types of uncertainty needed for dynamical systems
Proposes SDE framework for uncertainty quantification in graph neural networks.
problem Lack of uncertainty quantification in graph neural networks.
method Introduces Latent Graph Neural Stochastic Differential Equations (LGNSDE) with Bayesian prior-posterior mechanism and Brownian motion.
result LGNSDEs provide theoretically sensible guarantees for uncertainty estimates and are robust to perturbations.
DER uses neural nets to better handle uncertainty in machine learning.
problem Need for principled uncertainty reasoning in safety-critical domains.
method Uncertainty-aware regression-based neural networks (NNs) with evidential distributions.
result DER shows promise over traditional methods but is a heuristic.
PNNs model aleatoric uncertainty in scientific machine learning with high accuracy.
problem Aleatoric uncertainty in scientific systems with unequal variance.
method Developed a probabilistic distance metric to optimize PNN architecture and used it in material science applications.
result PNNs yield remarkably accurate output mean estimates and high correlation in predicted intervals.
New method extracts aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties from regression-based neural networks.
problem Need for principled uncertainty reasoning in machine learning systems.
method Learning evidential distributions for aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties.
result Allows for the simultaneous extraction of both uncertainties without sampling or out-of-distribution data.
The paper extends calibration to sets of probabilistic classifiers, finding many ensembles are poorly calibrated.
problem Evaluating the validity of epistemic uncertainty in sets of probabilistic classifiers.
method Proposed a novel nonparametric calibration test for sets of probabilistic classifiers.
result Ensembles of deep neural networks are often not well calibrated.
A new method decomposes subjective risk into epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties.
problem Uncertainty quantification in modeling decisions.
method Subjective risk decomposition using strictly proper loss.
result Recovery of classic uncertainty measures and new learning-theoretic connections.
Cold posteriors improve Bayesian neural networks by reducing overestimation of aleatoric uncertainty.
problem Overestimation of aleatoric uncertainty in Bayesian neural networks.
method Tuning the temperature of the posterior on a validation set.
result Reducing temperature leads to better reflection of true prior beliefs.
Probabilistic Contrastive Learning Recovers the Correct Aleatoric Uncertainty of Ambiguous Inputscs.LG
Contrastive learning recovers latent distributions for ambiguous inputs, including aleatoric uncertainty.
problem Real-world observations often have inherent ambiguities, making the true posterior probabilistic with heteroscedastic uncertainty.
method Extended InfoNCE objective and encoders to predict latent distributions, proving they recover the correct posteriors, including aleatoric uncertainty.
result Contrastive learning encoders can recover the correct posteriors of data-generating processes, including aleatoric uncertainty, up to a rotation of the latent space.
Aleatoric uncertainty is an intrinsic property of ill-posed inverse and imaging problems. Its quantification is vital for assessing the reliability of relevant point estimates. In this paper, we propose an efficient framework for quantifying aleatoric uncertainty for deep residual learning and showcase its significant …
Due to the steadily increasing relevance of machine learning for practical applications, many of which are coming with safety requirements, the notion of uncertainty has received increasing attention in machine learning research in the last couple of years. In particular, the idea of distinguishing between two importan…
Framework disentangles deep feature uncertainty for efficient inference.
problem Inference-time uncertainty estimation for reliable decision-making.
method Uncertainty-Guided Inference-Time Selection framework.
result Significantly tighter prediction intervals and 60% compute reduction.
Proposes a simple method to explain aleatoric uncertainty in neural networks.
problem Lack of transparent explanations for uncertainty estimates in AI models.
method Adapting a neural network with Gaussian output to estimate predictive variance and applying explainers to the variance output.
result The proposed method explains uncertainty more reliably than complex approaches and outperforms them in most settings.
The paper critiques existing uncertainty concepts and proposes a new decision-theoretic approach.
problem Incoherence in existing discussions of aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty.
method Decision-theoretic perspective that relates uncertainty, predictive performance, and statistical dispersion.
result Popular information-theoretic quantities can be poor estimators but still useful for guiding data acquisition.
Isotonic regression binning affects calibration statistics of machine learning models.
problem Isotonic regression binning introduces aleatoric uncertainty in calibration statistics.
method Calibration error statistics are recalibrated using isotonic regression, which produces stratified uncertainties.
result Stratified uncertainties lead to significant differences in bin-based calibration statistics.
Characterizing Sources of Uncertainty to Proxy Calibration and Disambiguate Annotator and Data Biascs.LG
Supporting model interpretability for complex phenomena where annotators can legitimately disagree, such as emotion recognition, is a challenging machine learning task. In this work, we show that explicitly quantifying the uncertainty in such settings has interpretability benefits. We use a simple modification of a cla…