A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
New method tackles MNAR missingness in domain adaptation.
We consider the problem of adaptation to the margin and to complexity in binary classification. We suggest an exponential weighting aggregation scheme. We use this aggregation procedure to construct classifiers which adapt automatically to margin and complexity. Two main examples are worked out in which adaptivity is a…
We present an adaptive approach for valuing the European call option on assets with stochastic volatility. The essential feature of the method is a reduction of uncertainty in latent volatility due to a Bayesian learning procedure. Starting from a discrete-time stochastic volatility model, we derive a recurrence equati…
Sampling from distributions to find the one with the largest mean arises in a broad range of applications, and it can be mathematically modeled as a multi-armed bandit problem in which each distribution is associated with an arm. This paper studies the sample complexity of identifying the best arm (largest mean) in a m…
AdaVol adapts QML for real-time GARCH volatility prediction.
We propose the Margin Adaptation for Generative Adversarial Networks (MAGANs) algorithm, a novel training procedure for GANs to improve stability and performance by using an adaptive hinge loss function. We estimate the appropriate hinge loss margin with the expected energy of the target distribution, and derive princi…
Combines control variates and adaptive importance sampling for Monte Carlo integration.
APT-Gen generates tasks to help RL learn in hard problems.
New method estimates hidden binary mixture model centers efficiently.
A classical condition for fast learning rates is the margin condition, first introduced by Mammen and Tsybakov. We tackle in this paper the problem of adaptivity to this condition in the context of model selection, in a general learning framework. Actually, we consider a weaker version of this condition that allows one…
Adapts Neyman-Pearson classification for both source and target distribution shifts.
The paper offers a unified approach to the study of three locally adaptive estimation methods in the context of univariate time series from both theoretical and empirical points of view. A general procedure for the computation of critical values is given. The underlying model encompasses all distributions from the expo…
Gonogo offers tools for sensitivity experiments in R.
Sampling is a fundamental problem in computer science and statistics. However, for a given task and stream, it is often not possible to choose good sampling probabilities in advance. We derive a general framework for adaptively changing the sampling probabilities via a collection of thresholds.In general, adaptive samp…
We introduce a new recursive aggregation procedure called Bernstein Online Aggregation (BOA). The exponential weights include an accuracy term and a second order term that is a proxy of the quadratic variation as in Hazan and Kale (2010). This second term stabilizes the procedure that is optimal in different senses. We…
This paper proposes a new method for estimating sparse precision matrices in the high dimensional setting. It has been popular to study fast computation and adaptive procedures for this problem. We propose a novel approach, called Sparse Column-wise Inverse Operator, to address these two issues. We analyze an adaptive …
A Kernel Adaptive Metropolis-Hastings algorithm is introduced, for the purpose of sampling from a target distribution with strongly nonlinear support. The algorithm embeds the trajectory of the Markov chain into a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS), such that the feature space covariance of the samples informs the…
This paper presents a new approach to non-parametric cluster analysis called Adaptive Weights Clustering (AWC). The idea is to identify the clustering structure by checking at different points and for different scales on departure from local homogeneity. The proposed procedure describes the clustering structure in term…
New estimator achieves minimax optimal risk in transfer learning.
Recent breakthrough results in compressed sensing (CS) have established that many high dimensional objects can be accurately recovered from a relatively small number of non- adaptive linear projection observations, provided that the objects possess a sparse representation in some basis. Subsequent efforts have shown th…
We derive new theoretical results on the properties of the adaptive least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (adaptive lasso) for time series regression models. In particular, we investigate the question of how to conduct finite sample inference on the parameters given an adaptive lasso model for some fixed valu…
The concordance probability or C-index is a popular measure to capture the discriminatory ability of a regression model. In this article, the definition of this measure is adapted to the specific needs of the frequency and severity model, typically used during the technical pricing of a non-life insurance product. Due …
The paper describes a method to infer the signal-to-noise ratio in portfolio optimization.
We consider the problem of discrete-time signal denoising, focusing on a specific family of non-linear convolution-type estimators. Each such estimator is associated with a time-invariant filter which is obtained adaptively, by solving a certain convex optimization problem. Adaptive convolution-type estimators were dem…
New approach to adaptively select bandwidths in nonparametric regression.
New algorithms improve estimation of treatment effects.
M-L2O adapts fast to new tasks by self-adapting during test-time.
SIREN protocol corrects optimistic winner's scores in LLM evaluation.
In this work we aim to obtain computationally-efficient uncertainty estimates with deep networks. For this, we propose a modified knowledge distillation procedure that achieves state-of-the-art uncertainty estimates both for in and out-of-distribution samples. Our contributions include a) demonstrating and adapting to …
Locally adaptive clustering for tree delineation.
New method tracks significant arm switches to improve bandit algorithms.
Study optimizes best-arm identification with minimax and Bayes strategies.
Domain adaptation has become a prominent problem setting in machine learning and related fields. This review asks the question: how can a classifier learn from a source domain and generalize to a target domain? We present a categorization of approaches, divided into, what we refer to as, sample-based, feature-based and…
Unified algorithm for optimizing rewards in stochastic path problems.
SALSA automatically adjusts learning rates in stochastic gradient methods.
Training a Generative Adversarial Networks (GAN) for a new domain from scratch requires an enormous amount of training data and days of training time. To this end, we propose DAWSON, a Domain Adaptive FewShot Generation FrameworkFor GANs based on meta-learning. A major challenge of applying meta-learning GANs is to obt…
We show that the two-stage adaptive Lasso procedure (Zou, 2006) is consistent for high-dimensional model selection in linear and Gaussian graphical models. Our conditions for consistency cover more general situations than those accomplished in previous work: we prove that restricted eigenvalue conditions (Bickel et al.…
Random forests are powerful non-parametric regression method but are severely limited in their usage in the presence of randomly censored observations, and naively applied can exhibit poor predictive performance due to the incurred biases. Based on a local adaptive representation of random forests, we develop its regre…
To analyse a very large data set containing lengthy variables, we adopt a sequential estimation idea and propose a parallel divide-and-conquer method. We conduct several conventional sequential estimation procedures separately, and properly integrate their results while maintaining the desired statistical properties. A…
End-to-end analysis of SGD for STL with adaptive sub-sampling.
Adaptive Monte Carlo methods are recent variance reduction techniques. In this work, we propose a mathematical setting which greatly relaxes the assumptions needed by for the adaptive importance sampling techniques presented by Vazquez-Abad and Dufresne, Fu and Su, and Arouna. We establish the convergence and asymptoti…
From scientific experiments to online A/B testing, the previously observed data often affects how future experiments are performed, which in turn affects which data will be collected. Such adaptivity introduces complex correlations between the data and the collection procedure. In this paper, we prove that when the dat…
Random forests are powerful non-parametric regression method but are severely limited in their usage in the presence of randomly censored observations, and naively applied can exhibit poor predictive performance due to the incurred biases. Based on a local adaptive representation of random forests, we develop its regre…
Adaptive sampling results in dramatic improvements in the recovery of sparse signals in white Gaussian noise. A sequential adaptive sampling-and-refinement procedure called Distilled Sensing (DS) is proposed and analyzed. DS is a form of multi-stage experimental design and testing. Because of the adaptive nature of the…
Principal component regression (PCR) is a two-stage procedure that selects some principal components and then constructs a regression model regarding them as new explanatory variables. Note that the principal components are obtained from only explanatory variables and not considered with the response variable. To addre…
New method calibrates classifier probabilities with guaranteed coverage.
Paper fine-tunes LLMs using user edits, unifying preference, supervision, and reward feedback.
Research shows minimal communication limits adaptive function estimation rates.