Unified framework for interpreting complex regression models with many predictors.
problem Interpreting nonparametric regression models with many predictors.
method Derivative-based approach for existing tools like partial-dependence plots.
result New technique called accumulated total derivative effects plot for complex models.
Financial investment returns lead to growing wealth inequality.
problem Recent rise in wealth inequality in active financial markets.
method Minimalist modelling strategy combining financial markets, wealth accumulation, and compound interest.
result Accumulated financial investment returns cause ever-increasing wealth concentration and inequality.
Improved statistical computation through efficient matrix sampling.
problem Reducing computational cost in large-scale statistical methods.
method Accumulative sub-sampling method to improve statistical efficiency.
result Effective matrix size control improves computational efficiency.
Study robustness of global feature effect explanations in machine learning models.
problem Vulnerability of global feature effect explanations to data and model perturbations.
method Theoretical bounds and experimental evaluation of partial dependence plots and accumulated local effects.
result Quantifies the gap between best and worst-case scenarios of misinterpreting machine learning predictions globally.
Methods estimate physical load and fatigue from wearable data.
problem Estimating physical load and fatigue from wearable data.
method Statistical and machine learning methods based on kurtosis-skewness diagram.
result Different levels of physical activities and fitness can be distinguished from the kurtosis-skewness diagram.
Study compares price limit and circuit breaker effects in stock markets.
problem Preventing rapid and steep price drops in stock exchanges.
method Agent-based model for financial market simulation.
result Price limit and circuit breaker have similar effects under same conditions, but price limit less effective with shorter limit time range.
New data accumulation prevents model collapse in generative models.
problem Model collapse in generative models trained on their own outputs.
method Empirical study of language models, diffusion models, and variational autoencoders; analytically tractable framework for linear models.
result Accumulating synthetic data alongside real data avoids model collapse, preventing performance degradation.
VCoTTA uses variational Bayesian methods to adapt models under continuous domain shifts.
problem Error accumulation in continual test-time adaptation.
method VCoTTA employs variational Bayesian techniques to update a Bayesian Neural Network (BNN) during testing, combining priors from source and teacher models.
result VCoTTA effectively mitigates error accumulation in CTTA, as shown by experimental results on three datasets.
New method analyzes accumulation precision in deep learning networks.
problem Lack of precision analysis for accumulation in deep learning training.
method Statistical approach to analyze partial sum accumulations and derive equations for minimum required bits.
result Reduced accumulation precision can lead to loss of information and degraded network quality.
Model of capital accumulation in a complex exchange space.
problem Capital accumulation dynamics in heterogeneous producer-consumer systems.
method Statistical field theory approach to analyze interactions and dynamics.
result Capital accumulation and agent position in the exchange space are correlated.
Flexible model captures commodity skews with maturity effects.
problem Capturing market skew in commodity futures with maturity effects.
method Non-parametric extension with leverage functions, calibrated using Monte Carlo simulation.
result Model accurately captures market smile and implied variance accumulation.
FetchSGD reduces communication in federated learning with sketching.
problem Communication bottlenecks and convergence issues in federated learning.
method FetchSGD uses Count Sketch to compress and merge model updates efficiently.
result FetchSGD achieves high compression rates and good convergence without sparse client participation.
Accumulated stock returns exhibit tempered skew t-distribution.
problem Analyzing the distribution of stock returns over multiple days.
method Employing a tempered skew t-distribution model.
result Tempered skew t-distribution fits the distribution of accumulated stock returns well.
The paper translates economic models into a field formalism to study capital accumulation and its fluctuations.
problem Understanding capital accumulation and its fluctuations in a complex economic system.
method Developed a field formalism to preserve interactions and microeconomic features, applying it to a microeconomic framework of investors and firms.
result Capital accumulation patterns can emerge at the macro-scale and affect neighboring sectors, leading to permanent fluctuations.
Bias correction needed after deep learning regression training.
problem Systematic error accumulation in deep learning regression models.
method Adjust bias of the machine learning model post-training.
result Bias correction efficiently solves error accumulation.
A2D2E designs optimal evaluations for estimating main effects in black-box models.
problem Sensitivity to OOD evaluations and instability under feature correlation in estimating black-box model effects.
method A2D2E uses D-optimal hypercube designs to minimize main effect estimation variance.
result A2D2E outperforms existing methods, especially under high feature correlation.
This note presents a kind of the strong law of large numbers for an insurance risk caused by a single catastrophic event rather than by an accumulation of independent and identically distributed risks. We derive this result by a large diversification effect resulting from optimal allocation of the risk to many reinsure…
This work addresses the instability in asynchronous data parallel optimization. It does so by introducing a novel distributed optimizer which is able to efficiently optimize a centralized model under communication constraints. The optimizer achieves this by pushing a normalized sequence of first-order gradients to a pa…
Analyzes error sources in global feature effect estimation methods.
problem Unexplored error sources in global feature effect estimation methods.
method Systematic, estimator-level analysis of bias and variance.
result Holdout data is theoretically cleanest, but estimation variance depends on sample size and model characteristics.
Machines, not humans, are the world's dominant knowledge accumulators but humans remain the dominant decision makers. Interpreting and disseminating the knowledge accumulated by machines requires expertise, time, and is prone to failure. The problem of how best to convey accumulated knowledge from computers to humans i…
Unfolding paths in Outer space accumulate on a simplex, not converge.
problem Understanding accumulation points in Outer space.
method Constructing an unfolding path in Outer space.
result Unfolding paths accumulate on a 1-simplex, not converge.
New framework uses simplicial and categorical methods to detect market inconsistencies.
problem Detecting inconsistencies in financial markets using non-measure-preserving transitions.
method Simplicial and categorical formulation of AB type arbitrage in filtered market systems.
result Holonomy along loops reveals global inconsistencies invisible at local levels.
Study of historic stock returns distributions, highlighting asymmetry and outliers.
problem Understanding the asymmetry in accumulated gains and losses in stock returns over time.
method Analyzing decades-long historic distributions of S&P500 returns, comparing gains and losses, using statistical U-tests and fitting log-log scale linearly.
result The mean of de-trended distributions increases linearly with the number of days of accumulation, and the overall skew is negative, indicating heavier tails of losses.
Study examines how balancing methods affect model behavior in imbalanced classification problems.
problem Impact of balancing methods on model behavior in imbalanced classification problems.
method Used Explainable Artificial Intelligence tools (variable importance method, partial dependence profile, accumulated local effects) to compare model behavior before and after balancing.
result Significant changes in model behavior due to balancing methods, leading to biased models.
Extends effect variable concept to finite states for web search evaluation.
problem Finding effect of variant variables in changes of observable variables.
method Theoretical analysis and simultaneous distribution decomposition.
result States of extreme effect variable are minimally affected by variant and highly different in observable variable.
Improves matrix multiplication throughput for asymmetric bit-width operands.
problem Matrix multiplications between asymmetric bit-width operands, especially 8- and 4-bit, are not efficiently handled by existing SIMD instructions.
method Proposes a new SIMD matrix multiplication instruction that uses mixed precision on inputs (8- and 4-bit) and accumulates into 16-bit output, improving throughput.
result Offers 2x improvement in throughput compared to existing symmetric-operand-size instructions, with negligible overflow.
A new method for pricing derivatives using self-exciting dynamics and finite-difference transforms.
problem Pricing derivatives with accumulated marks using a self-exciting marked point process.
method Derive discounted pricing equation as a PIDE, transform to one-dimensional PIDEs, use Laplace/Fourier transform, approximate jump term, solve using finite difference scheme.
result Efficiently price derivatives with accumulated marks using a novel finite-difference and transform approach.
Enhances on-policy RL with past reward statistics and hot-wiring.
problem Challenges of sparse reward signals in on-policy methods.
method Multi-critic supervision and hot-wiring mechanism.
result Improves on-policy learning for sparse reward tasks.
Accumulator module improves reinforcement learning by delaying decisions based on evidence.
problem Incomplete information, limited sensing, and stochastic environments lead to risky decisions.
method Integrates evidence for each action, delays action until confident, using dynamic competition.
result Accumulator module outperforms traditional reinforcement learning methods in a guessing game.
Minimal dilatations found on nonorientable surfaces with two accumulation points.
problem Determining minimal dilatations for nonorientable surfaces.
method Representing dilatations as roots of Alexander polynomials and comparing using skein relation.
result Sequence of minimal Penner dilatations has two accumulation points on nonorientable surfaces.
In this paper, finite type domains with hyperbolic orbit accumulation points are studied. We prove, in case of C2, it has to be a (global) pseudoconvex domain, after an assumption of boundary regularity. Moreover, one of the applications will realize the classification of domains within this class, precisel…
Few-shot network compression improves accuracy with minimal data.
problem High estimation errors from original network during inference.
method Cross distillation, layer-wise knowledge distillation approach.
result Cross distillation significantly improves student network's accuracy with few training instances.
This paper presents a numerical model to solve the problem of cash accumulation strategies for products with an unknown future price, like assets. Stock prices are modeled by a discretized Wiener Process, and by the means of ordinary integrals this Wiener Process will be exactly matched at a preset terminal time. Three…
Finance is about how the continuous stream of news gets incorporated into prices. But not all news have the same impact. Can one distinguish the effects of the Sept. 11, 2001 attack or of the coup against Gorbachev on Aug., 19, 1991 from financial crashes such as Oct. 1987 as well as smaller volatility bursts? Using a …
A new theory quantifies how societies accumulate and diversify their knowledge.
problem Lack of a unified quantitative formalism for understanding societal knowledge accumulation.
method Combines analytical, numerical, and empirical approaches to quantify and predict societal diversification.
result Measurable quantities to predict future societal developments.
Study adds memory effect to Solow-Swan model for more accurate economic growth modeling.
problem Inaccuracies in classical Solow-Swan model in capturing long-term dynamics.
method Introduced fractional calculus with Caputo derivative into Solow-Swan framework.
result Fractional-order model shows significant impact on capital accumulation and stability.
Analyzes multi-day stock returns, showing linear volatility and mean dependence.
problem Linear dependence of volatility and mean in accumulated stock returns.
method Modified Jones-Faddy skew t-distribution analysis.
result Linear dependence of volatility and mean on the number of days of accumulation.
Cryptocurrency and NFT prices are highly correlated, mirroring historical bubbles.
problem Evaluating the wealth effect of cryptocurrency prices on real estate.
method Exploiting metaverse LAND and cryptocurrencies to track correlations and causality.
result Cryptocurrency prices Granger cause NFT LAND prices, similar to historical bubbles.
DANCE method improves large-scale learning efficiency via accumulating sample strategy.
problem Efficiently solving large-scale empirical risk minimization problems.
method Distributed Accumulated Newton Conjugate gradient (DANCE) method with multistage approach.
result The method achieves satisfactory statistical accuracy with fewer passes over data.
Income redistribution is the transfer of income from some individuals to others directly or indirectly by means of social mechanisms, such as taxation, public services and so on. Employing a spatial public goods game, we study the influence of income redistribution on the evolution of cooperation. Two kinds of evolutio…
Unified framework models neural decision-making, improving accuracy.
problem Limitations in modeling neural activity during decision-making.
method Unifying framework based on state-space models with scalable inference.
result Two-dimensional accumulator better captures neural responses.
WrapNet optimizes inference for low-resolution neural networks by using 8-bit additions.
problem Reducing multiplication complexity in low-resolution neural networks.
method Adapting neural networks to use low-resolution (8-bit) additions in accumulators, with a cyclic activation layer and overflow penalty regularizer.
result Achieves comparable classification accuracy to 32-bit counterparts using low-resolution additions.
Improves likelihood-free inference by using a new sampling approach to avoid biased data collection.
problem Efficient Bayesian inference without likelihood evaluation for real-world datasets.
method Introduces Neural Proposal (NP) to sample simulation inputs i.i.d. for unbiased posterior inference.
result Demonstrates improved performance, especially for multi-modal posteriors, through experiments.
Statistical fields model explains capital allocation and accumulation among firms and investors.
problem Understanding capital allocation and accumulation dynamics among firms and investors.
method Applied statistical fields formalism to heterogeneous agents divided into firms and investors.
result Capital accumulation depends on various factors including long-term returns, competition, and stock price volatility.
In many large-scale machine learning applications, data are accumulated with time, and thus, an appropriate model should be able to update in an online paradigm. Moreover, as the whole data volume is unknown when constructing the model, it is desired to scan each data item only once with a storage independent with the …
The paper analyzes the error accumulation in a compositional score-based algorithm for SBI.
problem How to effectively combine multiple observations to improve parameter inference.
method Study of the GAUSS algorithm's compositional score and its mean squared error.
result Established an upper bound on the mean squared error of the compositional score.
Paper excludes the lowest energy level as an accumulation point for harmonic maps into analytic manifolds.
problem Analytic manifolds and their harmonic maps energy spectrum.
method Exclusion of the lowest energy level as an accumulation point using obstructions to the gluing of harmonic spheres and Lojasiewicz-estimates.
result Proves that the lowest energy level is not an accumulation point for generic 3-manifolds.
The aim of the present article is to offer a strictly mathematical, statistical treatment of the current account balances in EU and in the Eurozone. Based on Eurostat data, an overview of the total and annual balances is first made for different collections among the EU countries. Then, using the Mathematica technical …