Paper tackles online learning with interval regret, achieving adaptive bounds.
problem Non-stationary online learning over time intervals.
method Two-layer online ensemble structure with gradient variation.
result Achieves strong theoretical guarantees with adaptive bounds.
New method combines HQR and WACI for better time series prediction intervals.
problem Challenges in creating reliable prediction intervals for time series forecasting.
method Combining Heteroscedastic Quantile Regression (HQR) with Width-Adaptive Conformal Inference (WACI).
result Combined approach meets or surpasses typical benchmarks for validity and efficiency.
CONTINA provides adaptive confidence intervals for traffic demand prediction.
problem Uncertainty in future traffic demand predictions and the need for valid confidence intervals.
method Adaptive confidence interval method that adjusts based on deployment errors.
result Valid confidence intervals with shorter lengths and theoretical coverage guarantee.
Skew-adaptive method improves prediction intervals for regression.
problem Improving prediction intervals for regression models, especially in cases of skewness and varying scales.
method Develops a skew-adaptive extension of split conformal prediction using an asymmetric interval family and gauge approach.
result Preserves marginal validity and adapts to local scale and skewness, with efficiency gains over existing methods.
New method makes CP intervals locally adaptive using trainable transformations.
problem Making Conformal Prediction intervals locally adaptive.
method Defining a trainable change of variables φX(A) that depends on object attributes X. result Locally adaptive prediction intervals with guaranteed marginal validity and variable sizes.
BC-ACI corrects time series forecast bias, improving prediction intervals.
problem Persistent bias in time series forecasts leads to overly conservative prediction intervals.
method Augments ACI with an EWM estimate of forecast bias to correct nonconformity scores and re-center intervals.
result Reduces Winkler interval scores by 13-17% under distribution shifts, improving calibration.
New confidence intervals improve treatment effect estimation in randomized experiments.
problem Improving confidence intervals for treatment effects in randomized experiments.
method Systematic exploitation of negative dependence or variance adaptivity.
result Achieved nonasymptotic confidence intervals with the same effective sample size as asymptotic ones.
Improved conformalized quantile regression for adaptive prediction intervals.
problem Lack of adaptiveness in the conformal step of conformalized quantile regression.
method Cluster explanatory variables by permutation importance and apply k conformal steps.
result Improved prediction intervals are more adaptive to heteroscedasticity.
A new algorithm reduces inference error in adaptive contextual bandits.
problem Challenges in statistical inference for adaptive contextual bandits.
method Proposes a regularized EXP4 algorithm that satisfies the Lai-Wei stability condition.
result Valid Wald-type confidence intervals for linear functionals can be achieved without the price of adaptivity.
Proposes DR-ACI for causal effect intervals with temporal dependence.
problem Causal effect intervals under temporal dependence.
method Doubly robust adaptive conformal inference (DR-ACI).
result Constructs prediction intervals for causal effects.
Adaptive MAB algorithms handle composite, anonymous feedback without reward interval knowledge.
problem Multi-armed bandit with composite and anonymous feedback, especially without reward interval size knowledge.
method Proposed adaptive algorithms for stochastic and adversarial cases, without reward interval knowledge.
result First algorithm for adversarial case handling non-oblivious adversary and unknown reward interval size.
Confidence intervals based on penalized maximum likelihood estimators such as the LASSO, adaptive LASSO, and hard-thresholding are analyzed. In the known-variance case, the finite-sample coverage properties of such intervals are determined and it is shown that symmetric intervals are the shortest. The length of the sho…
Proposes adaptive method for classifying interval-valued time series.
problem Lack of classification methods for interval-valued time series.
method Represent intervals as images, classify using CNN, optimize coefficients with ADMM.
result Validated through simulations and real data, outperforming point-valued methods.
Paper proposes a 1-bit mean estimation method with near-optimal sample complexity.
problem Distributed mean estimation with 1-bit communication constraints.
method Randomized and sequentially-chosen interval queries to estimate mean.
result Sample complexity bound matches minimax lower bound with logarithmic factors.
This work improves adaptive conformal prediction using self-supervised learning.
problem Improving the adaptability of conformal prediction intervals.
method Train an auxiliary model with a self-supervised pretext task on top of an existing predictive model and use the self-supervised error as an additional feature to estimate nonconformity scores.
result Empirically demonstrates the benefit of additional information in improving the efficiency (width), deficit, and excess of conformal prediction intervals.
New online conformal prediction methods minimize strongly adaptive regret and achieve near-optimal coverage.
problem Uncertainty quantification in online settings with changing data distributions.
method Developed new online conformal prediction methods that minimize strongly adaptive regret.
result Achieve near-optimal strongly adaptive regret and approximately valid coverage.
CLAPS improves conformal regression by adaptively scaling interval widths based on last-layer Laplace uncertainty.
problem Lack of adaptive interval width scaling in conformal regression for heterogeneous inputs.
method CLAPS uses heteroscedastic last-layer Laplace uncertainty to adaptively scale interval widths, combining aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties.
result CLAPS provides competitive interval efficiency with nominal-level coverage, reducing to aleatoric scaling as epistemic uncertainty decreases.
TDistNNs improve prediction intervals for neural networks by using t-distributions.
problem Traditional neural networks provide only point estimates, lacking predictive uncertainty.
method TDistNNs generate t-distributed outputs with adjustable degrees of freedom, enhancing robustness to non-Gaussian data.
result TDistNNs produce narrower prediction intervals with proper coverage compared to Gaussian-based PNNs.
DeepAries optimizes rebalancing intervals and asset allocations for better portfolio performance.
problem Fixed rebalancing intervals lead to unnecessary transactions and poor risk-adjusted returns.
method Adaptive deep reinforcement learning with Transformer state encoder and PPO.
result DeepAries outperforms traditional strategies in risk-adjusted returns, transaction costs, and drawdowns.
The paper develops adaptive confidence intervals for Efron's Gaussian two-groups model with unknown contamination.
problem Developing robust uncertainty quantification for Efron's Gaussian two-groups model with unknown contamination fraction.
method The approach involves Fourier-based certification procedures to find minimax-optimal adaptive confidence intervals.
result The minimax-optimal length of adaptive confidence intervals is polynomially worse than when contamination fraction is known.
LCMQR improves prediction intervals by adapting to local heteroscedasticity.
problem Efficient and adaptive prediction intervals for local heteroscedasticity.
method LCMQR combines multi-quantile information with kernel-based localization.
result LCMQR constructs tighter intervals than prior methods, especially in heterogeneous environments.
Novel method for time-series prediction with tighter confidence intervals.
problem Improving prediction intervals for time-series data.
method Kernel-based Optimally Weighted Conformal Prediction Intervals (KOWCPI) using adaptive weights.
result KOWCPI achieves narrower confidence intervals with guaranteed coverage.
We introduce a method which enables a recurrent dynamics model to be temporally abstract. Our approach, which we call Adaptive Skip Intervals (ASI), is based on the observation that in many sequential prediction tasks, the exact time at which events occur is irrelevant to the underlying objective. Moreover, in many sit…
We investigate online convex optimization in changing environments, and choose the adaptive regret as the performance measure. The goal is to achieve a small regret over every interval so that the comparator is allowed to change over time. Different from previous works that only utilize the convexity condition, this pa…
This paper improves prediction intervals for heteroskedastic regression.
problem Adaptive prediction intervals for heteroskedastic regression.
method Normalized and Mondrian conformal prediction methods.
result Conditional validity of chosen conformal predictors related to data-generating assumptions.
Adaptive method improves prediction intervals with global coverage guarantees and local error distribution.
problem Global coverage guarantees of conformal regression are often violated by local error distributions.
method Adaptive Conformal Regression with Jackknife+ Rescaled Scores
result Improves local coverage without sacrificing global coverage, especially in low-data regimes.
Proposes online debiasing estimators for adaptive linear regression.
problem Adaptive data collection leads to non-normal asymptotic behavior in simple methods.
method Online debiasing estimators that correct distributional anomalies.
result Asymptotic normality and minimax lower bound for proposed estimators.
A new method for adaptive experiments improves inference.
problem Current inference methods for adaptive experiments are weak and asymptotic.
method Simulation-based inference using optimistic simulations.
result Our method achieves better coverage and narrower intervals.
Two-step conformal prediction method for adaptive bounding box uncertainties in multi-object detection.
problem Quantifying predictive uncertainty for multi-object detection in safety-critical applications.
method Developed a two-step conformal prediction approach to propagate uncertainty in predicted class labels into bounding box uncertainties, ensuring coverage for incorrectly classified objects.
result Desired coverage levels are satisfied with practically tight predictive uncertainty intervals on real-world datasets.
CADR estimator improves inference for contextual bandit data.
problem Valid inference on contextual bandit data.
method CADR estimator for policy value, addressing adaptive data collection challenges.
result CADR provides correct coverage of confidence intervals.
CASCADE improves uncertainty communication in Parkinson's disease medication management.
problem Uncertainty in clinical decision-making for Parkinson's disease patients.
method CASCADE uses a novel conformal prediction framework to adaptively scale prediction intervals based on classification uncertainty.
result CASCADE produces more efficient and robust prediction intervals for Parkinson's disease patients.
Data-driven method for error estimation without needing class complexity.
problem Constructing confidence intervals for a class of estimates.
method Data-driven approach to derive high-probability upper bounds on maximum error.
result Method naturally adapts to unknown correlation structures and works for finite and infinite classes.
Motivated by the growing popularity of variants of the Wasserstein distance in statistics and machine learning, we study statistical inference for the Sliced Wasserstein distance--an easily computable variant of the Wasserstein distance. Specifically, we construct confidence intervals for the Sliced Wasserstein distanc…
We design a general framework for answering adaptive statistical queries that focuses on providing explicit confidence intervals along with point estimates. Prior work in this area has either focused on providing tight confidence intervals for specific analyses, or providing general worst-case bounds for point estimate…
TCP provides well-calibrated prediction intervals for nonstationary time series.
problem Nonstationary time series forecasting with well-calibrated prediction intervals.
method Temporal Conformal Prediction (TCP) couples a modern quantile forecaster with a rolling split-conformal calibration layer.
result TCP achieves near-nominal coverage, providing slightly wider intervals than Historical Simulation.
Corrects bias in LLM-as-a-judge evaluations using adaptive calibration.
problem Bias in LLM evaluations due to imperfect sensitivity and specificity.
method Plug-in framework with confidence intervals accounting for test and calibration dataset uncertainties.
result LML-based evaluation yields more reliable estimates than human-only evaluation.
New method creates adaptive prediction intervals for regression models.
problem Need to quantify uncertainty in regression model predictions.
method Regression trees and Random Forests trained on conformity scores.
result Superior scalability and performance compared to baselines.
Near-optimal confidence intervals for bounded data.
problem Online inference for sequential decision problems like A/B testing.
method Utilizing Bentkus' concentration results to improve on existing methods.
result Near-optimal confidence intervals confirmed favorable in synthetic and practical applications.
The paper improves prediction intervals for non-parametric regression using histograms.
problem Computing accurate prediction intervals for non-parametric regression models.
method Uses conditional histograms to estimate conditional distributions and compute shortest prediction intervals.
result The method provides prediction intervals with provable marginal coverage and asymptotic conditional coverage.
We develop and evaluate tolerance interval methods for dynamic treatment regimes (DTRs) that can provide more detailed prognostic information to patients who will follow an estimated optimal regime. Although the problem of constructing confidence intervals for DTRs has been extensively studied, prediction and tolerance…
We address challenges in estimating parameters from adaptively collected data.
problem Estimating parameters from data collected adaptively leads to non-normal asymptotic distributions.
method We develop semi-parametric estimators that account for adaptivity in data collection.
result Our estimators are asymptotically normal under certain conditions.
Extends Fisher's Discriminant Analysis for interval-valued data.
problem Classifying entities represented by intervals and histograms.
method Adapts Fisher's Discriminant Analysis using Moore's interval arithmetic and Mallows' distance.
result Discriminant directions for interval-valued data are numerically maximized.
CoCP optimizes prediction intervals by jointly learning center and radius, improving efficiency and coverage.
problem Inefficient conformal prediction intervals under heteroscedasticity and skewness.
method Co-optimization framework that learns center and radius through alternating optimization steps.
result CoCP yields consistently shorter intervals and state-of-the-art conditional coverage diagnostics.
SPACR trains uncertainty-aware regressors directly within a single pass, improving efficiency and validity.
problem Training uncertainty-aware regressors while maintaining efficiency and validity.
method Joint optimization of efficiency and validity during training.
result SPACR consistently provides tighter intervals and better coverage-efficiency trade-offs compared to standard CP and DOICR.
Adaptive classification methods ensure correct prediction intervals.
problem Developing methods to ensure correct prediction intervals for classification problems.
method Specialized conformal inference techniques combining cross-validation+, jackknife+, and a novel conformity score.
result The methods provide guaranteed approximate conditional coverage for complex data distributions.
CAP algorithm controls FCR in online selective prediction.
problem Online predictive tasks with temporal multiplicity and FCR control.
method CAP framework with adaptive pick rule and calibration set construction.
result CAP achieves exact selection-conditional coverage guarantee and FCR control.
Develops a simple method for creating private confidence intervals.
problem Creating private confidence intervals for parametric estimation.
method Parametric bootstrap approach to construct confidence intervals.
result The parametric bootstrap provides consistent and effective confidence intervals.
PPI++ uses machine learning predictions to improve inference from small datasets.
problem Efficient inference from small labeled datasets with high-quality predictions.
method Adapts prediction-powered inference (PPI) to compute confidence sets for any parameter dimensionality.
result Improves classical intervals using only labeled data, always yielding better results.