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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

169,051 papers · 148 categories

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48 results for activation probability

New acquisition function improves batch Bayesian active learning.

problem BatchBALD conflates epistemic and aleatoric uncertainty, leading to suboptimal performance.
method Focus on predictive probabilities to separate epistemic uncertainty, leading to better performance and faster evaluation.
result The new acquisition function performs better and allows for larger batches.

Active Kriging Monte Carlo simulation method with conformal certification for failure probability estimation

problem Failure probability estimation in structural reliability analysis
method Active learning framework with conformal prediction
result Improved uncertainty quantification and reliability of failure probability estimates

Active seriation recovers item order from noisy pairwise similarity measurements.

problem Recovering an unknown item ordering from noisy pairwise similarity measurements.
method Proposes an active seriation algorithm that provably recovers the latent ordering with high probability.
result Establishes optimal performance guarantees for successful recovery under a uniform separation condition.

The study examines how the choice of activation function affects the hidden node distribution in deep networks.

problem The effect of activation function on the distribution of hidden nodes in deep networks.
method Analysis of joint probability distribution of hidden variables in deep networks with random weights and biases.
result The convergence of hidden node lengths to a simple function of network parameters and activation function under minimal assumptions.

New insights on active sequential prediction for mean estimation.

problem Active sequential prediction-powered mean estimation problem.
method Combining uncertainty-based suggestion with a constant probability, analyzing non-asymptotic bounds, and using no-regret learning.
result The optimal query probability is close to the constraint when using no-regret learning.

Improves Active Learning by considering class imbalance and difficulty.

problem Active Learning's focus on individual samples ignores class distribution and difficulty.
method Proposes a method based on Bayes' rule to incorporate class imbalance, using a Variational Auto Encoder (VAE).
result Significantly outperforms state-of-the-art methods on datasets with heavy data imbalance.

We study covariance matrix estimation for the case of partially observed random vectors, where different samples contain different subsets of vector coordinates. Each observation is the product of the variable of interest with a 010-1 Bernoulli random variable. We analyze an unbiased covariance estimator under this mod…

2018-04-04abs ↗pdf ↗

Active learning selects optimal measurement times for inferring continuous paths from sparse data.

problem Inferring continuous probability paths from sparse snapshots in high-fidelity domains like single-cell biology.
method Extends active experimentation to the space of measures using Linearized Optimal Transport (LOT) for probabilistic surrogate modeling.
result Empirical results show that the proposed strategy outperforms uncertainty-agnostic baselines.

An active learning approach reduces AoI violation in vehicular networks.

problem Dynamic nature of vehicular networks makes resource allocation challenging.
method Gaussian process regression (GPR) for online decentralized active learning.
result Significant improvement in AoI violation probability with at least 50% reduction.

Paper proposes an efficient AL-GP method for CDF/CCDF estimation in UQ.

problem Estimating full probability distribution in forward UQ analysis.
method Active learning-based Gaussian process (AL-GP) metamodelling method.
result Efficient estimation of CDF/CCDF without explicit discretization.

ReLU units can 'die' in neural networks, causing slower convergence.

problem ReLU units sometimes produce near-zero outputs during training.
method Simulation and statistical analysis of a simplified ReLU unit model.
result Activation probability decreases as training progresses, leading to slower convergence.

Personal VAD detects target speaker voice activity efficiently.

problem Efficiently detect target speaker voice activity for reduced computational cost and battery usage.
method Trains a neural network conditioned on speaker embedding or verification score, outputs probabilities for three speech classes.
result Trained model with 130K parameters outperforms combined standard VAD and speaker recognition networks.

Researchers infer gene activity in dividing cells, accounting for protein inheritance and division history.

problem Inferring protein production kinetics in dividing cells due to protein inheritance and division history.
method Adapted conditional normalizing flows to approximate intractable likelihoods from simulated data.
result Glc3 gene is mostly inactive under stress, with brief and transient expression.

We study the role of active and passive investors in an investment market with uncertainties. Active investors concentrate on a single or a few stocks with a given probability of determining the quality of them. Passive investors spread their investment uniformly, resembling buying the market index. In this toy market …

2001-04-18abs ↗pdf ↗

Study proposes active learning method for estimating robust regions in uncertain function evaluations.

problem Estimating robust regions for uncertain function evaluations with unknown distributions.
method Distributionally robust level-set estimation (DRPTR) with active learning.
result The proposed method efficiently identifies reliable regions with theoretical guarantees.

Active-LATHE boosts error exponent for learning homogeneous trees.

problem Learning homogeneous trees from i.i.d. data with active sampling.
method Design and analysis of Active Learning Algorithm for Trees with Homogeneous Edge (Active-LATHE).
result Active-LATHE boosts the error exponent by at least 40% for ρ0.8ρ \geq 0.8.

We introduce the stochastic multiplicative point process modelling trading activity of financial markets. Such a model system exhibits power-law spectral density S(f) ~ 1/f**beta, scaled as power of frequency for various values of beta between 0.5 and 2. Furthermore, we analyze the relation between the power-law autoco…

2004-12-28abs ↗pdf ↗

Many online platforms have deployed anti-fraud systems to detect and prevent fraudulent activities. However, there is usually a gap between the time that a user commits a fraudulent action and the time that the user is suspended by the platform. How to detect fraudsters in time is a challenging problem. Most of the exi…

2018-09-12abs ↗pdf ↗

Improves machine learning model training with noisy labels using active learning and clustering.

problem Training machine learning models with noisy oracles and limited data.
method Uses clustering and importance sampling to select batches of samples, incorporates model uncertainty, and introduces a denoising layer.
result Significant improvement in model accuracy on benchmark datasets compared to existing methods.

This paper presents a method to efficiently estimate rare event probabilities using a combination of high and low-fidelity models.

problem Estimating the probability of failure for complex systems using high-fidelity models is expensive and inaccurate for rare events.
method The paper introduces a multi-fidelity surrogate modeling strategy using active learning and subset simulation to merge high and low-fidelity models.
result The method significantly reduces computational cost while maintaining high accuracy in estimating rare event probabilities.

Method quantifies sensitivity of reliability analysis to uncertainty sources.

problem Computational expense in reliability analysis of complex models.
method Gaussian process surrogate model, active learning, sensitivity analysis.
result Reduces main source of error in estimating rare event probabilities.

A new method estimates rare failure events in complex systems.

problem Estimating the probability of rare failure events in non-linear systems.
method Stochastic Spectral Embedding (SSE) combined with modifications for efficient rare event estimation.
result Rare failure probability decomposed into conditional probabilities for easier computation.

Proposes a new model to generate informative samples for image classification without querying an oracle.

problem Expensive and difficult labeling of data for machine learning models.
method Integrates active learning with a conditional GAN to generate samples with high uncertainty for a specific label.
result Generated samples improve image classification performance without querying an oracle.

Recent theoretical work has demonstrated that deep neural networks have superior performance over shallow networks, but their training is more difficult, e.g., they suffer from the vanishing gradient problem. This problem can be typically resolved by the rectified linear unit (ReLU) activation. However, here we show th…

2018-08-15abs ↗pdf ↗

In order to model volatile real-world network behavior, we analyze phase-flipping dynamical scale-free network in which nodes and links fail and recover. We investigate how stochasticity in a parameter governing the recovery process affects phase-flipping dynamics, and find the probability that no more than q% of nodes…

2014-01-29abs ↗pdf ↗

Develops a real-time exercise recommendation system using deep learning.

problem Improving accuracy in exercise recommendation systems without user feedback.
method Deep recurrent neural network with attention mechanisms, real-time expert feedback.
result Improved accuracy in exercise recommendation system after real-time active learning.

Paper analyzes neural networks using active subspace for structural analysis and vulnerability, reducing model size and improving attacks.

problem Analyzing and reducing the complexity of neural networks.
method Active subspace method for measuring active neurons, network structure modification, and additive universal adversarial attack vector.
result ASNet achieves significant parameter and flops reduction, and improves universal adversarial attack performance.

Proposes PER loss to regularize neural network activations to normal distribution.

problem Improving neural network generalization and training speed.
method Regularizes activations to standard normal distribution via projected error function and Wasserstein distance.
result Minimizes Wasserstein distance between activation distribution and standard normal.