A new L2D system produces calibrated probabilities of expert correctness without sacrificing accuracy.
problem Calibration of learning to defer systems for safety.
method One-vs-all classifiers with a consistent surrogate loss function.
result Proposes a calibrated L2D system that outperforms existing methods in accuracy and calibration.
Combining ensembles and data augmentation harms model calibration.
problem Improving model calibration and robustness with ensembles and data augmentation leads to a trade-off.
method Combining ensemble averaging and data augmentation techniques.
result Combining ensembles and data augmentation can harm model calibration.
This paper improves multi-class calibration methods using mutual information maximization-based binning.
problem Calibration of deep neural network predictions, especially for small prior classes.
method I-Max concept for binning, shared class-wise calibration strategy.
result Improves multi-class ranking and calibration performance using a small calibration set.
We price weather-contingent options by use of Monte Carlo simulations. After calibrating the models to fit quoted prices, we analyze bid-ask spreads in terms of correlations across markets. Results are presented for a double-trigger Weather vs. Natural Gas call option.
Calibrates historical and implied correlations in energy markets.
problem Challenges in aligning historical correlations of futures contracts with implied volatility smiles.
method Multiplicative multi-factor Heath-Jarrow-Morton model combined with stochastic volatility from lifted Heston model, using Kemna-Vorst approximation and Fourier-based techniques.
result Remarkable joint historical and implied calibration fits on the German power market.
Conformal Bayes under label shift: post-hoc calibration vs. in-training adaptation
problem Bayesian prediction sets under label shift
method Post-hoc calibration vs. In-training adaptation
result Both strategies achieve valid coverage equally in an unbiased training regime
Improves uncertainty estimation and OOD detection in neural networks.
problem Accurate uncertainty estimation and OOD detection in neural networks.
method Investigates one-vs-all and distance-based logit representations for probabilities.
result One-vs-all formulations improve calibration without additional complexity.
Neural network quantization procedure is the necessary step for porting of neural networks to mobile devices. Quantization allows accelerating the inference, reducing memory consumption and model size. It can be performed without fine-tuning using calibration procedure (calculation of parameters necessary for quantizat…
Class probabilities predicted by most multiclass classifiers are uncalibrated, often tending towards over-confidence. With neural networks, calibration can be improved by temperature scaling, a method to learn a single corrective multiplicative factor for inputs to the last softmax layer. On non-neural models the exist…
Proposes an accuracy-preserving calibration method for DNNs.
problem Calibration of deep neural networks (DNNs) to measure prediction reliability.
method Uses Concrete distribution on the probability simplex to calibrate DNNs without accuracy loss.
result The proposed method outperforms previous methods in accuracy-preserving calibration tasks.
Calibrated ensembles improve both ID and OOD accuracy in distribution shift.
problem Desired balance between in-distribution and out-of-distribution accuracy.
method Ensemble standard and robust models, calibrating on ID data only.
result ID-calibrated ensembles outperform state-of-the-art methods on multiple datasets.
A post-hoc framework improves model performance by calibrating different feature spaces.
problem Improving AUC performance on binary classification tasks for overconfident models.
method Identifies heterogeneous partitions of the feature space and applies post-hoc calibration techniques to each partition.
result Theoretical optimality of the framework for any model, demonstrated on deep neural networks.
Calibrates network confidence for unsupervised domain adaptation.
problem Calibrating a model trained on a source domain to a target domain without labeled data.
method Estimates network accuracy on the target domain and calibrates prediction confidence directly in the target domain.
result Significantly outperforms existing methods across standard datasets.
LiST improves neural network robustness and calibration without manual tuning.
problem Developing robust and calibrated neural networks simultaneously.
method Lipschitz Scaling Training (LiST) that iteratively adjusts the global Lipschitz constant.
result LiST yields an out-of-the-box calibrated network with competitive accuracy and robustness.
TCP provides well-calibrated prediction intervals for nonstationary time series.
problem Nonstationary time series forecasting with well-calibrated prediction intervals.
method Temporal Conformal Prediction (TCP) couples a modern quantile forecaster with a rolling split-conformal calibration layer.
result TCP achieves near-nominal coverage, providing slightly wider intervals than Historical Simulation.
The Heston model optimizes portfolio management based on real market data.
problem Choosing between active and passive investment strategies.
method Calibrated Heston model to real stock market data.
result Passive strategy can outperform active strategy depending on market parameters.
Value selection reduces model size while maintaining accuracy.
problem Space efficiency in model size reduction.
method Two probabilistic methods based on information theory's metric: PVS and P + VS.
result Value selection achieves balance between accuracy and model size reduction.
Resultant improves likelihood-based U-OOD detection across various tasks.
problem Improving likelihood-based U-OOD detection performance.
method Resultant combines post-hoc prior and dataset entropy-mutual calibration techniques.
result Resultant achieves new state-of-the-art U-OOD detection performance.
Study on learning to defer to multiple experts with consistent surrogates and confidence calibration.
problem Addressing the open problems of consistent surrogates, confidence calibration, and ensembling of experts.
method Derive two consistent surrogates (softmax and OvA) and propose a conformal inference technique for choosing experts.
result The OvA-based loss does not cause mis-calibration propagation, while the softmax-based loss does.
Training of one-vs.-rest SVMs can be parallelized over the number of classes in a straight forward way. Given enough computational resources, one-vs.-rest SVMs can thus be trained on data involving a large number of classes. The same cannot be stated, however, for the so-called all-in-one SVMs, which require solving a …
This paper reviews metrics to assess AI model calibration accuracy.
problem AI model probabilities do not always match their true accuracy.
method Comprehensive review of 82 probability calibration metrics.
result Identified 4 classifier families and 1 object detection family of metrics.
Wireless traffic prediction is a fundamental enabler to proactive network optimisation in beyond 5G. Forecasting extreme demand spikes and troughs due to traffic mobility is essential to avoiding outages and improving energy efficiency. Current state-of-the-art deep learning forecasting methods predominantly focus on o…
Improves model calibration and selection in unsupervised domain adaptation.
problem Distribution shifts in unsupervised domain adaptation.
method Developed a novel importance weighted group accuracy estimator.
result Improves state-of-the-art performances by 22% in model calibration and 14% in model selection.
New loss improves DNN calibration without sacrificing accuracy.
problem Overfitting and overconfident predictions in DNNs.
method Proposes a new loss function inspired by Bayes decision theory.
result Improves DNN calibration without compromising accuracy.
Improved IVON boosts LoRA model accuracy and calibration.
problem Improving the accuracy and calibration of large language models.
method Replaced AdamW with IVON for finetuning Llama-2.
result IVON improves Llama-2 accuracy by 2.8% and calibration error by 4.6%.
Our work focuses on the problem of predicting the transfer of pediatric patients from the general ward of a hospital to the pediatric intensive care unit. Using data collected over 5.5 years from the electronic health records of two medical facilities, we develop classifiers based on adaptive boosting and gradient tree…
Focal loss improves deep neural networks' accuracy and calibration.
problem Miscalibration in deep neural networks.
method Using focal loss and temperature scaling to improve model calibration.
result Focal loss leads to state-of-the-art calibrated models without sacrificing accuracy.
A graph neural network improves multivariate post-processing of ensemble forecasts.
problem Systematic biases in ensemble forecasts and loss of dependencies across forecast dimensions.
method A composite-Loss Graph Neural Network (dualGNN) trained with a composite loss function combining ES and VS.
result The dualGNN outperforms traditional methods in multivariate verification metrics and captures spatial relationships.
Improved DNN calibration without sacrificing accuracy.
problem Poor calibration of over-parametrized DNNs in safety-critical applications.
method Decoupling feature extraction and classification layers, and applying Gaussian priors.
result Significant improvement in model calibration with minimal training cost.
CoroNet detects COVID-19 from chest X-rays with high accuracy.
problem Detecting COVID-19 from chest X-rays using limited testing kits.
method Proposes CoroNet, a deep neural network based on Xception architecture trained on a combined dataset of COVID-19 and pneumonia X-rays.
result CoroNet achieved an overall accuracy of 89.6% and precision/recall rates of 93%/98.2% for 4-class cases (COVID vs Pneumonia bacterial vs pneumonia viral vs normal).
Two approaches improve conformal Bayes for label shift, one post-hoc and one in-training.
problem Improving prediction sets for target domain under label shift.
method Two complementary approaches: post-hoc calibration and in-training adaptation.
result In-training adaptation achieves up to 43% width reduction at unchanged coverage.
BYOV combines SSL and Bayesian methods for uncertainty estimation.
problem Model uncertainty in applications.
method Combines Bootstrap Your Own Latent (BYOL) and Bayes by Backprop (BBB).
result BYOV improves model calibration and reliability with various augmentations.
TransCal calibrates DA models with lower bias and variance.
problem Calibrating DA models to estimate accurate predictive uncertainty.
method Transferable Calibration (TransCal) in a unified hyperparameter-free optimization framework.
result TransCal achieves more accurate calibration with lower bias and variance.
In many classification problems it is desirable to output well-calibrated probabilities on the different classes. We propose a robust, non-parametric method of calibrating probabilities called SplineCalib that utilizes smoothing splines to determine a calibration function. We demonstrate how applying certain transforma…
The paper tackles ride-hailing fleet repositioning with a calibrated demand approach.
problem Repositioning idle supply before future demand is observed in ride-hailing.
method A predict-then-optimize approach using calibrated demand regimes, a similarity gate, and spatial queue-regret decomposition.
result The spatial gate reduces mean wait time to 82.3s compared to 85.3s for a hand-tuned similarity gate and 85.8s for a distributional-only baseline.
The study reduces a personality measurement instrument to 10 features with minimal loss of accuracy.
problem Accurately predicting personality types with minimal predictors.
method Reduced a 94-item personality survey to 10 features, using class imbalance correction methods.
result Achieved 73.81% accuracy on unseen data with only 1% loss.
BoC probe assesses neural network confidence coherence, revealing architecture-specific uncertainty.
problem Poor calibration and OOD detection in neural networks.
method Bag-of-Coins (BoC) probe compares softmax confidence to pairwise dominance probabilities.
result BoC reveals clear ID/OOD separation for some architectures but not others.
New method improves calibration of neural networks by targeting robust margins and local smoothness.
problem Poor calibration of neural networks, leading to unreliable confidence estimates.
method Intervene on training procedure by targeting robust margins and local smoothness.
result Improved out-of-sample calibration without sacrificing accuracy.
Boosted ensemble of decision tree (DT) classifiers are extremely popular in international competitions, yet to our knowledge nothing is formally known on how to make them \textit{also} differential private (DP), up to the point that random forests currently reign supreme in the DP stage. Our paper starts with the proof…
Proposes a new method for deep ensembles that improves accuracy and calibration.
problem Improving accuracy and calibration of deep ensembles.
method Estimates confusion matrices of ensemble members and weighs them according to their inferred performance.
result Empirically shows superiority of soft Dawid Skene over ensemble averaging.
New analysis shows how to balance privacy and accuracy in deep learning.
problem Balancing privacy and accuracy in deep learning models.
method Continuous time analysis through neural tangent kernel (NTK) for arbitrary architectures.
result Large clipping norm improves calibration without sacrificing accuracy.
Study explores calibration properties in neural architectures.
problem Calibration issues in deep neural networks despite improved accuracy.
method Leverages Neural Architecture Search (NAS) to evaluate 117,702 neural networks.
result Identifies key architectural designs beneficial for calibration.
Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) have achieved state-of-the-art accuracy performance in many tasks. However, recent works have pointed out that the outputs provided by these models are not well-calibrated, seriously limiting their use in critical decision scenarios. In this work, we propose to use a decoupled Bayesian stage…
SVI and GP surrogates improve calibration of ABMs in epidemiology.
problem Calibrating stochastic ABMs in epidemiology is computationally expensive.
method Stein Variational Inference (SVI) with Gaussian process (GP) surrogates.
result SVI maintains comparable predictive accuracy and calibration effectiveness to MCMC.
Mix-n-Match improves uncertainty calibration in deep learning.
problem Post-hoc calibration of machine learning classifiers.
method Ensemble and composition strategies to improve accuracy, efficiency, and expressive power.
result Mix-n-Match strategies achieve better data-efficiency and expressive power while maintaining classification accuracy.
Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have proven to be successful in many classification tasks, outperforming previous state-of-the-art methods in terms of accuracy. However, accuracy alone is not enough for high-stakes decision making. Decision makers want to know the likelihood that a specific GNN prediction is correct. For …
Deep neural network improves Heston model calibration accuracy and speed.
problem Calibrating the Heston model with numerical stability issues.
method Gradient-based deep learning framework (DDN) to learn Heston model and its derivatives.
result DDN significantly outperforms non-differential neural networks in calibration accuracy and speed.
The paper addresses calibration in label ranking, a structured prediction task.
problem Calibration in label ranking is not well understood and often poorly calibrated.
method Formalized calibration for label ranking, developed a hierarchy of notions, and empirically evaluated models.
result Popular label ranking models are often poorly calibrated, with differences between sub-ranking and top-k metrics.