The paper develops a method for forecasting power consumption at various levels of aggregation.
problem Forecasting power consumption at different levels of household aggregation.
method Three-step process: feature generation, aggregation, and projection.
result The method provides theoretical guarantees on prediction error and performs well on real data.
Convolutional model disaggregates electricity consumption data.
problem Disaggregating aggregate electricity consumption data into individual appliance usage.
method Gated linear unit convolutional layers and residual blocks refine neural network output. Partially overlapped sequences are averaged for final output.
result The proposed model outperforms existing models in disaggregating various appliance usage.
Motivated by electricity consumption metering, we extend existing nonnegative matrix factorization (NMF) algorithms to use linear measurements as observations, instead of matrix entries. The objective is to estimate multiple time series at a fine temporal scale from temporal aggregates measured on each individual serie…
Nowcasts consumption and investment from Turkish bank transactions for real-time GDP.
problem Lack of timely data for GDP nowcasting in Turkey.
method Used aggregated bank transactions to replicate quarterly national accounts data.
result Bank transaction data successfully nowcasts Turkish GDP, especially useful for countries with long data lags.
We consider the setting of sequential prediction of arbitrary sequences based on specialized experts. We first provide a review of the relevant literature and present two theoretical contributions: a general analysis of the specialist aggregation rule of Freund et al. (1997) and an adaptation of fixed-share rules of He…
In a market with stochastic investment opportunities, we study an optimal consumption investment problem for an agent with recursive utility of Epstein-Zin type. Focusing on the empirically relevant specification where both risk aversion and elasticity of intertemporal substitution are in excess of one, we characterize…
We propose a class of discrete-time stochastic models for the pricing of inflation-linked assets. The paper begins with an axiomatic scheme for asset pricing and interest rate theory in a discrete-time setting. The first axiom introduces a "risk-free" asset, and the second axiom determines the intertemporal pricing rel…
Model shows how past consumption affects household confidence, leading to varied economic outcomes.
problem Exploring how past consumption impacts current confidence and economic activity in a multi-household model.
method Developed a DSGE model where past consumption influences individual household confidence and consumption propensity.
result The model demonstrates a range of economic outcomes including high output with no crises, high output with increased volatility, and alternation of high and low output states.
A new model for heterogeneous populations optimizes consumption and investment over short horizons.
problem Optimizing consumption and investment in economies with a heterogeneous population over short time periods.
method Continuous-time general equilibrium framework with Brownian flow on a type space, solving vanishing-horizon problems under relative-income criteria.
result Existence and characterization of short-horizon Duesenberry equilibrium, with sharp asset-pricing implications.
The article improves prediction by aggregating Kalman recursions online.
problem Improving expert aggregation in prediction models.
method Using exponential weights and state-space models to aggregate Kalman recursions.
result New algorithms outperform existing methods in Kalman recursion expert aggregation.
The purpose of this paper relies on the study of long term affine yield curves modeling. It is inspired by the Ramsey rule of the economic literature, that links discount rate and marginal utility of aggregate optimal consumption. For such a long maturity modelization, the possibility of adjusting preferences to new ec…
We offer mathematical tractability and new insights for a framework of exponential utility with non-negative consumption, a constraint often omitted in the literature giving rise to economically unviable solutions. Specifically, using the Kuhn-Tucker theorem and the notion of aggregate state price density (Malamud and …
The purpose of this paper relies on the study of long term yield curves modeling. Inspired by the economic litterature, it provides a financial interpretation of the Ramsey rule that links discount rate and marginal utility of aggregate optimal consumption. For such a long maturity modelization, the possibility of adju…
The paper refutes standard asset pricing models and introduces new theories.
problem Inaccuracies in standard asset pricing models.
method Introduces new theories and empirical tests to explain asset pricing anomalies.
result New theories explain why standard models are inaccurate and provide insights.
We consider a power utility maximization problem with additive habits in a framework of discrete-time markets and random endowments. For certain classes of incomplete markets, we establish estimates for the optimal consumption stream in terms of the aggregate state price density, investigate the asymptotic behaviour of…
New method combines adaptive learning rate and flexible prediction for online loss aggregation.
problem Online aggregation of unbounded losses using shifting experts.
method Adapted AdaHedge algorithm with Fixed Share meta-algorithm for signed unbounded losses.
result Improved shifting regret and validity of regret bounds in adversarial setting.
Predicts next item in sequential bundles using Transformers.
problem Predicting next item in sequentially consumed bundles.
method Used custom Transformers, GPT-3, LSTM, reinforcement learning, Markov models.
result Custom Transformer with decoder-only architecture most accurate.
New method for disaggregate electricity demand forecasting at household level.
problem Challenges in forecasting electricity demand at individual household level.
method Additive stacking method for probabilistic disaggregate electricity demand forecasting.
result Improved accuracy in disaggregate electricity demand forecasting.
Study optimal retirement time and consumption with habitual persistence.
problem Understanding retirement consumption patterns with habitual persistence.
method Established concise habitual evolution, used martingale and duality methods.
result Optimal consumption declines sharply at retirement but excess consumption increases.
Proposes a new consumption strategy based on martingale principles.
problem Optimizing consumption based on investment strategies without risk preferences.
method Introduces martingale consumption as a consumption pattern that adjusts to expected future consumption.
result Identifies explicit solutions in deterministic models and establishes uniqueness in general cases.
Frugal method predicts multiple local electricity loads efficiently.
problem Day-ahead forecasting of over 1000 substations in France.
method Adaptive generalized additive models with state-space representations, combined with transfer learning.
result Reduction of computational needs and emissions with competitive accuracy.
This paper analyzes popular time-nonseparable utility functions that describe "habit formation" consumer preferences comparing current consumption with the time averaged past consumption of the same individual and "catching up with the Joneses" (CuJ) models comparing individual consumption with a cross-sectional averag…
The paper proposes a new DR model to better predict EUCs' responses in real-time pricing.
problem Static demand functions fail to capture temporal correlation in EUC behaviors.
method Proposes a dynamical DR model using neural networks to learn from historical data.
result The dynamical DR model significantly outperforms static models in predicting EUC responses.
Study optimal consumption for loss-averse agents considering past spending peaks.
problem Optimal consumption for loss-averse agents with reference to past spending maximum.
method Adopted S-shaped utility, concave envelope, HJB variational inequality, dual transform, and smooth-fit conditions.
result Obtained piecewise closed-form solutions for optimal consumption and investment control.
Study many-player investment-consumption games with power FPPs, finding market-risk preference affects consumption.
problem Investment and consumption optimization in a mean field competition setting.
method Solve many-player and mean field games using power FPPs, providing closed-form solutions.
result Market-risk relative consumption preference affects agent's consumption decisions.
Paper proposes a novel optimization method for disaggregating smart meter data.
problem Energy disaggregation, inferring appliance-specific energy consumption from aggregate meter data.
method Two-stage optimization approach: first phase uses mixed integer programming, second phase binary quadratic optimization with penalty terms and appliance constraints.
result Proposed method successfully reconstructs appliance signatures, overcoming previous optimization-based methods' limitations.
Adaptive models improve electricity demand forecasting during lockdown.
problem Poor load forecasting due to sudden consumption changes during lockdown.
method Adaptive generalized additive models with Kalman filters and expert aggregation.
result Significant reduction in prediction errors compared to traditional models.
Solves pair trading problem using consumption-investment theory.
problem Pair trading consumption-investment problem
method Reduces HJB equation to a linear parabolic equation solvable explicitly
result Simple solution to pair trading problem
Investor optimizes investment and consumption under uncertain market conditions with constraints.
problem Investor optimizes investment and consumption in a stochastic environment with model uncertainty and constraints.
method Robust control problem solved using stochastic Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman-Isaacs equations, backward stochastic differential equations, and bounded mean oscillation martingale theory.
result Investor incurs utility loss when ignoring model uncertainty, and constraints impact optimal strategy and value function.
Deep neural networks predict electricity consumption accurately.
problem Predicting future electricity consumption for better management.
method Used Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN) and Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) networks to predict electricity consumption based on past data.
result Both RNN and LSTM achieved an average Root Mean Square error of 0.1.
The paper examines smoothness of value function in consumption-investment models with borrowing constraints.
problem Investor's optimal consumption and investment under consumption-wealth utility and borrowing constraint.
method Second-order smoothness of value function, optimal consumption-investment policy in feedback form, smooth fit condition.
result The value function is second-order smooth and the constraint is binding under certain conditions.
Paper uses CVAE to simulate tariff impacts on electricity consumption.
problem Simulating tariff impacts on household electricity consumption.
method CVAE-based clustering and generation of consumption profiles.
result CVAE method can reproduce rebound and side effects in consumption profiles.
A continuous-time consumption-investment model with constraint is considered for a small investor whose decisions are the consumption rate and the allocation of wealth to a risk-free and a risky asset with logarithmic Brownian motion fluctuations. The consumption rate is subject to an upper bound constraint which linea…
Paper examines power consumption in neural networks using various activation functions.
problem Power consumption in machine learning models.
method Examines power consumption for different activation functions.
result Substantial differences in power consumption exist between activation functions.
The paper validates the intensity of use model for Iran's steel consumption using economic activity indexes.
problem Validating the intensity of use model for Iran's steel consumption.
method Used support vector machines and economic activity indexes to model and predict steel consumption.
result Iran's steel consumption is strongly correlated with its economic activity.
The paper analyzes optimal consumption with past spending maximum as a reference.
problem Optimal consumption with past spending maximum as a reference.
method Path-dependent exponential utility, Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) equation, dual transform, smooth-fit principle.
result Closed-form solutions for optimal investment and consumption strategies in each region.
Semi-decentralized federated learning combines device-to-server and device-to-device communications for faster convergence.
problem Faster convergence in federated learning with decentralized model training.
method Two timescale hybrid federated learning (TT-HF) with cooperative D2D model aggregations.
result Achieves sublinear convergence rate of O(1/t) with adaptive control algorithm.
The paper solves a consumption-investment problem with state-dependent lower bounds.
problem A life-time consumption-investment problem with a state-dependent lower bound on consumption.
method Transformed the problem into a state-independent control problem to apply standard theory.
result Explicit optimal strategies provided for both homogeneous and non-homogeneous constraints.
Intertemporal model for cost-efficient consumption using copulas.
problem Optimizing consumption over time considering risk preferences.
method Copulas for intertemporal structure, Distribution Builder for risk preferences, Black-Scholes and CEV models for demonstration.
result Demonstrates cost-efficient consumption model using copulas.
A new hierarchical clustering method selects representative points from sub-minimum-spanning-trees.
problem Selecting representative points for hierarchical clustering to improve robustness and reliability.
method Identify representative points using reciprocal nearest data points in sub-minimum-spanning-trees.
result The proposed algorithm outperforms other methods in accuracy and efficiency.
Study optimal consumption and investment strategies with constraints in a market with random coefficients.
problem Optimal consumption and investment strategies with constraints in a regime switching market with random coefficients.
method Explicit optimal strategies provided via solutions to new BSDE systems.
result Solving new BSDEs to find optimal values and strategies.
In a recent work (Chattopadhyay, A. K. et al, Europhys. Lett. {\bf 91}, 58003, 2010) based on food consumption statistics, we showed how a stochastic agent based model could represent the time variation of the income distribution statistics in a developing economy, thereby defining an alternative \enquote{poverty index…
Investment herding can reduce household consumption, a phenomenon called crowding-out effect.
problem Investment herding's impact on household consumption.
method Optimal control theory to model and solve for household investment and consumption decisions.
result Existence of crowding-out effect due to investment herding.
Investment and consumption strategies optimized with uncertain parameters.
problem Investment and consumption preferences in an incomplete financial market with uncertain parameters.
method PDE characterization and semi-explicit saddle-point construction of forward preferences and optimal strategies.
result A specific relationship between initial investment preference and forward consumption preference is necessary.
Study optimal consumption with relaxed benchmarks and drawdown constraints.
problem Optimal consumption under relaxed benchmark tracking and consumption drawdown constraint.
method Transformed stochastic control problem into regular control problem with state-control constraints, then solved using dual transform and optimal consumption behavior.
result Closed-form solution for optimal investment and consumption in feedback form.
Research compares MLP and MLR models for Balkan energy consumption predictions.
problem Predicting energy consumption in the Balkans using demographic and economic parameters.
method Applied multiple linear regression and multilayer perceptron models to data from 1995-2014.
result Multilayer perceptron model predicts energy consumption better than multiple regression model.
Investor optimizes entry and consumption with habit formation effect.
problem Optimal timing and consumption decisions under habit formation.
method Stochastic Perron's method to prove value function uniqueness.
result Value function is the unique viscosity solution of variational inequalities.
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