A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
A method learns common bias for multiple low-variance tasks without hyper-parameter tuning.
Stabilizes online learning by using weighted reservoir sampling.
CSER improves SGD efficiency by resetting errors and partial synchronization.
Self-training with noisy student-teacher boosts keyword spotting accuracy.
Stochastic methods with coordinate-wise adaptive stepsize (such as RMSprop and Adam) have been widely used in training deep neural networks. Despite their fast convergence, they can generalize worse than stochastic gradient descent. In this paper, by revisiting the design of Adagrad, we propose to split the network par…
The diagonal effect of orders is well documented in different markets, which states that orders are more likely to be followed by orders of the same aggressiveness and implies the presence of short-term correlations in order flows. Based on the order flow data of 43 Chinese stocks, we investigate if there are long-rang…
The last financial and economic crisis demonstrated the dysfunctional long-term effects of aggressive behaviour in financial markets. Yet, evolutionary game theory predicts that under the condition of strategic dependence a certain degree of aggressive behaviour remains within a given population of agents. However, as …
New method tackles dynamic data labeling issues with limited labels.
Characterizing a patient's progression through stages of sepsis is critical for enabling risk stratification and adaptive, personalized treatment. However, commonly used sepsis diagnostic criteria fail to account for significant underlying heterogeneity, both between patients as well as over time in a single patient. W…
Price changes are induced by aggressive market orders in stock market. We introduce a bivariate marked Hawkes process to model aggressive market order arrivals at the microstructural level. The order arrival intensity is marked by an exogenous part and two endogenous processes reflecting the self-excitation and cross-e…
Algorithm detects concept drift and adapts models in streaming data.
A TTA framework improves forecasting accuracy in non-stationary time series.
Stochastic gradient descent (\textsc{Sgd}) methods are the most powerful optimization tools in training machine learning and deep learning models. Moreover, acceleration (a.k.a. momentum) methods and diagonal scaling (a.k.a. adaptive gradient) methods are the two main techniques to improve the slow convergence of \text…
For more than a decade Vytelingum's Adaptive-Aggressive (AA) algorithm has been recognized as the best-performing automated auction-market trading-agent strategy currently known in the AI/Agents literature; in this paper, we demonstrate that it is in fact routinely outperformed by another algorithm when exhaustively te…
Alpha-trimming prunes trees in random forests to improve predictive performance.
Addressing the ongoing examination of high-frequency trading practices in financial markets, we report the results of an extensive empirical study estimating the maximum possible profitability of the most aggressive such practices, and arrive at figures that are surprisingly modest. By "aggressive" we mean any trading …
We provide a new online learning algorithm which utilizes online passive-aggressive learning (PA) and total-error-rate minimization (TER) for binary classification. The PA learning establishes not only large margin training but also the capacity to handle non-separable data. The TER learning on the other hand minimizes…
Combines RL and BF for risk-managed portfolio optimization.
We propose a general framework to describe the impact of different events in the order book, that generalizes previous work on the impact of market orders. Two different modeling routes can be considered, which are equivalent when only market orders are taken into account. One model posits that each event type has a te…
Paper uses stats to predict treatment choice based on illness probability.
A survey of existing methods for stopping active learning (AL) reveals the needs for methods that are: more widely applicable; more aggressive in saving annotations; and more stable across changing datasets. A new method for stopping AL based on stabilizing predictions is presented that addresses these needs. Furthermo…
Machine and reinforcement learning (RL) are increasingly being applied to plan and control the behavior of autonomous systems interacting with the physical world. Examples include self-driving vehicles, distributed sensor networks, and agile robots. However, when machine learning is to be applied in these new settings,…
RG-TTA adapts neural forecasters to streaming time series shifts by modulating adaptation intensity.
In this paper, we focus on quantifying model stability as a function of random seed by investigating the effects of the induced randomness on model performance and the robustness of the model in general. We specifically perform a controlled study on the effect of random seeds on the behaviour of attention, gradient-bas…
Urban traffic systems worldwide are suffering from severe traffic safety problems. Traffic safety is affected by many complex factors, and heavily related to all drivers' behaviors involved in traffic system. Drivers with aggressive driving behaviors increase the risk of traffic accidents. In order to manage the safety…
Online Passive-Aggressive (PA) learning is a class of online margin-based algorithms suitable for a wide range of real-time prediction tasks, including classification and regression. PA algorithms are formulated in terms of deterministic point-estimation problems governed by a set of user-defined hyperparameters: the a…
This paper presents an improvement to model learning when using multi-class LogitBoost for classification. Motivated by the statistical view, LogitBoost can be seen as additive tree regression. Two important factors in this setting are: 1) coupled classifier output due to a sum-to-zero constraint, and 2) the dense Hess…
In order-driven markets, limit-order book (LOB) resiliency is an important microscopic indicator of market quality when the order book is hit by a liquidity shock and plays an essential role in the design of optimal submission strategies of large orders. However, the evolutionary behavior of LOB resilience around liqui…
The kind of realized mission inflows the sensitivity to risk. Among other factors, the risk results from decision about liquid assets investment level and liquid assets financing. The higher the risk exposure, the higher the level of liquid assets. If the specific risk exposure is smaller, the more aggressive could be …
Investors' strategies in a market influenced by price impact are analyzed, showing aggressive behavior when impact exceeds a critical point.
MIDAS learns to adaptively control other cars in urban driving scenarios.
Detecting aggressive cancer tumors using ctDNA dynamics from few blood samples.
New method preserves spectral clustering performance under aggressive sparsification and quantization.
The study analyzes how large language models form and express investor risk profiles.
Each woman living in the United States has about 1 in 8 chance of developing invasive breast cancer. The mitotic cell count is one of the most common tests to assess the aggressiveness or grade of breast cancer. In this prognosis, histopathology images must be examined by a pathologist using high-resolution microscopes…
Study proposes DRL for investor-specific portfolio optimization considering asset volatility.
In this paper, we propose exact passive-aggressive (PA) online algorithms for learning to rank. The proposed algorithms can be used even when we have interval labels instead of actual labels for examples. The proposed algorithms solve a convex optimization problem at every trial. We find exact solution to those optimiz…
Conformal Candidate Certification advances offline MBO by certifying candidate designs with statistical guarantees.
Study examines how traders with asymmetric information and adaptive learning strategies affect market efficiency.
Adapts safe policies for exploration in high-risk settings.
We consider the problem of demixing a sequence of source signals from the sum of noisy bilinear measurements. It is a generalized mathematical model for blind demixing with blind deconvolution, which is prevalent across the areas of dictionary learning, image processing, and communications. However, state-of- the-art c…
We explore the competitive effects of reaction time of automated trading strategies in simulated financial markets containing a single exchange with public limit order book and continuous double auction matching. A large body of research conducted over several decades has been devoted to trading agent design and simula…
Random matrix theory explains how neural networks adapt to data.
The Mike-Farmer (MF) model was constructed empirically based on the continuous double auction mechanism in an order-driven market, which can successfully reproduce the cubic law of returns and the diffusive behavior of stock prices at the transaction level. However, the volatility (defined by absolute return) in the MF…
New algorithms accelerate solving nonlinear matrix decomposition with ReLU.
We initiate the study of multi-stage episodic reinforcement learning under adversarial corruptions in both the rewards and the transition probabilities of the underlying system extending recent results for the special case of stochastic bandits. We provide a framework which modifies the aggressive exploration enjoyed b…
We present a class of macroscopic models of the Limit Order Book to simulate the aggregate behaviour of market makers in response to trading flows. The resulting models are solved numerically and asymptotically, and a class of similarity solutions linked to order book formation and recovery is explored. The main result…
Efficiently identifies promising hyperparameters for online learning models.