A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Worst-case risk measures refer to the calculation of the largest value for risk measures when only partial information of the underlying distribution is available. For the popular risk measures such as Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR), it is now known that their worst-case counterparts can be ev…
We solve robust optimization problem and show the example of the market model for which the worst case measure is not a martingale measure. In our model the instantaneous interest rate is determined by the Hull-White model and the investor employs the HARA utility to measure his satisfaction.To protect against the mode…
Adversarial robustness research primarily focuses on L_p perturbations, and most defenses are developed with identical training-time and test-time adversaries. However, in real-world applications developers are unlikely to have access to the full range of attacks or corruptions their system will face. Furthermore, wors…
It is well known that Sparse PCA (Sparse Principal Component Analysis) is NP-hard to solve exactly on worst-case instances. What is the complexity of solving Sparse PCA approximately? Our contributions include: 1) a simple and efficient algorithm that achieves an n−1/3-approximation; 2) NP-hardness of approximatio…
Worst-case bounds on the expected shortfall risk given only limited information on the distribution of the random variables has been studied extensively in the literature. In this paper, we develop a new worst-case bound on the expected shortfall when the univariate marginals are known exactly and additional expert inf…
New algorithms optimize spectral risk measures, improving interpolation between average and worst-case performance.
problem Optimizing spectral risk measures for learning systems.
method Developed stochastic algorithms to optimize spectral risk measures by characterizing their subdifferential and addressing challenges like biasedness of subgradient estimates and non-smoothness.
result Our approach outperforms out-of-the-box stochastic subgradient and dual averaging methods in optimizing spectral risk measures.
A new method is proposed to compute connectivity measures on multivariate time series with gaps. Rather than removing or filling the gaps, the rows of the joint data matrix containing empty entries are removed and the calculations are done on the remainder matrix. The method, called measure adapted gap removal (MAGR), …
We study realizable continual linear regression under random task orderings, a common setting for developing continual learning theory. In this setup, the worst-case expected loss after k learning iterations admits a lower bound of Ω(1/k). However, prior work using an unregularized scheme has only established an up…
Quantification of risk positions under model uncertainty is of crucial importance from both viewpoints of external regulation and internal management. The concept of model uncertainty, sometimes also referred to as model ambiguity. Although we know the family of models, we cannot precisely decide which one to use. Give…
Study online learning in MDPs with aggregate bandit feedback, achieving low regret in both stochastic and adversarial settings.
problem Online learning in finite-horizon episodic MDPs with aggregate bandit feedback.
method Best-of-both-worlds (BOBW) algorithms using FTRL over occupancy measures, self-bounding techniques, and new loss estimators.
result First BOBW algorithms for episodic tabular MDPs with aggregate bandit feedback achieving O(logT) regret in stochastic and O(T) regret in adversarial settings.
In the presence of model risk, it is well-established to replace classical expected values by worst-case expectations over all models within a fixed radius from a given reference model. This is the "robustness" approach. We show that previous methods for measuring this radius, e.g. relative entropy or polynomial diverg…
By treating the financial market as a thermodynamic system, we establish a one-to-one correspondence between thermodynamic variables and economic quantities. Measured by the expected loss under the worst-case scenario, financial risk caused by model uncertainty is regarded as a result of the interaction between financi…