We examine how the structure of the world trade network has been shaped by globalization and recessions over the last 40 years. We show that by treating the world trade network as an evolving system, theory predicts the trade network is more sensitive to evolutionary shocks and recovers more slowly from them now than i…
On-device research index
arXiv research
A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
168,695 papers · 148 categories
Trend · papers per month
48 results for “World Trade Network”
Analysis shows preference for Chinese yuan in global trade network.
problem Analyzing the preference of countries to trade in US dollars or Chinese yuan.
method Mathematical analysis of world trade network using Ising spin interactions.
result Majority of countries prefer trading in Chinese yuan due to network structure.
Ecological systems have a high level of complexity combined with stability and rich biodiversity. Recently, the analysis of their properties and evolution has been pushed forward on a basis of concept of mutualistic networks that provides a detailed understanding of their features being linked to a high nestedness of t…
Model shows worldwide trade crises can be localized or global, depending on trade balance.
problem Understanding and predicting worldwide trade crises.
method Modeling worldwide trade network using Google matrix analysis and bankruptcy threshold.
result Crisis contagion is localized for high trade balance, global for low trade balance.
The International Trade Networkq-fin.GN
Bilateral trade relationships in the international level between pairs of countries in the world give rise to the notion of the International Trade Network (ITN). This network has attracted the attention of network researchers as it serves as an excellent example of the weighted networks, the link weight being defined …
The large-scale organization of the world economies is exhibiting increasingly levels of local heterogeneity and global interdependency. Understanding the relation between local and global features calls for analytical tools able to uncover the global emerging organization of the international trade network. Here we an…
In this paper, we investigate the statistical features of the weighted international-trade network. By finding the maximum weight spanning trees for this network we make the extraction of the truly relevant connections forming the network's backbone. We discuss the role of large-sized countries (strongest economies) in…
Using the United Nations Commodity Trade Statistics Database [http://comtrade.un.org/db/] we construct the Google matrix of the world trade network and analyze its properties for various trade commodities for all countries and all available years from 1962 to 2009. The trade flows on this network are classified with th…
Using the United Nations COMTRADE database \cite{comtrade} we construct the Google matrix of multiproduct world trade between the UN countries and analyze the properties of trade flows on this network for years 1962 - 2010. This construction, based on Markov chains, treats all countries on equal democratic grounds …
Study reveals trade dynamics in dry bulk shipping networks, highlighting their randomness and periodic changes.
problem Understanding the randomness and periodic changes in dry bulk shipping networks.
method Analysis of micro-level trade flow data from 2015 to 2023, focusing on grain, coal, and iron ore networks.
result Dry bulk shipping networks exhibit small-world phenomena and periodic life cycles, influenced by importing ports and global events.
Among the proposed network models, the hidden variable (or good get richer) one is particularly interesting, even if an explicit empirical test of its hypotheses has not yet been performed on a real network. Here we provide the first empirical test of this mechanism on the world trade web, the network defined by the tr…
This paper studies the topological properties of the World Trade Web (WTW) and its evolution over time by employing a weighted network analysis. We show that the WTW, viewed as a weighted network, displays statistical features that are very different from those obtained by using a traditional binary-network approach. I…
Structure and Evolution of the World Trade Networkphysics.soc-ph
The \emph{World Trade Web} (WTW), the network defined by the international import/export trade relationships, has been recently shown to display some important topological properties which are tightly related to the Gross Domestic Product of world countries. While our previous analysis focused on the static, undirected…
In this note we study the bilateral merchandise trade flows between 186 countries over the 1948-2005 period using data from the International Monetary Fund. We use Pajek to identify network structure and behavior across thresholds and over time. In particular, we focus on the evolution of trade "islands" in the a world…
We address the problem of gauging the influence exerted by a given country on the global trade market from the viewpoint of complex networks. In particular, we apply the PWP method for computing indirect influences on the world trade network.
Here, we present the World Trade Atlas 1870-2013, a collection of annual world trade maps in which distance combines economic size and the different dimensions that affect international trade beyond mere geography. Trade distances, which are based on a gravity model predicting the existence of significant trade channel…
Model predicts majority of countries will prefer BRI over USD by 2020.
problem Predicting currency preferences in global trade networks.
method Opinion formation model based on UN Comtrade database, Monte Carlo simulations.
result By 2020, majority of countries prefer BRI over USD.
A network analysis of the global energy market: an insight on the entanglement between crude oil and the world economyphysics.soc-ph
One major hurdle in the road toward a low carbon economy is the present entanglement of developed economies with oil. This tight relationship is mirrored in the correlation between most of economic indicators with oil price. This paper addresses the role of oil compared to the other three main energy commodities -coal,…
Within the last fifteen years, network theory has been successfully applied both to natural sciences and to socioeconomic disciplines. In particular, bipartite networks have been recognized to provide a particularly insightful representation of many systems, ranging from mutualistic networks in ecology to trade network…
We present an empirical analysis of the network formed by the trade relationships between all world countries, or World Trade Web (WTW). Each (directed) link is weighted by the amount of wealth flowing between two countries, and each country is characterized by the value of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP). By analysin…
Randomizing world trade. I. A binary network analysisphysics.soc-ph
The international trade network (ITN) has received renewed multidisciplinary interest due to recent advances in network theory. However, it is still unclear whether a network approach conveys additional, nontrivial information with respect to traditional international-economics analyses that describe world trade only i…
Study uses Google matrix analysis to show how COVID-19 changed international trade flows.
problem Impact of COVID-19 on international trade patterns.
method Google matrix analysis of World Trade Network (WTN), including PageRank, CheiRank, and reduced Google matrix.
result Significant changes in international trade flows due to the pandemic, affecting export and import balances.
Futures trading is the core of futures business, and it is considered as one of the typical complex systems. To investigate the complexity of futures trading, we employ the analytical method of complex networks. First, we use real trading records from the Shanghai Futures Exchange to construct futures trading networks,…
In self-organizing networks, topology and dynamics coevolve in a continuous feedback, without exogenous driving. The World Trade Network (WTN) is one of the few empirically well documented examples of self-organizing networks: its topology strongly depends on the GDP of world countries, which in turn depends on the str…
LMoE uses LLMs to improve stock trading by selecting experts based on textual and price data.
problem Traditional neural network-based router selection in MoE models is suboptimal and ignores textual data.
method Proposes LLMoE, using LLMs as routers to select experts based on historical price data and stock news.
result LLoM outperforms state-of-the-art MoE models and other deep neural network approaches.
In all empirical-network studies, the observed properties of economic networks are informative only if compared with a well-defined null model that can quantitatively predict the behavior of such properties in constrained graphs. However, predictions of the available null-model methods can be derived analytically only …
Brazil proposes a new BRICS trade currency to dominate international trade.
problem Dominance of BRICS currency in international trade.
method Mathematical model of influence battle between three currencies, using trade flows and weights in global trade.
result By 2012, about 58% of countries preferred trading with the BRICS currency.
Impact of shocks to economies on the efficiency and robustness of the international pesticide trade networksphysics.soc-ph
This study assesses how economic shocks affect the efficiency and robustness of international pesticide trade networks.
problem Economic shocks impact the efficiency and robustness of international pesticide trade networks.
method Simulations were used to quantify efficiency and robustness under different economic shocks. Three strategies were tested: descending, random, and ascending node removal.
result The international pesticide trade networks became more efficient and robust except for clustering coefficient. Import-oriented economies were more vulnerable to shocks.
Trading in Complex Networksq-fin.GN
Global supply networks in agriculture, manufacturing, and services are a defining feature of the modern world. The efficiency and the distribution of surpluses across different parts of these networks depend on choices of intermediaries. This paper conducts price formation experiments with human subjects located in lar…
Detecting spatial homogeneity in the world trade web with Detrended Fluctuation Analysisphysics.data-an
In a spatially embedded network, that is a network where nodes can be uniquely determined in a system of coordinates, links' weights might be affected by metric distances coupling every pair of nodes (dyads). In order to assess to what extent metric distances affect relationships (link's weights) in a spatially embedde…
Achilles predicts Gold vs USD with a profitable trading bot.
problem Accurate and consistent prediction of commodity prices.
method LSTM neural network for minute-by-minute predictions.
result $1623.52 profit in 23 days of testing.
The question is: What does happen to the real-world networks which cause them not to grow permanently? The idea here is that real-world networks have to pay the cost of growth. We investigate the growth and trade-off between value and cost in the networks with cost and preferential attachment together. Since the prefer…
This study analyzes global oil trade networks to assess their efficiency and robustness.
problem Dynamic monitoring and warning of international trade risks in global oil trade.
method Constructing unweighted and weighted global oil trade networks (OTNs) using UN Comtrade data from 1988 to 2017, and applying complex network theories.
result Efficiency of oil flows increases with complexity of OTNs, and weighted efficiency indicators highlight major events.
Achieving international food security requires improved understanding of how international trade networks connect countries around the world through the import-export flows of food commodities. The properties of food trade networks are still poorly documented, especially from a multi-network perspective. In particular,…
Tools of the theory of critical phenomena, namely the scaling analysis and universality, are argued to be applicable to large complex web-like network structures. Using a detailed analysis of the real data of the International Trade Network we argue that the scaled link weight distribution has an approximate log-normal…
The International Trade Network (ITN) is the network formed by trade relationships between world countries. The complex structure of the ITN impacts important economic processes such as globalization, competitiveness, and the propagation of instabilities. Modeling the structure of the ITN in terms of simple macroeconom…
In economic and financial networks, the strength of each node has always an important economic meaning, such as the size of supply and demand, import and export, or financial exposure. Constructing null models of networks matching the observed strengths of all nodes is crucial in order to either detect interesting devi…
Trade networks, across which countries distribute their products, are crucial components of the globalized world economy. Their structure is strongly heterogeneous across products, given the different features of the countries which buy and sell goods. By using a diversified pool of indicators from network science and …
The worldwide trade network has been widely studied through different data sets and network representations with a view to better understanding interactions among countries and products. Here we investigate international trade through the lenses of the single-layer, multiplex, and multi-layer networks. We discuss diffe…
Strength of weak layers in cascading failures on multiplex networks: case of the international trade networkphysics.soc-ph
Many real-world complex systems across natural, social, and economical domains consist of manifold layers to form multiplex networks. The multiple network layers give rise to nonlinear effect for the emergent dynamics of systems. Especially, weak layers that can potentially play significant role in amplifying the vulne…
Trade is a fundamental pillar of economy and a form of social organization. Its empirical characterization at the worldwide scale is represented by the World Trade Web (WTW), the network built upon the trade relationships between the different countries. Several scientific studies have focused on the structural charact…
In this paper, we investigate the mesoscale structure of the World Trade Network. In this framework, a specific role is assumed by short and long-range interactions, and hence by the distance, between countries. Therefore, we identify clusters through a new procedure that exploits Estrada communicability distance and t…
We exploit the symmetry concepts developed in the companion review of this article to introduce a stochastic version of link reversal symmetry, which leads to an improved understanding of the reciprocity of directed networks. We apply our formalism to the international trade network and show that a strong embedding in …
Nestedness has traditionally been used to detect assembly patterns in meta-communities and networks of interacting species. Attempts have also been made to uncover nested structures in international trade, typically represented as bipartite networks in which connections can be established between countries (exporters o…
The World Trade Web (WTW) is a weighted network whose nodes correspond to countries with edge weights reflecting the value of imports and/or exports between countries. In this paper we introduce to this macroeconomic system the notion of extinction analysis, a technique often used in the analysis of ecosystems, for the…
This paper examines how regional trade agreements affect global trade relationships.
problem The relationship between regional trade agreements and global trade purity.
method Defined and decomposed synthesized trade resistance, separated natural and artificial factors, used expectation maximization algorithm to optimize parameters, and quantified trade purity indicator.
result Regional trade agreements contribute to the relative prosperity of EU and NAFTA countries, but weaken the role of trade unions and accelerate multilateral trade liberalization.
The interconnected wealth of nations: Shock propagation on global trade-investment multiplex networksphysics.soc-ph
The increasing integration of world economies, which organize in complex multilayer networks of interactions, is one of the critical factors for the global propagation of economic crises. We adopt the network science approach to quantify shock propagation on the global trade-investment multiplex network. To this aim, w…
We study the topological properties of the multinetwork of commodity-specific trade relations among world countries over the 1992-2003 period, comparing them with those of the aggregate-trade network, known in the literature as the international-trade network (ITN). We show that link-weight distributions of commodity-s…