New approach models individual vitality for better mortality predictions.
problem Limited ability of existing mortality models to capture individual complexity.
method Developed a four-component framework for individual vitality dynamics.
result Demonstrates improved analytical and practical outcomes in life insurance and lifetime decision-making.
Study infinitesimal CR symmetries of accidental CR structures.
problem Accidental CR structures and their infinitesimal CR automorphisms.
method Complete explicit lists of infinitesimal CR automorphisms for specific CR models.
result Explicit generators of infinitesimal CR symmetries in extrinsic holomorphic coordinates.
In the cost per click (CPC) pricing model, an advertiser pays an ad network only when a user clicks on an ad; in turn, the ad network gives a share of that revenue to the publisher where the ad was impressed. Still, advertisers may be unsatisfied with ad networks charging them for "valueless" clicks, or so-called accid…
In this note we discuss the behavior of the Gromov boundaries and limit sets for the surface subgroups of the mapping class group with accidental parabolics constructed by the author and A. Reid in earlier work. Specifically, we show that generically there are no Cannon--Thurston maps from the Gromov boundary to Thurst…
Compact formulas for evaluating insurance policies' risks.
problem Quantifying demographic risk in insurance portfolios.
method Cohort-based approach with market-consistent valuation.
result Formal closed formula for idiosyncratic risk (accidental mortality).
FID misaligns with human judgment due to reliance on ImageNet classes.
problem FID metric's reliance on ImageNet classes causes discrepancies with human evaluation.
method Investigated and visualized the feature space of FID and its relation to ImageNet classes.
result Aligning histograms of Top-N ImageNet classifications can reduce FID without improving quality. New model helps identify suspect footwear from crime scene prints.
problem Identifying a suspect's footwear from crime scene prints among thousands of similar shoes.
method Developed a hierarchical Bayesian model with spatially varying coefficients.
result Improved accuracy and reliability in forensic shoe print analysis.
Study reveals hidden accidental parabolics in complex hyperbolic geometry.
problem Understanding hidden parabolics in complex hyperbolic geometry.
method New technique to show ideal boundary of Ford domain is an infinite-genus handlebody.
result 3-manifold at infinity of Δ4,∞,∞;∞ is the complement of chain link 814. The study bounds the number of quasi-Fuchsian surface subgroups in hyperbolic 3-manifolds.
problem Counting quasi-Fuchsian surface subgroups in finite-volume hyperbolic 3-manifolds.
method Analyzes the number of quasi-Fuchsian surface subgroups of genus at most g in terms of a function of g.
result The number of quasi-Fuchsian surface subgroups is bounded by a function of the form (cg)^{2g}.
Let (ρ_λ)_{λ\in Λ} be a holomorphic family of representations of a finitely generated group G into PSL(2,C), parameterized by a complex manifold Λ. We define a notion of bifurcation current in this context, that is, a positive closed current on Λdescribing the bifurcations of this family of representations in a quantit…
In earlier work, we had shown that Cannon-Thurston maps exist for Kleinian punctured surface groups without accidental parabolics. In this note we prove that pre-images of points are precisely end-points of leaves of the ending lamination whenever the Cannon-Thurston map is not one-to-one. This extends earlier work don…
We consider the problem of learning from sparse and underspecified rewards, where an agent receives a complex input, such as a natural language instruction, and needs to generate a complex response, such as an action sequence, while only receiving binary success-failure feedback. Such success-failure rewards are often …
Recently, a marked Poisson process (MPP) model for life catastrophe risk was proposed in [6]. We provide a justification and further support for the model by considering more general Poisson point processes in the context of extreme value theory (EVT), and basing the choice of model on statistical tests and model compa…
In this study we consider relations between companies in Poland taking into account common branches they belong to. It is clear that companies belonging to the same branch compete for similar customers, so the market induces correlations between them. On the other hand two branches can be related by companies acting in…
We propose a novel neural network embedding approach to model power transmission grids, in which high voltage lines are disconnected and reconnected with one-another from time to time, either accidentally or willfully. We call our architeture LEAP net, for Latent Encoding of Atypical Perturbation. Our method implements…
The safety and resilience of fully autonomous vehicles (AVs) are of significant concern, as exemplified by several headline-making accidents. While AV development today involves verification, validation, and testing, end-to-end assessment of AV systems under accidental faults in realistic driving scenarios has been lar…
Sensor data has been playing an important role in machine learning tasks, complementary to the human-annotated data that is usually rather costly. However, due to systematic or accidental mis-operations, sensor data comes very often with a variety of missing values, resulting in considerable difficulties in the follow-…
Researchers found new dimensions for exceptional Lie group realizations.
problem Determining the lowest dimensions for exceptional Lie group realizations.
method Realized CR structures in dimensions 16 and 24 for E6 and E8. result Discovered new realizations of E6 and E8 in dimensions 16 and 24. A method to control results of gradient descent unsupervised learning in a deep neural network by using evolutionary algorithm is proposed. To process crossover of unsupervisedly trained models, the algorithm evaluates pointwise fitness of individual nodes in neural network. Labeled training data is randomly sampled an…
New method for evaluating LLMs reduces bias in open-ended evaluations.
problem Bias in Elo-based ratings of LLMs due to data redundancies.
method Proposes evaluation as a 3-player game and introduces novel solution concepts.
result Novel method leads to more robust and intuitive ratings.
Progress in machine learning is measured by careful evaluation on problems of outstanding common interest. However, the proliferation of benchmark suites and environments, adversarial attacks, and other complications has diluted the basic evaluation model by overwhelming researchers with choices. Deliberate or accident…
Machine learning simplifies finance, but faces challenges.
problem Adopting machine learning in finance.
method Analyzing challenges in financial services adoption.
result Challenges in finance adoption of ML.
Understanding how funding and 4H context regulate crypto markets.
problem Analyzing the chaotic appearance of financial markets.
method Observing interactions between market context and capital conditions in the 4H timeframe.
result Ranges in crypto markets are strategic positioning by informed participants, not indecision.
Develops a neural model to predict event occurrence and timing.
problem Standard event time models ignore the distinction between event occurrence probability and predicted time.
method Introduces a conditional event time model using a neural network with a binary stochastic layer.
result Shows superior event occurrence and timing predictions on various datasets.
Paper proposes a new trading strategy using corporate event detection from news articles.
problem Predicting stock movements based on corporate events from news articles.
method Bi-level event detection model: low-level for token-level event identification, high-level for article-level event identification.
result The proposed strategy outperforms existing models in stock prediction metrics.
Events are happening in real-world and real-time, which can be planned and organized occasions involving multiple people and objects. Social media platforms publish a lot of text messages containing public events with comprehensive topics. However, mining social events is challenging due to the heterogeneous event elem…
Proposes a method to predict stock movements using fine-grained events from finance news.
problem Lack of specific semantic information in coarse-grained events for stock movement prediction.
method Built a finance event dictionary, extracted fine-grained events, combined with stock trade data, and used distant supervision for training.
result Method outperforms all baselines and shows good generalizability.
ProxiModel extracts high-quality news events from news corpora.
problem Mining high-quality structured event knowledge from noisy news data.
method ProxiModel uses a proximity-network to model event correlation within and across news corpora.
result ProxiModel efficiently and effectively extracts high-quality event descriptors and attributes.
AUC is unreliable in rare event settings but stable with moderate numbers of events.
problem Misleading performance metrics in rare event settings.
method Simulation study varying dataset sizes and event rates.
result AUC is unreliable in rare event settings but stable with moderate numbers of events.
Non-spanning identification of scheduled event risk in option pricing.
problem Separating continuous surface from scheduled jump in option pricing.
method Modeling FOMC decisions, CPI releases, and NFP reports as deterministic-time jumps in risk-neutral option pricing.
result Improves held-out event-spanning pricing with Gaussian and two-component mixture jumps.
New approach predicts event probabilities for better event detection.
problem Class imbalance and inaccurate event detection in time series analysis.
method Regression-based approach to predict probability densities at event locations.
result Regression-based approaches outperform segmentation-based methods.
Study examines HTE estimation from time-to-event data with competing events.
problem Estimating HTEs from time-to-event data with competing events.
method Outcome modeling approach using plug-in estimators for potential outcomes.
result Competing events introduce new challenges for HTE estimation.
CAUSE learns Granger causality from event sequences, outperforming existing methods.
problem Learning Granger causality from complex, interdependent event sequences.
method CAUSE uses a neural point process to capture interdependency and an attribution method to extract Granger causality.
result CAUSE outperforms state-of-the-art methods in inferring inter-type Granger causality.
New method detects events with keywords, adapting to new types.
problem Adapting event detection to new types with predefined sets.
method Feature-based attention mechanism for CNNs.
result Benefits for new type extension and attention mechanism.
The study extends and generalizes a result about quasi Einstein manifolds, proving conditions for Killing vector fields.
problem Characterizing conditions for Killing vector fields in quasi Einstein manifolds.
method Extending and generalizing Cochran's result, proving conditions for Killing vector fields under specific integrals and conformal conditions.
result Conditions for Killing vector fields in quasi Einstein manifolds, including integral identities and global isometry to spheres.
REST framework predicts stock trends by considering stock-specific and related-stock events.
problem Predicting stock trends using event information from news, social media, and discussion boards.
method REST framework addresses two main shortcomings of existing event-driven methods: stock-specific event influence and related-stock event influence.
result REST framework achieves higher investment returns compared to baselines.
GANs improve event generation in physics experiments.
problem Improving statistical precision in event generation.
method Used generative adversarial networks (GANs) to generate events.
result GANs amplify the statistical precision of the training sample.
New deep learning method handles rare and imbalanced events in time series.
problem Challenges in event detection in time series data, especially rare and imbalanced events.
method Supervised regression-based deep learning approach that handles various types of events.
result Superior performance across diverse domains, particularly for rare events and imbalanced datasets.
Combining multiple collider events improves machine learning performance.
problem Improving machine learning for collider physics.
method Study of single-event vs multi-event classifiers under IID assumption.
result Training single-event classifiers is more effective than multi-event classifiers.
The study uses financial events to predict stock market movements.
problem Predicting stock market movements using financial events.
method Combined event extraction method, BERT/ALBERT enhanced event representation, and extended hierarchical attention network.
result Significantly better accuracies and higher simulated returns compared to state-of-the-art models.
Proposes a model for predicting events from event streams.
problem Predicting events like part replacement and failure in manufacturing and teleservice systems.
method Non-parametric prognostic framework using MGCP modulated Poisson processes.
result MGCP prior facilitates sharing of information and analysis of flexible event patterns.
LOBDIF predicts limit order book events using a diffusion model.
problem Predicting the timing and type of events in a dynamic market system.
method LOBDIF uses a diffusion model to learn the complex time-event distribution in limit order book streams.
result LOBDIF significantly outperforms existing methods in real-world data experiments.
Electroencephalography (EEG) during sleep is used by clinicians to evaluate various neurological disorders. In sleep medicine, it is relevant to detect macro-events (> 10s) such as sleep stages, and micro-events (<2s) such as spindles and K-complexes. Annotations of such events require a trained sleep expert, a time co…
Neural network model predicts alternating event-free periods.
problem Dynamic prediction of alternating recurrent events with statistical nuance.
method Developed an online dynamic prediction framework using neural network theory.
result Outstanding performance in predicting alternating recurrent event-free time.
The plausibility of uncommon events and miracles based on testimony of such an event has been much discussed. When analyzing the probabilities involved, it has mostly been assumed that the common events can be taken as data in the calculations. However, we usually have only testimonies for the common events. While this…
New STH distance finds patterns in event timeseries without resampling.
problem Lack of efficient analysis methods for event and state timeseries.
method Define STE-ts, propose STH, leveraging both time and state duration.
result Improved precision and computation time compared to resampled metrics.
Paper tackles event stream outliers using a novel weight function.
problem Learning event streams with unexpected absences or occurrences.
method Temporal point process framework with a novel weight function.
result The proposed method effectively handles both commission and omission outliers.
A fast geometric regularizer improves event camera performance.
problem Event collapse in contrast maximization framework.
method Geometric regularizer to mitigate overfitting.
result State-of-the-art accuracy with reduced computational complexity.