Study fills and adverse selection effects on trading strategy simulation.
problem Effects of fill probabilities and adverse fills on trading strategy simulation.
method Stochastic optimal control market-making problem, empirical evidence on liquid futures contracts.
result Fill probabilities and adverse fills significantly affect trading strategy performance.
Paper tackles liquidation in dark pools with adverse selection, proving uniqueness of solution.
problem Liquidation in dark pools with adverse selection for multi-asset portfolios.
method Analyzes a multidimensional stochastic control problem leading to a matrix-valued BSDE with jumps and singular terminal condition.
result Proves uniqueness of solution, novel even in simplified settings.
Study finds non-adherence to schizophrenia meds leads to earlier adverse events.
problem Impact of medication non-adherence on adverse outcomes in schizophrenia patients.
method Survival analysis, causal inference methods (T-learner, S-learner, nearest neighbor matching), different amounts of longitudinal information.
result Non-adherence to schizophrenia meds advances adverse events by 1 to 4 months.
Predict drug-drug side effects using co-attention neural network.
problem Early detection of polypharmacy side effects in drug combinations.
method Co-attention neural network architecture for DDI prediction.
result State-of-the-art results on predicting side effects from drug types and structures.
New method identifies sepsis-related patient features in EMR data.
problem Identify sepsis-related patient features in EMR data.
method Linear multivariate Hawkes process model with ReLU link function, coupled with gradient-based method.
result Identifies several interpretable GC chains that precede sepsis.
Firms delay write-downs for adverse macroeconomic and industry outcomes but not for firm-specific issues.
problem Timeliness of write-downs for adverse macroeconomic and industry outcomes versus firm-specific issues.
method Comparative analysis of write-downs driven by macroeconomic and industry outcomes versus firm-specific outcomes.
result Firms delay write-downs for adverse macroeconomic and industry outcomes but not for firm-specific issues.
This paper improves bond market making by adjusting hit-ratios for client flow quality.
problem Economic misleading of raw hit-ratios in corporate bond market making.
method Stochastic-control framework with residual-quality-adjusted hit-ratio.
result Optimal quotes decompose into various components, improving service/economics frontier.
Transfer learning aims to improve learning in target domain by borrowing knowledge from a related but different source domain. To reduce the distribution shift between source and target domains, recent methods have focused on exploring invariant representations that have similar distributions across domains. However, w…
Lapse-supported life insurance exacerbates adverse selection risks.
problem Lapse-supported life insurance increases adverse selection costs.
method Modeling 'Term to 100' contracts and analyzing three methods of managing lapse surplus.
result Adverse selection losses can be almost unlimited under certain conditions.
Sparse rewards with different magnitudes speed up learning in model-based reinforcement learning.
problem Speeding up learning in model-based reinforcement learning methods.
method Add uniformly sampled reward values to sparse binary rewards during training.
result Training can be more efficient and faster with less variability.
Enhances detection of adverse drug events using diverse healthcare record data.
problem Detecting adverse drug events from mixed data types in electronic health records.
method Aggregate diagnosis codes, drug codes, and lab measurements; use recursive feature selection.
result Significant improvement in AUC using additional features, statistically significant.
Study shows SEC crypto classification led to significant market reactions.
problem Impact of SEC classification of crypto assets as securities.
method Event study methodology focusing on explicitly named crypto assets.
result Significant adverse market reactions, with returns plummeting 12% over one week.
Cryptocurrency patterns stable across market caps, validated by microstructure theory.
problem Stable patterns in cryptocurrency microstructure across different market caps.
method Unified CatBoost modeling pipeline with time-series cross validation, validated by backtests.
result Feature rankings and partial effects are stable across assets despite heterogeneous liquidity and volatility.
We propose a limit order book (LOB) model with dynamics that account for both the impact of the most recent order and the shape of the LOB. We present an empirical analysis showing that the type of the last order significantly alters the submission rate of immediate future orders, even after accounting for the state of…
The paper explains credit decisions using Shapley decomposition for adverse actions.
problem Identifying predictors responsible for adverse credit decisions.
method Develops a simple and intuitive approach based on Shapley decomposition for models with low-order interactions.
result Shows the approach generalizes to Shapley decomposition and Baseline Shapley.
Polarimetric images enhance object detection in adverse weather conditions.
problem Object detection in road scenes is challenging in adverse weather conditions.
method Combining polarimetric imaging and deep learning.
result Polarimetry improves object detection by 20% to 50% compared to conventional RGB images.
Study shows informed traders harm market makers but price discovery benefits outweigh costs.
problem Informed traders' impact on market makers' profitability.
method Agent-based model with heterogeneous learning agents, multi-agent reinforcement learning.
result Informed market order flow is harmful when aggregate informedness is low but beneficial as it increases.
Developing an Agent-Based Model to Mitigate Adverse Selection in Uniswap v3 Liquidity Providers
problem Adverse selection in Uniswap v3 liquidity providers
method Agent-Based Model incorporating blockchain microstructure and volatility dynamics
result Dynamic fee schedules improve hedged Profit and Loss for liquidity providers
We consider the problem of learning fair decision systems in complex scenarios in which a sensitive attribute might affect the decision along both fair and unfair pathways. We introduce a causal approach to disregard effects along unfair pathways that simplifies and generalizes previous literature. Our method corrects …
Study Nash competition among dealers quoting prices to clients with unknown trading motives.
problem Adverse selection and inventory costs in dealer-client interactions.
method Analyzes one-shot Nash competition with unknown client type and inventory constraints.
result Unique symmetric Nash equilibrium exists and can be characterized by a nonlinear ODE.
This paper is split in three parts: first we use labelled trade data to exhibit how market participants accept or not transactions via limit orders as a function of liquidity imbalance; then we develop a theoretical stochastic control framework to provide details on how one can exploit his knowledge on liquidity imbala…
The paper introduces return parity for fairness in MDPs, addressing delayed and adverse effects.
problem Fairness in MDPs for dynamic domains with delayed and adverse effects.
method Proposes return parity, decomposes return disparity, and develops algorithms for state visitation distributional alignment.
result The proposed algorithms can successfully close the disparity gap while maintaining policy performance.
Detecting real-time price impact in algo trading
problem Identifying the impact of traders' actions on market prices
method Measuring timing synchronicity between trader actions and adverse market events
result Detecting price impact on a per-action basis
Single-image super-resolution (SISR) is a canonical problem with diverse applications. Leading methods like SRGAN produce images that contain various artifacts, such as high-frequency noise, hallucinated colours and shape distortions, which adversely affect the realism of the result. In this paper, we propose an altern…
AI traders learn to exploit meta-orders from slower traders, increasing their profits.
problem Adverse selection of medium-frequency traders by high-frequency AI agents.
method Reinforcement learning in a Hawkes LOB model, with impulse control and PPO.
result AI agents can learn to capitalize on meta-orders, increasing their profits.
Buyer--seller relationships among firms can be regarded as a longitudinal network in which the connectivity pattern evolves as each firm receives productivity shocks. Based on a data set describing the evolution of buyer--seller links among 55,608 firms over a decade and structural equation modeling, we find some evide…
MLHO predicts COVID-19 adverse outcomes using past medical records.
problem Predicting adverse outcomes after COVID-19 infection.
method Iterative feature and algorithm selection, sequential representation mining.
result Mean AUC ROC of 0.91 for mortality prediction.
TPSQRs model longitudinal event data, detecting ADRs from EHRs.
problem Detecting adverse drug reactions from longitudinal event data.
method Learned by estimating a collection of interrelated PSQRs, using Poisson pseudo-likelihood for estimation.
result TPSQRs effectively and efficiently recover ADR signals from EHRs.
Graph-based framework predicts ADR signals from clinical data.
problem Detecting ADRs in post-market surveillance using clinical data.
method Developed a Drug-disease graph with Graph Neural Network for ADR signal prediction.
result Improved AUROC and AUPRC performance (0.795 and 0.775) compared to other algorithms.
Study compares deep learning stock trading strategies in adverse market conditions.
problem Comparing deep learning models for stock trading performance in extreme market downturns.
method Reconstructed three deep learning models and compared their strategies through trading simulations.
result Deep learning models, especially LSTM, can mitigate losses in severe market downturns.
Price dynamics is analyzed in terms of a model which includes the possibility of effective forces due to trend followers or trend adverse strategies. The method is tested on the data of a minority-majority model and indeed it is capable of reconstructing the prevailing traders' strategies in a given time interval. Then…
Sunshine trading theory predicts lower execution costs and liquidity provision through explicit preannouncements, but evidence is scarce in traditional markets.
problem Adverse selection on liquidity provision
method Reconstructing metaorders and comparing them with visible TWAP executions
result Visible TWAPs face lower execution costs and leave a smaller permanent price impact compared to hidden metaorders.
PHASE predicts surgical complications from physiological signals.
problem Predicting adverse surgical outcomes from physiological signals.
method Self-supervised transfer learning for physiological signals.
result PHASE outperforms other approaches in predicting five surgical complications.
In a continuous-time setting where a risk-averse agent controls the drift of an output process driven by a Brownian motion, optimal contracts are linear in the terminal output; this result is well-known in a setting with moral hazard and -under stronger assumptions - adverse selection. We show that this result continue…
IMM uses imitation learning and predictive representation learning to improve market making strategies.
problem Challenges in training RL agents for multi-price level market making strategies.
method IMM combines RL and imitation learning, introducing effective state and action representations and a representation learning unit.
result IMM outperforms existing RL-based market making strategies in financial criteria.
Machine learning improves CAD management outcomes.
problem Current CAD guidelines do not account for patient-specific characteristics.
method Developed binary classifiers and regression models using patient data.
result Improved health outcomes by 24.11% compared to standard care.
A new framework detects adverse dataset shifts using outlier scores.
problem False alarms in dataset shift tests.
method Outlier scores to compare contamination rates at varying thresholds.
result Reduces the sensitivity to minor differences in predictive performance.
The study identifies patient subgroups with enhanced or diminished opioid treatment effects.
problem Lack of prescribing guidelines for opioids leading to adverse outcomes.
method Generative model using mixture distribution and sparsity to discover subgroups with treatment effects.
result Human-interpretable insights on subgroups with enhanced or diminished treatment effects.
Study liquidity provision in decentralized exchanges considering risk aversion and replication costs.
problem Economic viability of liquidity provision in decentralized exchanges (DEXs).
method Formulated strategic interactions as a sequential game with risk-averse LP, traders, and arbitrageurs.
result DEX liquidity depth is crucial for risk management, influenced by risk aversion and replication costs.
We prove optimal mechanisms for general contract spaces.
problem Optimal mechanism design under adverse selection and ambiguity.
method Existence proof for optimal mechanisms in general contract spaces.
result Centralized contracting is equivalent to delegated contracting.
With the increased availability of large databases of electronic health records (EHRs) comes the chance of enhancing health risks screening. Most post-marketing detections of adverse drug reaction (ADR) rely on physicians' spontaneous reports, leading to under reporting. To take up this challenge, we develop a scalable…
ResGCN detects anomalies in attributed networks by capturing sparsity and nonlinearity.
problem Detecting anomalous nodes in attributed networks.
method Attention-based deep residual modeling using Graph Convolutional Networks.
result ResGCN effectively detects anomalies in attributed networks.
JIT liquidity providers can sometimes reduce overall market liquidity by crowding out passive LPs.
problem JIT liquidity providers can reduce overall market liquidity by crowding out passive LPs.
method Game-theoretic model with asymmetrically informed agents to analyze JIT liquidity provision in blockchain-based decentralized exchanges.
result JIT LPs only provide liquidity to uninformed orders and crowd out passive LPs when order volume is not sufficiently elastic to pool depth, potentially reducing overall market liquidity.
Study optimizes market making in Chinese stock market with stochastic control and scenario analysis.
problem Limited research on market making in Chinese stock market.
method Optimal market making framework with exponential CARA utility function, accounting for market conditions and risks.
result Impact of volatility and stamp duty on market maker's profit and liquidity.
Recurring international financial crises have adverse socioeconomic effects and demand novel regulatory instruments or strategies for risk management and market stabilization. However, the complex web of market interactions often impedes rational decisions that would absolutely minimize the risk. Here we show that, for…
Instability and variability of Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) algorithms tend to adversely affect their performance. Averaged-DQN is a simple extension to the DQN algorithm, based on averaging previously learned Q-values estimates, which leads to a more stable training procedure and improved performance by reducing …
This paper solves optimal market making for multiple goods, including bundling, under adverse selection.
problem Designing optimal market making mechanisms for multiple goods and adverse selection.
method Formulated as an optimal transport problem with geometric constraints, using differentiable economics.
result Optimal market making mechanisms can exploit bundling to improve prices and accept payments in kind.
Paper proposes ensemble methods to prevent forgetting in neural networks.
problem Catastrophic forgetting in retraining neural networks.
method Gradient boosting and meta-learning approaches.
result Prevents forgetting in pre-trained neural network models.