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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,742 papers · 148 categories

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73145218290 · Jun 202019922001200920172026
48 results for accumulated loss

Study of historic stock returns distributions, highlighting asymmetry and outliers.

problem Understanding the asymmetry in accumulated gains and losses in stock returns over time.
method Analyzing decades-long historic distributions of S&P500 returns, comparing gains and losses, using statistical U-tests and fitting log-log scale linearly.
result The mean of de-trended distributions increases linearly with the number of days of accumulation, and the overall skew is negative, indicating heavier tails of losses.

Analyzes multi-day stock returns, showing linear volatility and mean dependence.

problem Linear dependence of volatility and mean in accumulated stock returns.
method Modified Jones-Faddy skew t-distribution analysis.
result Linear dependence of volatility and mean on the number of days of accumulation.

A new method for pricing derivatives using self-exciting dynamics and finite-difference transforms.

problem Pricing derivatives with accumulated marks using a self-exciting marked point process.
method Derive discounted pricing equation as a PIDE, transform to one-dimensional PIDEs, use Laplace/Fourier transform, approximate jump term, solve using finite difference scheme.
result Efficiently price derivatives with accumulated marks using a novel finite-difference and transform approach.

The paper studies entropy calibration in language models and finds that miscalibration improves slowly with scale.

problem The problem is whether language model entropy calibration improves with scale and if it's possible to calibrate without reducing log loss.
method The authors study a simplified theoretical setting to characterize miscalibration scaling behavior and measure it empirically in language models ranging from 0.5B to 70B parameters.
result The observed scaling behavior of miscalibration is similar to theoretical predictions, indicating slow improvement with scale. The authors also prove theoretically that it is possible to reduce entropy while preserving log loss if access to a black box predicting future entropy is available.

Investigates conditions for risk or utility functionals to be sensitive to large losses.

problem Conditions for risk or utility functionals to be sensitive to large losses.
method Analyzes sensitivity to large losses for various risk and utility functionals.
result Value at Risk and Expected Shortfall generally fail to be sensitive to large losses, but expected utility functionals and certain adjusted versions are sensitive.

Investors optimize liquid staking decisions in LSP and AMM protocols.

problem Optimal timing and allocation in liquid staking protocols.
method Derive optimal allocation strategy and model optimal exit timing using Laplace transforms and free-boundary techniques.
result Optimal stop-loss strategy maximizes expected payoff, influenced by fees and opportunity gains.

We develop a class of non-life reserving models using a stable-1/2 random bridge to simulate the accumulation of paid claims, allowing for an essentially arbitrary choice of a priori distribution for the ultimate loss. Taking an information-based approach to the reserving problem, we derive the process of the condition…

2010-05-04abs ↗pdf ↗

New data accumulation prevents model collapse in generative models.

problem Model collapse in generative models trained on their own outputs.
method Empirical study of language models, diffusion models, and variational autoencoders; analytically tractable framework for linear models.
result Accumulating synthetic data alongside real data avoids model collapse, preventing performance degradation.

Wealth inequality is an important matter for economic theory and policy. Ongoing debates have been discussing recent rise in wealth inequality in connection with recent development of active financial markets around the world. Existing literature on wealth distribution connects the origins of wealth inequality with a v…

2018-09-23abs ↗pdf ↗

Study compares deep learning stock trading strategies in adverse market conditions.

problem Comparing deep learning models for stock trading performance in extreme market downturns.
method Reconstructed three deep learning models and compared their strategies through trading simulations.
result Deep learning models, especially LSTM, can mitigate losses in severe market downturns.

This paper describes a new online convex optimization method which incorporates a family of candidate dynamical models and establishes novel tracking regret bounds that scale with the comparator's deviation from the best dynamical model in this family. Previous online optimization methods are designed to have a total a…

2013-01-07abs ↗pdf ↗

Optimizes neural networks' last layer with closed-form solutions.

problem Optimizing neural networks' last layer with stochastic gradient descent.
method Adapting closed-form last layer optimization for stochastic gradient descent, alternating between backbone and last layer updates.
result The method converges to optimal solutions and outperforms standard SGD and Adam in regression tasks.

Algorithm for online decision making with unknown dynamics and aggregate feedback.

problem Online decision making with unknown dynamics and aggregate bandit feedback.
method Developed an algorithm based on online mirror descent with a self-concordant barrier regularization and an increasing learning rate schedule.
result Achieved O(K)O(\sqrt{K}) regret for the online Markov Decision Process with KK episodes.

Optimal exit strategies of CPT gamblers in unfair gambles

problem Optimal exit strategies of gamblers with CPT preferences in games with strictly negative expected payoffs
method Formulating the problem as an optimal stopping problem on asymmetric random walks, applying geometric transformation, randomized strategies, and changing the decision variable
result The unfair problem in the infinite time horizon has finite values for a wide range of CPT parameter specifications

In this paper, finite type domains with hyperbolic orbit accumulation points are studied. We prove, in case of C2\mathbb{C}^2, it has to be a (global) pseudoconvex domain, after an assumption of boundary regularity. Moreover, one of the applications will realize the classification of domains within this class, precisel…

2013-04-30abs ↗pdf ↗

Full-batch GD achieves generalization close to any stationary point with fewer assumptions.

problem Generalization and excess risk bounds for smooth losses, including non-Lipschitz and nonconvex cases.
method Path-dependent analysis of GD's generalization error, focusing on optimization error and stability.
result Generalization error is tightly bound in terms of optimization error and iteration count, bypassing common assumptions.

Study examines how balancing methods affect model behavior in imbalanced classification problems.

problem Impact of balancing methods on model behavior in imbalanced classification problems.
method Used Explainable Artificial Intelligence tools (variable importance method, partial dependence profile, accumulated local effects) to compare model behavior before and after balancing.
result Significant changes in model behavior due to balancing methods, leading to biased models.

We consider a financial contract that delivers a single cash flow given by the terminal value of a cumulative gains process. The problem of modelling and pricing such an asset and associated derivatives is important, for example, in the determination of optimal insurance claims reserve policies, and in the pricing of r…

2007-10-15abs ↗pdf ↗

Deep neural networks have enabled progress in a wide variety of applications. Growing the size of the neural network typically results in improved accuracy. As model sizes grow, the memory and compute requirements for training these models also increases. We introduce a technique to train deep neural networks using hal…

2017-10-10abs ↗pdf ↗

This paper presents a model of capital accumulation for a large number of heterogenous producer-consumers in an exchange space in which interactions depend on agents' positions. Each agent is described by his production, consumption, stock of capital, as well as the position he occupies in this abstract space. Each age…

2019-09-09abs ↗pdf ↗

Decentralized algorithm for online optimization with long-term constraints.

problem Distributed online optimization with long-term constraints over time-varying graphs.
method Proposed decentralized algorithm with regret and constraint violation bounds.
result Regret and constraint violation upper bounds achieved for various loss functions and feedback types.

The paper enhances preference learning by incorporating response time data.

problem Lack of temporal information in user decision-making for reward model learning.
method Integrates response time alongside binary choice data using the EZ model and Neyman-orthogonal loss functions.
result Response time-augmented approach reduces error rates from exponential to polynomial scaling, improving sample efficiency.

WrapNet optimizes inference for low-resolution neural networks by using 8-bit additions.

problem Reducing multiplication complexity in low-resolution neural networks.
method Adapting neural networks to use low-resolution (8-bit) additions in accumulators, with a cyclic activation layer and overflow penalty regularizer.
result Achieves comparable classification accuracy to 32-bit counterparts using low-resolution additions.

Improves likelihood-free inference by using a new sampling approach to avoid biased data collection.

problem Efficient Bayesian inference without likelihood evaluation for real-world datasets.
method Introduces Neural Proposal (NP) to sample simulation inputs i.i.d. for unbiased posterior inference.
result Demonstrates improved performance, especially for multi-modal posteriors, through experiments.

For any nonorientable closed surface, we determine the minimal dilatation among pseudo-Anosov mapping classes arising from Penner's construction. We deduce that the sequence of minimal Penner dilatations has exactly two accumulation points, in contrast to the case of orientable surfaces where there is only one accumula…

2018-07-24abs ↗pdf ↗

In many large-scale machine learning applications, data are accumulated with time, and thus, an appropriate model should be able to update in an online paradigm. Moreover, as the whole data volume is unknown when constructing the model, it is desired to scan each data item only once with a storage independent with the …

2017-06-08abs ↗pdf ↗

New framework learns labels at both bag and graph levels.

problem Learning multi-label classifiers from multi-graph bags.
method Designing scoring functions and rank-loss objective for graph and bag levels; developing sub-gradient descent algorithm.
result Superior performance over state-of-the-art algorithms.

Paper excludes the lowest energy level as an accumulation point for harmonic maps into analytic manifolds.

problem Analytic manifolds and their harmonic maps energy spectrum.
method Exclusion of the lowest energy level as an accumulation point using obstructions to the gluing of harmonic spheres and Lojasiewicz-estimates.
result Proves that the lowest energy level is not an accumulation point for generic 3-manifolds.

The aim of the present article is to offer a strictly mathematical, statistical treatment of the current account balances in EU and in the Eurozone. Based on Eurostat data, an overview of the total and annual balances is first made for different collections among the EU countries. Then, using the Mathematica technical …

2013-02-19abs ↗pdf ↗

We consider a family of manifolds with a class of degenerating warped product metrics gε=ρ(ε,t)2adt2+ρ(ε,t)2bdsM2g_ε=ρ(ε,t)^{2a}dt^2 +ρ(ε,t)^{2b}ds_M^2, with MM compact, ρρ homogeneous degree one, a1a \le -1 and b>0b > 0. We study the Laplace operator acting on L2L^{2} differential pp-forms and give sharp accumulation rates for eigenvalues n…

2003-11-14abs ↗pdf ↗

In this paper we consider sparse approximation problems, that is, general l0l_0 minimization problems with the l0l_0-"norm" of a vector being a part of constraints or objective function. In particular, we first study the first-order optimality conditions for these problems. We then propose penalty decomposition (PD) me…

2012-05-10abs ↗pdf ↗