Framework improves classifier calibration under differential privacy for domain shift.
problem Improving classifier calibration under domain shift with privacy constraints.
method Differential privacy framework for adapting recalibration algorithms.
result Novel accuracy temperature scaling algorithm outperforms existing methods on private datasets.
This paper introduces minimum-risk recalibration for probabilistic classifiers, improving their reliability and accuracy.
problem Improving the reliability and accuracy of probabilistic classifiers.
method Minimum-risk recalibration within the MSE decomposition framework, analyzing UMB method and label shift adaptation.
result The optimal number of bins for UMB scales with n1/3, resulting in a risk bound of approximately O(n−2/3). New method detects global factors near BBP phase transition in high-dimensional data.
problem Detecting the number of global factors in noisy high-dimensional correlation matrices.
method Iterative Global Factor (IGF) algorithm combining adaptive edge recalibration and PR delocalization filter.
result IGF algorithm successfully detects global factors near BBP transition, improving over eigenvalue-only methods.
Proposes isotonic recalibration for insurance pricing to ensure auto-calibration under low signal-to-noise ratio.
problem Ensuring auto-calibration in insurance pricing models to prevent cross-financing.
method Applies isotonic recalibration to regression models to achieve auto-calibration.
result Isotonically recalibrated regression functions have low complexity under low signal-to-noise ratio.
Paper proposes faster adaptation to distribution shifts in online settings.
problem Violation of exchangeability assumption in evolving data environments.
method Online conformal inference with retrospective adjustment.
result Faster adaptation to distributional shifts demonstrated through numerical studies.
The paper analyzes recalibration methods for binary classifiers under distribution shift.
problem Recalibrating binary classifiers to match a target prior probability.
method Analysis of distribution shift assumptions and proposal of new recalibration methods.
result QMM methods provide conservative results for risk weights functions.
Optimizes predictions by recalibrating online forecasts with minimal error.
problem Tackles the challenge of recalibrating online predictions to be more accurate.
method Uses an imbalanced extension of the Blackwell approachability reduction framework to achieve (ε,ε2)-recalibration. result Achieves (ε,ε2)-recalibration for Lipschitz proper losses in T≈ε−3 rounds. New dataset improves EMG gesture recognition accuracy.
problem Discrepancy between offline and online EMG gesture recognition accuracy.
method Recorded dynamic dataset using virtual reality and EMG-independent controller.
result TADANN algorithm consistently outperforms fine-tuning for long-term gesture recognition.
A new framework improves VaR recalibration by balancing reliance on imperfect volatility proxies.
problem How to balance reliance on imperfect volatility proxies in one-sided VaR recalibration.
method Proxy-reliance control framework that interpolates between constant-shift and proxy-scaled corrections.
result Lower or intermediate proxy reliance can outperform fully proxy-scaled recalibration in stressed left-tail VaR control.
New method calibrates machine learning models with theoretical guarantees.
problem Lack of theoretical guarantees for recalibration in multiclass classification.
method PAC-Bayes analysis for generalization error in calibration.
result First optimizable upper bound for generalization error in calibration.
New method recalibrates VaR for option books, reducing forecast errors.
problem Inaccurate VaR forecasts due to missing operational choices.
method Marking-aware sequential VaR recalibration targeting normalized book-level loss.
result Sequential VaR recalibration improves VaR performance across different markets and options.
This paper introduces a novel recalibration method for multivariate forecasts.
problem Multivariate calibration for potentially misspecified models.
method Local mappings between marginal probability integral transform values and observed space, using K-nearest neighbors or normalizing flows.
result Demonstrated effectiveness on currency exchange rate and childhood malnutrition data.
Proposes MCLLO for assessing and recalibrating multiclass probability predictions.
problem Limited multicategory recalibration methods for assessing and comparing model calibration.
method MCLLO recalibration method that assesses calibration without model access and is easy to interpret.
result MCLLO outperforms other methods in simulations and real-world case studies.
3D ConvNets improved with Project & Excite for medical imaging segmentation.
problem Improving segmentation performance in 3D medical imaging.
method Proposed Project & Excite (PE) modules for 3D F-CNNs, extending 2D recalibration methods.
result Project & Excite modules boost segmentation performance up to 0.3 in Dice Score.
This paper addresses recalibration issues in hedging callable assets, proposing a new risk-adjusted approach.
problem The mismatch between dynamic hedging theory and practice due to daily recalibration.
method Extends HVA model risk approach to callable assets, focusing on recalibration and model risks.
result Model risk reserves adjusted for exercise decisions may significantly exceed basic valuation differences.
New models capture dynamic derivatives pricing with efficient simulations.
problem Capturing dynamic features of derivatives' term structures.
method Machine learning techniques to store and efficiently simulate complex drift terms.
result First efficient dynamic term structure models.
Bayesian logistic regression improves clinical risk prediction models over time.
problem Improving clinical risk prediction models after deployment to adapt to temporal shifts.
method Bayesian logistic regression (BLR) and Markov variant (MarBLR) for online recalibration and revision of prediction models.
result BLR and MarBLR consistently outperform static models and other online revision methods, improving average AUC and calibration index.
We focus on two particular aspects of model risk: the inability of a chosen model to fit observed market prices at a given point in time (calibration error) and the model risk due to recalibration of model parameters (in contradiction to the model assumptions). In this context, we follow the approach of Glasserman and …
New bin-wise scaling methods improve prediction uncertainty calibration for machine learning.
problem Improving prediction uncertainty calibration for machine learning regression.
method Adaptations of Binwise Variance Scaling (BVS) with alternative loss functions and feature-based binning.
result Improved adaptivity and consistency in prediction uncertainty calibration.
Overconfidence and underconfidence in machine learning classifiers is measured by calibration: the degree to which the probabilities predicted for each class match the accuracy of the classifier on that prediction. How one measures calibration remains a challenge: expected calibration error, the most popular metric, ha…
Study evaluates uncertainty in BP estimation from PPG signals under domain shift.
problem Uncertainty quantification in healthcare, especially for cuffless BP estimation.
method Compared deep ensembles, Monte Carlo dropout, and various recalibration techniques.
result Deep ensembles provide stronger robustness under domain shift.
The paper enhances representations to show left-orderability of certain 3-manifold groups.
problem Left-orderability of 3-manifold groups using enhanced representations.
method Recalibration of Calegari and Dunfield's flipping construction for $\mbox{Homeo}_+(S^1)$-representations.
result Branched covers of links are left-orderable, generalizing known results.
Proposes a method to generate multivariate prediction intervals for random forests.
problem Uncertainty estimates for iterative design of experiments with multiple correlated model outputs.
method Recalibrated bootstrap method for bagged models.
result Significantly decreases the number of iterations required for satisfactory candidate in sequential learning problems.
Adaptive Quantum Conformal Prediction improves reliability of quantum machine learning predictions.
problem Quantum machine learning lacks robust uncertainty quantification methods.
method Adaptive Conformal Inference applied to quantum conformal prediction to maintain validity over time.
result AQCP achieves target coverage levels and is more stable than standard quantum conformal prediction.
We study option pricing and hedging with uncertainty about a Black-Scholes reference model which is dynamically recalibrated to the market price of a liquidly traded vanilla option. For dynamic trading in the underlying asset and this vanilla option, delta-vega hedging is asymptotically optimal in the limit for small u…
AMS improves video inference on edge devices by adapting a small model with online knowledge distillation.
problem High computation cost of Deep Neural Networks for real-time video inference on edge devices.
method AMS uses a remote server to continually train and adapt a small model on edge devices, using online knowledge distillation from a large model.
result 0.4--17.8 percent mean Intersection-over-Union improvement in video semantic segmentation.
Unified calibration metrics improve forecast sharpness and accuracy.
problem Improving the sharpness of probabilistic forecasts while maintaining calibration.
method Kernel-based calibration metrics that unify and generalize existing methods for classification and regression.
result Enhanced calibration, sharpness, and decision-making across various tasks.
Extends FC-RAG to anytime-valid sequential coverage for language model swarms.
problem Maintain distribution-free coverage for a swarm of weak language models over time.
method Introduces Anytime-FC-RAG, a sequential extension with a summable calibration-deviation budget.
result Achieves time-uniform alarm validity and safety under predictable adaptive control.
This work evaluates and benchmarks calibration metrics for data-driven regression models.
problem Conflicting results from different calibration metrics make it hard to compare and interpret model performance.
method Systematically extracted and benchmarked 14 regression calibration metrics across various data types and recalibration methods.
result Many metrics disagree on the same recalibration result, highlighting the need for careful metric selection.
Edge devices adapt pre-trained models to local data without backpropagation.
problem Adapting pre-trained models to edge devices' local data distributions.
method Feed-forward latent domain adaptation using cross-attention.
result Consistent improvements over ERM baselines and domain-supervised adaptation.
The paper introduces a spline-based method for calibrating neural networks.
problem Ensuring neural network outputs are reliable for safety-critical applications.
method Approximating the empirical cumulative distribution function using splines to map network outputs to calibrated probabilities.
result The spline-based recalibration consistently outperforms existing methods on calibration measures.
New method turns any regression model into a calibrated probabilistic model.
problem Calibration and sharpness of uncertainty estimates in regression models.
method Modular Conformal Calibration (MCC) framework.
result MCC algorithms achieve near-perfect calibration and improved sharpness.
The paper calibrates uncertainty in dropout variational inference models.
problem Miscalibration of model uncertainty in dropout variational inference.
method Logit scaling methods are extended to recalibrate model uncertainty.
result Logit scaling reduces miscalibration, improving reliability of predictions.
A framework for real-time edge intelligence using federated meta-learning.
problem Real-time intelligent decisions at edge devices with limited resources and data.
method Federated meta-learning approach for rapid adaptation of learned models.
result Effective framework demonstrated on various datasets.
TransCal calibrates DA models with lower bias and variance.
problem Calibrating DA models to estimate accurate predictive uncertainty.
method Transferable Calibration (TransCal) in a unified hyperparameter-free optimization framework.
result TransCal achieves more accurate calibration with lower bias and variance.
GDA-HIN adapts across heterogeneous networks by aligning shared and private node types.
problem Domain adaptation challenges in heterogeneous networks with shared and private node types.
method Generalized Domain Adaptive model across HINs (GDA-HIN) that aligns identical-type nodes and edges while utilizing different-type nodes and edges.
result GDA-HIN outperforms state-of-the-art methods in various domain adaptation tasks across heterogeneous networks.
The role of uncertainty quantification (UQ) in deep learning has become crucial with growing use of predictive models in high-risk applications. Though a large class of methods exists for measuring deep uncertainties, in practice, the resulting estimates are found to be poorly calibrated, thus making it challenging to …
Brain-Machine Interfaces (BMIs) have recently emerged as a clinically viable option to restore voluntary movements after paralysis. These devices are based on the ability to extract information about movement intent from neural signals recorded using multi-electrode arrays chronically implanted in the motor cortices of…
New method uses AI predictions as cheaper alternatives to expensive outcomes.
problem Using expensive outcomes for statistical inference.
method Recalibrated prediction-powered inference using machine learning techniques.
result Significant gains in effective sample size over existing PPI proposals.
A new method learns DAG structures from data without false edges.
problem Learning DAG structures from observational data is hard due to combinatorial search space and non-sparse solutions.
method Developed NOTEARS-AL using adaptive Lasso to ensure sparsity and rule out false edges.
result NOTEARS-AL outperforms NOTEARS in synthetic and real-world datasets.
ACERL embeds networks into a low-dimensional space preserving structural and semantic properties.
problem Challenges in brain connectivity data analysis with subject-specific, high-dimensional, and sparse networks.
method Contrastive learning of augmented network pairs with adaptive random masking.
result Achieves minimax optimal convergence rate for edge representation learning.
Isotonic regression binning affects calibration statistics of machine learning models.
problem Isotonic regression binning introduces aleatoric uncertainty in calibration statistics.
method Calibration error statistics are recalibrated using isotonic regression, which produces stratified uncertainties.
result Stratified uncertainties lead to significant differences in bin-based calibration statistics.
Unsupervised recalibration (URC) is a general way to improve the accuracy of an already trained probabilistic classification or regression model upon encountering new data while deployed in the field. URC does not require any ground truth associated with the new field data. URC merely observes the model's predictions a…
Low-rank training improves neural network training on edge devices with non-volatile memory.
problem Training neural networks on edge devices with non-volatile memory, especially in terms of write density and auxiliary memory.
method Low-rank training scheme to address write density and auxiliary memory limitations.
result The low-rank training technique outperforms standard SGD in accuracy and weight writes.
Paper tackles non-Markovian control problems with new learning methods.
problem Non-Markovian stochastic control problems with unknown parameters.
method Off-model training and importance sampling for deep neural network approximation.
result Quantitative error bounds for adaptive learning under model uncertainty.
Let (M,g) be a compact oriented Riemannian manifold with an incomplete edge singularity. This article shows that it is possible to evolve g by the Yamabe flow within a class of singular edge metrics. As the main analytic step we establish parabolic Schauder-type estimates for the heat operator on certain Hölder spaces …
Adaptive anomaly detection for IoT data reduces delay by 84%.
problem Real-time anomaly detection for IoT devices with limited resources.
method Hierarchical edge computing with adaptive anomaly detection models.
result Reduces detection delay by 84% while maintaining accuracy.
CoMGNN models heterogeneous graphs with evolving nodes and edges.
problem Modeling complex, evolving graphs with diverse information.
method Meta graph attention on co-evolving heterogeneous graphs.
result Significant improvement over state-of-the-art methods.