This paper studies the trade-off between model accuracy and coverage for diagnosis models used by patients.
problem Balancing accuracy and coverage in diagnosis models for patient use.
method Learned diagnosis models with varying coverage from EHR data.
result A 1% drop in top-3 accuracy for every 10 diseases added to the coverage.
The paper explores learning good policies from past data in large state spaces.
problem Learning good policies from historical data in large state spaces.
method Introduces expressivity assumptions and data coverage for function approximation and algorithmic design.
result A variety of algorithms and their guarantees are presented based on assumptions and desired complexity.
SPLICE generates accurate time-series imputations with reliable prediction intervals.
problem Lack of reliability guarantees in time-series imputation models.
method Modular framework combining latent generative imputation with distribution-free prediction intervals.
result SPLICE achieves lowest mean Load-only MSE and best CRPS on various datasets.
Conformal Bayes under label shift: post-hoc calibration vs. in-training adaptation
problem Bayesian prediction sets under label shift
method Post-hoc calibration vs. In-training adaptation
result Both strategies achieve valid coverage equally in an unbiased training regime
Selective classification can worsen accuracy disparities between groups.
problem Selective classification can magnify existing accuracy disparities between various groups.
method Study of margin distribution and distributionally-robust models.
result Selective classification can uniformly improve each group on distributionally-robust models.
CSP improves time-series forecasting without training, outperforming DeepNPTS in speed and accuracy.
problem Improving probabilistic time-series forecasting without training.
method Mixing empirical and residual draws around a seasonal naive forecast.
result CSP significantly outperforms DeepNPTS on CRPS, normalized mean quantile loss, and coverage metrics.
Hybrid Bayesian-conformal framework improves uncertainty quantification in healthcare predictions.
problem Jointly satisfying distribution-free coverage guarantees and risk-adaptive precision in clinical decision-making.
method Integrates Bayesian hierarchical random forests with group-aware conformal calibration, using posterior uncertainties to weight conformity scores.
result Achieves target coverage (94.3% vs 95% target) with adaptive precision, 21% narrower intervals for low-uncertainty cases.
TARP tests accuracy of generative posterior estimators.
problem Assessing the accuracy of posterior estimators from generative models.
method TARP coverage testing method.
result TARP can detect inaccurate inferences in high-dimensional spaces.
A new method for selective classification trades off accuracy for coverage.
problem Selective classification allows a classifier to abstain from predicting some instances.
method Optimizes a collection of class-wise decoupled one-sided empirical risks.
result The method achieves near-optimal coverage in high target accuracy regimes.
Adaptive coverage policies improve conformal prediction accuracy.
problem Fixed coverage levels in traditional conformal prediction lead to uninformative predictions.
method Optimizes adaptive coverage policy using a neural network trained on leave-one-out calibration.
result Adaptive coverage policies produce more informative and flexible prediction sets.
New method uses label-weighted conformal prediction for macro-coverage guarantees in classification.
problem Finding a balance between class-conditional and marginal coverage in long-tailed datasets.
method Label-weighted conformal prediction for macro-coverage guarantees.
result Validated prediction sets with macro-coverage guarantees on large-scale image datasets.
Paper tackles sample-efficient offline RL, proposing data diversity and unified algorithms.
problem Sample-efficient learning from historical data for sequential decision-making.
method Proposes data diversity and unifies three offline RL algorithm classes: VS, RO, and PS.
result Comparable sample efficiency for VS, RO, and PS algorithms under standard assumptions.
Value selection reduces model size while maintaining accuracy.
problem Space efficiency in model size reduction.
method Two probabilistic methods based on information theory's metric: PVS and P + VS.
result Value selection achieves balance between accuracy and model size reduction.
New method improves conditional coverage of conformal prediction.
problem Improving conditional coverage in conformal prediction.
method Trainable transformation of conformity scores to improve conditional coverage.
result Highly adaptive to local data structure, outperforming existing methods.
Training of one-vs.-rest SVMs can be parallelized over the number of classes in a straight forward way. Given enough computational resources, one-vs.-rest SVMs can thus be trained on data involving a large number of classes. The same cannot be stated, however, for the so-called all-in-one SVMs, which require solving a …
Wireless traffic prediction is a fundamental enabler to proactive network optimisation in beyond 5G. Forecasting extreme demand spikes and troughs due to traffic mobility is essential to avoiding outages and improving energy efficiency. Current state-of-the-art deep learning forecasting methods predominantly focus on o…
Our work focuses on the problem of predicting the transfer of pediatric patients from the general ward of a hospital to the pediatric intensive care unit. Using data collected over 5.5 years from the electronic health records of two medical facilities, we develop classifiers based on adaptive boosting and gradient tree…
A new L2D system produces calibrated probabilities of expert correctness without sacrificing accuracy.
problem Calibration of learning to defer systems for safety.
method One-vs-all classifiers with a consistent surrogate loss function.
result Proposes a calibrated L2D system that outperforms existing methods in accuracy and calibration.
C-SymmPI provides near-conditional coverage for structured data with group symmetries.
problem Establishing near-conditional coverage guarantees for structured data with group symmetries.
method Developed a framework C-SymmPI that achieves near-conditional coverage under general data structures with group symmetries.
result Near-conditional coverage guarantees for structured data with group symmetries.
CoroNet detects COVID-19 from chest X-rays with high accuracy.
problem Detecting COVID-19 from chest X-rays using limited testing kits.
method Proposes CoroNet, a deep neural network based on Xception architecture trained on a combined dataset of COVID-19 and pneumonia X-rays.
result CoroNet achieved an overall accuracy of 89.6% and precision/recall rates of 93%/98.2% for 4-class cases (COVID vs Pneumonia bacterial vs pneumonia viral vs normal).
New method selects data points for better model performance.
problem Balancing input coverage and model utility in selective prediction.
method Study training dynamics to reject inputs with unstable predictions.
result State-of-the-art selective prediction performance achieved without model modifications.
This paper studies optimal approximation factors in misspecified off-policy RL, identifying key factors under various settings.
problem Understanding optimal approximation factors in misspecified off-policy value function estimation.
method Examined various settings including weighted L2-norm, L∞ norm, state aliasing, and state coverage. result Established optimal asymptotic approximation factors for different norms and identified two instance-dependent factors for L2(μ) norm. Develop a framework to evaluate the reliability of probabilistic emulation of physical systems.
problem Evaluating the reliability of probabilistic forecasts in physical systems.
method Developing a framework to assess the reliability of probabilistic emulation across diverse 2D spatiotemporal systems.
result CRPS-trained ensembles achieve more reliable uncertainties on single-step prediction and autoregressive rollouts.
The study reduces a personality measurement instrument to 10 features with minimal loss of accuracy.
problem Accurately predicting personality types with minimal predictors.
method Reduced a 94-item personality survey to 10 features, using class imbalance correction methods.
result Achieved 73.81% accuracy on unseen data with only 1% loss.
Adaptive Misinformation defends against model stealing attacks by sending incorrect predictions for OOD queries.
problem Model stealing attacks clone target models using black-box query access and a surrogate dataset.
method Selective sending of incorrect predictions for Out-Of-Distribution (OOD) queries to degrade attacker's clone model accuracy.
result Our defense reduces attacker's clone model accuracy by up to 40% while maintaining benign user accuracy under 0.5%.
Paper resolves the debate on process vs. outcome supervision in reinforcement learning.
problem Distinguishing between process and outcome supervision in reinforcement learning.
method Developed a technical tool (Change of Trajectory Measure Lemma) to show equivalence between outcome and process supervision under standard data coverage assumptions.
result Reinforcement learning through outcome supervision is statistically equivalent to process supervision, up to polynomial factors in horizon.
CIR method constructs efficient prediction intervals with guaranteed coverage.
problem Efficiently constructing near-minimal prediction intervals with guaranteed coverage.
method Conditional Interquantile Regression (CIR) and CIR+ (enhanced version).
result Optimal balance between predictive accuracy and computational efficiency.
CPATTA uses conformal prediction for efficient test-time adaptation.
problem Low data selection efficiency in existing ATTA methods.
method Conformal Prediction, online weight-update algorithm, domain-shift detector, staged update scheme.
result CPATTA consistently outperforms state-of-the-art methods by 5% in accuracy.
WR-CP reduces prediction set size and coverage gap under distribution shift.
problem Guaranteed coverage under distribution shift not achievable with i.i.d. assumption.
method Wasserstein distance, probability measure pushforwards, importance weighting, regularized representation learning.
result Reduces coverage gap to 3.2% across different confidence levels.
TCP provides well-calibrated prediction intervals for nonstationary time series.
problem Nonstationary time series forecasting with well-calibrated prediction intervals.
method Temporal Conformal Prediction (TCP) couples a modern quantile forecaster with a rolling split-conformal calibration layer.
result TCP achieves near-nominal coverage, providing slightly wider intervals than Historical Simulation.
Robust cancer screening model using pre-trained ensembles for biomarkers.
problem Detecting early-stage cancer, especially in hard-to-diagnose cases like pancreatic cancer.
method Meta-trained Hyperfast model for robust classification, combined with ensembling of XGBoost and LightGBM.
result Achieved highest AUC of 0.9929 and robust performance on imbalanced datasets.
Two approaches improve conformal Bayes for label shift, one post-hoc and one in-training.
problem Improving prediction sets for target domain under label shift.
method Two complementary approaches: post-hoc calibration and in-training adaptation.
result In-training adaptation achieves up to 43% width reduction at unchanged coverage.
COLEP improves robustness of conformal prediction via probabilistic circuits.
problem Adversarial perturbations can undermine the coverage guarantees of conformal prediction.
method COLEP uses probabilistic circuits to learn and reason about different semantic concepts, providing certifiable coverage guarantees.
result COLEP achieves higher prediction coverage and accuracy than a single model, especially with non-trivial knowledge models.
RS-NN predicts belief functions for classification, improving accuracy and uncertainty estimation.
problem Improving confidence in machine learning predictions for safety-critical applications.
method Random-Set Neural Network (RS-NN) using random set mathematics.
result RS-NN outperforms state-of-the-art methods in accuracy, uncertainty estimation, and OoD detection.
Locally Valid and Discriminative prediction intervals for deep learning models.
problem Efficient and theoretically sound uncertainty quantification for deep learning models.
method Locally Valid and Discriminative prediction intervals (LVD) using kernel regression.
result Locally Valid and Discriminative prediction intervals (LVD) offer better performance and scalability compared to existing methods.
Paper designs optimal ECOCs using IP for robust multiclass classification.
problem Designing robust ECOCs for multiclass classification.
method Integer Programming formulation to minimize codebooks with desirable error-correcting properties, leveraging graph-theoretic structure and edge clique covers.
result IP-generated codebooks achieve high nominal and robust adversarial accuracy.
New linear algorithms improve wSVMs for multiclass probability estimation.
problem Estimating conditional probabilities for multiclass problems.
method Proposed baseline learning and OVA learning schemes to improve wSVMs.
result Linear algorithms achieve optimal computational efficiency and good estimation accuracy.
Algorithm speeds up search for stationary targets with guaranteed accuracy.
problem Minimize search time while ensuring high detection accuracy of stationary targets.
method Multi-fidelity Gaussian process model and EMTS algorithm.
result Guaranteed performance in target detection accuracy and search time.
Bayesian method improves few-shot classification accuracy.
problem Few-shot classification with small labeled datasets.
method Gaussian process classifier with Pólya-Gamma augmentation and one-vs-each softmax.
result Improved accuracy and uncertainty quantification.
This study calculates the maximum error of a famous estimation method.
problem Estimating rare items not seen in a sample.
method Characterizes the maximal mean-squared error of the Good-Turing estimator.
result Characterizes the maximal mean-squared error of the Good-Turing estimator.
Method predicts NAFLD risk with high accuracy and distribution-free coverage guarantees.
problem Insufficient population-level screening tools for NAFLD.
method Gradient-boosted decision trees with conformal prediction.
result Method achieves AUROC of 0.912 internally and 0.891 externally, superior to other models.
Any given classification problem can be modeled using multi-class or One-vs-All (OVA) architecture. An OVA system consists of as many OVA models as the number of classes, providing the advantage of asynchrony, where each OVA model can be re-trained independent of other models. This is particularly advantageous in setti…
Improves random forest quantile estimation and prediction intervals.
problem Excessive bias in quantile estimates from random forests.
method Minimizes quantile coverage loss (QCL) by adjusting RF parameters.
result QCL-tuned RFs produce more accurate and narrower prediction intervals.
Hybrid quantum-classical model boosts S&P 500 prediction accuracy to 60.14%.
problem Challenges in financial market prediction, especially high noise and non-stationarity.
method Combines quantum sentiment analysis, Decision Transformer, and model selection strategies.
result Achieved 60.14% directional accuracy on S&P 500, a 3.10% improvement.
Deep learning classifies autism vs controls with high accuracy using large fMRI dataset.
problem Classification difficulty of autism vs typically developing controls with fMRI data.
method Ensemble CNN model trained on 43,858 fMRI datapoints, employing class-balancing and visualization methods.
result Deep learning models achieve AUROCs of 0.6774, 0.7680, and 0.9222 for ASD vs TD, gender, and task vs rest classifications.
In recent years, the number of papers on Alzheimer's disease classification has increased dramatically, generating interesting methodological ideas on the use machine learning and feature extraction methods. However, practical impact is much more limited and, eventually, one could not tell which of these approaches are…
A common method of generalizing binary to multi-class classification is the error correcting code (ECC). ECCs may be optimized in a number of ways, for instance by making them orthogonal. Here we test two types of orthogonal ECCs on seven different datasets using three types of binary classifier and compare them with t…
Study reveals how initialization scale affects training accuracy in linear networks.
problem Understanding implicit bias in linear classification models.
method Asymptotic analysis of gradient flow trajectories and training loss minimization.
result Implicit bias is more complex at reasonable initialization scales and training accuracies.