arXiv research

Inspired by trading, this method segments time series efficiently.

This paper presents a simple method for a posteriori (historical) multi-variate multi-stage optimal trading under transaction costs and a diversification constraint. Starting from a given amount of money in some currency, we analyze the stage-wise optimal allocation over a time horizon with potential investments in mul…

We study dynamics of a simulated world with stock and money, driven by the externally given processes which we refer to as sentiments. The considered sentiments influence the buy/sell stock trading attitude, the perceived price uncertainty, and the trading intensity of all or a part of the market participants. We study…

End-to-end framework optimizes constrained trajectories using data-driven methods.

Paper proposes an efficient algorithm for nonnegative binary matrix factorization.

In this paper, we study the trade-offs of different inference approaches for Bayesian matrix factorisation methods, which are commonly used for predicting missing values, and for finding patterns in the data. In particular, we consider Bayesian nonnegative variants of matrix factorisation and tri-factorisation, and com…

Bayesian approach improves ODE solution accuracy.

Proving the existence of speculative financial bubbles even a posteriori has proven exceedingly difficult so anticipating a speculative bubble ex ante would at first seem an impossible task. Still as illustrated by the recent turmoil in financial markets initiated by the so called subprime crisis there is clearly an ur…

We introduce an approximate search algorithm for fast maximum a posteriori probability estimation in probabilistic programs, which we call Bayesian ascent Monte Carlo (BaMC). Probabilistic programs represent probabilistic models with varying number of mutually dependent finite, countable, and continuous random variable…

For the numerical solution of the American option valuation problem, we provide a script written in MATLAB implementing an explicit finite difference scheme. Our main contribute is the definition of a posteriori error estimator for the American options pricing which is based on Richardson's extrapolation theory. This e…

MARS automatically selects tensor decomposition ranks, improving performance in neural network tasks.

The paper reinterprets Bayesian priors and posteriors using Riemannian manifolds.

We solve image inverse problems using a flow-based noise model.

Study how noisy labels affect semi-supervised learning.

New method for MAP inference using Benders' decomposition.

New method reduces GP bandit complexity while maintaining good performance.

Study MAP estimation for PnP priors with SGD, proving convergence and demonstrating practical applications.

In this paper, we consider the problem of recovering a graph that represents the statistical data dependency among nodes for a set of data samples generated by nodes, which provides the basic structure to perform an inference task, such as MAP (maximum a posteriori). This problem is referred to as structure learning. W…

New taxonomy and improved solvers for discrete energy minimization.

Bayesian approach fixes overconfidence in ReLU networks, even slightly.

Gaussian process models improve MJO predictions with better uncertainty quantification.

A-GPS learns to generate Pareto sets efficiently with user preferences.

Study characterizes training and test risks for MAP regression with Gaussian priors.

Deep equilibrium models estimate latent variables from data.

We present a theoretical analysis of Maximum a Posteriori (MAP) sequence estimation for binary symmetric hidden Markov processes. We reduce the MAP estimation to the energy minimization of an appropriately defined Ising spin model, and focus on the performance of MAP as characterized by its accuracy and the number of s…

Study on parameter dynamics in exponential families under closed-loop learning.

This paper presents a new approach, called perturb-max, for high-dimensional statistical inference that is based on applying random perturbations followed by optimization. This framework injects randomness to maximum a-posteriori (MAP) predictors by randomly perturbing the potential function for the input. A classic re…

Convex optimization method infers latent structure in random dot product graphs.

New algorithm scales NDPP learning and inference to large item collections.

Generative models improve image restoration from unknown transformations.

We consider the smoothing probabilities of hidden Markov model (HMM). We show that under fairly general conditions for HMM, the exponential forgetting still holds, and the smoothing probabilities can be well approximated with the ones of double sided HMM. This makes it possible to use ergodic theorems. As an applicatio…

Since the early days of digital communication, Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) have now been routinely used in speech recognition, processing of natural languages, images, and in bioinformatics. An HMM $(X_i,Y_i)_{i\ge 1}$ assumes observations $X_1,X_2,...$ to be conditionally independent given an "explanotary" Markov proc…

The study compares Bayesian and frequentist approaches in deep learning.

This paper reviews recent advances in Bayesian nonparametric techniques for constructing and performing inference in infinite hidden Markov models. We focus on variants of Bayesian nonparametric hidden Markov models that enhance a posteriori state-persistence in particular. This paper also introduces a new Bayesian non…

SNEPPPs use squared neural networks to efficiently model Poisson point processes.

Since the early days of digital communication, hidden Markov models (HMMs) have now been also routinely used in speech recognition, processing of natural languages, images, and in bioinformatics. In an HMM $(X_i,Y_i)_{i\ge 1}$, observations $X_1,X_2,...$ are assumed to be conditionally independent given an ``explanator…

CMDNet simplifies MAP detection for large systems with probabilistic relaxation.

We present a novel approach for training deep neural networks in a Bayesian way. Classical, i.e. non-Bayesian, deep learning has two major drawbacks both originating from the fact that network parameters are considered to be deterministic. First, model uncertainty cannot be measured thus limiting the use of deep learni…

A method learns matrix factorization from diverse matrices and applies the knowledge to unseen matrices.

In supervised binary hashing, one wants to learn a function that maps a high-dimensional feature vector to a vector of binary codes, for application to fast image retrieval. This typically results in a difficult optimization problem, nonconvex and nonsmooth, because of the discrete variables involved. Much work has sim…

Approximations of loopy belief propagation, including expectation propagation and approximate message passing, have attracted considerable attention for probabilistic inference problems. This paper proposes and analyzes a generalization of Opper and Winther's expectation consistent (EC) approximate inference method. Th…

This paper addresses the estimation of parameters of a Bayesian network from incomplete data. The task is usually tackled by running the Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm several times in order to obtain a high log-likelihood estimate. We argue that choosing the maximum log-likelihood estimate (as well as the max…

Generalized additive models (GAMs) are a widely used class of models of interest to statisticians as they provide a flexible way to design interpretable models of data beyond linear models. We here propose a scalable and well-calibrated Bayesian treatment of GAMs using Gaussian processes (GPs) and leveraging recent adv…

We present a new proximal bundle method for Maximum-A-Posteriori (MAP) inference in structured energy minimization problems. The method optimizes a Lagrangean relaxation of the original energy minimization problem using a multi plane block-coordinate Frank-Wolfe method that takes advantage of the specific structure of …

We consider the problem of approximate joint triangularization of a set of noisy jointly diagonalizable real matrices. Approximate joint triangularizers are commonly used in the estimation of the joint eigenstructure of a set of matrices, with applications in signal processing, linear algebra, and tensor decomposition.…

In this paper we relate the partition function to the max-statistics of random variables. In particular, we provide a novel framework for approximating and bounding the partition function using MAP inference on randomly perturbed models. As a result, we can use efficient MAP solvers such as graph-cuts to evaluate the c…

This work clarifies the role of inference types in planning.

Develops a method to infer partial rankings from sparse comparisons.