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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,742 papers · 148 categories

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100200300400 · Jun 202019922001200920172026
48 results for age uncertainty minimization

Method converts age labels into distributions to improve speaker age estimation.

problem Label ambiguity in age labels makes precise speaker age estimation challenging.
method Converts age labels into label distributions and uses label distribution learning.
result Our method outperforms baseline methods by reducing MAE by 10% on a real-world dataset.

Bayesian neural networks improve stellar age predictions with reduced uncertainty.

problem Handling uncertainties in stellar dating using complex data relationships.
method Hierarchical Bayesian architecture with neural networks for probabilistic modeling.
result Age predictions with reduced uncertainty and mean absolute error < 1 Ga.

SPT predicts age and mass of red giants from spectra.

problem Challenges in age and mass estimation of red giants using traditional methods.
method SPT framework with Multi-head Hadamard Self-Attention and Mahalanobis distance-based loss function.
result Remarkable age and mass estimations with low errors and uncertainties.

Though black-box predictors are state-of-the-art for many complex tasks, they often fail to properly quantify predictive uncertainty and may provide inappropriate predictions for unfamiliar data. Instead, we can learn more reliable models by letting them either output a prediction set or abstain when the uncertainty is…

2019-06-13abs ↗pdf ↗

Proposes a new model for mortality forecasting considering age groups and cohort effects.

problem Longevity risk due to ageing population.
method Mixed-effects time-series approach with age groups dependency and random cohort effects.
result Remarkable improvements in forecast accuracy compared to the CBD model.

VNNs transfer well across datasets for brain age prediction using cortical thickness features.

problem Predicting brain age using anatomical features.
method Transferability of coVariance neural networks (VNNs) in brain age prediction.
result VNNs can assign anatomical interpretability to elevated brain age gap in AD.

Distribution regression has recently attracted much interest as a generic solution to the problem of supervised learning where labels are available at the group level, rather than at the individual level. Current approaches, however, do not propagate the uncertainty in observations due to sampling variability in the gr…

2017-05-11abs ↗pdf ↗

Proposes a new method for robust uncertainty quantification in regression tasks.

problem Robust uncertainty estimation for deep neural networks in regression tasks.
method Generalized Auxiliary Uncertainty Estimator (AuxUE) scheme, considering both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties.
result DIDO method provides robust uncertainty estimates in noisy inputs, scalable to image-level and pixel-wise tasks.

We solve a lifecycle model in which the consumer's chronological age does not move in lockstep with calendar time. Instead, biological age increases at a stochastic non-linear rate in time like a broken clock that might occasionally move backwards. In other words, biological age could actually decline. Our paper is ins…

2018-11-25abs ↗pdf ↗

The paper uses AI to analyze ECG data, revealing age-related changes and identifying key features.

problem Investigating age-related changes in ECG data to distinguish healthy from disease-related changes.
method Employed deep-learning and tree-based models on raw ECG signals and features from a diverse age group.
result Identified age-related declines in breathing rates and high SDANN values in elderly individuals.

Graph embedding provides an efficient solution for graph analysis by converting the graph into a low-dimensional space which preserves the structure information. In contrast to the graph structure data, the i.i.d. node embedding can be processed efficiently in terms of both time and space. Current semi-supervised graph…

2017-05-15abs ↗pdf ↗

Bayesian deep learning improves deep learning's capabilities across diverse settings.

problem Overlooked metrics, tasks, and data types in deep learning.
method Revisits strengths of Bayesian deep learning and addresses challenges.
result Bayesian deep learning can elevate deep learning's capabilities across diverse settings.

Probabilistic programming aids in automatically dating ice cores, reducing manual error and uncertainty.

problem Automatically dating ice cores with high accuracy and capturing uncertainty.
method Probabilistic models and probabilistic programming for automatic inference.
result Demonstrated the use of probabilistic programming for ice core dating, showcasing its benefits and limitations.

Novel U-learning method for predicting continuous outcomes from high-dimensional data.

problem Challenges in making valid inferences on predictions from high-dimensional inputs.
method U-learning via combinatory multi-subsampling for ensemble predictions and confidence intervals.
result Valid inferences on predictions from Lasso and neural networks.

Optimal financial strategies minimize risk under uncertain models.

problem Maximizing utility in financial markets with model uncertainty.
method Optimized strategies converge to those with minimal norm as uncertainty increases.
result Optimal strategies with minimal norm emerge as uncertainty grows.

Bayesian framework evaluates predictors of subjective visual tasks.

problem Evaluating uncertainty in machine learning predictors for tasks with subjective annotations.
method Bayesian framework to estimate epistemic uncertainty from human labels.
result Framework successfully applied to four image classification tasks.

A new FL algorithm reduces communication overhead by selectively updating model parameters.

problem Data heterogeneity and communication overhead in federated learning.
method Uses age of information metric to selectively update model parameters and group clients with similar data.
result Our method can expedite training and surpass other communication-efficient strategies in efficiency.

AGE improves graph embedding by smoothing features and iteratively enhancing node embeddings.

problem Challenges in attributed graph embedding, especially in preserving optimal low-pass characteristics and robustness.
method AGE, a novel framework combining Laplacian smoothing and adaptive encoding, addresses these issues.
result AGE consistently outperforms state-of-the-art methods on node clustering and link prediction tasks.

Study reveals that cryptocurrency price variations follow power-law distributions, influenced by age and market capitalization.

problem Understanding the statistical properties of cryptocurrencies, especially their price variations.
method Comprehensive investigation of over 7000 digital currencies, analyzing their price returns over time.
result Cryptocurrency price returns follow power-law distributions, with age and market capitalization influencing these distributions.

Machine learning models predict brain age with systematic bias, corrected in this study.

problem Systematic bias in machine learning regression models for brain age prediction.
method General constrained optimization approach to correct bias.
result Our method effectively eliminates the bias from brain age predictions.

A framework detects nonlinear and interaction effects in epidemiological data with uncertainty quantification.

problem Lack of reliable inference for ML-discovered nonlinearities and interactions in epidemiological data.
method Combines Bayesian sparse regression, tree ensembles, and Shapley values.
result Valid uncertainty quantification for feature effects at the individual level.

Optimal annuitization strategy depends on age, labor income, and mortality risk.

problem Maximizing utility from consumption and labor income under age-dependent mortality.
method Dynamic programming approach to derive closed-form solutions.
result Post-retirement labor income acts as a substitute for annuitization.