Novel confidence sets improve linear bandit performance by adapting to unknown noise levels.
problem Adapting to unknown noise levels in sequential decision-making.
method Proposed semi-adaptive and variance-adaptive confidence sets.
result Improved regret bounds and better performance in Bayesian optimization tasks.
We consider the setting of linear regression in high dimension. We focus on the problem of constructing adaptive and honest confidence sets for the sparse parameter θ, i.e. we want to construct a confidence set for theta that contains theta with high probability, and that is as small as possible. The l_2 diameter of a …
Study shows NCCP can replace CP for ACI in non-exchangeable data.
problem Ensuring reliable prediction under non-exchangeability.
method Demonstrates NCCP as a valid alternative to CP for ACI.
result NCCP offers computational advantages and comparable predictive efficiency.
New method optimizes offline linear bandits using different confidence sets.
problem Optimizing offline learning for linear contextual bandits.
method Introduces a family of pessimistic learning rules based on ℓ p \ell_p ℓ p confidence sets. result The π ^ ∞ \hatπ_\infty π ^ ∞ rule achieves minimax performance and strictly dominates other predictors. New method predicts sets under unknown covariate shift with high confidence.
problem Adapting to unknown covariate shift in prediction sets.
method PredSet-1Step, a flexible distribution-free method.
result Achieves asymptotic probably approximately correct coverage.
New method constructs confidence sets for GLMs via game theory.
problem Developing reliable confidence intervals for GLM parameters.
method Reduction to sequential prediction games with low regret.
result Online-to-confidence-set conversions provide new types of intervals.
Efficient inference method for adaptive experiments with tighter confidence sequences.
problem Efficient inference of Average Treatment Effect in a changing policy sequential experiment.
method Semiparametric efficient inference using Adaptive Augmented Inverse-Probability Weighted estimator and asymptotic confidence sequences.
result Derives tighter confidence sequences for adaptive experiments under data-dependent stopping times.
LinUCB algorithm handles adaptive sampling biases for linear bandits.
problem Adaptive sampling introduces biases in statistical inference.
method LinUCB algorithm with stability property for linear bandits.
result LinUCB achieves asymptotic normality with Wald-type confidence sets.
CADR estimator improves inference for contextual bandit data.
problem Valid inference on contextual bandit data.
method CADR estimator for policy value, addressing adaptive data collection challenges.
result CADR provides correct coverage of confidence intervals.
New methods improve confidence set calibration in complex models.
problem Challenges in maintaining confidence set coverage in complex models.
method TRUST and TRUST++ methods using simulated data for calibration.
result Methods achieve distribution-free conditional coverage and robust inference.
New method for linear bandits with unknown sparsity, improving sparse regret bounds.
problem Sparse regret bounds for unknown sparsity and adversarial action sets.
method Combines online to confidence set conversions with randomized model selection over nested confidence sets.
result First sparse regret bounds for unknown sparsity and adversarial action sets.
Calibrates network confidence for unsupervised domain adaptation.
problem Calibrating a model trained on a source domain to a target domain without labeled data.
method Estimates network accuracy on the target domain and calibrates prediction confidence directly in the target domain.
result Significantly outperforms existing methods across standard datasets.
Develops statistical confidence sets for multidimensional scaling.
problem Statistical uncertainty in multidimensional scaling of noisy data.
method Formal statistical framework, distributional convergence results, uniform confidence sets, bootstrap procedures.
result Construction of reliable confidence sets for latent configurations in multidimensional scaling.
The paper develops adaptive confidence intervals for Efron's Gaussian two-groups model with unknown contamination.
problem Developing robust uncertainty quantification for Efron's Gaussian two-groups model with unknown contamination fraction.
method The approach involves Fourier-based certification procedures to find minimax-optimal adaptive confidence intervals.
result The minimax-optimal length of adaptive confidence intervals is polynomially worse than when contamination fraction is known.
A new differentiable UCB algorithm for linear bandits learns adaptive confidence bounds.
problem Inability of UCB to strike optimal exploration-exploitation due to confidence bounds.
method Proposes a differentiable linear bandit algorithm and a gradient estimator for learning adaptive confidence bounds.
result Achieves a i l d e O ( β ^ d T ) ilde{\mathcal{O}}(\hatβ\sqrt{dT}) i l d e O ( β ^ d T ) upper bound of T T T -round regret. LqgOpt learns optimal control in unknown LQG systems with minimal regret.
problem Adaptive control in partially observable linear quadratic Gaussian systems with unknown dynamics.
method Optimism in the face of uncertainty, predictor state evolution, closed-loop system identification, confidence bounds.
result Proves a regret upper bound of i l d e O ( T ) ilde{\mathcal{O}}(\sqrt{T}) i l d e O ( T ) for LQG systems. PPI++ uses machine learning predictions to improve inference from small datasets.
problem Efficient inference from small labeled datasets with high-quality predictions.
method Adapts prediction-powered inference (PPI) to compute confidence sets for any parameter dimensionality.
result Improves classical intervals using only labeled data, always yielding better results.
New algorithms for model selection in linear bandits adapt to instance complexity.
problem Adapting to the instance-dependent complexity of the true model in linear bandits.
method Design of algorithms in fixed confidence and fixed budget settings, leveraging experimental design and selection-validation procedures.
result Near instance optimal guarantees for model selection in linear bandits.
We design a general framework for answering adaptive statistical queries that focuses on providing explicit confidence intervals along with point estimates. Prior work in this area has either focused on providing tight confidence intervals for specific analyses, or providing general worst-case bounds for point estimate…
Motivated by the growing popularity of variants of the Wasserstein distance in statistics and machine learning, we study statistical inference for the Sliced Wasserstein distance--an easily computable variant of the Wasserstein distance. Specifically, we construct confidence intervals for the Sliced Wasserstein distanc…
Data-driven method for error estimation without needing class complexity.
problem Constructing confidence intervals for a class of estimates.
method Data-driven approach to derive high-probability upper bounds on maximum error.
result Method naturally adapts to unknown correlation structures and works for finite and infinite classes.
New algorithm for active learning in multiple matrix completion problems.
problem Simultaneous matrix completion with unknown ranks and varying sizes.
method MAlocate algorithm that adapts to unknown ranks and sizes.
result Minimax-optimal performance demonstrated with lower-bound analysis.
Adaptive inference for M M M -estimators in bandit data with model misspecification.
problem Challenges in off-policy inference for adaptively collected bandit data with a misspecified model.
method A novel approach to define a projected solution over a stationary evaluation policy, stabilizing variance with flexible methods.
result Valid inference for M M M -estimators in adaptive settings, even with unstable treatment policies. Develops spatial uncertainty guarantees for image segmentation models.
problem Ensuring reliable segmentation predictions for biomedical images.
method Adapting conformal inference to imaging, using transformed logit scores and calibration datasets.
result Confidence sets provide spatial uncertainty guarantees with desired probability.
Algorithm generates adaptive confidence sets for instance segmentation with guaranteed coverage.
problem Uncalibrated predictions and lack of uncertainty quantification in instance segmentation models.
method Conformal prediction algorithm to generate adaptive confidence sets with provable guarantees.
result Empirically, prediction sets vary in size based on query difficulty and attain target coverage, outperforming baselines.
Tent adapts models during testing by minimizing entropy of predictions.
problem Adapting models to new data during testing with limited information.
method Test entropy minimization (tent) and online channel-wise affine transformations.
result Reduces generalization error on various datasets and benchmarks.
Confidence-based deferral works well in many scenarios but fails in specific cases.
problem Understanding when confidence-based deferral fails and when other strategies are better.
method Theoretical analysis and post-hoc deferral mechanisms were studied.
result Theoretical analysis characterizes settings where confidence-based deferral may fail.
A modification of the confidence screening mechanism based on adaptive weighing of every training instance at each cascade level of the Deep Forest is proposed. The idea underlying the modification is very simple and stems from the confidence screening mechanism idea proposed by Pang et al. to simplify the Deep Forest …
This paper improves test-time adaptation for distribution shifts using confidence maximization and input transformation.
problem Improving deep networks' performance on data shifted from the training distribution.
method Proposes a novel loss function combining confidence maximization and batch-wise entropy maximization with an input transformation module.
result Significantly improves robustness of pretrained networks to corruptions on benchmarks like ImageNet-C.
New confidence intervals improve treatment effect estimation in randomized experiments.
problem Improving confidence intervals for treatment effects in randomized experiments.
method Systematic exploitation of negative dependence or variance adaptivity.
result Achieved nonasymptotic confidence intervals with the same effective sample size as asymptotic ones.
CONTINA provides adaptive confidence intervals for traffic demand prediction.
problem Uncertainty in future traffic demand predictions and the need for valid confidence intervals.
method Adaptive confidence interval method that adjusts based on deployment errors.
result Valid confidence intervals with shorter lengths and theoretical coverage guarantee.
FAWMF adapts weights for implicit feedback recommendation efficiently.
problem Challenges in treating unobserved data as negative in implicit feedback recommendation.
method FAWMF uses a variational auto-encoder with a parameterized neural network to adaptively assign personalized data confidence weights, and fBGD for efficient learning.
result FAWMF and fBGD outperform existing methods in real-world datasets.
Improved algorithms for stochastic linear bandits using tighter confidence sequences.
problem Stochastic linear bandits with improved worst-case regret guarantees.
method Novel tail bound for adaptive martingale mixtures to construct tighter confidence sequences.
result Linear bandit algorithm achieves competitive worst-case regret.
A new algorithm reduces inference error in adaptive contextual bandits.
problem Challenges in statistical inference for adaptive contextual bandits.
method Proposes a regularized EXP4 algorithm that satisfies the Lai-Wei stability condition.
result Valid Wald-type confidence intervals for linear functionals can be achieved without the price of adaptivity.
New method improves conditional coverage of conformal prediction.
problem Improving conditional coverage in conformal prediction.
method Trainable transformation of conformity scores to improve conditional coverage.
result Highly adaptive to local data structure, outperforming existing methods.
Paper certifies intersection of minimum-volume confidence sets for multinomial outcomes.
problem Certifying intersection of minimum-volume confidence sets for multinomial outcomes.
method Exploits likelihood ordering to induce halfspace constraints, enabling adaptive geometric partitioning and computable bounds on p-values.
result Efficient and provably sound algorithm for certifying intersection, disjointness, or indeterminate result.
Optimal ability estimation in adaptive testing with binary responses.
problem Estimating a continuous ability parameter from sequential binary responses.
method Adaptive selection of questions to maximize Fisher information, updating estimate using method-of-moments, and deciding accuracy with a test statistic.
result Fisher-tracking strategy achieves optimal performance in fixed-confidence and fixed-budget regimes.
Near-optimal confidence intervals for bounded data.
problem Online inference for sequential decision problems like A/B testing.
method Utilizing Bentkus' concentration results to improve on existing methods.
result Near-optimal confidence intervals confirmed favorable in synthetic and practical applications.
Algorithm aggregates rewards from multiple players to learn related tasks in online bandit learning.
problem Learning related but slightly different tasks in an online setting with heterogeneous feedback.
method RobustAgg ( ε ) (ε) ( ε ) algorithm that aggregates rewards from different players. result Achieves instance-dependent regret guarantees and nearly matching lower bounds.
New algorithms identify best arm with less pulls, adapting to arm covariances.
problem Best arm identification under dependent and correlated arm distributions.
method Adaptive algorithms estimating arm covariances to minimize pulls.
result Substantial improvement in best arm identification over standard setting.
Develops a simple method for creating private confidence intervals.
problem Creating private confidence intervals for parametric estimation.
method Parametric bootstrap approach to construct confidence intervals.
result The parametric bootstrap provides consistent and effective confidence intervals.
New algorithm resists corruption in linear contextual bandits.
problem Adversarial corruption in linear contextual bandits.
method Variance-aware algorithm with multi-level partition and adaptive confidence sets.
result Regret bound of i l d e O ( C 2 d ∑ t = 1 T σ t 2 + C 2 R d T ) ilde{O}(C^2d\sqrt{\sum_{t = 1}^T σ_t^2} + C^2R\sqrt{dT}) i l d e O ( C 2 d ∑ t = 1 T σ t 2 + C 2 R d T ) . MPS selects models for nonstationary time series in real-time.
problem Model selection under nonstationary time series.
method Combines conformal inference with model confidence sets.
result Reliably identifies optimal models under nonstationarity.
The paper improves confidence set construction for statistical inference.
problem Constructing reliable confidence sets in statistical inference.
method Establishes a finite-sample bound using effective dimension and generalized self-concordance.
result Developed a confidence set adapted to optimization landscapes.
EB-TCε identifies the best arm with ε confidence in stochastic bandits.
problem Identifying the best arm in stochastic bandits with a fixed level of confidence.
method EB-TCε is a novel sampling rule for ε-best arm identification in stochastic bandits.
result EB-TCε is the first anytime algorithm for fixed confidence or fixed budget identification.
We present a confidence-based single-layer feed-forward learning algorithm SPIRAL (Spike Regularized Adaptive Learning) relying on an encoding of activation spikes. We adaptively update a weight vector relying on confidence estimates and activation offsets relative to previous activity. We regularize updates proportion…
We give a new algorithm for best arm identification in linearly parameterised bandits in the fixed confidence setting. The algorithm generalises the well-known LUCB algorithm of Kalyanakrishnan et al. (2012) by playing an arm which minimises a suitable notion of geometric overlap of the statistical confidence set for t…
This paper improves deep learning classifiers by integrating conformal prediction during training.
problem High-stake AI applications require reliable uncertainty estimates for safe deployment.
method Integrates conformal prediction (CP) during training of deep learning models.
result Reduces inefficiency and allows more control over confidence sets.