Actor critic methods with sparse rewards in model-based deep reinforcement learning typically require a deterministic binary reward function that reflects only two possible outcomes: if, for each step, the goal has been achieved or not. Our hypothesis is that we can influence an agent to learn faster by applying an ext…
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arXiv research
A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
168,695 papers · 148 categories
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48 results for “adverse environments”
Study shows informed traders harm market makers but price discovery benefits outweigh costs.
problem Informed traders' impact on market makers' profitability.
method Agent-based model with heterogeneous learning agents, multi-agent reinforcement learning.
result Informed market order flow is harmful when aggregate informedness is low but beneficial as it increases.
Study shows visual feedback and monetary incentives reduce plugload energy consumption in commercial buildings.
problem Mitigating energy consumption in commercial buildings through occupant plugload control.
method Field experiments with visual feedback and monetary incentives in government and university buildings.
result Mean energy reduction of ~9.52% in office environments and ~21.61% in university environments with visual feedback.
A simple strategy optimizes broker-client trading, reducing price discounts for informed traders.
problem Optimizing broker-client trading to balance client flow and informed trader losses.
method Modelled as a stochastic control problem, derived optimal strategy in closed form, introduced algorithm.
result Optimal strategy reduces price discounts for informed traders, balancing client flow and informed trader losses.
Improves speech recognition in noisy environments using robust acoustic models.
problem Adverse environments with significant mismatch between training and test conditions.
method Theoretical analysis of data augmentation as vicinal risk minimization, using mixture of Gaussians to incorporate robust inductive bias.
result Waveform-based approach shows 150% relative improvement in out-of-distribution generalization.
A Unified Deep Learning Framework for Short-Duration Speaker Verification in Adverse Environmentseess.AS
Unified deep learning framework improves SV in noisy, reverberant, and long non-speech segments.
problem Robust speaker verification in adverse environments, especially short speech segments.
method Feature Pyramid Module (FPM)-based Multi-scale Aggregation (MSA), Self-adaptive Soft VAD (SAS-VAD), Masking-based Speech Enhancement (SE).
result The proposed method outperforms baseline systems in challenging conditions.
Firms delay write-downs for adverse macroeconomic and industry outcomes but not for firm-specific issues.
problem Timeliness of write-downs for adverse macroeconomic and industry outcomes versus firm-specific issues.
method Comparative analysis of write-downs driven by macroeconomic and industry outcomes versus firm-specific outcomes.
result Firms delay write-downs for adverse macroeconomic and industry outcomes but not for firm-specific issues.
Instability and variability of Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) algorithms tend to adversely affect their performance. Averaged-DQN is a simple extension to the DQN algorithm, based on averaging previously learned Q-values estimates, which leads to a more stable training procedure and improved performance by reducing …
Study fills and adverse selection effects on trading strategy simulation.
problem Effects of fill probabilities and adverse fills on trading strategy simulation.
method Stochastic optimal control market-making problem, empirical evidence on liquid futures contracts.
result Fill probabilities and adverse fills significantly affect trading strategy performance.
Adversarial tradingq-fin.TR
Adversarial trading samples hurt financial markets.
problem Impact of adversarial samples on financial markets.
method Implemented adversarial samples in a trading environment.
result Adversarial samples negatively impact certain market participants.
Study finds non-adherence to schizophrenia meds leads to earlier adverse events.
problem Impact of medication non-adherence on adverse outcomes in schizophrenia patients.
method Survival analysis, causal inference methods (T-learner, S-learner, nearest neighbor matching), different amounts of longitudinal information.
result Non-adherence to schizophrenia meds advances adverse events by 1 to 4 months.
Lapse-supported life insurance exacerbates adverse selection risks.
problem Lapse-supported life insurance increases adverse selection costs.
method Modeling 'Term to 100' contracts and analyzing three methods of managing lapse surplus.
result Adverse selection losses can be almost unlimited under certain conditions.
The purpose of this paper is to identify the immediate and future retailer response to wholesale stockouts. We perform a statistical analysis of historical customer order and delivery data of a local tool wholesaler and distributor, whose customers are retailers, over a period of four years. We investigate the effect o…
The paper explains credit decisions using Shapley decomposition for adverse actions.
problem Identifying predictors responsible for adverse credit decisions.
method Develops a simple and intuitive approach based on Shapley decomposition for models with low-order interactions.
result Shows the approach generalizes to Shapley decomposition and Baseline Shapley.
Generalization in Reinforcement Learning with Selective Noise Injection and Information Bottleneckcs.LG
The ability for policies to generalize to new environments is key to the broad application of RL agents. A promising approach to prevent an agent's policy from overfitting to a limited set of training environments is to apply regularization techniques originally developed for supervised learning. However, there are sta…
We propose a reinforcement learning (RL) based closed loop power control algorithm for the downlink of the voice over LTE (VoLTE) radio bearer for an indoor environment served by small cells. The main contributions of our paper are to 1) use RL to solve performance tuning problems in an indoor cellular network for voic…
Developing an Agent-Based Model to Mitigate Adverse Selection in Uniswap v3 Liquidity Providers
problem Adverse selection in Uniswap v3 liquidity providers
method Agent-Based Model incorporating blockchain microstructure and volatility dynamics
result Dynamic fee schedules improve hedged Profit and Loss for liquidity providers
Inspired by recent ideas on how the analysis of complex financial risks can benefit from analogies with independent research areas, we propose an unorthodox framework for mapping microfinance credit risk---a major obstacle to the sustainability of lenders outreaching to the poor. Specifically, using the elements of net…
New study finds environment significantly suppresses star formation in galaxies, contrary to previous beliefs.
problem Understanding the role of environment in galaxy formation and evolution.
method Applied causal inference framework to IllustrisTNG simulations.
result Environment suppresses star formation by a factor of ~100, contrary to previous beliefs.
Study Nash competition among dealers quoting prices to clients with unknown trading motives.
problem Adverse selection and inventory costs in dealer-client interactions.
method Analyzes one-shot Nash competition with unknown client type and inventory constraints.
result Unique symmetric Nash equilibrium exists and can be characterized by a nonlinear ODE.
This paper is split in three parts: first we use labelled trade data to exhibit how market participants accept or not transactions via limit orders as a function of liquidity imbalance; then we develop a theoretical stochastic control framework to provide details on how one can exploit his knowledge on liquidity imbala…
We study the problem of detecting adverse drug events in electronic healthcare records. The challenge in this work is to aggregate heterogeneous data types involving diagnosis codes, drug codes, as well as lab measurements. An earlier framework proposed for the same problem demonstrated promising predictive performance…
Realtime price impact detectionq-fin.TR
Detecting real-time price impact in algo trading
problem Identifying the impact of traders' actions on market prices
method Measuring timing synchronicity between trader actions and adverse market events
result Detecting price impact on a per-action basis
AI traders learn to exploit meta-orders from slower traders, increasing their profits.
problem Adverse selection of medium-frequency traders by high-frequency AI agents.
method Reinforcement learning in a Hawkes LOB model, with impulse control and PPO.
result AI agents can learn to capitalize on meta-orders, increasing their profits.
MLHO predicts COVID-19 adverse outcomes using past medical records.
problem Predicting adverse outcomes after COVID-19 infection.
method Iterative feature and algorithm selection, sequential representation mining.
result Mean AUC ROC of 0.91 for mortality prediction.
Deep RL agents suffer from transient non-stationarity, which ITER mitigates.
problem Transient non-stationarity in deep RL agents affects generalization.
method Iterated Relearning (ITER) transfers knowledge between networks to reduce non-stationarity.
result ITER improves deep RL agents' performance on generalization benchmarks.
Study compares deep learning stock trading strategies in adverse market conditions.
problem Comparing deep learning models for stock trading performance in extreme market downturns.
method Reconstructed three deep learning models and compared their strategies through trading simulations.
result Deep learning models, especially LSTM, can mitigate losses in severe market downturns.
Multi-step methods such as Retrace() and -step -learning have become a crucial component of modern deep reinforcement learning agents. These methods are often evaluated as a part of bigger architectures and their evaluations rarely include enough samples to draw statistically significant conclusions about thei…
Sunshine trading theory predicts lower execution costs and liquidity provision through explicit preannouncements, but evidence is scarce in traditional markets.
problem Adverse selection on liquidity provision
method Reconstructing metaorders and comparing them with visible TWAP executions
result Visible TWAPs face lower execution costs and leave a smaller permanent price impact compared to hidden metaorders.
New method identifies sepsis-related patient features in EMR data.
problem Identify sepsis-related patient features in EMR data.
method Linear multivariate Hawkes process model with ReLU link function, coupled with gradient-based method.
result Identifies several interpretable GC chains that precede sepsis.
PHASE predicts surgical complications from physiological signals.
problem Predicting adverse surgical outcomes from physiological signals.
method Self-supervised transfer learning for physiological signals.
result PHASE outperforms other approaches in predicting five surgical complications.
In a continuous-time setting where a risk-averse agent controls the drift of an output process driven by a Brownian motion, optimal contracts are linear in the terminal output; this result is well-known in a setting with moral hazard and -under stronger assumptions - adverse selection. We show that this result continue…
These days human beings are facing many environmental challenges due to frequently occurring drought hazards. It may have an effect on the countrys environment, the community, and industries. Several adverse impacts of drought hazard are continued in Pakistan, including other hazards. However, early measurement and det…
A new framework detects adverse dataset shifts using outlier scores.
problem False alarms in dataset shift tests.
method Outlier scores to compare contamination rates at varying thresholds.
result Reduces the sensitivity to minor differences in predictive performance.
This paper solves optimal market making for multiple goods, including bundling, under adverse selection.
problem Designing optimal market making mechanisms for multiple goods and adverse selection.
method Formulated as an optimal transport problem with geometric constraints, using differentiable economics.
result Optimal market making mechanisms can exploit bundling to improve prices and accept payments in kind.
The paper addresses Dyna-style RL's value hallucination issue by proposing a new algorithm.
problem Value hallucination in Dyna-style RL due to bootstrapping simulated states.
method Introduces a new Dyna algorithm using predecessor models with multi-step updates.
result Evidence supports the Hallucinated Value Hypothesis (HVH), suggesting predecessor models with multi-step updates are promising.
Object detection in road scenes is necessary to develop both autonomous vehicles and driving assistance systems. Even if deep neural networks for recognition task have shown great performances using conventional images, they fail to detect objects in road scenes in complex acquisition situations. In contrast, polarizat…
This paper uses MIL and MHCNN-RNN to predict precursors to aviation safety events.
problem Identifying events that precede aviation safety incidents.
method Multiple-instance learning (MIL) framework combined with a Multi-Head Convolutional Neural Network-Recurrent Neural Network (MHCNN-RNN) architecture.
result Multiple binary classifiers outperform in predicting high speed and high path angle events during the approach phase.
The Thermodynamic Approach to Whole-Life Insurance: A Method for Evaluation of Surrender Riskq-fin.GN
Model evaluates insurance risk using thermodynamic principles.
problem Risk of lapses due to adverse selection in insurance.
method Collective model with diffusion process influenced by statistical mechanics.
result Derives level premium to evaluate insurance risk.
Proposes a framework to adjust quotes for informational risk in markets with informed traders and price-revealing quotes.
problem Informational risk in markets with informed traders and price-revealing quotes.
method Proposes a tractable framework to adjust quotes considering adverse selection and price reading.
result Market makers can adjust their quotes to better manage informational risk.
This article aims to explore an empirical approach to analyze the macroeconomicsdeterminants of default of borrowers. For this purpose, we have measured the impact of the adverse economic conditions on the degradation of the credit portfolio quality.In our paper, we have shed more light on the question of the aggravati…
India is ranked as the third most attractive nation for retail investment among emerging markets and many MNCs have been looking for the potential benefits to be taken from it. The development of organized retail has the potential of generating employment, improvement in technology, development of real estate etc. On t…
This paper improves bond market making by adjusting hit-ratios for client flow quality.
problem Economic misleading of raw hit-ratios in corporate bond market making.
method Stochastic-control framework with residual-quality-adjusted hit-ratio.
result Optimal quotes decompose into various components, improving service/economics frontier.
Cryptocurrency patterns stable across market caps, validated by microstructure theory.
problem Stable patterns in cryptocurrency microstructure across different market caps.
method Unified CatBoost modeling pipeline with time-series cross validation, validated by backtests.
result Feature rankings and partial effects are stable across assets despite heterogeneous liquidity and volatility.
Federated Learning tackles limited user participation with a new risk-aware approach.
problem Limited availability of users in federated learning environments.
method Random Access Model (RAM) and Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) to design a risk-aware federated learning algorithm.
result The proposed approach achieves significantly improved performance under various setups compared to standard federated learning.
New formula identifies and quantifies costs for automated market makers.
problem Adverse selection costs faced by liquidity providers in automated market makers.
method Derives a Black-Scholes-like formula for AMMs and identifies loss-versus-rebalancing cost.
result Closed-form expressions for LVR applicable to all automated market makers.
In multimodal traffic monitoring, we gather traffic statistics for distinct transportation modes, such as pedestrians, cars and bicycles, in order to analyze and improve people's daily mobility in terms of safety and convenience. On account of its robustness to bad light and adverse weather conditions, and inherent spe…
Study predicts adverse events in Afghanistan using time series data.
problem Predicting the number of negative events in Afghanistan's theater of war.
method Regression analysis on time series data, non-conventional aggregation of districts, machine learning models.
result Predictive models show reasonable performance on historical data, but other variables do not improve prediction quality.