Lapse-supported life insurance exacerbates adverse selection risks.
problem Lapse-supported life insurance increases adverse selection costs.
method Modeling 'Term to 100' contracts and analyzing three methods of managing lapse surplus.
result Adverse selection losses can be almost unlimited under certain conditions.
Study fills and adverse selection effects on trading strategy simulation.
problem Effects of fill probabilities and adverse fills on trading strategy simulation.
method Stochastic optimal control market-making problem, empirical evidence on liquid futures contracts.
result Fill probabilities and adverse fills significantly affect trading strategy performance.
Study shows informed traders harm market makers but price discovery benefits outweigh costs.
problem Informed traders' impact on market makers' profitability.
method Agent-based model with heterogeneous learning agents, multi-agent reinforcement learning.
result Informed market order flow is harmful when aggregate informedness is low but beneficial as it increases.
Developing an Agent-Based Model to Mitigate Adverse Selection in Uniswap v3 Liquidity Providers
problem Adverse selection in Uniswap v3 liquidity providers
method Agent-Based Model incorporating blockchain microstructure and volatility dynamics
result Dynamic fee schedules improve hedged Profit and Loss for liquidity providers
Study Nash competition among dealers quoting prices to clients with unknown trading motives.
problem Adverse selection and inventory costs in dealer-client interactions.
method Analyzes one-shot Nash competition with unknown client type and inventory constraints.
result Unique symmetric Nash equilibrium exists and can be characterized by a nonlinear ODE.
This paper is split in three parts: first we use labelled trade data to exhibit how market participants accept or not transactions via limit orders as a function of liquidity imbalance; then we develop a theoretical stochastic control framework to provide details on how one can exploit his knowledge on liquidity imbala…
AI traders learn to exploit meta-orders from slower traders, increasing their profits.
problem Adverse selection of medium-frequency traders by high-frequency AI agents.
method Reinforcement learning in a Hawkes LOB model, with impulse control and PPO.
result AI agents can learn to capitalize on meta-orders, increasing their profits.
Sunshine trading theory predicts lower execution costs and liquidity provision through explicit preannouncements, but evidence is scarce in traditional markets.
problem Adverse selection on liquidity provision
method Reconstructing metaorders and comparing them with visible TWAP executions
result Visible TWAPs face lower execution costs and leave a smaller permanent price impact compared to hidden metaorders.
In a continuous-time setting where a risk-averse agent controls the drift of an output process driven by a Brownian motion, optimal contracts are linear in the terminal output; this result is well-known in a setting with moral hazard and -under stronger assumptions - adverse selection. We show that this result continue…
MLHO predicts COVID-19 adverse outcomes using past medical records.
problem Predicting adverse outcomes after COVID-19 infection.
method Iterative feature and algorithm selection, sequential representation mining.
result Mean AUC ROC of 0.91 for mortality prediction.
This paper solves optimal market making for multiple goods, including bundling, under adverse selection.
problem Designing optimal market making mechanisms for multiple goods and adverse selection.
method Formulated as an optimal transport problem with geometric constraints, using differentiable economics.
result Optimal market making mechanisms can exploit bundling to improve prices and accept payments in kind.
Model evaluates insurance risk using thermodynamic principles.
problem Risk of lapses due to adverse selection in insurance.
method Collective model with diffusion process influenced by statistical mechanics.
result Derives level premium to evaluate insurance risk.
Proposes a framework to adjust quotes for informational risk in markets with informed traders and price-revealing quotes.
problem Informational risk in markets with informed traders and price-revealing quotes.
method Proposes a tractable framework to adjust quotes considering adverse selection and price reading.
result Market makers can adjust their quotes to better manage informational risk.
Cryptocurrency patterns stable across market caps, validated by microstructure theory.
problem Stable patterns in cryptocurrency microstructure across different market caps.
method Unified CatBoost modeling pipeline with time-series cross validation, validated by backtests.
result Feature rankings and partial effects are stable across assets despite heterogeneous liquidity and volatility.
A simple strategy optimizes broker-client trading, reducing price discounts for informed traders.
problem Optimizing broker-client trading to balance client flow and informed trader losses.
method Modelled as a stochastic control problem, derived optimal strategy in closed form, introduced algorithm.
result Optimal strategy reduces price discounts for informed traders, balancing client flow and informed trader losses.
New formula identifies and quantifies costs for automated market makers.
problem Adverse selection costs faced by liquidity providers in automated market makers.
method Derives a Black-Scholes-like formula for AMMs and identifies loss-versus-rebalancing cost.
result Closed-form expressions for LVR applicable to all automated market makers.
We study the problem of detecting adverse drug events in electronic healthcare records. The challenge in this work is to aggregate heterogeneous data types involving diagnosis codes, drug codes, as well as lab measurements. An earlier framework proposed for the same problem demonstrated promising predictive performance…
This paper improves bond market making by adjusting hit-ratios for client flow quality.
problem Economic misleading of raw hit-ratios in corporate bond market making.
method Stochastic-control framework with residual-quality-adjusted hit-ratio.
result Optimal quotes decompose into various components, improving service/economics frontier.
We propose a limit order book (LOB) model with dynamics that account for both the impact of the most recent order and the shape of the LOB. We present an empirical analysis showing that the type of the last order significantly alters the submission rate of immediate future orders, even after accounting for the state of…
FLAIR measures LP competitiveness in AMMs, improving LP performance evaluations.
problem LP returns are affected by both market risk and competitive strategies.
method Introduces FLAIR metric to quantify LP competitiveness and assesses its impact on LP returns.
result FLAIR captures dynamic behavior of LPs and differentiates between active provisioning strategies.
This thesis applies RL to market making in China's commodity market.
problem Leverage RL for market making in China's commodity market.
method Developed an automatic trading system using RL.
result RL is feasible for market making in China's commodity market.
This paper models AMM positions using CI options to calculate LVR and provide actionable guidance.
problem Calculating and managing adverse-selection costs in automated market makers (AMMs).
method Modeling AMM positions as perpetual American CI options to replicate delta and calculate LVR.
result LVR is identical to theta of CI options, and AMM positions have approximately constant LVR over long windows.
The study uses equity order flow to forecast stock returns and resolves the liquidity premium puzzle.
problem The liquidity premium and its relation to investment horizons.
method Directly estimated Kyle's price-impact coefficient λ from daily equity order flow data.
result Signed order flow predicts stock returns, with volume volatility predicting lower returns.
PA-AMM divides reserves into active and passive parts for better liquidity provider wealth.
problem Reducing adverse selection costs in AMMs.
method Divides reserves into active and passive parts, rebalancing top of each block.
result Improves LP wealth compared to CFMMs by reducing LVR.
This article provides a novel framework to evaluate limit order tactics that highlights expected fill price, adverse price selection cost, and opportunity cost. We formulate the problem of optimal execution of market orders with nonlinear market impact, power law decay kernel, and stochastic and deterministic liquidity…
Firms delay write-downs for adverse macroeconomic and industry outcomes but not for firm-specific issues.
problem Timeliness of write-downs for adverse macroeconomic and industry outcomes versus firm-specific issues.
method Comparative analysis of write-downs driven by macroeconomic and industry outcomes versus firm-specific outcomes.
result Firms delay write-downs for adverse macroeconomic and industry outcomes but not for firm-specific issues.
Study predicts adverse events in Afghanistan using time series data.
problem Predicting the number of negative events in Afghanistan's theater of war.
method Regression analysis on time series data, non-conventional aggregation of districts, machine learning models.
result Predictive models show reasonable performance on historical data, but other variables do not improve prediction quality.
Study liquidity provision in decentralized exchanges considering risk aversion and replication costs.
problem Economic viability of liquidity provision in decentralized exchanges (DEXs).
method Formulated strategic interactions as a sequential game with risk-averse LP, traders, and arbitrageurs.
result DEX liquidity depth is crucial for risk management, influenced by risk aversion and replication costs.
Hidden Markov Models analyze mobile health data to identify APNS states.
problem Subjective self-report measures of APNS lead to errors and biases.
method Exploratory hidden Markov factor models and Stabilized Expectation-Maximization algorithm.
result Identified homogeneous APNS states and dynamic transitions.
JIT liquidity providers can sometimes reduce overall market liquidity by crowding out passive LPs.
problem JIT liquidity providers can reduce overall market liquidity by crowding out passive LPs.
method Game-theoretic model with asymmetrically informed agents to analyze JIT liquidity provision in blockchain-based decentralized exchanges.
result JIT LPs only provide liquidity to uninformed orders and crowd out passive LPs when order volume is not sufficiently elastic to pool depth, potentially reducing overall market liquidity.
We consider a general framework of optimal mechanism design under adverse selection and ambiguity about the type distribution of agents. We prove the existence of optimal mechanisms under minimal assumptions on the contract space and prove that centralized contracting implemented via mechanisms is equivalent to delegat…
Study incentive efficiency in monopoly insurance markets with hidden information.
problem Maximizing social welfare in a monopoly insurance market with hidden agent types.
method Maximizes social welfare function subject to incentive compatibility and individual rationality constraints.
result Optimal menus of contracts depend on the level of social welfare weight and agent risk attitudes.
Develops a more powerful selective inference method for stepwise feature selection.
problem Loss of power in existing conditional SI methods due to over-conditioning.
method Uses homotopy continuation approach to overcome over-conditioning.
result Shows improved power and efficiency in selective inference for feature selection.
We develop a model to study the role of rationality in economics and biology. The model's agents differ continuously in their ability to make rational choices. The agents' objective is to ensure their individual survival over time or, equivalently, to maximize profits. In equilibrium, however, rational agents who maxim…
Study finds non-adherence to schizophrenia meds leads to earlier adverse events.
problem Impact of medication non-adherence on adverse outcomes in schizophrenia patients.
method Survival analysis, causal inference methods (T-learner, S-learner, nearest neighbor matching), different amounts of longitudinal information.
result Non-adherence to schizophrenia meds advances adverse events by 1 to 4 months.
Optimal fees protect passive LPs in AMMs under varying market conditions.
problem Adverse selection losses in AMMs are not offset by static trading fees.
method Dynamic reduced-form model with parallel AMM and CEX, large-scale simulations, real market data analysis.
result Optimal AMM fees are stable under normal conditions but high in volatile periods to protect LPs.
Proposes a sample selection algorithm for fair and robust AI training.
problem Balancing fairness and robustness in AI models, especially with corrupted data.
method Formulates and solves a combinatorial optimization problem for unbiased sample selection, proposing a greedy algorithm.
result Improves fairness and robustness compared to state-of-the-art techniques, both synthetically and on real datasets.
New robust estimator improves variable selection and coefficient estimation in linear regression with heavy-tailed errors and outliers.
problem Heavy-tailed errors and anomalous predictors in high-dimensional regression.
method Adaptive PENSE estimator for robust variable selection and estimation.
result Adaptive PENSE estimator provides reliable results even under very heavy-tailed errors and aberrant predictors.
Study optimizes market making in Chinese stock market with stochastic control and scenario analysis.
problem Limited research on market making in Chinese stock market.
method Optimal market making framework with exponential CARA utility function, accounting for market conditions and risks.
result Impact of volatility and stamp duty on market maker's profit and liquidity.
The paper explains credit decisions using Shapley decomposition for adverse actions.
problem Identifying predictors responsible for adverse credit decisions.
method Develops a simple and intuitive approach based on Shapley decomposition for models with low-order interactions.
result Shows the approach generalizes to Shapley decomposition and Baseline Shapley.
Recurring international financial crises have adverse socioeconomic effects and demand novel regulatory instruments or strategies for risk management and market stabilization. However, the complex web of market interactions often impedes rational decisions that would absolutely minimize the risk. Here we show that, for…
This paper discusses the financial risks faced by the UK Pension Protection Fund (PPF) and what, if anything, it can do about them. It draws lessons from the regulatory regimes under which other financial institutions, such as banks and insurance companies, operate and asks why pension funds are treated differently. It…
IMM uses imitation learning and predictive representation learning to improve market making strategies.
problem Challenges in training RL agents for multi-price level market making strategies.
method IMM combines RL and imitation learning, introducing effective state and action representations and a representation learning unit.
result IMM outperforms existing RL-based market making strategies in financial criteria.
HarDNN detects and protects CNNs from hardware errors.
problem Hardware errors in CNNs can corrupt inference output.
method Statistical error injection and heuristic vulnerability assessment.
result HarDNN improves CNN resilience with minimal additional computation.
Intersectional constraints improve selection outcomes by reducing inequality.
problem Persistent inequality and reduced utility in selection processes due to implicit bias.
method Introducing intersectional constraints to mitigate the adverse effects of implicit bias in selection processes.
result Intersectional constraints can recover almost all the utility achievable in the absence of implicit bias, offering a significant advantage over non-intersectional constraints.
This paper addresses reward estimation and incentive design for agents with hidden rewards.
problem Estimating and incentivizing agents with unknown rewards in a learning setting.
method Repeated adverse selection game with a self-interested learning agent and a learning principal. Introduces an estimator for consistent reward estimation and a data-driven incentive policy.
result Finite-sample consistency of the estimator and a rigorous regret bound for the principal.
We use a recent, high-quality data set from Nasdaq to perform an empirical analysis of order flow in a limit order book (LOB) before and after the arrival of a market order. For each of the stocks that we study, we identify a sequence of distinct phases across which the net flow of orders differs considerably. We note …
We consider the stochastic control problem of a financial trader that needs to unwind a large asset portfolio within a short period of time. The trader can simultaneously submit active orders to a primary market and passive orders to a dark pool. Our framework is flexible enough to allow for price-dependent impact func…