A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Unified framework for adaptive connection sampling in GNNs improves performance and robustness.
We describe an end-to-end real-time S&P futures trading system. Inner-shell stochastic nonlinear dynamic models are developed, and Canonical Momenta Indicators (CMI) are derived from a fitted Lagrangian used by outer-shell trading models dependent on these indicators. Recursive and adaptive optimization using Adaptive …
This paper improves volatility forecasting using dynamic subset selection in genetic programming.
Computational models in fields such as computational neuroscience are often evaluated via stochastic simulation or numerical approximation. Fitting these models implies a difficult optimization problem over complex, possibly noisy parameter landscapes. Bayesian optimization (BO) has been successfully applied to solving…
In quantitative finance, we often fit a parametric semimartingale model to asset prices. To ensure our model is correct, we must then perform goodness-of-fit tests. In this paper, we give a new goodness-of-fit test for volatility-like processes, which is easily applied to a variety of semimartingale models. In each cas…
FVI method calculates bicausal OT with neural networks, outperforming other methods.
Paper develops a minimax optimal test for goodness-of-fit using kernel Stein discrepancy.
We extend the adaptive regression spline model by incorporating saturation, the natural requirement that a function extend as a constant outside a certain range. We fit saturating splines to data using a convex optimization problem over a space of measures, which we solve using an efficient algorithm based on the condi…
The paper studies efficient Hessian fitting methods for stochastic optimization.
Recently we proposed a general, ensemble-based feature engineering wrapper (FEW) that was paired with a number of machine learning methods to solve regression problems. Here, we adapt FEW for supervised classification and perform a thorough analysis of fitness and survival methods within this framework. Our tests demon…
A new test method improves goodness-of-fit tests for copulas.
Paper uses DRL to improve volatility fitting in equity derivatives.
The goal of this paper is to design image classification systems that, after an initial multi-task training phase, can automatically adapt to new tasks encountered at test time. We introduce a conditional neural process based approach to the multi-task classification setting for this purpose, and establish connections …
Discrete structure rules for validating molecular structures are usually limited to fulfillment of the octet rule or similar simple deterministic heuristics. We propose a model, inspired by language modeling from natural language processing, with the ability to learn from a collection of undirected molecular graphs, en…
A new sequential test for unnormalized densities.
We study the performance of the adaptive construction scheme for a Bayesian inference on the Quadratic GARCH model which introduces the asymmetry in time series dynamics. In the adaptive construction scheme a proposal density in the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm is constructed adaptively by changing the parameters of t…
Develops monotone tree-based GAMI models using XGBoost.
We present an adaptive approach to the construction of Gaussian process surrogates for Bayesian inference with expensive-to-evaluate forward models. Our method relies on the fully Bayesian approach to training Gaussian process models and utilizes the expected improvement idea from Bayesian global optimization. We adapt…
This paper addresses the use of neural networks for the estimation of treatment effects from observational data. Generally, estimation proceeds in two stages. First, we fit models for the expected outcome and the probability of treatment (propensity score) for each unit. Second, we plug these fitted models into a downs…
We study the convergence of the predictive surface of regression trees and forests. To support our analysis we introduce a notion of adaptive concentration for regression trees. This approach breaks tree training into a model selection phase in which we pick the tree splits, followed by a model fitting phase where we f…
The Black-Scholes theory of option pricing has been considered for many years as an important but very approximate zeroth-order description of actual market behavior. We generalize the functional form of the diffusion of these systems and also consider multi-factor models including stochastic volatility. Daily Eurodoll…
In many applications of supervised learning, multiple classification or regression outputs have to be predicted jointly. We consider several extensions of gradient boosting to address such problems. We first propose a straightforward adaptation of gradient boosting exploiting multiple output regression trees as base le…
R package for online forecasting in various fields.
Many problems on signal processing reduce to nonparametric function estimation. We propose a new methodology, piecewise convex fitting (PCF), and give a two-stage adaptive estimate. In the first stage, the number and location of the change points is estimated using strong smoothing. In the second stage, a constrained s…
FONT clusters patients across health systems with privacy and efficiency.
Adaptive uncertainty quantification improves black-box model predictions in generative AI.
We consider first order gradient methods for effectively optimizing a composite objective in the form of a sum of smooth and, potentially, non-smooth functions. We present accelerated and adaptive gradient methods, called FLAG and FLARE, which can offer the best of both worlds. They can achieve the optimal convergence …
Unified approach to linear regression using covariance fitting for optimal weights.
GUESS improves surrogate model accuracy with adaptive sampling.
Investors in Target Date Funds are automatically switched from high risk to low risk assets as their retirements approach. Such funds have become very popular, but our analysis brings into question the rationale for them. Based on both a model with parameters fitted to historical returns and on bootstrap resampling, we…
The paper proposes a new algorithm for the high-dimensional financial data -- the Groupwise Interpretable Basis Selection (GIBS) algorithm, to estimate a new Adaptive Multi-Factor (AMF) asset pricing model, implied by the recently developed Generalized Arbitrage Pricing Theory, which relaxes the convention that the num…
New method speeds up NIR spectroscopy calibration by 400x.
Adapts attention to supervised learning for personalized predictions.
Paper tackles online multi-source domain adaptation using Gaussian mixtures and dictionary learning.
KBB algorithm reduces sample complexity for policy evaluation in general state spaces.
Evolution and learning are two of the fundamental mechanisms by which life adapts in order to survive and to transcend limitations. These biological phenomena inspired successful computational methods such as evolutionary algorithms and deep learning. Evolution relies on random mutations and on random genetic recombina…
Paper proposes a new DR estimator for adaptive experiments with improved performance.
SplitWise enhances stepwise regression by adaptively encoding numeric predictors into binary features.
We propose a method for efficient training of Q-functions for continuous-state Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) such that the traces of the resulting policies satisfy a given Linear Temporal Logic (LTL) property. LTL, a modal logic, can express a wide range of time-dependent logical properties (including "safety") that…
Develops a new method to model overlapping asymmetric datasets effectively.
Adaptive wave model for financial option pricing is proposed, as a high-complexity alternative to the standard Black--Scholes model. The new option-pricing model, representing a controlled Brownian motion, includes two wave-type approaches: nonlinear and quantum, both based on (adaptive form of) the Schrödinger equatio…
FiT combines transfer and meta-learning for efficient few-shot image classification.
Study reviews tree-based methods and introduces new ensemble strategies.
Deep learning for integrating diverse clinical measurements.
BOFFIN TTS optimizes hyper-parameters for new speaker adaptation.
Improves predictive algorithm performance with domain adaptation.
DANCE improves prediction set efficiency for deep learning models.
With today's abundant streams of data, the only constant we can rely on is change. For stream classification algorithms, it is necessary to adapt to concept drift. This can be achieved by monitoring the model error, and triggering counter measures as changes occur. In this paper, we propose a drift detection mechanism …